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Five Predictions for the Miami Dolphins Under Adam Gase

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Sceeto, Jan 22, 2016.

  1. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    http://www.browardpalmbeach.com/news/five-predictions-for-the-miami-dolphins-under-adam-gase-7527105

    Yeah, it's a very positive pro Phin piece, but it's cool.

    This time of year, we have to have hope that things will finally go the right way for our Phins. WTF else are we going to do? You just can't sit around eating nothing but cornflakes and urine all off season. Just like in Dante's Inferno, the sign at the gates of Hell:

    “Abandon all hope, ye who enter here!” .

    :drink: :hammertime:

    I do feel a bit different about this new regime. I do have a bit better feelings. They seem to be doing the right things, but we'll see. I didn't feel this way about Philbin & Co. I liked him and supported him until it was clearly time to blow it up, but that's how I roll. However, I did not get a sense of the vision and plan like these guys appear to have. I was excited about Saban, but even that quickly seemed to be more about his ego rather than him really having a focused plan and vision for the Phins. I was "meh" on J.J. Super "meh" on Cameron.

    Of course this could all blow-up, but s--t, enjoy it whilst we got it.

    There are some good highlight videos if interested.



     
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  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I really have no read on Gase, Im kinda numb, but I will support, he's just gonna have to show me that he's the one, I have no conviction either way...sometimes I do about a coach..

    Only thing I got to hang my hat on is an interview I heard from Peyton Manning..it was a glorious rendition of praise onto another man..
     
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  3. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Here's two key differences in Chicago's offense without and then with Gase. This is basically where I'm getting my take from.

    2014: 22.2 rushes per game, 4.1ypc, 1,441yds (27th in NFL), 17th in ToP
    2015: 29.2 rushes per game, 4.0ypc, 1,854yds (11th in NFL), 8th in ToP

    2014: 6.6ypa (29th in NFL)
    2015: 7.3ypa (13thin NFL)

    He gets it. These are numbers that will translate to wins (and keep in mind he did that with mostly backups in CHI). If we up our rush attempts and ypa like that, we'll likely have a playoff-caliber offense, imo.
     
  4. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFNaq1x6mqk
     
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  5. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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  6. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    I think a lot will come down to how the players respond to Gates' personality.
     
  7. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    I think the offense will be more than fine... still extra-worried over the D tho. We are like 3,4 or 5 players away there IMO.
     
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  8. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Out of the gate I have a couple concerns, one is experience, the other is I think he may be biting off more than he can chew, it seems like he intends to be the HC, OC and QB coach, based on what he's said in interviews, but that may iron itself out, as he starts to go about his job, especially once OTAs and mini's start, he may realize that is all a little too much and rein it in a little.

    Another concern, that goes to the coaching staff, not just Gase, 1st time HC, 1st time DC and 1st time OC, all 3 of the big coaching jobs there is zero experience.

    I really do hope Gase is the guy, and one thing we do have on our side, more and more as time goes on, is the law of averages, we eventually have to get the right guy, even if it's by pure luck.
     
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  9. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    wow you cherry picker
     
  10. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Im the Phins biggest Phins homer....and I approve of this message.

    Single biggest reason why we will make the playoffs next season.

    Gase builds a team around its strengths...he does not try to fit a square peg into a round hole. It will look genius...compared to our past head coaches, but it is just ridiculously simple.
     
  11. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Lol. Yeah, pointing out that Gase seems to emphasize two of the biggest problems with our offense last season is cherry picking. Look around these boards and you'll see people 1) hammering the staff for passing too much last season, and 2) concern for Tannehill's chronically low ypa. Gase improved those very two things as Bears OC last season. Not to mention how important those two things are to winning.
     
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  12. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    The Yards per pass attempt should appear with the disclaimer that the Bears were forced to play Jimmy Clausen for over a game and a half, and quite frankly, he is bad enough that I think he is unrosterable.

    The Bears simply couldn't move the ball or score in those games, being shut out by Seattle and only putting up 9 points on Arizona because they got turnovers in field goal range.
     
  13. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Right there with you DJ. I'm ending this cycle of blindly buying into the next regime. I won't get excited until they prove they can end this dark age of mediocrity. I feel bad for Dolphans that are falling right back into the old traps of just buying all in blind and digging for all the reasons why this is going to be the change that works. I sure hope Gase is the guy, but I'm 100% indifferent about it until the results on the field prove it.
     
