For me both, you need to have at least two of 100 receptions, 1,000 yrds or 10 TDs for a WR to have an "amazing" season.
It may not be 1995, but last season only 11 guys threw for 4k or better...And none of them but Tannehill would anyone on here call "average."
Leading up to the draft, I was saying the same thing. I was pointing out that one of the biggest improvements in the Dolphins offense had been in the running game and that Tannehill, not being a Luck or Manning as you point out, would be better served by a more balanced approach that featured more running and more play-action to avoid him being the limiting factor on the offense. It just makes no sense to funnel the entire offense through a guy who may not have the skills of a Luck or Manning. Some posters agreed with that and as I recall I had 2-3 people on my side, you may have been one of them. However, Miami did not address the O-line much through the draft thus I doubt we're going to see the running we both want so I think at this point we are both holding our breath hoping all the new weapons overcome the issues. They drafted 1 Guard in the middle rounds who I think looks very suspect. They chose to spend their 1st round pick on a WR and went on a spree collecting new weapons for Tannehill. If the Dolphins were going to commit to a more balanced offense that featured more play-action, we'd have seen then go out and get a quality Guard in FA or use one of the top 2 picks at the position. They didn't do that. They drafted Ajayi late but said flat out that he was a value pick and not someone who they targeted as a feature player in some plan.
I don't know whether it would help or hurt your argument but a fairer way to present that is to say he was X standard deviations away from the average and compare that to other QBs who played the majority of their team's season. Of QBs who attempted at least 350 passes, Tannehill ranked 11 out of 25 in total yards. His 4,045 was about 200 yards more than the average, which equates to about 12 yards per game. The top passer was 1.54 stdev's above the average, Tannehill was 0.3. He ranked just above Flacco, Cutler and Romo. It's also true that he had more more attempts than most so his total yardage was inflated relative to the rest. He was actually 5th from the bottom on that list in yards-per-attempt, ranking just above Blake Bortles, Kyle Orton, Derek Carr and Jay Cutler. Tannehill was just under Geno Smith and Cam Newton. Those were the only 7 QBs of 25 that were under 7.0 yards per attempt. The best were Romo with 8.5 and Rodgers with 8.4. It's pretty clear that what was lacking were the big plays that could've added 300 or so yards to the total and helped the YPA just a bit. If Tannehill does that this year, I'll consider him the equal of Stafford, Ryan, and so many others that have proven successful in the NFL over their 6-7 seasons.
I don't really care about deviations from "average." The argument keeps popping up that it's easy to throw for 4k now, but Tannehill was one of only 11 guys to do it last year. Brees Roethlisberger Luck Manning Matt Ryan Eli Manning Rodgers Rivers Stafford Brady Those are the other 10. That's pretty good company. I don't see a list of "average" QBs.
Agreed... The 4K mark is not average at all. Tannehill was 1 of 11 QBs to pass for 4K yards last season. The Others in descending order are Brees, Rothy, Luck, PManning, MRyan, EManning, Rodgers, Rivers, Stafford, and Brady. In 2013, there were only 9 QBs who reach 4K yards. Tannehill missed the mark by 87 yards or he'd have been 10th.
Tannehill threw for 4,045 yards. Amongst QBs with at least 350 pass attempts, the NFL average was 3,827 yards. Tannehill ranked 11th out of 25 based on net yards, however that doesn't include how many attempts he got to reach that number. Tannehill ranked 21st out of 25 in yards per attempt. Tannehill ranked 22nd out of 25 in yards per completion. Basic stats. No need for story-telling or myth-making. Just state the facts and interpret them instead of selectively presenting certain stats in a way that supports a given argument or opinion.
Trying to portray him as average, despite throwing for 4k, is the very definition of story-telling. You think he's average, so you try to present everything about him in an average way. The fact is, HE THREW FOR 4000 YARDS last season, one of only 11 QBs to do that. He also averaged over a 7ypa for the vast majority of the season.
Take the QBs who threw for less than 4k, and tell me what their average was? What was the average of QBs who didn't eclipse 4k?
