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Miami's Path to the Playoffs

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 10, 2015.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I know, I know....Miami's not going to the playoffs. Even if they win out and finish the year 9-7, there's only a 5.6% chance that they'd take a wild card spot. But since they're not officially eliminated yet, I figured that I'd share the miracles that would need to happen for us to get in.

    First off, we are sitting in the 10th position in the conference and there's not a single tie-breaker that goes our way. So that means even if we do win all 4 games, we need all but one of these teams to finish 8-8 or worse-

    Serious Contenders-

    - Chiefs (currently 7-5, 3 tough games left)
    - Jets (currently 7-5, 2 tough games left- Pats/Bills)
    - Steelers (currently 7-5, 3 tough games left)

    Outside Possibilities-

    - Texans (currently 6-6, 2 tough games left)
    - Bills (currently 6-6, 1 tough game left- Jets)
    - Raiders (currently 5-7, 2 tough games left)

    My equation for "tough games" is a division rival that's also in the playoff race OR any team 3+ games over .500. (NE, GB, Den, Cinci, etc.)

    Here's the problem though; most of these teams have heads-up games against each other, so it's not like they can lose all of their tough games remaining. And from the way it looks today, the Steelers and the Chiefs SHOULD take the final two slots. So we're definitely rooting against those two from here on out....but Pitt has looked legendary in recent weeks. So they're about as close as a lock as you get four weeks out...which leaves one spot up for grabs.

    Now let's look at the division...the Pats have all but clinched (they need 1 more win and 1 Jets loss), so they're not in this conversation. The Bills and the Jets should fall between 8-9 wins....if either gets to 9, our season is over. So naturally, we're rooting for both of these teams to lose the rest of the way as well.

    That leaves the Raiders, which almost certainly won't win 9 games, and the Texans, who should finish 7-9 or 8-8. So for now, we're not sweating these teams and we're rooting for them to win against the Steelers, Jets, Bills and Chiefs.

    And granted, we need to win all 4 of our football games, which feels next to impossible at this point. But the Pats often rest Brady in week 17 and many of their starters, and the Giants, Chargers and Colts are all struggling like us. So 9-7 isn't completely crazy if Tannehill steps up just a little bit in these final weeks.

    Now, it would be nicer to say, "Win and We're In!" but that just wasn't in the cards this season. But hey, if the Chiefs, Jets and Texans choke down the stretch (I'm assuming Pittsburgh won't), then the door is open for us to take that remaining slot.

    Is it probable? Nope. But we're Dolphins fans...to hell with the probable. As long as we're still in contention, then we may as well cross our fingers and hope for the best.

    My Best Guess

    I'm not saying that we won't go 9-7...it's actually a real possibility. But I have a feeling that the Bills are going to sweep Wash, Dallas, and Philly to reach win #9 and I'm really liking the Steelers offense at this point as well. The Jets should also have a good shot at the 9 win mark so I'm saying the season is over....but at least we're still mathematically in this.
     
  2. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    Really there's only a 5.6% chance we get a spot if we go 9-7? That's more grim than I thought.

    I thought it would be higher than that if they miraculously managed to win out. But our season may end on Monday Night.
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, I thought that it would be better than that as well, but since I couldn't find it written out anywhere (because it's too silly to actually write out), I went ahead and researched the standings and the remaining schedules. The 5.6% stat came from....Football Outsiders maybe? I honestly can't remember but I saw no reason not to believe it.

    There was also like a 0.4% chance we make it in with 8 wins and a tie, but I wasn't even considering an attempt at writing those scenarios out.
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    For me the record no longer matters (except for draft position) because playoffs are nearly impossible anyway. I'm primarily interested in player evaluation (Tannehill, and some rookies) the rest of the season. I think the best possible scenario for the future of this team is if Tannehill and the rooks play really well but we lose enough games to get a top 5 draft pick (our strength of schedule is really helpful in tiebreakers for the draft). But the key thing is that they play well.. if they do, I'm fine if we win out and don't make the playoffs.
     
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  5. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    I was playing around with the NFL predictor and it seems like that number is accurate.

    The only real way we get in is if we finish ahead of both the Jets and Bills, and that would mean they would have to go 8-8 and we'd have to win out.
     
