It's crazy how this game is. Once little bounce the wrong way and you can be screwed. Fu**ing Richie Incognito's illegal chop block on a pass rusher who was already blocked out of the play nullified a 35 yard TD from Tyrod Taylor to Charles Clay. Cost me 10-15 pts for most of my lineups [including 2 of the $25 dollar entrees]. I've got Clay in most of them, 3x paired with Tyrod. I might end up totally blanking on the day b/c of that one dumbass penalty instead of being up a couple hundred bucks. That's twice in 4 weeks, first being the Bradford-Matthews TD that Kelly didn't challenge in week 1.
Won about 200 of the 275 entries I made this week. Best week so far this season. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
Congrats. How long did it take you to set all those lineups Omar? Wait, you've said that fantasy football is more about chance or luck than skill [or something to that degree], so does that mean you treat your lineups more like lottery tickets and select 'em at random hoping to hit big on a few?
I was thinking earlier today that DFF is probably something that should be played with a few thousand dollar bankroll to achieve maximum effectiveness. What are your thoughts?
After winning a good percentage week 1. I've been really freaking bad at this. Only cashing in on 1 of 12 line ups this week.
I'm up 70 bucks on 10/10 $1 50k tourney entries (yahoo). I also signed up for Draft Kings. DFN has a promo where you get the MVP package free (50 dollars per month) for 6 months if you sign up for draft kings. I'm too unfamiliar w/the tourney's I entered and scoring system of DK and don't know how to rate DFN's success rate w/DK just yet, so I entered 2 lineups, and can analyze the tourney results this week. Both are currently cashing. DFN optimized the QB/WR stack w/Rodger and Cobb... They didn't do super well today, but my teams are currently cashing at $6 a piece atm. I've scored 170+ points with both. My lineups for yahoo this week looked like... (I only do QB/WR stack) QB: Blake Bortles/Colin Kaepernick. RB: D. Freeman RB: Karlos Williams Flex: Matt Forte TE: Bennett DEF: Indy and Philly For Bortles, I had Allen Hurns at WR for that stack. For Kaepernick, I had Boldin. Boldin was more expensive, so the combination of WR2 and WR3 were different in every lineup depending on the QB I started. None of them super "productive" but they were all cheap and had really good cost per point ratings in the end, so the value was there. Kaep and Boldin didn't produce too well today, but they were cheap enough that I was able to spend money on players to make up for their lack of production. I don't know about draft kings, but yahoo's pricing of players is extremely tough for newbies. W/draftkings, they price their players to the point where it's easy to create a lineup of pro bowlers from top to bottom. Yahoo's pricing forces you to find "value" plays. For example, Aaron Rodgers was $46 and Randall Cobb was $34. That's 40% of your $200 dollar salary cap for the (arguably) best QB/WR stack in football (not this week, obviously, but in general). To go that route, you need to find value players with strong cost per point production. And that's where DFN really shines IMO. Seriously, that daily fantasy nerd is gold. 17/20 going into the week and it's looking like 27/30 by the end of week 4 for yahoo. I'm seriously debating putting $110 dollars into yahoo DF next week. My usual 10-$1 tourney entries and 10-$10 dollar entries.
P.S. DFN updates his site around an hour before game time... If I have time, I'll post some Draft Kings and Fan Duel optimized rosters around 12:00-12:30 before kickoff. You guys can try them out if you wish. Anyone prefer 1 QB/1 WR stacks? Or just general lineups? Based on what I've seen, the real money rosters are the QB/WR stacks, but the general optimized rosters cash too... Let me know.
So frustrating. All I needed was 2 sacks [or 1 INT or 1 FR] from Seattle to be in the money on two of my $25 entries.... but they couldn't get Stafford down a single time.
back to square one after this week to give myself some cushion again. It's probabilities time- single-entry Double ups and Triple ups.
Spent about 12 hours coding software that automatically does everything. Don't believe I've said that about fantasy football, but either way, these games are a different beast. Being able to submit multiple entries makes these unique.
Out of the 275 entries I made, I used 7 different QBs. Hedging to mitigate risk is the advantage gained from having multiple entries.
Nice. Does the software require you to make weekly adjustments to account for match ups, weather, etc?