Well, Brady ranked 10th out of that 25 in net yards, he's also less than 0.5 std of the 3,847 yards average, Brady's 16th out of 25 on yards per attempt, so I guess based on the stats you chose, Tannehill is extremely close to Brady in ability?
These basic numbers must really irritate you, huh? I'll eventually leave but the numbers won't. I'm not concluding anything about Tannehill in the above post yet because of the numebrs I'm showing here, you take it as an insult to Tannehill...maybe that says something?
Average for those over 4k (that threw at least 350 times) is 4463, with std of 344. Average for all others was 3240 with std of 346. EDIT!! I accidentally included one below 4k. Correct stats: those over 4k average = 4507 with std of 324, and for those below 4k, average was 3293, with std of 388. Sorry!
If those stats speak to "ability," then yes. You have to choose a metric and then interpret what that metric indicates. Last I checked, there is no metric for "ability" but if yardage is it, then yeah, we can say with confidence that we just proved Tannehill is equal to Brady. But who's to say what the hell exactly these metrics of total yards, yards per attempt and yards per completion speak to? Half the people won't even agree to look at the numbers to begin with, lol. Interpreting a single metric in addition to what the metric really says...could this forum manage that?!
You know.. a statistician looking at your numbers could say no QB was statistically speaking above average haha! It's actually a pretty flat distribution, I'm surprised.
Who said anything about ability? The while 4k thing is reference to those saying that it's easy, or that average QBs are doing it. Maybe it was that you went on to try to extrapolate the stat into something other than yards, to again place Tannehill in an average light. Fact is, eclipsed 4k yards, something only seemingly above average/great QBs did last season. So, Tannehill was well above the average that the average QBs were getting. Thanks. Again, who said anything about measuring ability?
Ha! Nice...I need some guys throwing for 8k yards I guess! But yeah I think the yards per completion is pretty damning. That's where Tannehill all of a sudden goes way down the list. I mistakenly ranked him a little high. He was actually 23rd out of 25 guys in that stat. The fact that seems to correlate exactly with what people complain about is pretty scary. When the stats support the unruly mob we might have problems!
Let me run through the numbers on the completion percentages because it's blowing me away that virtually everyone is over 60% and most are at 63 or 64. I thought Tannehill 66% was elite...no way.
The YPA numbers on Tannehill are well known. It's no revelation to anyone. That being said, after the first the games or so of last year, Tannehill played to like a 7.3 average. One line of thought is that correlates to acclimating to the new offense.
Ok, so Tannehill was 23rd out of 25 in yards-per-completion and 21st out of 25 in yards-per-attempt. In terms of completion percentage, Tannehill was actually 4th, I'm surprised. To put that in perspective though 6 other QBs were within 2% of reaching his mark. Actually 15 of the 25 were above 63% so I'm not sure Tannehill's completion percentage was so epic. His greatness seemed to have a lot of company and he edged some of those guys out by a seemingly insignificant amount. So whatever good there was in the increased completion percentage, it seems to be wiped away by the bad yards-per-completion and yards-per-attempt. It's give and take so we'd have to ask which is more important. Is there some correlation with winning I wonder? We can figure it out.
Well.. Greg should confirm this but I got 63.46 % completion as the average for 350+ pass attempts, with 3.63 std. So, Tannehill is doing relatively well at 66.4% and ranks 5th out of 25.
Perhaps. But that is a different argument then "it's so easy, anyone can do it" that has been thrown around here.
5th.. Romo, Brees, Roethlisberger and Rivers before him: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/completionPct
Yards per attempt seems to matter most: http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/ YPA has a 0.43 correlation, comp % has 0.32 correlation and passing yards has a 0.16 correlation with wins for QB's that started at least 14 games in a season from 1990-2011.
