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The Possibilities of Miami's First Pick

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Fin Fan In Cali, Nov 30, 2007.

  1. Fin Fan In Cali

    Fin Fan In Cali Dolphin fan since 1970 Luxury Box

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  2. quelonio

    quelonio Season Ticket Holder

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    I really hope those rumours of the dallas interest are true... I personally think Marion Barber is a heck of a RB and that they don't need McFadden. But if they are true, I would be more than happy to take as many picks as I can from them
     
  3. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If Miami keeps the pick the only way I can see them going is Dorsey or Chris Long unless Calais Campbell comes out and just blows people away in his workouts. McFadden IMO would just be a huge waste as good as he is, and I don't think Jake Long is worthy of the top pick.
     
  4. TiP54

    TiP54 Bad Reputation

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    The year theres noboy SPECIAL comming out of college, we get the first overall.
    I say we trade it.
    Unless Dolphins have an eye on somobdy who will definetly be gone in top 15....
    Than just do a double trade on draft day.
    Im not sure if boys will give up both first picks.
    But heck..id take the 31st and their 2nd and thrid.
     
  5. Muck

    Muck Throwback Uniform Crusader Retired Administrator

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    You hate to have the #1 pick and trade it for a bunch of picks at the end of each round. But, you also have to consider......at least for a second......the possibility of using some of those picks to trade back up and get some of the more elite players.

    The problem with Armando's example is that he is mistaken on the draft chart. That bundle of picks, even if Dallas falls to 24 and Cleveland to 16, leaves Dallas about a mid-second round pick short of evening the deal. And that's not even taking into account the devaluation of future picks relative to present-day picks.

    The reality is, Dallas doesn't have the ammo to move up to #1. Unless they're willing to trade their entire draft and most of next year's. Or multiple future #1's. More likely, they'd try and pull an Armando-esque deal with the #3 or #4 team.

    The #4 pick could be had with both #1's and the #1 next year, assuming CLE remained 24th and DAL 31st. The #3 pick you've roughly got to come up with another 1st rounder.

    I think someone close to us, like Oakland, would be more likely to move up with us. Especially if STL, with Steven Jackson, ended up #1.
     
  6. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 Member

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    I'm sorry, but that statement is the EXACT reason why u are not a GM. Give me a break . . . 31st, 2nd and third? If the Cowboys gave up both picks and their first from next year . . . . IT STILL wouldn't be enuff.

    And to say nobody special comming out is a ridiculous statement. Mcfadden is the truth . . . maybe not AS talented as AP, but he is up there, except he isn't injured nearly as much. And Matt Ryan is a prototype QB for the NFL, he can make all the throws. We have the #1 overall . . . we have to treat it like that . . . and you have to take the most talented guy out there.
     
  7. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 Member

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    It could work with Dallas,

    1, 1, 2, 3, 1 from next year . . . . I would take that . . . even if we are losing according to the trade value chart. U gotta remember, if we do that . . . . we get 3 players in the top 32 . . . Plus we would have 2 additional seconds and 2 thirds this year . . . . plus 2 #1's next year. I mean if u can get more, u do it . . . . but that would be the floor, and the ceiling being like u suggested.
     
  8. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    The only players I can think of that are truly worthy of the #1 pick in this draft are Darren McFadden, Glenn Dorsey, and Chris Long. We don't need McFadden, so that leaves Dorsey and Long. I think Dorsey is better for this team long-term, so I say Dorsey.

    Calais Campbell is a 2nd rounder, IMO. (I don't care where the mock drafts place him. Campbell takes entire series off, and has never played to his potential.) If we truly think he's the BPA when San Diego's 2nd round pick comes up, nab him, sure, why not? Otherwise, no thanks.

    We should put the fear of Mueller in Atlanta and Dallas by making them think we'll take McFadden or Brohm. I would rather trade with Atlanta, since they can send us DeAngelo Hall, an extra 2nd rounder, and their 1st round pick should still be high enough to land Dorsey for us.
     
  9. SCall13

    SCall13 ThePhins QB

    Right on. I'd jump all over that trade. That is A LOT of young talent and a lot of potential in two drafts. That would be a nice core of players to have in only two drafts. Not to mention any other moves we might make in the mean time.
     
