What is the best course of action for Jarvis

Agreeing with hitman here too. I wouldn't pay him top 5 money either. Of course I say that with the thought of adding "capflation" to the top 5 deals right now. He may indeed make more than someone presently at #4 or #5 with their "older" deal, and I could be ok with that depending on the inflation/capflation calculations. It's been well documented here lately, but also well ignored by some, but it's important to consider IMO. That being said, I think you also have to consider that with Landry, there's a surcharge on that contract given the fact that he brings you alot more than what his stats say. Of course, saying that, he will hopefully give a "hometown" discount too.

 

Just draft Christian McCaffrey and make him a slot receiver. I'm not even kidding.

Juice will get paid....by someone. I'm not sure that Miami will be the place he gets paid. He deserves a big contract. I just don't know if Miami can swing it.

 

5 yrs 60-65 million with 25 guaranteed. Front load as much of it as you can into the next three years. Maybe 4yrs with a 5th year option. 15 1st yr, 15 second, with 15 guaranteed. Then 12m, 10m and 8m with ten Guaranteed maybe 6m and 4m yrs 3 and 4

 

I don't think you can franchise Landry because the cap hit will be around $16 million for 2018
add to the fact that many Dolphin cap numbers go up in 2018,you may have cap hell.
Suh's cap hit is $26 million,
Tannehill's is just shy of $20 million
Maxwell $10 mill
Branch $10 mill
Stills almost $10 mill
Alonso $9.6 mill
Pouncey $9 mill
Wake $8.6 mill
Timmons $8.25 mill
James 5th year option is over $8 million
Not saying it cant be done, but it might just be better
to sign Landry long term so that we don't get hit with a $16 million or so cap hit
when we already have $$$$ tied up.
we're looking at $130 million on 10 players

 

Do it now


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#8, #7, and ?#1

(next you will debate what exactly is "deep", it's always you little guys)

 

I knew Landry had caught a couple over the top, so that was no surprise, but I didn't know he was a south paw, however, getting loose on a CB that made a coverage error doesn't make Landry a deep threat either.

I don't think any of those routes started as go's or fly's, but if you make a mistake he'll make you pay.

 

Landry is just flat out a BADASS. He moves the chains in any situation. He gets open at will and then anything can happen. He will overcome anything that holds him back with work, attitude and determination.

He's going to cost an arm and a leg. But you pay him to keep him as the face of your franchise.

 

#7 shows the full rout he ran. Come on.

 

but those were 2015 highlights!!

 

Yes, but if the CB had played it correctly I'm betting it would have been a sideline out.

However, lets say for the sake of argument that it was a go route, I have no problem with that, it doesn't change the fact that he isn't a deep threat, Bess hit on a couple of those as well, and that didn't make him a deep threat either.

 

That wasn't a CB. It was Byron Jones and he's a FS. He also has 4.3 speed.

Once again proving that Landry is not "slow linebacker" slow. lol

 

"the Safety gave up on the play because, jets", "that wasn't proper CB play", "the route didn't start off as a deep route",

 

That route worked because Byron did a terrible job of coverage, not because landry showed good speed. Landry did not outrun byron at all he was right there with him but byron used terrible technique. Landry faked the in route to get byron to freeze for a second then went up. It was just a good route by landry, a well timed throw by tannehill and bad coverage by the rookie byron. No speed involved.

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So you found a couple plays. Those are extreme rarities for landry and even these don't show that he is fast, they are just well run routes and well timed throws combined with bad coverage by the DB, he is not actually outrunning anybody deep downfild and stretching the defense. Landry does not have very good speed and he is not a deep threat. That's a fact, get over it.

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it's over, johnny

 

I said I think, not that he definitely never ran one. They are so rare it's hard to remember. Doesn't change the fact that he does not have very good speed and he is not a deep threat. Again, get over it. [emoji6]

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4.5 isn't very good speed? Maybe to Usain Bolt and Deion Sanders...

 

That is average speed for an NFL wide receiver. Not what I would call very good speed. Very good is sub 4.5, great is sub 4.4, elite is sub 4.3

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You realize that in this context "average" is a noun and not an adjective, right?

 

Seriously? It can be used as an adjective as well. Stop obsessing over semantics you know exactly what I mean.

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Seriously? That's why I wrote "in this context" and also mentioned adjective and noun. Are you having trouble keeping up again?

In the first two rounds of this years combine there were 47 WR's.