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  14. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The problem with efficiency-based stats (i.e. averages) is that there is no button you can press to magically increase them. Averages like Yards/Attempts or Yards/Carries are both measures of efficiency. In other words, they are measures of the end product. They don't tell you what variables you need to play with or how to re-arrange things in order to make them better.

    That said, I'll admit that the passing stats are a lot more mysterious than the rushing stats. You can at least throw money at a running game and be guaranteed some measure of success. It is not quite as easy when it comes to passing.

    I also totally agree with DJ. While it's great to know several teams were looking at Gase and that Miami wound up with him, he's far from a proven commodity. At his age, especially having been able to lean on veterans like Peyton Manning and John Fox, there's definitely a "wait and see" vibe about the Dolphins right now.
     
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  15. GreysonWinfield

    GreysonWinfield Release The Hounds

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    Please refrain from anything that could be construed as positive. The Self Loathing Dolphin Fans will have none of it.
     
  16. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    I'm okay with those predictions except for last one. Even if we make a significant leap, I don't see us winning the division until year two under Gase. Patriots are showing no signs of slowing down yet.
     
  17. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Honestly, the Patriots aren't our problem. We've split with them the last 3 years. Our problem is we can't beat Buffalo or the Jets consistently. If we had just split the Jets & Bills the last 3 years, we'd have been in the playoffs twice with 9-7 records until this year with an 8-8 record.
     
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  18. Laurence

    Laurence Banned

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    The same YPA increase applied to the Dolphins would very likely translate to more wins, based on the correlation between YPA and win percentage league-wide, and based on the fact that its YPA would move from 7.2, which is average in the league, to 7.9, which is well above average and strongly associated with winning.

    The number of rushes per game statistic I wouldn't put as much stock in, because that tends to fluctuate with having leads in games (i.e., winning causes running the ball, rather than vice-versa), and there is no strong correlation historically between the Dolphins' run-pass balance and their offensive performance with regard to the variables most strongly associated with winning.

    In other words, a similar YPA increase would likely do wonders, but a similar increase in rushing attempts would more likely reflect that the Dolphins are winning games than it would be the cause of that winning.
     
  19. Laurence

    Laurence Banned

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    The problem, though, is that Gase elevated Jay Cutler's play to a level where it had been previously in Cutler's career (and he did the same with Manning), whereas with Ryan Tannehill he'd be attempting to elevate it to a level not yet seen.

    In other words, there is no historical referent available for us to use in saying, "if only a coach could come along who could get Tannehill to play like he did back then." Tannehill never has played that way, in college or in the NFL, and so we're asking Gase to do something he actually hasn't done before.
     
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  20. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    Playoffs?!?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  21. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    It was statistically the best season of Cutlers career overall. That means he surpassed any previous year.
     
  22. Laurence

    Laurence Banned

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    It depends on which statistic(s) you're using. In only one case (QB rating) was it his career best, by a 3.1-point margin. He's had two better seasons previously with regard to both DVOA and QBR, and one better season previously with regard to YPA.

    The most informative thing to do in my opinion is to look at how much he deviated from his career average (beyond his rookie season) with regard to DVOA, and in 2015 he did that to the tune of a 0.76 standard deviation increase. However, it becomes more difficult to attribute that to Gase when, again, he had two better seasons previously with regard to DVOA, and of all seasons, they were merely his second and third in the league (2007 and 2008), when he'd first become a starter.
     
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  23. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    There is also another area to be considered, Cutler's own mind, as in the sports psychologist, and his marriage therapist, this was the first year he's actually used the team sports shrink, because of some things that were said to him by the therapist, Cutler himself gives a ton of the credit to this fact, which he boils down to be his mental look at the game, which he said has been the same his entire career, until this year.

    I don't know who is more responsible, but what I do know is that it wasn't a very big difference, going from high 80s the past 2 years, to the low 90s this year, and it was one year, perhaps Gase is the main reason, perhaps not, because there is no body of work to base it on, it's just one year, and Cutler himself says it's more to do with his own mind, so who knows who to give the credit to.
     
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  24. Laurence

    Laurence Banned

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    And that's the issue when the change in play isn't extreme. It gets tougher to pinpoint the cause of the change. It could be random variation, for example.
     