GPP's are the hardest to cash in. Double ups and 50/50's are the best way to make money and balance out the GPP unpredictability and limited payouts. Try both. Instead of 2 $50 entries, maybe spread that around to five $10 entries, ten $5 entries, etc... The payouts might not be as good, but you increase your chances of making a profit, right? Update on DFN. In draft kings, I cashed 2/2. Both lineups finished top 300 and I won $18. Yahoo was 10/10 and won $40. Since the start of week 2, DFN and yahoo is 27/30. If we include week 1, DFN is 31/40. Week 1 only cashed 4/10. That's because the optimizer determined Peyton Manning and D. Thomas/E. Sanders were the optimized starting QB and 1 WR stack. In all fairness, it's week 1. And week 1 does appear to be an anomaly. And just for the record, on DFN, MVP access gives you 40 lineups. But I have been only using 10. I could go back and check out all 40 lineups for weeks 1-4. W/o counting, the eyeball test looks good though. This week, I cashed 10/10. Sadly, the SNF and MNF dropped me down a few spots. At minimum, I needed 108.2 points to cash. On $10, I won a total of 40 dollars. 3x my buy in. 7/10 were $2 cashes. 1/10 was a $4 cash. 2/10 were $10 dollar cashes. My top finishes were 166 and 190 out of 56000 people. DFN hasn't updated the results of week 4 yet (will be up tonight, I think). But the potential for an even better finish was there. For example, Atlanta was the top scoring defense this week. They were also the cheapest ($10). Had I varied my defenses more (Indy and Philly were the optimizer top choices), the potential was there for a top finish. In fact, had I used Atlanta as my defense on my best team (149.12 points scored, 166th) and switched out Indy/Philly, I would finished 2nd overall and got $3,500 lol. My second highest scoring team (148.22, 190th) would of tied for 3rd. Crazy. In fact, looking back at the history of DFN, there's a few instances of this happening. Where good scores could become GREAT scores and have huge cashes. Defense wins championships... And it wins Daily Fantasy Football too. If I go to DFN and lock in Atlanta as my defense, using the QB/1 WR stack, the 3rd optimized roster scored 182.42. AKA First place. AKA $5000 dollars on a $1 entry. Bortles, Karlos Williams, Matt Forte, Devonta Freeman, Allen Hurns, Jeremy Maclin, Demaryius Thomas, Martellus Bennett, and Atlanta. So now the question becomes... How do I let the optimizer do it's thing, while varying defenses... I don't want to fool around with it too much and risk not getting the best rosters possible... Had I known about DFN in week 2, I would of have 3 170 point teams and finished top 15 for those three lineups. 4th, 10th, and 13th. That's $900, $250, and $165 for the $1 50k tourney. Or $22,500, $8,500, and $5,500 in the $10 million dollar baller tourney. One reason why I'm debating doing 10, $10 MDB lineups, in addition to the 10, $1 tourney. anyway, point is... I don't want to **** around with the lineups, but I want to vary these defenses a little. And I'm not sure of the right method to do that ATM.
The algorithm I use accounts for opponent. It is not going to account for specific matchups, i.e. this player is matched up against another. Weather isn't considered, though it could be built in, I suppose. My algorithm does include vegas lines and totals, which basically accounts for everything.
I'm saying, how do you do 275 entries? When do you have time to upload them? Obviously, news about injuries isn't updated until 1 hour before kickoff at the earliest.
I'm slightly ahead on FanDuel (about 20% on year) but behind on Draft Kings. I think I'm going to just stick to FanDuel for the rest of the year. I typically only do 3-5 lineups per week.
I started with $16 and was up $115 entering last week, then got cocky and stupid by betting on too many low percentage tournaments hoping for a large payout. Back to square one b/c of it. Live and learn. Will be significantly more risk averse moving forward even though the profit potential is less exciting.
well, I was ahead going into this week. now I'm just under. (-$24 for the season) I think the mistake I made is that I didn't play any H2H leagues this week, which usually balances out my bets. on top of that: I benched Doug martin in my fantasy league this week and subbed A Abdullah (don't ask me why), but it was a net loss of 38 points, and I lost my match by 37 points! ..and I was at least winning my office pickem pool - which is a nice steady income every week - all I needed was San Diego to win to get first place. woke up this morning. #$@!@#
I had a great week on DK. It's a shame my best lineup of the year and I only played a handful of 50/50's and 1 3x multiplier. made a profit of $24 this week. All of my lineup's cashed but this was my best one: Brady Forsett Freeman Edelman Snead Hurns Benjamin Gronk Bronco's DST
Im -$25 but Ive come close on a few where a different choice at a position would have gained more money for me. Ive been playing a lot of 1 and 2 dollar pools and im consistently placing just outside of paydirt or just outside of the next prize level
How are you guys feeling about this week? I think Dalton, having an amazing year so far is great value on DK at only $5700.. the same price as Tannehill. Any one else brave enough to start our DST? I got them in one .25 entry. Also C. West. J Charles replacement is only going for $4000 another good value imo.
