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Where does Tannehill rank among quarterbacks today?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The Sportz Guy, Jul 11, 2015.

  1. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    So how is saying that 118 over 4 games is not statistically out of the norm for Flacco is different than saying Flacco is capable of a 4 game stretch of 118?

    That's what I've been saying you view this as and it is wrong. No one was saying 118 is beyond his abilities or outside of the standard deviation, they are saying a 4 game stretch at 118 is not indicative of his career numbers.
     
  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You mean one occurrence of 20 straight heads, I'm assuming with a fair coin so that we're measuring your ability to flip heads? I hope I'm understanding the question here because it's a bit ambiguous.

    This would use a different type of statistical analysis (Bayesian inference), but as you throw each head, the likelihood you are a person that can throw a head instead of a tail would increase, and one can calculate by how much. This is of course assuming we have NO other information.
     
  3. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    It doesn't matter to the point of the discussion. A team can play 4 playoff caliber teams during the regular season. Teams also don't get magically better after the regular season ends. This is simple and basic logic, no wonder you're laughing at it.
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    "capable" means possible. Likely in this case can be interpreted has the frequency of occurrence. Anything from 0 to a max rating of 158.3 is possible, and thus something Flacco is capable of (theoretically). But calculating the frequency (probability) with which something like that is expected to occur is what statistical analysis does.
     
  5. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Because dismissing the significance of winning and playing well in the postseason is one of the dumbest things I've ever heard on this site. "Doesn't matter" that those four games he was on fire was in the playoffs?? What the hell is wrong with you people.
     
  6. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    And that ladies and gentleman, is a person doing everything they can to not admit they made a mistake.
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    ???

    You just don't understand what I did. Let's just leave it where it is now.. we obviously interpret my post #300 differently.
     
  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Its you after all. You have no idea what in the hell you're talking about.

    Some people follow the whole conversation and some people, like you, specifically pick out my posts and find a way to do what you do.

    Playing well in one postseason does not equal an entire career, that is why it doesn't matter to the conversation.
     
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  9. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Possible =/= probable. I think this is where we're really all disagreeing.
     
  10. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    During the failure by some in this thread to prove Ryan Tannehill is a good deep ball passer, I recall the anger when discussing the "stats" when the other side would bring up the Cardinals game (2012) and called THAT an abiration. But now it's ok to chalk up 4 playoff games to such??

    Talk about having an agenda and not caring how you look to defend it.

    One game sample size matters a lot when you are in the deep ball corner, even with the blown coverage.
    Four games becomes an abiration when you are for some reason trying to convince people Ryan is better than Flacco.

    It's too funny.
     
  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I'm calculating probabilities. In fact, I'm the ONLY one here doing that. The rest of you are arguing based on intuition.
     
  12. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    WTF are even talking about?

    What is actually accurate is that you and your ilk, think Wallace's 2012 in Pit was an aberration, but somehow now, 4 games is not.


    This is how stupid your games are.
     
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  13. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No one questioned probabilities, that's partly why you're the "only" one doing that.
     
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  14. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Within the past week you have said that opponents are no tougher in the post season than they are in the regular season, and that when judging a QBs resume being good in the playoffs doesn't matter.

    Do you realize that the object of the game is to win the Super Bowl? To do that you must win in the postseason, I'd say the postseason matters. But maybe I'm wrong and the object is to rack up as many regular season stats as possible then use that to decide who's best.
     
  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I thought the conversation was started around a quite that went something like "I hope Tannehill can play to Flacco's level." The response was, he is playing at Flacco's level.

    As to as Tannehill's deep ball, the argument has always been that he is league average to those not named Wallace. The end.
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Oh they were questioned all right.. last few pages of questions.
     
  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But you're using probability to mean possible. I'm not. Something may be probable, but not likely. If you're expectation is that Flacco will play closer to a 118 than an 84, that's fine...but it's not supported by his career averages.
     
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  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Again, there is a context to what I said, that you're knowingly leaving out, because you have this deep hole in your life that you can only fill with being a douche to me on the message board. Its SOP with you.
     