  25. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it mode" from now on on all things Dolphins. No more getting my hopes up. It is interesting that Philbin gets all of the blame for everything that went wrong with the Dolphins yet Gase gets the credit for "Cutlers best season." Fox has gone to the Super Bowl with two different teams, I would say he's probably a pretty good coach and should get at least a smidgen of credit for helping Cutler...
     
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  26. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    and Cutler said he attributed his success if you want to call it that (6-10), to his shrink
     
  27. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    im gonna support with 100 percent fervor, maybe my statement was misconstrued, I just dont have a read on the guy as far as how good of leader he is yet..but I'm all in, even if i have a a negative read on a coach or player coming in, I still give him the clean slate and try to judge objectively..
     
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  28. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    you also have a new personnel guy calling the shots, so I'm as excited as ever, because its a whole new set of dynamics, we dont know the talents of the new guys yet..My philosophy is GET EXCITED...even if were let down, its football, part of life.
     
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  29. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    I am also in the Believe it when I see it mode. When I look at the record surrounding Gace I see a guy who was in San Fran in 2012. They went to the show and lost. Exit Gace. In 2103 Gace was in Denver with Payton Manning went to the super bowl and got spanked. Exit Gace. In 2014 with Cutler in Chicago where they were 6-10. Exit Gace for Miami HC job. Coincidence or in the right place at the right time? Building a resume - appears that way. You don't leave teams that appear that good for no reason and jump around from coast to coast. A team also doesn't make it to the show based on one coach either. We will see what happens now that he has to put together all the pieces. It appears Gace has very little if any experience in that realm. IMO there is a lot more to putting a entire team together as a HC then a OC. The hiring of other inexperienced coach's by an inexperienced HC seems to me to be counter intuitive. I hope we have success, but I'll believe it when I see it. Its better then the funk we had.
     
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  30. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    I don't see Adam Gase getting the job done.
     
  31. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I stopped buying into regimes. Show me the money. Last coach I was excited about was Cam Cameron. See how that turned out? Now I just wait and see.
     
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  32. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Personally, I don't "hold on" to the accomplishments of the '72 Dolphins, but it is something I take pride in. That my team is the only undefeated team in NFL history. That doesn't mean that I'm not frustrated by the current day Dolphins though. I'm dying for a winner.

    So I'm dying for a current day winner and I'm also proud to have the only undefeated team in NFL history. They're not mutually exclusive.
     
  33. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    Stupid HC hires and rotten draft/FAs is no curse. Unless lack of sense is a curse.
     
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  34. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    He also had far fewer weapons than any other season in his career, health wise. To me that offsets any other statistics to use.
     
  35. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Easier to do and still not done.

    I dont think people should hang their hat on it, but its no different than being proud of your heritage IMO
     
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  36. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    This is only anecdotal, but I've known some die-hard Pats fans over the years, and each time it looks like they might go undefeated the verbal jabs begin. Back in 2007 when they went 16-0 regular season then 18-0 and were in the SB, they cared like crazy. They were saying they'd be known as the greatest ever. And it was happening this year too until I once again had the last laugh when they started losing! It's a huge accomplishment to go undefeated.

    And when NFL commentators rank NFL teams historically, it's always either the 72 Dolphins or the 85 Bears that get #1. The Bears had a level of dominance on defense rarely seen, but the only reason the 72 Dolphins are up there is because of the undefeated season. Otherwise, there are at least 10 other teams historically that you'd put above them. So it really does matter.
     
  37. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Shula also had a conversation with another coach recently when he was visited by new Dolphins head coach Adam Gase.

    Interestingly, the 37-year-old Gase replaced Shula as the youngest full-time head coach in franchise history.

    “I enjoyed meeting and talking to him,” Shula said. “I think he’s the right man for the job. They hired a guy with a good coaching background and I think they investigated and they interviewed a lot of people and I think they made a good choice with the guy that they hired. I was impressed with him.”
     
  38. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    Q: Cam Cameron – your impression of that hire, and your impression of their decision to pass on Brady Quinn?

    SHULA: “I think Cam Cameron was the right guy for the job. He’s got an offensive background, he was with Marty Schottenheimer – a good friend of mine out in San Diego who was an excellent coach – he’s out of it now too. He said good things about Cam Cameron. I met with him one time and I was impressed with him. He’s got that offensive background and that’s what the Dolphins need – that offensive background.
     
  39. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    Hard to put '10' teams above an undefeated team... since they didn't lose ;)
     

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