  6. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If dan wins out, its gonna be real tough to let him go for this front office.
     
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  7. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  8. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    If we finish 8/8 I think he gets job. That means he went 7/5 as a HC.
     
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  9. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    History suggests that that doesn't really matter either.
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yup, as long as they're each 8-8 or worse at the end, we'll have about a 40% chance IF (and that's a really big if) we finish 4-0. But hey, we have to root for something...right?

    I think even if we take 3 of 4, he has a very good chance of staying. But shoot, if we get a playoff berth or even just narrowly miss it at 9-7, then he's a 3-5 year lock under Ross.

    Exactly! I meant to say that, but it's been a long day and I forgot.
     
  11. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Even if we win out the chances of all those teams in front of us collapsing are as slim as anything. I just want to see some good progress from the young guys over the last four games. Hopefully win all four too.
     
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  12. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Would be nice to see some young players get experience and impress the next couple of weeks leading them to contribute more significantly next year. About the best any Dolphin fan can hope for at this point.
     
  13. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    That path is paved with Billy Turner, Dallas Thomas and Jason Fox. Not a very well paved path.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    They're often referred to as turnstiles...and that's an offense to turnstiles everywhere.
     
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  15. Phinfanjt

    Phinfanjt New Member

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    The Chiefs are almost a lock to get the 5 seed. They may have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the NFL. 3 of their last 4 are at home and all against teams with losing records (S.D. Cleveland, Baltimore and Oakland)
     
  16. Wildcat23

    Wildcat23 Here kitty kitty

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    Monday night is our season. If we lose I hope we lose out. Id also love for RT to start a great streak to end the season so maybe a good OC or two might be suckered into coming to Miami. Other than that, Ill just be watching sundays to see Parkers development.
     
  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    They are. I think that the Chiefs finish at least 3-1, and the Steelers at least 2-2. If that happens, those two are almost certainly in.

    That being said, there are a lot of games today where the AFC teams ahead of Miami in the WC hunt are underdogs. It could very well happen then we still go into the MNF game with a sense of hope for the playoffs. Still, its highly unlikely that we make it in. As others have said, I'm just looking for the team to play well now.
     
  18. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    Yea good luck with that....I'll be tracking the draft order lol
     
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  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Ryan Tannehill has a habit of looking absolutely terrible, getting the fan base angry, and then playing 3-5 games like the Peyton Manning of old. And at this point I think he has to realize, it's now or never to secure that QB1 title. So yeah, I'm expecting the same thing...he's going to get hot on us and make the Tannehill argument start all over again. And really, it's the perfect time for him to prove his worth. QB's who find their rhythm in December have found themselves playing in February quite a few times recently.

    I think you're dead on...the Chiefs and Steelers are the most likely suspects to lock those slots down. But we face this every year and good teams choke, losing teams hit their stride and we see a lot of pride closing things out. So that way I see it....it's anyone's spot to win or lose.

    Well, Miami is currently tied for the 17th pick overall. Yup, that's right....the NFL has 16 other teams at 5-7 or worse. So good luck with that tracking, LOL. We could be anywhere from a top 5 to outside the top 25 depending on how this plays out.
     
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  20. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Sorry bro, but Tanne has never had any "Manning like" games, he has never reminded anyone of Manning, ever.
     
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  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    You know I'm not a big supporter of his, but he's had a few (mainly in the middle of last season) where he was simply incredible with pre-snap reads and making great decisions. Coincidentally, those games came right after the only time the Dolphins coaching staff has ever criticized him publicly...and he took the field with some rare urgency that hasn't been seen in 50+ other contests.

    So know that I'm talking about a very brief time in his career...once or twice in 2012 and 2013, then that small stretch in 2014. And I think that's why so many here absolutely love him...they just can't get past those 5 or 6 contests to see his entire body of work.
     
  22. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    Their path to the playoffs:
    [​IMG]
    Watching on the couch like every year.

    Dolphins couldn't make it when they were 8-6 and needed to win just one of their last two against teams below them in the standings. They choke when it matters no matter the opponent.
     
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  23. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I guess its a coincidence that was the only time he had an oline that played at an average level then?
     
  24. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    I understand now what you're saying, not sure I agree with that either btw, but now I do understand what you were referring to, because my reply to you was based on what I think is the general perception of Manning, which is attacking the D down field, just so you understand my initial reply.