34 of those 47 ran the 40 slower than 4.5

Nearly 73% of those guys run slower than Landry.

 

Ok, you want it to be a noun so you could come up with some statistics.

First of all not all 47 of those WR that went to the combine are going to make it in the NFL, so that will drop down your percentage a good deal probably to around average. I don't really have the time to do the research, but running in the 4.5 range for an NFL WR is really nothing special. You shouldn't say somebody has "very good" speed unless they run a sub 4.5 imho.

For easier reference you could asign a grade scale for NFL WR speed.

Something like this is how I would grade different speeds:

4.59-4.50 = C, 4.49 - 4.40 = B, 4.39 - 4.30 = A, 4.29 - 4.20 = A++



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Landry doesn't have elite speed, that's just a fact but to say he is a slow receiver is also not accurate. Whether you want to use his 40 time or the highlight footage, its apparent that he has enough speed to make defenses pay when there is a miscue and enough football savy to bait teams into that miscue.

Joe Shad is reporting that Landry wants $14 million per and is using the Antonio Brown signing as a measuring stick (discussion starts around the 9 minute mark).



At $14 million he would be in the top 5 salaries for WR, tied with D. Thomas and Dez Bryant and just ahead of TY Hilton. One interesting thing about both Antonio Brown and TY Hilton's contracts is they have a lower percentage of their salaries guaranteed, 27.9% and 16.9% respectively versus the majority of the top WR who have 45-50% guaranteed. What this means is that its easier for a team to dump these contracts down the road making the later years rather meaningless. In TY's case this is meaningful as his annual salary gets healthy bumps in years 4 & 5 of the contract which skew his annual average upwards and may never get realized. Brown's salary is relatively level over the contract so despite having a smaller percentage of it guaranteed it doesn't distort the annual average.

http://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver/

I like Landry and what he brings to the team but I don't think he is a top 5 WR. IMO somewhere in the top 10 is more appropriate so a salary in the $10-$11 million range seem right. However a number of these deals are older and need to be adjusted for increases in the cap so more in the $12-13 million range after adjustments. If the FO is at the lower end of that range and Landry is at $14 million, should they get a deal done this off season? I think so as it would be mutually beneficial for both parties. Landry gets his pay day sooner and also gets the insurance of a big pay day (anything can happen in the NFL, his production can drop off or he could get injured) while the FO gets to pay 2017 rates instead of 2018 ones.

 

If Landry is asking for 14 mil, then I'd let him go to FA, where he'll find out that there are probably no takers at that price and then talk contracts.

 

If they can sign Landry for 14 million this year I'll deliver the pen myself. In two more years that will be what 12-15th receivers are making. That should be done deal.

 

It is simple why they haven't renewed his contract.It is because he wants a lot more money then he is worth.He is a good and maybe a great player but many things are over looked.He doesn't get many touch downs and he is a me first type of player..Look at it.If he cared about the team then why does he keep costing the team stupid 15 yard penalties time and time again and sometimes in the same game.Yes he is good but he at times cost the team more in yardage because of his penalties then he makes .I truly believe the only reason he doesn't already have a new contract is because he wants the money and does not care about the team.Hate to tell you this but he is a so me the money type of player and not a team player.

 

14 million on Laundry is too much and would not pay a penny over 10 and even that is too much for a slot receiver and that's all he is.

 

A elite WR makes the most touch downs on the team which Laundry does not do.Stills is Miamis leading touch down WR even though he catches less passes..I much rather have Stills then Laundry if I had to choose between the two for he makes more touch downs and it is touch downs that win a game not to mention that be cause of players like Stills that gives other players more chances to get open.

 

You are missing the main thing and that is Touch downs which is extremely low for all the catches he has made.I would still rather have a WR like Stills that may have a lot less catches and even yardage with all his touch downs then Laundry and only costing 8 million a year .Why only 8 million and already have a new contract?Because he is a true team player and Laundry who is holding out to make big money because he in truth is not a team player by the prof of all his stupid and uncall for personal penalties that he always have.

 

I'm not missing anything. These guys aren't playing in a vacuum. Have you ever considered that Landry causes others to be open more often due to his skill set? If we had a RB that rushed for 250 yards and no TD's and also had a player rush for 10 yards and 1 TD who would you think had the better game?

There is a reason cherry picking stats will lead to false conclusions. Your post is one of those reasons.

