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2017: Stop deferring the opening kick-off

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by iamtiv, Jan 27, 2017.

  1. iamtiv

    iamtiv Active Member

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    How many times late in the year did our offense get their first possession already trailing in the game?
    I get worried about coaching staffs that don't have their finger on the pulse. Our defense couldn't stop a toddler with a squirt gun and we kept giving the other team the ball to start the game.

    How many times did we score in our first possession starting the second half? Zero?

    Let's be honest: How much are we going to be able to fix our defense in this offseason? Maybe move up 10 spots in the rankings, maybe? We're still going to be in the bottom half of defenses next season. Quit putting them on the field to start the damn game! It's bloody demoralizing!
     
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  2. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    I haven't kept track, but I know that we scored to start the 2nd half vs the Pats at the very least.

    However, I think this is a non issue, you have to kick off to start a half, accepting the opening kick off doesn't make your D any better, lol, combine that with the fact that we usually start slow on O, how many times have we scored on the first drive?

    It's 6 of one and a half dozen of the other imo.
     
  3. StairwayToSeven

    StairwayToSeven New Member

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    I like to defer as the visiting team so that your offense can operate in a quieter environment after halftime (people still in the bathroom lines, getting concessions, not riled up after a long tailgate, disappointed by the halftime show, etc.) rather than open up the offense in a loud, hostile crowd.

    As the home team, I'd pick the same thing, make the other team start offensively with the crowd at your back.

    Agree with Finster though, it's largely a non-issue.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    What's amazing is how many times we actually did kick off to start the game given that most teams prefer to do that: 14 out of 17 games we kicked off to start the game (only games we didn't were Cleveland, 1st Buffalo game and SF).

    In any case, out of those 14 games where we kicked off we gave up a TD 5 times and a FG 2 times and forced the opponent to punt 7 times. That comes to an average of 2.93 points given up on the first drive when we kick off.

    When we received to start the game, it led to an INT once (against Cleveland), a FG against Buffalo and we had to punt against SF. That's 1 point per drive (really small sample size though) when we receive.

    Compare this to the average points per drive for the Dolphins in 2016 of 1.93 and the average points given up per drive of 1.96. Basically, we score 1 fewer point per drive when we receive and give up 1 more point per drive when we kick off, meaning the problem isn't that we kick off.. the problem is that we start slow regardless of what we do!

    And that starting slow problem has been a hallmark of this team for quite awhile.. needs to get fixed next season.
     
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  5. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    I think the worst case of this was the playoff game - Why would you with a limited and injury riddled defense, on the road, give the ball to Big Ben? The crowd is into it. The offense comes out firing with their well prepared scripted plays, and all of a sudden we're down....

    Just wrecks the mindset and momentum of anything. I'd rather get the ball, pound Ajayi, get one first down maybe, and punt....then to give it to them and let them go right down the field. Bad move by Gase there imo.
     
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  6. iamtiv

    iamtiv Active Member

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    Week 17 against New England really pissed me off. That one stung, and then for it to happen against the Steelers a week later really makes me question where Gase's head is.
     
  7. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Always defer. It gives you the chance of getting two drives in a row. It is almost like a free turnover.
     
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  8. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    I disagree, because you're giving the other team a free drive, so it works out. Momentum swings big if you're down 7 right off the bat. As opposed to going to get 3 or a TD yourself.
     
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  9. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I have to go with defer the majority of the time.

    Getting the ball first in the second half, after being able to adjust, is huge. Also, in a lot of cases and like Dupree mentioned, you get the last drive of the half and first drive of the second half. In no way am I saying that it's a sure thing because turnovers, team play, and a myriad of other things can change those scenarios, but I think deferring will, over the long haul, be the best bet.
     