  10. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 Member

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    Campbell needs another year of school, and I think he will actually return to Miami after this dismal season . . . . Kenny Phillips may as well. I doubt either one wants to leave on such a bad note . . . tho Kenny is still probably top 15 . . . but both can become top 10 with solid senior seasons.
     
  11. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    Are you kidding me? McFadden, Dorsey and Chris Long are all superlative talents - all 3 of them are serious impact players and represent a serious upgrade in talent. I really want to hear your justification for the "nobody special" comment.
     
  12. SCall13

    SCall13 ThePhins QB

    I don't know about Campbell being a second rounder. But there is no way I'd use the top pick on him. Mid-first is more realistic. If we were able to move down and grab the two picks from Dallas, and Campbell was still around in the middle of the round (very doubtful) then I wouldn't hesitate to take him.
     
  13. SCall13

    SCall13 ThePhins QB

    Yeah me too. This draft is loaded with a lot of instant impact players on both sides of the ball.
     
  14. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    Based on what I've seen of him, a 2nd round grade is entirely appropriate. He hasn't realized enough of his potential to truly be considered 1st round talent, but the potential IS there.

    I wouldn't take him at #1 or #32 (which is now a 2nd round pick; thanks, New England!) but I would take him with San Diego's 2nd round pick. No higher than that. He hasn't shown he deserves it.
     
  15. Texphinphan

    Texphinphan Season Ticket Holder

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    would someone please list what picks we have for next years draft.
    Thanks
    Texphinphan
     
  16. TiP54

    TiP54 Bad Reputation

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    Okay.
    I might be wrong.
    I didin't pay as much attention to the college football season this year, as I did before.
    But it's just seems that in the years before, everybody was tlaking about the draftby mid october!
    Vince Young, Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, Tedd Ginn, Mario Williams.
    ANd the only people i really heard about it Dorsey and mcfadden.
     
  17. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    1 1st round pick
    2 2nd round picks (Chris Chambers trade)
    1 3rd round pick
    1 4th round pick
    0 5th round picks (Trent Green trade)
    1 6th round pick
    1 7th round pick

    We may have a chance of getting compensatory picks depending on the league office, and of course, we can gain or lose picks depending on offseason trades and acquisitions.
     
  18. Texphinphan

    Texphinphan Season Ticket Holder

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    Thank you sir.
     
  19. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There is no way Campbell is a 2nd rounder. I don't see any way he gets out of the top ten if he comes out. I realize he has had a down year, but I believe a big part of that has to do with coaching. Teams are focusing on stopping Campbell and his coaches aren't doing a good job of taking advantage of that or working around it. I understand great players get that kind of attention and I think he should be doing better. But he still shows flashes of being a special player. He had a monster year last year and that was a year when he was in a defensive rotation that didn't have him see the field nearly as much as he has this year. With his size and skill set he will be a highly drafted player. Maybe not in consideration for the top pick, but certainly not a 2nd rounder.
     
  20. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    It's just my personal opinion. I don't like assigning a first round grade to inconsistent talent. My personal evaluations are meaningless with regards to what actually happens on draft day, and I'm sure there are a number of head coaches and GMs who would take him in the first round. But if I were running the Dolphins, I'd only consider him beginning with pick #32... and would probably pass on him even then if Fred Davis were on the board.
     
  21. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

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    You all are off your rocker.

    Reason for a lack of trades in the top 5 the past while is the over reliance of an outdated trade chart due to skyrocketing deals for draft picks, and no adjustment for weaker drafts (especially in the last 5-6 years) and the intense media/fan pressure that comes from that as they solely rely on that chart. It doesn't make any sense to trade up for smart teams anymore.

    Really what it needs is for a GM to not care about opinion and basically go in there and rewrite the rules. I mean really it's the same chart that's been used since Jimmy was in Dallas. League has changed a whole lot since then.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2007
  22. finintheburgh

    finintheburgh New Member

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    right the use of the chart should be done away with. teams arent going to give away their future, every time they have it was a huge mistake. we need to get the best deal possible and move down. get more picks and fill some of our holes.

    the number one pick can be a real curse. this years guy will get more than russel and he got over 30 mil in a signing bonuse. i just cant see giving that kind of money or cap space to an unproven d-lineman. trade down and get your whole draft for close to the same money as you give for the 1st pick.
     
  23. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

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    And here I thought I was going to be eaten alive for that comment.