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  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    We're questioning your application of these probabilities.
     
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  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No resnor, probable and likely are synonymous. There is only a technical distinction in statistics: we talk about probabilities of events, while we talk about likelihoods of hypothesis. And no I never said or implied probable = possible. And I never said one should "expect" a 4-game stretch of Flacco to have an average of 118. I said (repeatedly) that Flacco having such a 4-game stretch was not improbable enough to say it's an aberration.
     
  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    What specifically? I calculated the probability of a 4-game stretch with mean 118 given Flacco's playoff record. That directly answers a question that was posed.
     
  22. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    The fact his coaches and the national media have recognized it as a problem kind of disproves that it is some conspiracy.

    The end.
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I still believe that we're saying different things, but using the same words, probably because of our different backgrounds. You are saying that it's not an aberration because it's statistically possible. I'm saying it is an aberration because it is much different than his normal averages. We aren't going to agree, I guess. Perhaps these words mean specific things to you, and you can't get around that to understand what I'm saying.

    Bottom line, Flacco having for games in a row over 100, averaging 118, is not something that anyone should expect Flacco to do. Therefore, I look at it as an outlier, or as I called it, an aberration. It very well may be statistically possible, but I don't believe it to be likely to occur.
     
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  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    And quotes have been taken out of context, or twisted by you and others, to try to prove that the coaches were blaming Tannehill. How many of those quotes, by the way, were in regards to Tannehill to Wallace?
     
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  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's statistically not unlikely enough to say it's an aberration. Again, not arguing "possible" because that's as obvious as it can get.. it actually occurred!
     
  26. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Giving yourself too much credit, I comment on the post not the poster. You just happen to make sillier comments than most.
     
  27. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    An average of 118 is 30 points higher than his average postseason rating (34 regular season). Of course, his average includes that 2012 span. So, comparing the 2012 rating to all other years, it's even a little more than 30. Statistically possibly or not, I'm not sure how you can argue that it isn't, at this point in time, an outlier.
     
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  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    False.
     
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  29. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Ask an adult to explain to you how you contradict yourself in this post. Then ask them to explain what contradiction means.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    What was the standard deviation? Yup, over 37. Easy to argue (of course that's for a single game only).
     
  31. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Who cares whats likely to occur? Do you know what highly unlikely to occur based on probabilities? That Ryan Tannehill will ever become anything other than mediocre. Somebody did a statistical model that showed Tannehill would become an "aberration" if he overcame the long odds and became an elite QB. And that was after his 2013 season. The odds have only become much longer now.

    If I had to choose between Flacco having a 4 game stretch of 115 passer rating or whatever or Tannehill becoming elite that would be a pretty easy choice for me.
     
  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You don't get it. You have proven it's statistically possible. However, it's simply not realistic to expect that level of play, consistently, from Flacco. That is the difference between our points of view.

    I guess agree to disagree.
     
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  33. Fin Fan In Cali

    Fin Fan In Cali Dolphin fan since 1970 Luxury Box

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    I think Ryan will have a better year than last year with the WR's, and RB's. If they can sign Mathis I think his protection will be better for a successful year.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2015
  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I have proven it's statistically likely enough (never argued "possible"). I don't think you understand what I did. Yeah, probably best to move on now.
     
  35. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Your guys love for each other is too cute.
     
  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    This whole argument is over what is likely to occur.

    And no one in here is arguing whether or not Tannehill will be elite. This started as arguing whether or Tannehill is on the same level, currently, as Flacco.
     
  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Do you understand what I just did here?
     
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  38. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    No wonder you two are so good for eachother, you both lack interpretation skills.

    I replied to HIS post when I made the earlier comment, it was stupid and I pointed that out. If DJ or yourself would've made a similar statement I would've laughed at you also. He believes I seeked HIM out in that instance, I clearly did not.

    Simply.....commented on his post.
     
  39. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Whoa whoa whoa!!!
     
  40. Fin Fan In Cali

    Fin Fan In Cali Dolphin fan since 1970 Luxury Box

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    Hello my Cali brother! Good to see you again!:knucks:
     

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