I just found this too strange not to share. How often do opposing QB's talk up their opponents two days before playing them? Isn't that the coach's job? It's good to see he's a little nervous though...and it also seemed like a good opportunity to play "name that caption".
http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/j...nfs.com/en_us/Sports/ap/201510271206435745916 "That Ryan, he's kinda hot right now ya know, and he's got those long arms..."
"Them Dolphins...ya man...nice balls...they good don't ya know...but who am I, ask this gerbil in my *** what he thinks!"
Orange on a Dolphin uniform was always meant to be a minor color - an accent color, if you will. Orange as a major component of the uniform is like the little old maiden aunt who is not quite right in the head, who while living almost exclusively up in her room, knits various size PG rated doilies of naked men playing poker on a tennis court to send to all her relative's friends for Christmas as she plays reruns of "The Rocky Horror Picture Show" very loud as background. She has a huge stash of medications she pours into a mixing bowl, swirls around with her hands, grabs a palm full and flips all but the final fifteen with her pointer finger according to the color of the day saying "No! You're Right out!" and takes them at precisely 11:52 AM every morning. Other than that she is absolutely polite, charming, sweet, and normal as could be - but you are always a little afraid to take her out or her room for very long, and never out in public. That is what an Orange Miami Dolphin uniform is to me.
Damn, and all this time I thought it would be boring to party with you Rev. Who knew?!? Where exactly do I need to be at 11:52 for my meds?
Ah, that's where I know her from! [video=youtube;5ePVcZvt7Ew]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ePVcZvt7Ew[/video]
This is what every Pats presser is like, they always give the other team a lot of credit, same old, same old.
Exactly! He said it was amazing to complete 25 straight. I don't see him saying Tannehill is really accurate, or that Tannehill is good or anything. I was expecting something like "Tannehill is playing great. He is very accurate, something
I don't even entirely agree with this post, I love the Orange jersey's (although admittedly somewhat odd looking). But god damn is this some good descriptive writing lmao!
Brady isn't nervous. Neither is Belichick. They're one of the greatest dynasties in sports history. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. I'm looking forward to a game that I believe will be competitive, though. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I took it as Brady calling out his receivers, who had a few drops against the jets. Re-read the quotes: I don't take any of that as compliments to our offense so much as him calling out his. YMMV.
It's standard pats talk. On the other hand, how many people here think the Rev is currently dressed like Dr. Frank N. Furter?
I hope they are at their cheating best on Thursday night. To bad the Fins weren't up here in December...we could go all throwback and pull the old snow thrower rooski at the Fins. Good times.
Why is everything with Brady a mind game of some sort? I mean can't he say what is really on his mind? It is the same thing every year. Especially when we come into town.
Pressure Brady with a 4 man rush and we have a good chance of winning this game. Offense needs to continue to make big plays in the running game.
What if there is nothing there? It would be great just to see him sit there with a **** eating grin on his face drooling a little going "Uhhhhhhhhhhh...................."
5 fumbles, 2 lost We have 6 fumbles, 2 lost Average is about 7 fumbles Sample size and deviation is meh.
You have to do it per offensive play, and strip out the special teams fumbles. And the whole original point was there was no deviation. I'm just pointing out how silly that crap analysis was from Sharp Analysis. That idiot included special teams fumbles into the fumble total, even though Special Teams used K balls, and then did not include the special teams plays into the denominator ... grade A idiot and everyone lapped it up like dogs.
Sharp's original analysis has some problems, but when you do a more careful analysis (in fact I did one in a post long time ago), you still see the abnormally low fumbling rate for NE. However, the qualifier is that it's way above normal for non-dome teams. It's basically the same conclusion Brian Burke came to: http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...ral/224-the-patriots-have-great-ball-security Point is, there's a statistical abnormality in NE's low fumbling rate from the 2007 rule change onward if you look at outdoor teams. Oh, and regarding K balls etc.. that alone isn't a good criticism because you're applying that metric to all teams and you can't show that all the difference was with the K balls.
Lol...that's hilarious. I guarantee he has nothing there... He memorized Belichick's words and phrases.
