http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ss&mia-ne-17=loss&den-oak-17=win&sd-kc-17=win Select scenarios where we win/lose. The Games of most importance to our chance are color coded down the page.
It shows that the Bills game is HUGE. But even if we lost both with a couple of scenarios were still able to make it. Not likely but many this right would have to happen.
Yeah the good thing about this type of simulation when there are only 2 games left is that as long as you manually select the outcomes for the remaining games of the Dolphins and Broncos, the estimated probabilities of making the playoffs should be approximately correct because the true probabilities (whatever they are) are dominated by the Dolphins' and Broncos' remaining games. As they note, they simulate by randomly selecting a winner for all other games which will normally bias the results (because clearly some games like Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland don't have 50% probability of winning for each team!), but thankfully all those other games for the most part matter if you want to know who we face in the playoffs, not whether we make it or not.
Oh man would I kinda like that fifth seed don't like the idea of going to Pittsburgh to win on the road there. If we can Just win this game against Buffalo things will work out!
So, per that site/page, 11,580 simulations were run, and the Dolphins made it in 100% of those? Craziness, but I like it!
I don't think the simulator is right. The default setting had us beating the Bills and losing to the Pats, yet it still had us with a 100% chance to make the playoffs with Denver winning both games. It also has us inked in as 87% favorites at the #5 slot..which can't be right. Edit- okay, I see what it's doing. If you don't predict the Chiefs, Raiders, etc. then it doesn't count them in the final tally. And since Denver plays the Chiefs, that's how we got to #5. Denver will not win that one though since they can't seem to score at all, so we're likely #6. If the Broncos lose one of their last two games (highly likely) and- - If we go 1-1 in any order (beating the Bills or the Pats), we are at least 86% likely to make the playoffs. - If the Chiefs go 0-2 (or 1-1 with us going 2-0), we have a 52/48 shot at #5. - If we win both and the Chiefs lose both, we are locked as the #5. - If the Chiefs win out and we go 1-1, then we're locked for #6. So we are not Broncos fans since there's no way they win both games!
If we win one of the next two, while Denver loses one of the next two, we're in. 100% If we win our last two games, we're in. 100% If KC wins both of their remaining games, they are no worse than the #5 seed, and might win their division, and even a bye. Should they win both, there is no scenerio where we get the #5 seed, because even should OAK lose both of their final two while we win ours, they have the tiebreaker advantage, and we'd be the #6. If KC beats DEN, then loses to SD in Week 17 while we win both games, then we earn the #5 seed. Unless OAK loses their last two games to also finish 11-5. In that case, KC wins the AFC West, and we're the #6. If we go 1-1, while KC Beats DEN, then beats SD, and DEN goes 2-0, then we're out. As was said, just root for DEN to lose. It makes things a lot easier.
oops my bad guys. duh, my blurb about KC and DEN both winning is impossible. Sorry, was writing while wrangling kids earlier. But the top few are right, lol.
Getting selfish now, but I'd like to see a playoff WIN this year too, so the #5 seed would be a huge step toward that. For that to happen it seems we need KC to drop a game versus Denver or San Diego (and Miami winning out). Division game, who knows how things will go (we just watched a hot Giants team lose a game to the Eagles they should win 80% of the time). Given the early season expectations, a winning season is already a modest success, making the playoffs would be a good year, and a playoff win would be an awesome year!
That was my first thought too- hope for Denver and KC to both go 1-1 so we have a shot at #5. But if Denver wins this week, it also means we're one game from being out of the playoffs completely. So screw Denver...let's root for the safest road to the post-season. Then again, the biggest factor by far is us beating Buffalo. As long as we can walk into their house and steal the W, I really don't care how the rest plays out. Just get us that W for Christmas and all is well.
Could you all imagine basically a bye week before the playoffs?!?!!? Start Doughty or Yates, and Hull for Alonso etc etc....resting week 17 preparing on the afc north team would be unreal.
i think if we clinch tomorrow, a win vs pats would give us 5th seed(other things would have to play out but high % we get 5th seed with 2 more wins.)
Barring the Chiefs going 0-2 we have no shot at a 5 seed. Beat Buff and KC takes care of Den tomm night and we can likely get ready to travel to Pitt.
if chiefs go 1-1 and we go 2-0 we would have a 61% chance of the 5th seed. need to take of business tomorrow first
Ahhh... I think if we win tomm we play the starters maybe a half next week. If Tom Brady's words are true, they won't be coming down to Miami passively. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Article floating around, in short he doesn't want to finish complacent, what's to be playing their best football going in to the playoffs. Thinks it may have hurt them in the past "resting". Hopefully Bill disagrees. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk