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Why You Should Believe in Matt Moore

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 13, 2016.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Guys.. there's some math that can be applied to the problem of how to compare interception percentages when the attempts are unequal (and you want INT% as opposed to INT per-game because Moore started only 25 of 43 games while Cutler and Tannehill started all their games).

    Basically you can do a simulation where you randomly select a certain number of attempts (e.g. 774 out of a total of 2637 if comparing Moore to Tannehill or 774 out of 4491 if comparing Moore to Culter), then for each randomly chosen set you look at INT%. Get a huge number of such samples (I did 1000 samples) and look at the standard deviations of the resulting sample INT% distribution.

    Anyway.. when you do that you get a standard deviation of 0.58% for Cutler and a standard deviation of 0.46% for Tannehill.

    How's that useful? Basically everything within 2 standard deviations of the mean comprises about 95% of all values meaning any values outside that a statistician will generally say that the two numbers are different in a "statistically significant" way.

    Applying that to Cutler vs. Moore where they have INT% of 3.3% and 3.6% respectively, clearly 3.6% lies within the interval from 3.3-2*0.58 = 2.14% to 3.3+2*0.58 = 4.46% so you can't really argue they're different statistically speaking.

    But apply that to Tannehill vs. Moore and you can. The range for Tannehill would be from 2.5-2*0.46 = 1.58% to 2.5+2*0.46 = 3.42%. Well Moore's 3.6% > 3.42% so a statistician would say that even with the smaller number of attempts, Tannehill's INT% is significantly different than that of Moore's.

    Anyway.. just pointing out you can compare even with unequal sample sizes.
     
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  2. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    With Howard back and the LB core getting a little healthier, not to mention the game in Miami - the unit may be a tad more competitive than what we saw in NE in week 2. We're not even the same team anymore.
     
  3. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 Well-Known Member

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    That and they usually have a tough time playing down here. Not saying Miami will, but we usually play them competitively when they come down here.
     
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  4. Sloopy

    Sloopy Member

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    Thanks very much. I figured Tannehill was significantly better. The interesting thing for me, again, is whether the effect Gase had on Cutler in 2015, which was very different from the rest of his career, can be replicated with Moore during these three games.
     
  5. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    Thanks for this, very cool.

    Does this take into account things like bad weather, game situations (last second heaves to end zone and it intercepted etc)

    When you say you took 1000 samples, what do you mean by that? Its interesting stuff.
     
  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It only accounts for unequal sample sizes nothing else.

    Regarding the 1000 samples, each sample is a set of 774 pass plays (or approximately 774), taken either from Tannehill or from Cutler (two different analyses). For each sample you look at the number of INT's and divide by 774, giving you an INT% for that sample.

    Now.. imagine 1000 such samples (1000 such INT percentages). That has a distribution with a mean and standard deviation. It's the standard deviation of that sampling distribution that I used. Hope that makes it clearer?
     
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  7. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    Yes, thank you!
     
  8. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Except for you right? I don't make my mind up about anything right away. Thank you though.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    You were addressing a comment Daddy-O up there made in an attempt to rip into me for my own opinions in this thread. Who else am I supposed to think you're lumping in? If not, I apologize.

    How I do my analysis is a bit different than the average - having worked as a trader for over 6+ years I know better than to roll with the extremes and make snap judgments within a telephone booth.
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2016
  10. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Nothing wrong with basing your opinion on how X is playing during that stretch.

    That's what I've been doing with 17 for 5 years. We had games I was shocked he was getting criticized for AND games I'm shocked people thought were good (stat checkers).

    My problem is I have been very vocal with the apologists, this gets me into discussions and we have hero's popping in knowing half the story and hop on board the clueless train.

    When I think he plays bad? I say it, when I think he plays well? I say it. Pretty straight forward approach. Adam Gase has gotten Ryan on the right track, he's always had the physical ability and Adam has developed the mental part. That's why you saw him light it up 2 weeks ago with a patchwork OL, a Def struggling and a RB who didn't go off. Because he is a different QB.

    His hard work and Adam Gase are the reasons why. Not one of the plethora of excuses used when he was struggling.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  11. Dolphins Dad

    Dolphins Dad Member

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    Aww man! I like that name better! Dang!
     
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  12. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  13. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Don't be a ...rectangle. :lol:

    man that movie is GOAT
     
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  14. Sloopy

    Sloopy Member

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    He's definitely played great over the past eight games. It's interesting, though, that there is no meaningful difference between the way he's played during that period and the way he played in games 4 through 16 in 2014. If he's trending way up right now, then he was also trending way up at the end of 2014.
     
  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I tried to warn you...
     
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  16. Samphin

    Samphin Κακό σκυλί ψόφο δεν έχει

    Welcome To Perfectville sucks.