 

The problem is that there's no telling how many TDs Stills will have next year, in '15 he only had 3, and he'll only catch 50% of the balls thrown his way.

Landry is the engine that drives the Miami Dolphins WR corps, he moves the chains, he keeps drives alive, when you NEED someone to make a catch, he's your man, and that is sustainable, you know you'll get that from Landry.

Also, it's not Stills opening things up underneath as much as it is Landry and company opening things up for Stills, Stills is a feast or famine WR who has one trick, speed, and speed WRs are notorious for having up and down production.

 

I disagree. Calvin Johnson had a season where he had 122 catches and only 5 touchdowns. He is an elite wide receiver.

 

Are you paying attention to reality in any way?
First, Landry is the most valuable player on offense, arguably on the team. However you want to rate him as a WR in the league, he balls out in Miami.
Second, Stupid penalties are stupid penalties, Coach Shula woulda had his azz for that, but they come from passion and fire, so I don't hate them as much as most stupid penalties.
Third, I just quit the job I had for the last 8 yrs cuz they wouldn't come up and pay me what I was worth in the market, that's REALITY. Everybody wants to get paid brah, everybody!
Fourth, Landry isn't holding out, hasn't threatened to hold out, isn't going to hold out. So just stop that BS now.

 

No way man. TD's are all that matters. lol

 

If this is the plan, then trade him in this draft. Don't let him walk away for a meager third round pick, when if the Dolphins don't think they can, or are not willing to, find common ground on a contract. I could see Cleveland parting ways with their 33rd and 52nd pick for a player like Jarvis.

Personally, I'd hate it, as I think Jarvis is a great asset to this team. But if we can't (don't want to) pay him, then let's at least use his value to upgrade our team.

If we took Forrest Lamp at 22, and we got those two picks from Cleveland, we could address some important gaps on the team. And it would save us valuable cap space next year and beyond, as Jarvis won't be cheap.

Best case is we are able to strike a mutually beneficial deal. If not, then I hope we don't let him get to a hold out or tag situation next year.

 

Something with him and Tannehill but in NO he was excellent at tracking and was catching like 75% of balls thrown his way despite a ridiculously deep 14 average depth of target. I can't say it was him, or Tanny, or even either. Would have to watch each target in NO and MIA to determine that (ain't got time for dat)

 

There will always be variations and you are taking a low point for Calvin vs. the average for Jarvis (5, 4, 4). Calvin has had 12 3 times, and 16. 8, 9, etc.

And that was at least double covered and sometimes triple covered.



If you want to say Landry is an elite slot receiver, sure. But there are more than 10 WRs that are objectively better, if not even more. Landry is an important part of this team and I would LOVE to keep him around. Him and Stills can form the corp for a few years. Parker developing would be a plus.

But at the right price. And the team apparently has heard his price. PFF put out fantasy rankings for this year. I don't care about PFF nor their actual slotting, but it was the first list on Google.

I've eliminated ones I wouldn't take over Landry (Emanuel Sanders, Crabtree, Davante Adams) and left in some that would be debatable. I elevate Landry because he's a Dolphin, and there is something to be said about a guy that you know.

1 Antonio Brown PIT
2 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG
3 Julio Jones ATL
4 Mike Evans TB
5 A.J. Green CIN
6 Jordy Nelson GB
7 Dez Bryant DAL
8 T.Y. Hilton IND
9 Amari Cooper OAK
10 DeAndre Hopkins HST
11 Michael Thomas NO
12 Sammy Watkins BUF
13 Allen Robinson JAX
14 Keenan Allen SD
15 Alshon Jeffery CHI
16 Brandin Cooks NO
17 Doug Baldwin SEA
18 Demaryius Thomas DEN


21 Julian Edelman NE

23 Jarvis Landry MIA

Where does Jarvis rank? I'd probably move Keenan Allen down as he is't available and his ypc is even worse.

 

Mike Wallce has elite speed how is that working out for him or how did it work out for the team for that matter?

 

Considering his value to Miami, I'd rank Landry in that 10-15 range. I wouldn't put him above any of the top 10 on that list and I have Allen Robinson above him, but I wouldn't put anyone else on that list above him so that would be 12th. There are a few others I'd consider above Landry in a different location, but for this team and this system, I'd have him 12th. So in terms of contract value, I'd be comfortable paying him in the 5-10 range understanding that over the course of the contract it'll average out closer to that 10-20 range, but I'd have reservations about giving him top 5 money.