I'm not surprised that completion percentage isn't a good predictor of winning. That seems almost intuitive. I'm wondering why yards-per-attempt seems so widely used as opposed to yards-per-completion? No one even incorporates yards-per-completion into their analysis...what am I missing here? The above article replaces both with adjusted net yards which is fudging the yards-per-attempt to include some information about TDs and sacks. That's fair. You can certainly find a million ways to scramble things up obviously. Using a quick calculation of 2014 data I see that: Yards-per-attempt had a 0.66 CC with winning percentage (Tannehill ranked 21st of 25) Yards-per completion had a CC of 0.50 (Tannehill ranked 23rd of 25) Total yards had a CC of 0.44 (Tanehill ranked 11th of 25) Completion percentage had a CC of just 0.32. (Tannehill ranked 4th of 25) I wonder if that holds in the long run over say, a decade's worth of data, or if yards-per-completion gains some ground? Either way, it's clear that the two stats which show Tannehill ranked 21st and 23rd out of 25 are both much more important than those which rank Tannehill amongst the league's better half. That's not surprising considering that total yards is a stat which doesn't factor in how many games someone played or how many pass attempts they had--both very basic elements you'd need to know.
What are Ryans 3rd down numbers while you guys have all these tabs up. That's what is called the "money down" in the NFL. The best way to win is to win 3rd down on offense and defense. Must get better.
Oh, and resnor keeps pointing out the difference in yards-per-attempt between the early and late games so I'll look into that although I'm well aware that cherry-picking data is going down a rabbit hole of questionable ideas. I don't know how many other QBs were going through similar periods. If your change the data for one you have to going through and do it for many others if not all of them to make it fair and that's a lot of work. For what it's worth, you guys may want to look at the NFL in terms of yards-per-attempt. You'd be surprised...Russel Wilson and Brian Hoyer are #8 and #9 on the list. Teddy Bridgewater is #14 just ahead of Flacco and Stafford.
They should incorporate it (why not right?), but I'd say you'd want to look at YPA anyway because that's a better measure of the efficiency of the passing game. YPC conditions on the pass being completed, but doesn't tell you how many errant throws were needed before you got a completion, while YPA is sensitive to that. So I think that's intuitively the more informative stat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHEg3zOlSDQ&app=desktop there is a little back shoulder treat in there from Parker..watch closely.
tannehills game last year would not of been good enough to take Seattle to the Super Bowl...he had no receivers if he played there, and poor protection, that team needed a playmaker at qb because of the lack of sufficient nfl weapons and got it in spades in Wilsons skill set.. wilsons playmaking ability was a huge difference maker on that team, ryans inability to make plays on his own, quite frankly wasn't very good... lets hope year four he gets it.
agreed, run the ball more, force tannehill to run the read option more..and roll him out more than once a freakin game.
Can you imagine if Parker can make these catches against most NFL DB's? Man, we will have hit on a great 1st round pick if that turns out to be the case. I still have to temper my enthusiasm a bit until I see how he handles NFL DB's, but it's looking good so far!
You know.. all this talk about run the ball more, having more balance etc.. is justified to some degree, but I'd also caution against overvaluing it. Our division just got stronger on the D-Line, and you tend to want to attack the weaknesses of your opponent, not their strengths. So, the effect of having a good running game (against "average" defenses) may not yield as much value in our division as it would otherwise. I think the running game is important to keep defenses honest, but we may be forced to win with Tannehill more than with our RB's.. just saying.
I think it's a little bit here and there...enough to create some play-action opportunities that could result in those 4-5 big plays that seem to be missing each year. I also believe those plays will go a long way in removing some of the overly aggressive pass rush Tannehill faces week-in, week-out. I showed that in 2014 Miami was about 56% pass where as teams like Indy and Detroit were at 60% or above. I think Stafford was throwing the ball like 64% of the time--simply insane. Anyhow, Miami is already pretty balanced obviously. I think they just need to work the play-action game a bit more and that might require a few more runs. Then again, they haven't had the inside guy for that kind of stuff. Lamar Miller is not a great inside RB. I'm less concerned with his ability to produce between the tackles and more concerned with his ability to stay healthy. I think the coaches avoided running Miller inside because of that. Miller isn't a big guy and they had no great back-up. Now they have Ajayi...maybe we'll get some inside runs and some play-action of it!
why do you say that?, just because of the way he adjusts to the ball?, his radius?... i ask because of this, back shoulder throws, jump balls, fade routes, these are more individualistic type throws and catches, are you concerned with it affecting the rhythm of the offense.?
