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Ryan Tannehill like what he sees in Gase’s offense

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Sceeto, Apr 9, 2016.

  1. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    I really hope he burns it up just to shut you guys up. Win or lose with a crappy line, weak RBs and a iffy defense. For goodness sake.
     
  2. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    We all hope that.
     
  3. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Just get into it bro and hope for the best. Life is too short to sit around all day eating cornflakes and urine.
     
  4. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm absolutely hopeful. Hopefully it's a lot to Parker too. Make me some $$$$
     
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  5. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I prefer not to hope.

    There's been enough analysis done to show that Tannehill has the tools to be a successful NFL QB.

    It's on the coaching staff to improve the D and the O-line, not on Tanny to step up.
     
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  6. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  7. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I love these fellas, idc if Ryan throws for 6k yards, 55 Tds and 0 INTs next year. To this point he has been an average QB rather his "guys" like it or not.

    Here is to hoping that he balls the hell out though, so my team can FINALLY have a franchise QB and so I can enjoy watching a few guys make themselves look even worse.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Tannehill could throw for 6k, 55tds, and 0 ints, but if the team went 6-10, people on here would still blame Tannehill for the losses.

    Again, please point me to the QB in his first four years, who has been saddled with terrible oline AND bad coaching AND no run game AND poor defense who has been successful. I'm not even going to ask for the "franchise" QBs who've done it, since no one has answered that. I mean, Tannehill has already shown that with average play from his oline, he can play very well. He doesn't even have to have all four of those things be average, just at least one.
     
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  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Evaluation in isolation...it can be done..
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Taken literally, I really doubt that to be true resnor.
     
  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It was tongue in cheek, but I think there are a few who would.
     
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  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Pretty clearly it can't be.
     
  13. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    In the NFL everything is connected to everything else. About the only things you can evaluate in isolation are individual techniques like throwing motion, route running or back pedaling.

    Evaluating production on the other hand is strongly influenced by your coaching, team mate's performance, opposing player's performance, and opposing coaching.
    Based on what I've noticed playing around with different data sets is that there is a minimum of +/-15% differential that has to be attributed to non-individual factors for almost every individual statistic in the NFL.
     
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  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    says who?

    its not a stance I agree with....im not saying anything other than the qb needs to improve his game for us to become a perennial champ...your statement about how everything else is bad didn't include that.
     
  15. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    He's saying it can't be done by some people on this site. Like the ones that use W/L record as a QB stat.
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    How are you estimating that?
     
  17. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Just by looking at stats of players in changing situations and comparing them to players in more stable environs. It's a "that's the vibe" thing than an attempt at analysis.

    One thing I am more certain of the more I look at NFL stats is that they are more interdependent than many people think.
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I see.. looking at the same "individual" stat under different conditions will only help answer how much the change in that condition affects that stat. It won't answer the question of how much external factors in general affect it.

    For example, let's say you want to estimate what percent of passing Y/A is due to factors other than say the QB and WR. If you look at passing Y/A under two conditions, say when the team is ahead vs. not ahead, all you've answered is the effect of ahead vs. not ahead on Y/A. It doesn't help answer what percentage is due to factors other than the QB or WR because the score differential affects not just other external factors but also the QB and WR and you have no way of estimating what percentage affected each (that was the original question anyway).

    Most common way to do this with stats is to talk about variance accounted for. Basically you take two stats, compute the correlation between them, then square that, and it's an estimate (under certain conditions you can often assume hold well enough) of how much one stat is "explaining" another. The caveat there is it's only a correlation you're working with and you have to independently argue there is a causal relationship.

    An example: Take the Dolphins' 2014 season (I happen to have the stats handy). The correlation between points scored vs. points scored against over the season is -0.26, the square of which is 0.0676. That means 6.76% of the variance in one of those stats is accounted for by the other. It's an objective way of estimating how much offensive performance (measured in points scored) affects defensive performance and vice versa. So there's one example of a case where you have a high degree of independence between the two (which makes sense).

    If you stick to just offensive or defensive stats, you'll have a hard time truly answering the question because there are clearly 2 or more highly influential actors on the stat and usually one of them is a confound. For example, passing Y/A depends heavily on QB, WR and OL while rushing Y/A depends heavily on RB and OL, so correlations between the two have the confounding factor of the OL's influence, which you won't be able to tease out.

    In summary, there are some stats where you can provide a good estimate of how much certain external factors influence the stat, and you can have cases where that influence is very low (e.g. how much offense influences defense or vice versa), but if you stick to most discussions where an "individual" stat doesn't comprise the entire offense or defense, you're really not going to be able to tease out how much external factors influence it, and very likely that number is VERY high (I'd be surprised if it's less than 50% if you could really model what's going on accurately).
     
  19. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Thanks for that Cbrad.

    Just to expound a little further if we look at the difference Y/A when ahead compared to Y/A when behind another factor is coaching and playcalling. Which in Miami's case I think was a significant issue in the last 2 years. We can also look at players like for example Lamar Miller. The biggest difference between his 2013 and 2014 stats was usage, as his efficiency stats didn't change much. Coaching decisions to keep good players like Miller and Rishad Mathews on the bench (until forced to play them due to injury) and give more playing time to lesser players affects the stats of other individuals.

    My eyeballing of QB stats would say passer rating is relatively stable year to year, but rushing and receiving stats are much more up and down
     
  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You say this stuff like it's a fact. Fact is, you need a good TEAM to become a perennial champ. Tannehill has shown to be good when he's had average play from his oline. I believe with a team assembled that can compete like you want, Tannehill would be more than enough.
     