    To clarify, I'm not saying that Tanne didn't do a good job in the games you're referring to, I just think the Manning comparison is off, pre-snap Manning is among the best ever, it's like he's creating plays out there at times, he starts moving everyone around so much that by the time he's through you've got a LT lined up as a WR and the water boy in the backfield, lol.
     
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  25. Sleepy

    Sleepy Well-Known Member

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    Surprise, Arizona
    Pitt, KC and NY all won.

    Buffalo was the only loss.

    Oakland playing right now.
     
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  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, there's no realistic hope. Pitt and KC both play the Ravens and Browns. If either wins even one more (any game left), we lose the tiebreaker (division records) even if we win out (we are 0-5 division!!).

    Best to hope for great individual performances but that we lose the games.. top 5 vs. 10-15 in the draft makes a difference, especially if we want a QB.
     
  27. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    You sure about that? Tried the playoff machine and got Miami in at 9-7 with Pittsburgh going 1-2 in the last 3. They're saying Miami gets in because of this:
    • 6th Seed - Miami
      Wins tie break over Pittsburgh based on best win percentage in common games.
    Though this only happens if both the Bills and Jets get to 8-8.
     
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  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well, NFL.com says whether 2 or 3 are tied, the first tie breaker after head-to-head is division record (only after that comes common games):
    http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

    Dolphins at best would be 1-5 in division if we win out, and Pitt and KC already have more division wins, so someone's right/wrong.. not sure who.

    EDIT: I see.. wild card is different. OK my mistake.
     
  29. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Nobody has posted Mora yet? Weird.
     
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  30. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    We still talking playoffs ?

    Let's talk draft. That's next important thing for Miami. We are done after week 17. Period.


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  31. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    You mean like last Sunday at home vs a horrid Ravens secondary??

    Anyway, Sick is right....playoffs are a comical thought. IDC if we win 54-0 tomorrow night.
     
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  32. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Yeah, as far as I can figure, the only way we could get in relies on the Jets losing to Dallas next week, and the Steelers losing to either the Browns or Ravens (along with a number of other things). We may not be officially out, but its as implausible as possible without it being mathmatically so.
     
  33. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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  34. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    Argh. Good catch.

    [video=youtube_share;U7fjDS0jKiE]http://youtu.be/U7fjDS0jKiE[/video]



    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  35. JDelenne

    JDelenne Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    from playing around on the ESPN playoff machine.. it doesn't matter a whole lot on the Jets/Bills games the rest of the season. We really need to root for KC and PIT to lose games.
     
  36. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    The Steelers are playing really well right now.
     
  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Hey, playoffs have been a comical thought for the past 13+ years....but we're still here, aren't we? So do go making pee-pee in our Corn Flakes just yet; we are eliminated from the playoffs when we're actually eliminated...and not a second before. Some of actually like tracking the possibilities and such, even though we know that we're not going to see it happen. So if you and sick want to talk the draft, then start a thread and we promise not to come over there complaining. =)

    When I started this thread I didn't see the playoff machine, but we basically need 3 teams to fall- Pitt, KC, and NY.

    The Bills lost again so I think they're on their way to being out of the picture...we just need 2 of the 3 to stall from here on out. Pitt is playing their best football in awhile and someone mentioned we do have a single tie-break over them, so we're really just rooting for KC and the Jets to finish 0-3. That probably won't happen, but hey...it's something to root for anyway.

    By the way folks, I'll update the original post tonight after the Fins play.
     
  38. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    Really think that 5th wildcard spot belongs to KC, they have the easiest schedule out of all the wildcard contenders left. IMO, we're really rooting against the Steelers and Jets.

    While Pittsburgh has been playing well as of late, they play the Broncos this week and two back-to-back away division games, I don't think it's that far fetched to say they can lose 2 out of 3.

    PS: Don't bother updating this if we lose, I think we'll be mathematically eliminated with a loss today.
     
  39. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yup, that's exactly why I was holding off. I'll keep giving updates as long as we keep winning.
     
  40. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I came up with a scenerio where the Fins, Steelers and Bills were all tied at 9-7, and the Jets were at 8-8, and we made the 6th seed somehow. Its all incredibly unlikely of course.
     

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