QB Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech (Class: 2018)

Almost exactly one year ago, I gave everyone a warning that in a year we were going to be talking a lot about QB Paxton Lynch of Memphis.

I had started tweeting about him in November.

[video=twitter;536278044563243010]https://twitter.com/ckparrot/status/536278044563243010[/video]

Do as much searching as you want, not very many people were talking about Paxton at that time. There were zero videos of him on Draft Breakdown. I did not see many people on Draft Twitter talking about him. The guy I saw talking about him earliest was Jeff Risdon (@JeffRisdon) in late-December 2014.

Now he's commonly being placed in the top 10. Mel Kiper had him mid-1st round. Draft Breakdown has him to Dallas at 6 overall. NewNFLDraft has him at #1 overall to Cleveland.

I bring this up because you should know the context for how I see a Patrick Mahomes, II of Texas Tech. It isn't proof that I'm right. It's information for people to consider when trying to figure out if I'm full of it or if I'm onto something.

But there is other context when it comes to my high opinion of a Patrick Mahomes. I'd been seriously onto players like Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Rakeem Cato, Jameis Winston, most recently during free agency I was extremely intrigued with Tyrod Taylor and really hoping he'd get a chance to show his stuff. I'm not necessarily bringing these guys up as success stories in my evaluation. Cato is in the CFL for example. I bring them up because as examples (along with an Aaron Rodgers) they establish a pattern for the kind of player at that position that I'm beginning to appreciate more and more in my evaluations.

It's not that I avoid stiffs. I famously had high opinions of Ryan Mallett and Brandon Weeden in 2011 and 2012. It's just that more and more I'm gravitating toward players that move a certain way in the backfield, have a certain agility and overall athletic quality. Again it's not 100%, as I found reasons to be wary of RG3, Marcus Mariota, Johnny Manziel, Geno Smith, Jake Locker, Tim Tebow and Colin Kaepernick. These were athletic guys that I didn't necessarily gravitate toward.

Anyway getting back to Patrick Mahomes, this is a guy that plays for Johnny Manziel's old offensive coordinator from Johnny's freshman year when he won the Heisman. Kliff Kingsbury used to QB for Mike Leach back at Texas Tech and has since returned as the Head Coach, and he's brought with him a very exciting, fast-paced, wide-open air raid style offense. Mahomes plays similarly to Johnny Manziel, but he's such a different player in many of the important ways to where the problems I had with Manziel as an NFL prospect aren't as present in Patrick.

I'll probably be updating this opening post for a year-plus.

QB Patrick Mahomes, II, Texas Tech (Class: 2018)

Holy **** what a beast. I'm not sure he's not the best draft eligible quarterback in this draft. He reminds me of Carson Palmer in the pocket but a taller, more prepared Johnny Manziel overall.

You want some crazy *** production?

Last year Mahomes was sort of in and out of games as a redshirt freshman. He threw 5 passes against Oklahoma State, 7 against Kansas State, 11 against TCU...but Davis Webb was the starter. I never liked Webb that much. Webb did well enough at 211 of 345 for 2539 yards, 24 TDs and 13 INTs in 8 games, with 1 rushing TD tacked on. The offense averaged 30 points per game under Webb.

Then Patrick Mahomes took over for the final four games. He had a rough outing against Texas, his first start ever...just 13 of 21 for 109 yards with no TDs or INTs before getting knocked out of the game by Quandre Diggs and having Vinny Testeverde Jr. play in his place. But after that game, Mahomes went 80 of 141 for 1319 yards, 14 TDs and 2 INTs...in THREE games. He tacked on 71 rushing yards. This is a redshirt freshman. And this year? Ludicrous. He's 336 of 517 for 4283 yards, 32 TDs and 14 INTs with 484 rushing yards and 10 more rushing TDs. They average 47 points per game.

People are going to dismiss it because it's Texas Tech and Kliff Kingsbury's system, Kingsbury himself having once been a King Kong stat gathering quarterback way back in the day (think Timmy Chang, etc). But you know what? That kind of system is so common now in college. Everyone runs it. The man has scored 42 touchdowns. He throws a ****ing beautiful ball. He scrambles around and makes things happen on the run. He executes from the pocket.

This is a baseball guy, like Colin Kaepernick. Except unlike Kaepernick, he doesn't come out with odd mechanics and tendencies that keep reminding you he's a baseball guy. He learned to hit a curve ball from Alex Rodriguez, shagged fly balls for Robin Ventura during batting practice, as his dad was an MLB player for over a decade. But on the football field, he looks like Carson Palmer in the backfield and a taller Johnny Manziel when he's not in the backfield. He loves the sport despite his baseball background. He draws acclaim for blocking down the field for his running backs (something you see Jameis Winston doing a lot). Teammates swear if he couldn't throw the ball he'd be a defensive end.

You know, I gave Johnny Manziel a lot of flack coming out. I think a Patrick Mahomes really emphasizes all the reasons I was right to do that by comparison. There's a similarity there but it's obvious on film which guy watches more film and works more carefully at his craft. Mahomes isn't known as an all-night, every-night partier. And he's also a lot bigger than Manziel and so there's less worry about injury.

Now, perhaps I'm early on this one. It's not his time yet, to start getting on him like he's a top 5 or top 10 pick in the draft. I have to say the chances of him coming out in 2016 as a redshirt sophomore have to be virtually nil so it doesn't matter anyway all this stuff about Tannehill and where you'd take the guy, etc. Don't put all that on me. He makes lots of mistakes and they're pretty typical developmental mistakes. He's down 21 points and scrambles around, decides to heave it 50+ yards down the field hoping the safety can't get there in time but he does. Or he's executing a scripted play like a no-look screen and doesn't notice the defensive back that read it and is getting a jump on the ball while he's releasing it. It's 4th & 17 and you're down 28 points, have to scramble out of the pocket and can't find any of your receivers so you throw up a lollipop and hope someone on your team finds it and comes down with it but the other side gets it instead. Stuff you see in a young player and you understand.

I'm just plotting trajectory and looking at raw talent here, and I have to say...I'm pretty floored. DJ gonna love this kid, lol.

He's All Big-12 Academic First Team. I don't think he has a perfect 4.0 but it's very close. He majors in Business Finance.

[video=youtube;yZ4evF6vyng]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ4evF6vyng[/video]

Gonna be fun to watch Draft Twitter discover Patrick Mahomes in the coming months/year.

 

The way he carries himself and throws the football from the pocket reminds me of Carson from way back. I haven't actually taken a dive into Carson Palmer since he was with the Bengals, back when it was a possibility Miami could trade for him, so I'm going off a pretty long memory here. His playing STYLE is much more akin to a Johnny Manziel.