  10. StairwayToSeven

    StairwayToSeven New Member

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    I don't think it was the wrong call against Pittsburgh. It's not like we're a powerhouse on opening drives with Haley's crappy scripted plays. Our 8 opening HOME drives (away results even worse) resulted in 5 punts (three 3-and-outs), 1FG, and 2TD. A sliver over 2 points per drive. In the first meeting Pittsburgh punted on their first drive, while Miami put up a FG.
     
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  11. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    That would be fine if we usually score on the first drive, but we don't, so whats the difference if your going to be down 7 anyway?
     
  12. iamtiv

    iamtiv Active Member

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    I'm not saying to not defer as a regular course of habit, what I'm saying is to take stock of reality and look at your specific situation. The Dolphins D had been a sieve and easily the worse of the 2 units you have as a team. You're starting the game with your foot in the bucket by leading off with your worse unit, worse by a longstretch. Plus, by doing that you're telling your team that you're not aggressive. You're endorsing a 'wait and see how this goes' mindset instead of pressing the gas from the opening gun. If you lose the coin toss, that's different. Literally choosing to give your opponent the opportunity to score first, when your defense is literally the worst D in football (by the end of the season we couldn't stop anyone) is a bad look.
     
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  13. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    if the defense improves, I don't have an issue.
     
  14. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Momentum swings much higher if you score on the final drive and then score on the first drive.

    First score isn't that big of a swing.
     
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  15. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Deferring also gives you the ability to choose the wind.

    Which can be important with a not so terrific kicker........
     
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  16. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    The defense was not the worst in the league.

    The offense was ranked 17th and the defense 18th.

    It seems as if you're going by emotion rather than facts in your posts.
     
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  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah and for this particular question of whether we should receive first or not, points per drive is probably more relevant. The Dolphins offense was ranked 17th in points per drive while the defense was ranked 14th in points per drive against, so if anything it's better to let the defense go out on the field first if you just go by what we on average do per drive.
     
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  18. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Is it really relevant though, because each team kicks off to start a half, so either way you have to deal with it.

    I think it's more team specific, if you tend to start fast on O, then you probably want to receive, otherwise your O is probably more in sync starting the 2nd half, that's the prevailing theory anyway.
     
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  19. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    I am a firm believer of taking the ball first in the 2nd half.
    If you are down it gives you the opportunity to get right back in it and set the pace for the stretch run of the game.
    If you are ahead it gives you the chance to pile on and let them know you aren't letting them back up.

    It's a long game. I don't think the setting early momentum is as important.
     
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  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah.. it's a good question!

    Before I get into how stats might be relevant for answering that question, let me just point out my post was intended to add to danmarino's response to iamtiv's claim about the defense being the "worse" unit. I was just saying that for this particular question using drive stats might be better for measuring how "good" or "bad" different units are because you're talking about what happens on the first drives.


    Now.. whether any stats - drive stats or game stats - really tell you whether deferring is better or not, I'd say it probably depends on the precise relation between your choice of stat for measuring performance and how that changes as a function of score differential (which is closely related to win probability).

    What I mean is.. almost every efficiency stat that correlates well with winning has the interesting property that it tends to get better the higher the win probability (or higher the score differential). So for example, passer rating gets better the more you're ahead and worse the more you're behind.

    Now suppose the RATE of increase as a function of win probability is high for low differentials but low for high differentials. That would suggest you should get ahead first because getting ahead first means you are much more likely to stay ahead for longer in the game. That suggests you should receive first no matter which unit is better because the offense is still more likely to score first.

    But suppose the RATE of increase as a function of win probability is low for low differentials and high for high differentials. Then getting ahead early helps little. What helps most is having the biggest JUMP in score differential, which is more likely to occur if you have 2 offensive drives in a row like 1 at the end of the 1st half and the other at the beginning of the 2nd. Then I could see why it's better to defer.

    So which actually occurs? This is kind of hard to tell because it depends on the stat and it's not symmetric with positive or negative score differential. For example, in 2016 the average passer rating for 40-59% win probability was 89.5. That goes up to 99.8 for 60-79% win probability and then jumps to 118.1 for 80%+ win probability. The difference between the first two is 10.3 while between the second two is 18.3, which fits more with the rate going UP the higher the differential.