In tourney play, Miami isn't too bad of a play. Cheap and high upside against a so so team. Miami did shut down another so so offense in Washington... Who have way better running backs, but a lesser QB. I wouldn't put Miami into every lineup though... I don't like West's matchup though. He's cheap, but lacks any real upside IMO. Outside of a big run by Hillman, Minny is only allowing 3 yards per carry.
Ugh, my worst week this year. banked on Brady-Edelman-Lewis-Patsies D to stomp the Colts. ON my other cards I had C Palmer, D Freeman, D Hopkins and Larry Fitz, but then fizzled out with A Andrews and New England Def again.
Bad week for me... Invested 35 Dollars. Used DFN as a tool to help me fill in my roster, but DFN isn't responsible for creating these, so the losses are on me. So I have no one to blame but myself... Five $5 50/50's and Ten $1 Tourney entries. Currently down $14. Have a shot to improve that by tonight's end w/a couple of players going tonight in various 50/50's and Tourney's. I will lose money this week no matter though. My 50/50 lineups: I went w/Carson Palmer and Larry Fitz as my stack. Both have been very consistent throughout the season. Both put up respectable numbers (Palmer: 18.74; Fitz: 13.30). In a 50/50 game, I'm not too unhappy w/those results, although I obviously would of liked another TD pass and a TD catch. My RB's were Foster, Forte, and Lacy. RB's are more consistent w/points week to week, so I invested heavily into these three RB's, all of whom had juicy match ups. Foster and Forte held up their end, scoring 19.7 and 18.4. Eddie Lacy on the other hand... You fat ****, I hate you. That is all. Also, I used Arizona, Titans (x2), Jets, and Cinci for my defenses. All of whom had juicy matchups. All of whom busted. I will win one 50/50 for sure, and have a shot to win another if Randle does something respectable tonight. My Tourney lineups: I learned a valuable lesson in team building this week. QB-WR (stack), plus RB1, plus WR2, and DEF are the core of your roster. Always. Build around these 5 players. The other 4 players is where is you take some chances, some gambles, etc... At least, according to the pros/semi-pros. Throwing darts at the wall is not advised. Case and my point, my tourney lineups... Had I followed the lineup building protocal, rather than throwing darts... Here's what my lineups COULD have looked like. QB: Blake Bortles $28 (25.94 points) WR1: Allen Robinson $23 (17.6 points) WR2: DeAndre Hopkins $32 (31.8 points) RB1: Arian Foster $28 (19.4 points) Def: Miami/Titans/Baltimore $10-$12 Dollars (aka good matchup, high ceiling, low floor, cheap options). This core lineup scored over 100 points... And yes, I did use Miami's defense in 3 lineups. I think tied Like I said earlier, cheap Miami D + bad opp = worthwhile risk due to upside. I would never play them in cash games, but Tourney's? Hell yeah. They did score 15 FP against Washington, despite all the scheme flaws. I felt confident there was a chance they could replicate that and score double digit points against a bad titans offense. I had locked in my 50/50's Saturday night. Had I been smart, and built all my lineups around this core, I could very well have been cashing in multiple HUGE paydays. The current leader in my $1 tourney has 200 points. Right now, my highest scoring line up is 156.24. That core, and Forte, C. West (KC RB), T.Y. Hilton, and Zach Ertz (playing tonight). This was my FIRST tourney lineup I made on Sunday mourning. Now, let's look at my other lineups. I see Largarette Blount, Lamar Miller, T.Y. Hilton, Julius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, etc... Some cheap (none too expensive) and all scoring close to or over 20 points. I also see some