Rumor: Dolphins close to deal with Crabtree ($3.5-4 million a year)

You're close. The benchmarks are efficiency (yards per target) and expected points added, irrespective of touchdowns. Kenny Stills for example was extremely efficient and led the league in expected points added per play in both 2013 and 2014, though his number of touchdowns was relatively low.

Think about it like this -- if a wide receiver catches a 98-yard pass and gets tackled at the one yard line, and a fullback runs it into the end zone on the following play, what sort of credit should that receiver get in terms of "points"? Obviously a great deal.

Hartline had back-to-back thousand-yard seasons in 2012 and 2013, but his efficiency and expected points added were relatively poor both years. When his volume decreased a great deal in 2014 (where it would've likely been in 2015, as well) and his efficiency and expected points added remained about the same, his 2015 cap hit became far out of proportion to his contribution, as a function of either volume or efficiency.

What's so great about the team nowadays is that there seems to be someone running the show who has his finger on the pulse of these sorts of things and is devoting a great deal of analysis to them.

 

The important word is "WAS".

Hartline never had speed or power. The one thing he had was the ability to make a sharp cutback, which allowed him to be great on comeback sideline routes.

After his season-ending knee injury, Hartline no longer has that ability. Hartline is now just a slow guy running in a straight line, tripping over blades of grass. No speed, no power, no cutback ability. Hartline no longer offers anything special on the field.

Crabtree is also coming off a serious injury (achilles), and has lost a step. But the difference is that Crabtree still plays with power. He's still stiff-arming NFL defenders into the ground. He can still take a 20-30 yd pass, stiff arm a guy into the ground, and run another 20-30 yds.


All the below Crabtree plays are post-achilles injury. (Crabtree's achilles surgery was on May 22, 2013).


November 16 , 2014 (49ers vs Giants; only a few months ago):

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-...s-Play-Kaepernick-plants-Crabtree-in-end-zone


December 2 , 2013

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/0ap2000000291471/QB-Kaepernick-to-WR-Crabtree-60-yd-pass


October 13 , 2014

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-...Kaepernick-32-yard-touchdown-pass-to-Crabtree


January 5 , 2014

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000309633/Michael-Crabtree-22-yard-catch


December 23 , 2013

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000303585/Crabtree-47-yard-reception


All those Crabtree plays are post-achilles injury.

Sure, Crabtree has lost a step. Nobody is saying that Crabtree is megatron. It's just that he's a good fit for Tannehill's skillset, he can still produce, he can still get open, he still plays with strength, he won't be expensive (important, considering Suh's monster contract), he's only 27, he'll be a good bang-for-the-buck, and he's an upgrade over post-injury Brian Hartline.

 

Brian "what's yac?" Hartline

 

Agreed. And truth be told, the odds of Cooper or White getting to 14 are long. And we don't have the trade bait to move up close enough to get either. I suppose we could part with our second, but that's asking a lot. If one were to fall, I have to imagine Miami would seriously consider them and Crabtree's one year deal wouldn't stand in the way. I do think this shuts the door on Parker though. At least, I hope it does.

 

If one of the three top WRs fall to 14 we gotta take it, which makes Crabtree expendable anyway. We did it a a few years ago with Ocho. Hartline was clearly the better receiver and we dropped Ocho. I can see the same thing with Crabtree. Just because we sign him doesn't mean he's good enough to make the team. We can cut his arse too. Sign him, draft the best WR and let the chips fall where they may

 

I just took a glance at NFL.com's 4 mock drafts..

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/mock-drafts

- Daniel Jeremiah: Amari Cooper #4, Kevin White #10

- Charley Casserly: Kevin White #4, Amari Cooper #16

- Brian Baldinger: Kevin White #4, Amari Cooper #11

- Lance Zierlein: Amari Cooper #4, Kevin White #10

So it's not a scientific approach, but in all four scenarios, Miami would just have to move from #14 to #10 to grab either Amari Cooper or Kevin White.

Considering that we moved from #12 to #3 to pick Dion Jordan, it's not completely unrealistic that Miami moves up a few spots to grab Amari Cooper or Kevin White.

 

And Hartline's DVOA numbers were actually quite a bit better with Moore/Henne/Pennington throwing him the ball. They aren't that much worse with Tannehill but they certainly aren't as improved as they should be if Tannehill really is the second coming.

Look at Golden Tate's DVOA ranking as an example:
2011- 75th
2012- 4th
2013- 19th
2014- 31st

Same coach between 2011 and 2012 so its not coaching. I think its pretty obvious the QB plays a big role in a receiver's efficiency ranking. I think what you can conclude from those numbers is Golden Tate is a pretty good receiver. And Russell Wilson is a top end QB.

Wallace's year over year DVOA ranking:
2009- 4th
2010- 1st
2011- 8th
2012- 78th
2013- 75th
2014- 19th (Good for the highest ranked receiver in Tannehill's career)

Conclusion: Wallace has the potential to be elite. Roethlisberger definitely is elite.

 

ocho dropped his fiancee that's why we dropped him........ if this team goes wr in round one it's another missed playoff year.

 

are weeeeee still close to a deal with this guy!?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

The Dion Jordan situation was different. Ireland was GM and we have two second rounders and two third rounders IRRC. We have only a 1st and 2nd this season. If we were to make a jump, it likely costs us a valuable second round pick, in a draft that should be loaded with talent by the time we pick in the 2nd. It's not impossible Miami jumps from 14, but I think it's unlikely.