    That is all.

    Sincerely,
    Me
     
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  17. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And James Walker chimes in with:

     
  18. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I have literally analyzed every snap that qb has taken in 5 years and i mean every last one. So that i know where this places head is anyone care to tell me what games the qb played poorly in from a actual decision making and reads aspect and execution one? Im not talking about things out of the qbs control which i have found that many struggle to separate but the qb didnt execute and was a direct reason this team lost in 2016?

    I welcome examples of particular plays also

    Also know that in 2015 literally half or more of his ints were the direct result of poor coverage reads by the recievers in terms of routes run relative to coverage played ie zone coverage carrying it like its man

    Jordan cameron in particular was a primary offender
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2016
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  19. Dolphins Dad

    Dolphins Dad Member

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    That's what I really like about him. He rarely throws a "WTF kinda throw was that" interception. In fact a good percentage of his picks are on tipped balls.
     
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  20. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Let's see...bad games by him this year?

    I'd have to preface my answer with the consideration that I've watched several games recently, played by other QBs, many times even 'elite' guys, and I've seen just as many off passes, missed seeing open receivers, and staring down receivers that RT usually gets knocked for, so I'd say he didn't have ANY games this year that were poor. He's had a few bad plays in some games, but I don't believe he's had a game that I'd consider "bad" in comparison to normal franchise QB play in the NFL.

    The three worst games, team-wise IMO (Balt, Tenn, Cincy...almost LA until the last 6 minutes), his receivers let him down quite a bit. Not saying all QBs besides Tannnehill have perfect receivers, but it seemed in those games it was glaring (none worse for a single let down than the drop in Seattle though).

    And I agree with you that several of his INTs were not due to him making a bad read/throw last year...nor have several this year.
     
  21. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    3rd pick vs baltimore looks like a wtf one...but what it really was is a lack of eye discipline in his drop allowing the under corner to read his eyes and drop underneath the ball...mental fatigue play...qb had checked out mentally at that point

    Lost his eye and head discipline...that is something he can tend to do when a game gets out of hand and hes chasing the scoreboard...gets sped up

    Very rarely does he make a wrong read in terms of where he goes with the football...coverage dictates

    I bet ya i can find at least 5 bad decisions or reads on matt moores tape tomorrow or 5 brain farts either with the blitz id or the coverage played or the leverage thrown into

    I know im gonna get some scattershot underneath accuracy if gase gives him short passing game stuff asking him to make correct pre snap reads and some sketchy eye discipline in his drops

    Gase cant change those stripes
     
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  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That has to be air yards per completion because Moore's career Y/A is 7.0 and I'm guessing you can't have a higher air yards per attempt than yards per attempt haha! ..unless ESPN is using a different definition than I'm used to.

    But yeah he has a high Air Y/A. He's 4th on the list of QB's in 2011 that have at least 1000 Air Y/A for example (Moore's Air Y/A is 4.6 in 2011):
    https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2011/

    But that link does show you something a bit disturbing. Look at Moore's % of Air Yards. It's 63.9%, and if you compare that to QB's with at least 1000 air yards, that's really on the high end. That means Moore throws passes that prevent the receiver from getting high yards after catch!.. which is probably the downside of Moore's high Air Y/A stat.
     
  23. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Or maybe that's air yards from where he throws, not from the LOS.
     
  24. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Cincinatti first half is his worse half of football all season...he had a chance to make some plays there that he didnt make good on

    After that in that game he was fed to the wolves by his right tackle play and guard play...atkins and carlos dunlap murdered us

    The only thing anyone who analyzes qb play should have done with that tennessee tape was burn it in a burn barrel...that one was completely out of his control

    Baltimore he threw a ball too far inside to landry his 3rd progression on a mid level crosser where the announcer called him late...nope...he was working the top side stills and another i think flats and he read the coverage right knowing that landry must clear the middle drop lb level mosley and so as he goes to throw a should be front shoulder lead he gets hit front side impeding his lateral shoulder and hip torque and making the ball take a flat straight line in the process...he owns it but that wasnt a qb is late thing...and his feet were as active as you could ever ask for in tbe process in terms of pivoting to progressions and keeping them active and he flowed towards his progressions in tbe process like hes suppose to

    The first int in that game given the short 28 yard field is a 3 step hitch where the qb basically has only a quick pre and post snap id as he takes the snap of the middle safety location...he id'd webb on the opposite hash pre snap and early post he was still inside the hashes he then given its a 3 step with a hitch on a short field which is field predicated turns in his drop to his intentions cause you know they dont throw those things blind and the converted corner to safety somehow comes from tbe play side hash late in his drop and virtually on the release even and makes a rediculous range play to get the pick...three things played into that. The actual play call relative to the drop on tbe short field the fact that the safety on the short field could basically take a flat across angle to the ball and the safety webb making a rediculous range maybe the most rangy play by a safety we have seen all year

    What didnt play into it was a qb mistake...that was the correct read the correct safety id in terms of hash and location and the correct placement
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2016
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  25. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    He's my dude...has been since they drafted him...so I'm a bit partial. Glad to see somebody I trust's analysis matching up with my non-expert eyes.
     