  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't believe Ryan has reached the level of play individually to win a championship..you saying what tannehill has shown you is more than enough with the right pieces around him is not something I agree with..

    I don't speak in facts it's just my opinion because I try to evaluate in isolation..I believe there are several things he needs to do that has nothing to do with his teammates to raise his level of play and affect the game.
     
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  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And nothing I said in that response could be described as stating a fact...chill out.
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The bold is you staying a fact, is it not? And that is what I was responding to. Further, I don't need to chill out, as I wasn't escalated. LOL
     
  24. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Read the sentence before, when I say your stance is not something I agree with and then I tell you my stance..would you prefer for everyone to have " jmo" permanently placed in their sig
     
  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Whatever, man. Simply getting better play from the QB would not make the Dolphins a perennial contender. The team itself is not good enough, regardless of QB play. That's all I'm saying. You've been harping on Tannehill improving his play since day one. Tannehill has improved in many areas. I think the instability of the oline, and the undercutting from the coaches severely impeded his progress the last two seasons, more than most people want to admit.
     
  26. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    This is absolutely the deal with Tannehill. Tannehill could lead any team to the superbowl with decent surrounding cast. If Trent Dilfer did it anyone could
     
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  27. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, and honestly, I truly believe all he needs is an average oline. He doesn't need a great run game AND a decent oline AND better coaching AND a better defense. He has shown that when he gets decent protection, he does very well. I think last year's record is much different if the only thing that changed was Tannehill had decent protection the whole season. Like, average protection instead of bottom of the league.

    Now, if you built a team that was a "perennial contender" around Tannehill, that would just be gravy.
     
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  28. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    When I think about Tannehill I go back to year one and Mike Sherman. This year has always bugged me for the following reasons:

    Tannehill was drafted as a "project WR turned QB prospect. So what does Miami do? They hire the nephew of Mike Sherman as the - what position? QB coach????? WTF

    why would anyone due this? The future of the franchise is on this kids shoulder and you give him a first year QB coach who's football exp was 3 yrs in college as a backup???? To a GD rookie QB ??? WTF was the entire Miami Dolphins staff thinking - Office staff/owners included??

    I just shake my head till this day and cut the kid a break!!!!!!


    What I would have done is pay Dan Marino 5 million a year if I had to to get him as the QB coach. **** would have been worth it since they then turned around and invested 100 million dollars in the kid.
     
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  29. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Really hate to bring this up, but Ryan's worst game of the season last year may have been the best protection he had all season.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Really hate to bring up you using one game as some sort of meaningful sample size. Which game are you referring to?
     
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  31. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I would ask you provide any "samples" of your claim "all Ryan needs is decent OL play"......

    I'm reffering to the Ravens game by the way.
     
  32. Shane Falco

    Shane Falco Banned

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    LMAO!!!

    The one with the great pass to Parker to win it? And no turnovers?

    That's the best you have???

    You are reaching. Very clueless post. At least pick a game we lost LOL!!
     
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  33. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    He was 9-19 86 yards.....

    And wait, why does the W/L matter if it does not anytime else?

    I have an overall positive feeling about our QB, but sometimes I cant help but to bend over certain posters who post some of the most ridiculous crap I have ever seen.

    Drops Mic.
     
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  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The win doesn't matter, other than he supposedly can't do it in crunch time because he doesn't have "it." In another thread, I see the usual suspects trotting out Wilson winning a playoff game where he was terrible, with turnovers, but you're ****ting on Tannehill for a low throw game with no turnovers. Sounds reasonable. Sounds like a guy who is "overall positive" with the QB. I swear you don't read the stuff you write.
     
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  35. Shane Falco

    Shane Falco Banned

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    I love the spin doctors lol
     
  36. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    you call it harping i call it being accurate thus far.
     
  37. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    And you are backed up by the FO as well, as they also want to see more improvement.
     
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  38. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Im not "****ting" on him ya goof...I merely used that as an example of your matter of fact statement that "all Ryan needs is decent protection" well guess what...i **** on that theory and in typical fashion you change the topic/point. Why? Because you have too.

    Have the mains always been this bad or is it the new wave of Tanny apologists?
     
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  39. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Fin-O, I:m not trying to troll but I am genuinely interested in why you say the Ravens game was worse than:
    Week 3 Buffalo. 26/49 for 297 yards 2td/3int (59.7 rating)
    week 4 Jets. 19/44 for 198 yards 2td/2int (53.0 rating)
    Week 8 Patriots. 28/44 for 300 yards 0td/2int (64.6 rating)

    My recollection of the game is that after Miami's two quick TDs off turnovers that we spent the rest of the game in very conservative mode and letting the Ravens burn up a lot of the clock with very long drives that didn't result in many points. In the second half most of his attempts were when it was 3rd and long.
     
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  40. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    So crazy to think that offensive line was gonna get better last year against our division.

    Philbin was so adamant in defense of that group.

    Dolphins need some quality line play badly. We've gotta find guys that can hold up against these monster fronts in the AFC East.

    i remember they were calling for Eli Manning's head in New york after a 4 pick game the year he won the Super Bowl. It was his fifth year, as well. Bottom line is you don't poo-poo a qb that throws for 4,000 yds and keeps a 2-1 TD to interception ratio. Tannehill is the best we've had since Marino statistically.
     

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