    But the opposite is true when you go down haha! 20-39% win probability = 73.2 rating and 0-19% win probability = 64.7 rating. The difference is 16.3 for the first drop and 8.5 for the second. So I can't tell what's better just based on stats (long story short LOL). Good question though.
     
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  21. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    i like the defer, gives our defense a longer rest after halftime.
     
  22. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    And/Or just be good at playing defense.
     
  23. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    When you have a defense missing half its starters against one of the top 3 offenses in football on the road? You take the ball, drive down and take the crowd out of the game early.

    That was a situation we should've taken the ball, I said this in the game thread.
     
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  24. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Yeah, in that particular game I can see your point.
     
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  25. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

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    I would be all for it if it weren't for the fact Miami offense is a slow starter.

    1st quarter: 31st
    2nd quarter: 24th
    3rd quarter: 5th
    4th quarter: 19th
    OT: 2nd

    First half points per game: 8.7
    Second half points per game: 12.8

    Deferring to the 2nd half clearly the right thing to do until this team can learn to score in the first half.
     
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  26. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    I looked at our stats, on our 1st drives of the game, not just opening drives, because we had so few of those, but just our first drive of the game, 2 FGs and 1 TD.

    To open the 2nd half we scored 5 TDs and a FG.

    So it's pretty obvious that it is the smart thing to defer usually.

    The only time we pulled off the end a half, start a half scoring was with MM vs the Pats in the last game, however, even though we left just 28 seconds on the clock to end the half, the Pats sneaked in a FG.

    It's worth noting that MM scored 2 of those 5 TDs in the 3 games he started.
     
  27. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Didn't MM throw an INT in the last seconds of the 1st half?
     
  28. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I just checked, it was the Bills game where MM ended the half with an INT.
     
  29. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    As a personal preference, I always want the ball first on offense. It lets you set the tone early, and as Sick said, even if you don't score, as long as you move the ball with a few first downs, you can pin the other team back with a punt and give them poor starting field position, which could lead to you yourself having good field position to start your second drive.

    I'm also a big believer that these recent Miami teams have been more prone to momentum and emotion than perhaps some other teams in the league. If the score is tied, or we're up, we just seem to play better the entire first half. If we give up an early score, or if things go poorly off the bat, then at least the first quarter, and sometimes the whole first half are just trash, and we have to play comeback in the third quarter. Its been that way since at least the opening game of 2015 at Washington.

    The problem is the combination of the inconsistant offense (largely due to holes in the OL), and the fact that the defense has HUGE issues getting off the field. Those are the problems, and they have to be fixed. The slow start is a symptom of that. However, I believe that choosing to let the other team get the ball first, drive down, and start the game in a 0-7 hole isn't the best way to handle the team due to our recent issues. Game after game, we would get into big holes in the number of plays called and time of possession early. It clearly frustrated both sides of the ball.

    Now, if the defense can improve, and hold the other team to a punt (or even a turnover!) on the first drive, then sure, kicking off first could be a good choice. But thats not who we are right now. And with the big changes that are coming to the front seven before next season, its hard to say that we'll be that way next year too, with likely a lot of new guys in the lineup together.
     
  30. Phins_Fan_87

    Phins_Fan_87 Phins and Heat fan Club Member

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    considering we were a 2nd half team, it really made no sense to receive the ball and go 3and out right away(which imo would have been a better than 50% chance)
     
  31. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    I'm a fan of deferring. Always have been. Getting the ball to start the 2nd half is big when you're trailing, tied, or leading. Gives you a chance to get back into the game, take the lead, or extend a lead to put the pressure on the opponent right away as the game gets closer to crunch time.

    Also, if your defense can get a stop to start the game, you have an even bigger advantage.
     

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