    I don't know that you have to throw it away, but it does need some severe tweaking and allowances.

    Interesting thing is Randy was going on about teams relying too much on the chart so maybe he'll come up with something creative.
     
  24. dolphan117

    dolphan117 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    One thing I will throw in here- I don't think Mueller is a stickler for the trade value chart. He is a very aggressive GM and has actually talked about how it irritates him how trades don't happen because of the value chart and teams feeling like they have to stick to it.

    If he gets an offer that makes sense to him I don't think its going to have to work out exactly on the value chart..... And I like that, it just has to be the right deal.

    And I just don't get the Dallas wants to move up stuff, not saying it isn't true, I just don't get it. When I watch them play I am amazed by Barber, has the power to run inside, speed to go outside, good pass blocker, and very good receiver. I have no idea at all why they make him split time with Jones.

    Jones is a decent back but IMO Barber is top 10, that's how good I think he is. With that kind of talent on the roster it just makes no sense to me whatsoever that Dallas would want to give up the farm to move up and take Mcfadden, especially when they have a bunch of FA's next year and presumably will need to replace some of them with draft talent..... Not saying all this talk is impossible, just saying it makes no sense to me at all.
     
  25. dolphan117

    dolphan117 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Beat me to it Van, he will try and use the chart for leverage but I really don't think he is too hung up on it. Which I like.

    I mean lets say we are sitting at 1 and we have Dorsey and the DE Long rated right about the same. Lets say we know whoever is picking at 2 isn't going to take one of them because they are hot for another player. Team sitting at 3 calls up and says "I want to move up to 1 to take player X but I'm only willing to give up the 3rd pick and a high second this year" On the value chart that doesn't probably get it done but you know what? DO IT ANYWAY. If you are still going to be able to get one of the two players that you have rated equally, grab an extra pick, and still get one of the player you want at a reduced price since you are taking him at 3 instead of first overall then do it.

    Screw the draft chart, it just makes sense.
     
  26. Fla Phin

    Fla Phin New Member

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    I believe the key will be how fast Ronnie Brown can come back from hiis injury. If he is fully recovered at the start of TC then we won't need another RB. If his injury lingers into the season or, worse case scenario, he never is quite his self again... McFadden could go alopng way to solve that problem. Too bad we won't really know before the draft.
     
  27. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    It's really difficult to say that Ronnie won't be his old self, or even effective, after returning from his ACL tear.

    Two words: Braylon Edwards.
     
  28. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's fair, and I can't argue that he hasn't been inconsistent. He just has so much talent and I think if he comes out he will be one of those combine wonders that wows people with his measurables. The best thing might be for him to stay in school though and put together a complete year in 08.
     
  29. Fla Phin

    Fla Phin New Member

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    what about Braylon Edwards? He play RB?
     
  30. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    He suffered an ACL tear in December 2005. He came back from it with no problems: you certainly can't tell by his play this season that he was injured at any time. Ronnie suffered a clean ACL tear: it's just a matter of sewing stuff back together and letting it heal.

    Nice attempt at humor, though.
     
  31. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

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    Ronnie's also isn't in the class of say McGahee's which was far more severe. However he might not be fully comfortable with using his leg power until after a few games. The only bright side to it is that he got injured earlier in the season. If it had been this month it'd be more questionable.
     
  32. Fla Phin

    Fla Phin New Member

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    I wasn't trying to be a smart ***, just pointing out they're two different positions and the running movements will require different cuts and stress on that injury with the RB getting more pounding on it. Also, I think the important thing would be the time frame for his healing. If it lingers and a RB talent like McFadden was available to us in the draft and we pass.... well that wouldn't be a good thing.
     
  33. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    It's a clean tear. An injury like that doesn't linger.

    And I don't see any distinction between the WR and RB positions in terms of muscle usage. Both positions are supposed to be able to make quick, sharp cuts at a moment's notice, quickly burst to top speed, etc. Why would Braylon Edwards' quick recovery from a similar type of ACL tear preclude Ronnie Brown's quick recovery from the same injury, especially since Edwards' tear occurred later in the year than Ronnie's?

    The answer is, it doesn't. The timeframe for Ronnie's return is 9 months after his surgery--meaning, the beginning of training camp 2008.
     