Baltimore, Chicago, Green Bay, Seattle are all up there. NE is tops sure. But they also bench 1,200 yard rushers with average fumble rates like Stevan Ridley. It is not abnormal as you see when you break it down by fumbles per offensive play ran. The difference between NE's running back fumble rate and the league average is 1.5 -2 fumbles PER YEAR. The problem is when you don't exclude QB sack/strips, you include a lot of other noise. Russell Wilson drops back what, 400 times a year? yet he has 10 fumbles a year because he's trying to extend the play, he holds on to the ball, and he plays behind a bad oline so his fumble per drop back is huge. Meanwhile Tom Brady and Peyton Manning get rid of the ball the quickest in the league, #1 and #2 over the past few years. They are naturally going to have lower fumble rates, and they do. When you include QB fumbles you are including Oline, protection, scheme, game plan, QB ability to avoid sack, time to throw, all of that. Outside of funny laterals at the end of games Running backs and Wide Receivers when they have the ball in their hands they're not trying to get rid of it. When you isolate that, NE fumble rates on receptions and runs are not wildly off. They're not even in 1st place with fumbles per reception with two outdoor cold teams in #1 and #2 with Baltimore and NYG.
Yeah.. I don't have that post handy where I did a more detailed analysis, but I looked at average # of offensive plays per game (and thus per year) for an NFL team, took the stats on # of fumbles per offensive plays, then calculated # of extra fumbles per year (due to offensive plays) the average NFL team had vs. NE. That was the starting point. Then I found stats that showed the correlation between turnover differential and wins in the NFL and the result was that NE was winning approx. 1 extra game per year statistically speaking due to the abnormally low fumbling rate when compared to the average outdoor NFL team. My memory may not be perfect on the exact steps I took (it was a detailed post long ago), but I do remember the result of ~1 extra win per year, which is a pretty big difference. Naturally, the more you can pinpoint what is actually going on the better, but until we have a more detailed analysis, one has to just assume the noise isn't going to make too much of a difference in the final analysis because pre-2007 NE was more in line with the NFL average. Something happened in 2007, and the fumbling stats are the one piece of objective evidence that suggests something abnormal occurred (statistically speaking abnormal, in fact, when you calculate how likely the result is by chance). What happened? Best guess: the rule change.
It is not abnormally low. Once you isolate the QB from the RB/WR/TE you see, NE is still tops but not abnormally so with Balt right there. Once you add the QB fumbles back in, then it looks out of whack but you have the best QB in the league there throwing 650 times and fumbling 5 times a year since 2009 (2008 he didn't play). I skipped 2007 because Flacco hasn't been drafted yet, but Flacco from 2008-2014 fumbled 8.7 times a year. That alone accounts for the difference between NE and Balt fumble rates. Look at how low Baltimore fumbles per reception in that chart. It's wildly below NYG, which is already lower than NE. For WR and RB, baltimore and NE are pretty close combined on runs and receptions. The difference? Flacco fumbles it 8.7 times a year, Brady 5 times a year. But Brady is throwing 50 more passes per year than Flacco. The point? The difference between NE fumbling and Balt fumbling is significantly different because of QB fumble rates. Is it any wonder the Patriots and Colts dominate this list? It's because Manning and Brady are so quick to throw and get rid of the ball. If you look at Indy's fumble rate for running backs its' middle of the pack, and their receptions fumble rate is good but not the best. So why dominate this list? Peyton Manning.
Pardon me, but I don't follow what the point is here. Brady fumbling 3.7 times a year LESS than Flacco, even with throwing more than 50 more passes per year, proves the deflated ball "didn't" help Brady not fumble it?
I think you're getting off track a bit. The question here is did the 2007 rule change cause a statistically speaking abnormal decrease in the fumbling rate for any team? It seems to have done so for NE more than for any other team. Obviously we can't directly evaluate causality (per the rule change), but the pre-2007 vs. 2007-onwards fumbling rates can be analyzed and NE does top the list of average fumbling rate differentials between those two time periods if I remember correctly. In this latest post, you're trying to look at where the difference in fumbling rates between two teams (Baltimore vs. NE) during 2008-2014 comes from. I like the road you're going down (analysis-wise), but that's really a separate issue than the one I was responding to (whether the 2007 rule change helped).
Don't tell me .2 psi is going to save a QB getting hit on the blindside by Cameron Wake running full blast. There is only the chance a QB is going to fumble maybe, 30-50 times a year. It's when they drop back and get sacked, or scramble. If the Patriots were benefiting from deflated footballs it would be very apparent on the receptions and runs per year, which can be up to 800. In the chart above, do you see an abnormal rate of fumbles compared to other teams? Is it abnormal compared to Baltimore?