duds, like Maclin, AJ Green, CJ Anderson, C. West, Denard Robinson, etc... And some OK-low value compared to cost plays like Edleman, Gronk, Fitz, and some cheap players who scored OK like Aiken, Boldin, etc... The only thing that any of these rosters have in common is Bortles and Allen. Based on price, matchup, and season totals to date, I loved that stack. And it did well for me. $51 dollars for 43.5 points? Not too shabby. I'll take that all day, everyday, even if it isn't the best stack of the week. However, If I developed the entire core and not just the QB-RB stack, I could of put together some real winners. Even the gambles on CJ Anderson, Denard Robinson, C. West, etc... could have been forgiven, if my core produced 119 points. I'm basically in the money at worst w/5/9 core players. Based on the number of times I used players outside of this core, I could have put together this Juggernaut. QB: Bortles ($28) RB: Foster ($28) RB: Blount (x4) ($19) WR: Robinson ($23) WR: Hopkins ($32) WR: Hilton (x4) ($24) Flex: Miller (x3)($21) TE: Tim Wright (X4) ($10) Def: Miami (x3) ($10) 186.3 points. 6th place. $700 on a $1 investment. Not all the rosters would of been this good... I would of had an AJ Green, Maclin, Fitz, Edelman in place of Hilton. Had CJ Anderson in place of Lamar Miller, a Denard Robsinson/C.west in place of blount in a couple... But had I stuck to my research and stuck with my core 5, I was starting off w/100 points, basically. So I would of likely have cashed in every entry, even w/some duds sprinkled in. I would of also have had some other good plays, like Marshall instead of Hilton, Forte instead of Blount or Miller, etc... Add in a few Anquan Boldin's and Kamar Aiken's who were cheap w/upside and managed double digit scores, respectable for their price tag. Titans and Ravens instead of Miami on a few. Bottom line? I was cashing in this week, potentially big, had I developed a stronger strategy. So that's the lesson. This week, I'm going to focus on building my top 5 core. In fact, I think my starting point is... QB: Hoyer vs. Miami RB: Gurley vs. Cleveland WR: Hopkins vs. Miami TE: Gates vs. Oakland Def: Giants vs Philly Since Gates costs the same as a WR and he's playing Oakland, who can't stop a TE to save their lives, I'm subbing TE in for WR2 a a lock. I may also make 2 more QB/WR stacks, in which case Hopkins will still be my WR1. Thinking about Winston and Evans, both super cheap w/upside vs. Washington. QB: Winston RB1: Gurley WR1: Hopkins WR2: Evans TE: Gates DEF: Giants... If I go this route, I'll sub in different RB2, WR3, and Flex... Just spit balling for now though. I'll continue to do my research this week and post my envisioned lineups on Saturday night for you guys to critique.
Why Dion Lewis and not Blount? I LOVED Blount this week. Anytime NE plays a weak rushing defense (Jacksonville, Indy) it's a Blount game. Anytime NE plays a team w/a stronger run D (Buffalo, Dallas), it's a Dion Lewis game due to his versatility rushing and receiving. The writing was on the wall for this week for Blount. Plus Blount was super cheap compared to his floor and ceiling, IMO. I almost went with a Brady, Blount, and Amendola stack... I figured Davis might shadow Edelman, which would make Amendola a better value w/his cheap price tag. I decided against it, mostly due to the cost of Brady and I thought Gronk would be the big beneficiary. And stacking Brady and Gronk would of been absurdly expensive. You would need 30-32 a piece to really justify it. Possible but not likely. And there were cheaper stacks available w/high ceilings and much higher floors. All in all, I'm glad I passed. Although I did have Gronk, Edelmen, and Blount sprinkled into quite a few lineups.