  34. SCall13

    SCall13 ThePhins QB

    The biggest difference is that running backs take far more direct hits to the knee area. Because of that, potential for re-injury is higher for that reason, and that reason alone. But you're right, all open field cuts and explosive movements are the same for backs and receivers.
     
  35. DolfanDaveInATX

    DolfanDaveInATX New Member

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    We were discussing a Dallas scenario in the chat room a few days ago. If Dallas loves Darren McFadden enough to trade up for him, they will make Marion Barber available on the trade market. There are three ways this could work:

    * If Green Bay isn't sold on Ryan Grant or Brandon Jackson, Dallas sends him there for a first-round pick. Three picks at the back end of this year's first round plus next year's first and third would get it done for me.

    * Dallas finds a team in the top half of this year's draft in need of a running back (Chicago, Houston, Atlanta, Oakland, Jets) and sends him there for this year's second plus an additional pick (this year's third or next year's second). Dallas attaches those to the two 2008 firsts and the 2009 first.

    * Dallas attaches Barber to one of its other picks (#31 or #63) and uses it to trade into the top 10. Dallas then ships up the top-10 pick, the Cleveland pick, its 2009 first, and a couple of mid-round picks to finish the deal.

    There are players in the back half of the first round who will be able to help us immediately. If we can wind up with four players in the top 32 or six in the top 64 -- remember that New England forfeited its first-rounder -- that would go a LONG way toward refilling our talent pool.
     
  36. Fla Phin

    Fla Phin New Member

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    Clean tear huh? Were you in the OR? You have a link stating that?

    How can you be so sure of yourself regarding his healing time frame? Different stokes for different folks... some people are fast healers while some are not. You seem to like to group everyone into the same category.

    I hope Ronnie is a fast healer, but the truth is that no one really knows until it happens.... not you, not anyone.
     
  37. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Regarding compensatory picks, we may get one this year since we had a net loss of 1 during the last free agent period. We signed 6 system free agents and lost 7. Street free agents signed and cap cuts lost don't count.
    We signed
    Jay Feely
    Az Hakim
    Chris Liwienski
    David Martin
    Cory Schelsinger
    Cameron Worrell

    We lost
    Darian Barnes
    David Bowens
    Toniu Fonoti
    Damion McIntosh
    Travis Minor
    Sammy Morris
    Jeff Zgonina
     
  38. Carabinieri44

    Carabinieri44 New Member

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    im very excited for this off-season, Miami has a chance to turn their defense into the best...we already have the, what, #9 ranked offense in the NFL? and we have 4 starters on our offense who are ROOKIES. not to mention, Drew Mormino was gonna start before getting hurt.

    this draft has to be all defense. imagine trading with Atlanta...lets say they pick #4, they give us #4, a 2nd, 4th AND DeAngelo Hall. (some of u may think thats just a daydream)....but it can happen, i heard rumors that Hall wanted out. So adding Hall would help us out at DB real well, and at #4 you can pick Long or Dorsey (ONE of the two im sure will still be there, probably Long). So we get Long, adds a darn good DE to our defense. Now that we have 3 second round picks, we can package 2 of them to move up to the middle of the 1st round and draft an LB like Dan Connor or James Laurinitis (IF they are still there, hey...brady quinn lasted til #23!) So lets say we get Connor, right there we have a stud LB. so we just added a DE, LB, CB, and then we can pick a Safety in the 2nd, and if u really want too....trade for Albert Haynesworth....somehow.

    now if we stick with Dallas and get #15 and #31, lets just say....then u probably gotta pick Connor or Laurinitis, and a Safety. ill admit, im content with Will Allen and Michael Lehan thus far.

    maybe its all wishful thinking....but it can happen. i seriously would NOT TOUCH our offense in this draft...if u must, then a wide receiver in the 2nd or 3rd, but thats it.
     
  39. finintheburgh

    finintheburgh New Member

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    this is the kind of thinking that causes trades to never happen. your putting way to much value on the pick. dallas isnt going to give up that much for one player.
    if you get dallas to give both first this year and either their first next year or there second and 4th this year you take it.
    i dont understand how people put such a high value on picks, when you can get proven guys for low- mid round picks. hell moss went for a 4th and owens went to philly for a second.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2007
  40. Carabinieri44

    Carabinieri44 New Member

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    and Marques Colston (WR, Saints) went in the 7th round...and now hes not the best, but a GREAT receiver.
     

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