  26. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Camerons soft at the catch point and at tbe top of his routes...i stopped counting how many one on ones he loses where miami set him up to win and he didnt

    Plus his coverage reads were always suspect...that said this teams needs a seam and red zone iso/win option tight end to take the offense to another level

    And by another level i mean top shelf one...all the other pieces are there as long as dvp plays the alpha which i think is what he will be in the end...he has all the tools

    Miami has basically 4 potential top 10 at their position players in house that can carry us for the future...tannehill, dvp, x howard, tunsil

    5 if you count ajayi who sets a tone this o line needs but he has some holes in his game right now
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah.. it's not easy to find out exactly what they mean, but I think I did find it's not what I suggested: "air yards per completion". Note the "Inside the Numbers" section here:
    http://www.espn.com/nfl/preview12/team/_/name/mia

    It says Moore in 2011 had 9.9 air yards per attempt (ESPN's definition) and 4.3 YAC. Assuming 4.3 YAC is the same "yards after catch" we all know, then it can't be "air yards per completion" because Moore's Y/C was 11.9 and 11.9-4.3 = 7.6, which isn't 9.9.

    OK.. that rules out my suggestion. So either it's what you say OR the other possibility is they really mean "air yards per attempt" literally, even counting air yards from LOS for incompletions.

    Who knows.. I can't find the answer that easily (maybe ESPN wants to hide it unless you subscribe?? haha).
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2016
  28. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Eventually also we are gonna go back to that no huddle tempo and torch people

    Gase pulled the reigns on that cause tanny spent half his time the first 5 weeks getting guys lined up pre snap and not verifying protections and iding the coverages played

    I have no doubts 2017 we will see it...a year in the system for everyone across the board is going to do wonders
     
  29. Dolphins Dad

    Dolphins Dad Member

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    Interesting that nobody has said the offense really took off when the human turnstile brothers, Turner and Thomas were cut.
     
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  30. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    He was atrocious vs the Bengals. The worst QB performance I have ever seen live.

    Beyond that you are right...he has never really been one to put up a lot of horrible games in his career.

    By my count he has had 2 horrible game 1 bad games 6 "tale of 2 halves games" 1 good game and 3 exceptional games thats a good season.
     
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  31. Sloopy

    Sloopy Member

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    I'd say that was a coincidence. The Dolphins enjoyed a +1.5 turnover margin per game during the next six games (the win streak), a figure that would've led the league in 2015.
     
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  32. Dolphins Dad

    Dolphins Dad Member

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    If Moore stinks the place up, do the Dolphins fan start chanting "Ryan, Ryan"?
     
  33. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Nope, because it would be just as ignorant and silly as the ones calling for Moore. Matt's our guy for this playoff run. I am not going to turn on him no matter what.....tough spot for him, hoping for the best. Hoping he shakes off a little rust and is part of the winning formula going forward.
     
  34. NyPhinfan

    NyPhinfan Season Ticket Holder

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    Time for everyone to get behind Matt Moore and more importantly this team. All we have screamed about is wanting to play meaningful games in Dec and making the playoffs. The time is now for it to happen. It wont be easy and might even be ugly at times but we have to go with what we got and make it work
     
  35. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Totally agree. And if they manage to fight their way into the playoffs, it will be because they earned it.

    Edit: On a side note, not only do we have to root for the Uncle Eds to lose, we also should be pulling for the Traiders to lose...it'd be gravy, of course, but it would be nice to finish with the 5 spot and have to go to Hou or Ten instead of Pittsburgh in all that snow they'll likely have. Maybe I'm just greedy...'cuz if they go to Houston, I WILL be there.
     
  36. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    bolgna sandwiches...
     
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  37. P h i N s A N i T y

    P h i N s A N i T y My Porpoise in Life

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    I feel it is important to note the following:
    A: how tough Tannehill is.
    B: a sprain is a sprain.
    C: the wildcard round is 4 weeks after the sprain, and especially....
    D: Tannehill IS NOT on IR.
     
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  38. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    "TJ!" "TJ!" "TJ!"

    However, it would be a silly thing to chant. TJ Yates is not going to do better than Moore.
     
  39. Dolphins Dad

    Dolphins Dad Member

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    Oscar Mayer with cheese and mustard. YESSSSS!
     
  40. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    L M F A O

    Keyfin with the prediction of the decade!!
     

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