Well, it's going to be an interesting week in fantasy. Both yahoo and draft kings have interesting pricing. A LOT of gaps between price ranges for available players. Gates v. Oakland (w/ Keenan Allen being questionable no less), Freeman vs. Titans, and Hopkins vs. Miami, expect those three to be the top 3 most owned players in fantasy. Could be a big week for those who go "contrarian" w/other players. Week 7 values: QB: Carson Palmer is only $6700... Crazy. Palmer is a no brainer at QB w/his price and matchup. Baltimore's good run D vs. terrible secondary. Plus, you have some options at WR w/Fitz, Floyd and Brown. IMO, I would triple stack Arizona this week. Palmer and 2 of the WR's. I would also consider Aiken or Steve Smith too, since I expect Balimore is going to have to throw. RB: Todd Gurley is 5000k vs. Cleveland. He's going to be another high owned player this weekend. Considering the value, he's too good to pass up though. Lamar Miller is another good value play. Texans defense isn't that good at stopping the run or the pass. The question is, can Miami stop Foster and Hopkins? If you're a believer, Miller could put up another stat line last week as Miami stays balanced on offense. If Hopkins and Foster go wild, Miami is going to have to throw. Given his price (4600) and the fact that Gurley and Freeman will be owned quite a bit, it might be worth the gamble in tourney's. Alfred Morris is also dirt cheap (3,300). If Matt Jones is still hobbled, Morris will likely get 20+ carries this week. For that price, it's worth the risk. Tampa doesn't have a high scoring offense either. WR: Michael Floyd is 3200k. Great value and it makes sense to stack him w/Palmer,. especially if you're triple stacking. John Brown is 5,500 too. That could be a great value stack, IMO. Who do you guys like this week? IMO, This is a RB heavy week. Spend big on two backs and find value w/receivers.
Im doing a head to head on draftkings for the first time and need help bros.. So i like my draft but really want to wait for the morning to submit it to see if antonio gates plays or not. Do the auction prices change overnight? If so ill just lock in with kelce but i have an extra 100 left and gates is only 100 more than kelce.
One more noob question about draft kings.. Im in a head to head and ive paid the entry fee but the other guy hasnt. I cant withdraw because the matchup is filled right? So if he doesnt pay, does the contest just void and i get my entry fee back? Id rather just enter a contest with someone who has already paid.
Quiet day. Going to break even it appears. I'll skip my yahoo day, since no one here even plays there but me, so I'll just talk DK. The Good: - The Miami combo of Tannehill-Miller and Tannehill-Juice was successful. Not as successful as all three on one roster... - Went all in on Mike Evans, in every lineup. Coming off the bye, fully healthy, and he destroyed Washington last year. - Todd Gurley had a great day... for EVERYONE. At the 5k price tag, he was a lock. - Rams D. Dirt cheap at 2400, fantastic matchup. Seems like everyone thought the same though... The Bad: - Frank Gore had a cake match up on paper. At his price ($4900), I loved the Miller-Gurley-Gore combo. Gore got like 12.5 points. - Chris Ivory was cheap, NE's rush defense isn't great, and with the NYJ defense, I figured NYJ would be in the game all the way to the end. Chris Ivory has been elite all year he's been healthy. And I didn't think he would have high ownership, despite a nice pricetag. - Went All in w/Moncrief > Hilton. I did so for two reasons. 1). DM has caught a TD from Luck in every game they've played together. 2). Price. 3). Hilton had Devlin Breaux shadowing him for today's matchup. A mistake, obviously. The Ugly: - Matt Jones was featured in a few lineups. The logic went like this... Dirt cheap @ 3200. Alfred Morris sucks. Kirk Cousins sucks. Red Zone dutuies. And w/o Chris Thompson, Jones was going to handle CT's duties on passing downs. Smart, right? Nope... lol. Woulda coulda shoulda... - Stefon Diggs and Danny Amendola were cheap guys I liked. Diggs is the clear #1 in Minnesota against a ****ty Detroit D. And Revis was going to shadow Edelman w/Gronk getting a combination of defenders (Cromartie, Pyror, etc...) and no Dion Lewis, someone had to catch the ball. I figured DA would have some opportunities and he did. I didn't put them in any lineups though, because I didn't need to save money based on other decisions. Owell. - David Carr and Amari Cooper stack. I came very close to pulling the trigger on this one... I wanted to go "contrarian" with at least one stack. And so I began looking at QB/WR combo's. SD's pass defense is overrated, mainly because teams can just run on them. Why throw if you don't have to? I read that Oakland's RB (Murray) was somewhat in the dog house after his bad play, and Oakland might try to throw it... I decided against it though, figuring Murray would show up, just like he did vs. a crappy Cleveland defense. Just not cut out for NFL Daily Fantasy... Too much parody, IMO. I don't know how the pros do it, tbh. Killing my money leagues, but daily hasn't been profitable. I'm not in the red or anything (thanks to a strong week 4), but I'm pretty much breaking even week-to-week. Fantasy Basketball starts soon. Excited to try it.