 

See? Still playing with power

 

Casserly was a TERRIBLE GM, and now he posts terrible mock drafts...

Cooper falling to 16?

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

 

The Dolphins do not have a third round pick and it is not likely that an exchange of first round picks and a fourth round pick will give the Dolphins enough ammunition to move up and draft either White or Cooper.

The Dolphins just have far too many holes to give up their second round pick for a WR. So unless Cooper or White are available when the Dolphins are on the clock at 14, they need to draft another position and ensure they keep their second round pick.

I believe the trade for Stills was the draft pick they intend to use for a WR this year and it would actually be quite surprising to me if they do draft another WR in this years draft.

 

Boy, you don't get along with anyone here, do ya?
But I forgot, it's "Our House" still laughing about how dumb that remark was. But anyway, if you don't think 1000 yards receiving is any kind of benchmark you are clueless and clearly lost watching this game. No, a 1000 doesn't make you the best in the game or guarantee the Pro Bowl or the SB, but it says you're pretty damned good at doing your job. Yes, Hartline didn't find the end zone too often, his lack of speed inside the 20, THills decision making in the red zone, lack of size and no threat from the other WR side all contribute. Hartline moved the chains for a guy who didn't really get any help until Wallace arrived. He made some of the most incredible sideline catches I've seen in a Fins uniform the last 15 years. You need WRs like that. Hartline is trending down imo, his injury cost him something, not to mention he keeps tripping over a blade of grass after he catches the ball, so I think it was a smart move to move on, but please, you catch for a 1000 two years in a row, you're a good WR. And if anyone disagree's....GET THE HELL OUT OF "OUR HOUSE!!!" BwaaaaWaaaHaaaa

 

Crabtree is a good YAC receiver. Like it or not, we are a dink and dunk offense until Tannehill proves otherwise. I think Crabtree fits like a glove for the short yardage game. Great signing in my opinion.

This ultimately gives us some flexibility in the draft. With Stills, Landry, Crabapple, and Matthews in the mix along with Hazel we should be in good shape. I hate to say it, but we need to draft the best offensive lineman with our first pick. Protecting Tannehill should be the top priority. We don't know what Albert is going to do, Billy Turner is unproven. We need to continue to solidify the O-line until it is comfortably where we want it to be. The way we have operated in free agency suggests to me that we will be building an elite offensive line via draft until further notice. Patchwork on the O-line just isn't getting it at this point. We need mainstays on that unit, and I think Dallas showed the blueprint to success. They built their line through the draft and it is probably the best in the league. Daniel Thomas could run for 1500 yards behind that line, and Romo is no longer running for his life. We play the Jets and Bills twice a year. Its something to think about.

 

Whether the Dolphins draft a receiver early depends on the length of the contract Crabtree signs (if he signs) in my opinion. If he's viewed as a one-year stopgap, then the team will want to groom someone to take his place next year. What's important to remember is that the receiving corps as a group (WRs and TEs) have become more important than they used to be, given the emphasis on the passing game and how related it is to winning.

 

Look here, however: http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/08/offensive-line-salary-and-performance.html

 

Given the delay here, this Crabtree thing is starting to have the look of information leaked by his agent to the media, mentioning the Dolphins' monetary offer, to create demand elsewhere and a bidding war to drive up the price.

 

Agree because I can't find any other info coming out of Dolphin land.

 

I don't think Hartline is quite as bad as FinD thinks, but he's no where near the "damn good" level. Any NFL caliber WR can make a few great catches. However, most NFL caliber WR's average more than 2 TD's and 45YPG per season. Especially when they play with horrible WR's.

 

Again, yardage alone is not the way to measure the value of a receiver. If any NFL-caliber receiver was targeted enough times, presumably he'd catch a thousand yards worth of passes. The better measures are how efficient he is (yards per target) and how meaningful his catches and plays are (expected points added per play). Kenny Stills was quite the get in these areas.

 

No. It was a nothing report based on a bad tweet that misheard Clayton in the first place.

 

I agree that yards aren't the only way to judge a WR if you're using a small sample. However, Hartline's career average is about 45YPG with 2 TD's per season. He's not very good.

 

Deion Branch and Tom Brady are an interesting case study in the effect the QB has on a receiver's DVOA.

DVOA Rank:
2011- 39th (Brady)
2010- 5th (Brady)
2009- 76th (Hasselbeck)
2008- 69th (Wallace)
2007- 44th (Hasselbeck)
2006- 51st (Hasselbeck)
2005- 16th (Brady)
2004- 10th (Brady)
2003- 44th (Brady)

Its no coincidence both Deion Branch and Randy Moss had their best seasons with Brady throwing them the ball.

Hartline:
2009- 9th (Henne)
2010- 34th (Henne)
2011- 26th (Moore)
2012- 43rd (Tannehill)
2013- 51st (Tannehill)
2014- 41st (Tannehill)

 

Wow.. that's an interesting result. The guy is looking at correlations of cap hit for offensive line vs. offensive performance (different metrics), and found that: 1) the correlations were generally weak, and 2) more money for OL correlated with worse performance, with median overall OL salary doing best.

I guess that begs the question what the reason for that is. Having a salary cap means it's a zero-sum game, so more spent on more important positions might leave less for OL, and/or it's far easier to find good OL in the lower rounds of the draft (intuitively true, but not sure what stats back that up), thus freeing up money elsewhere.

Good find either way!

 

Just to point out.. Tannephins and I had a discussion about the "objectivity" (or lack thereof) of DVOA in this thread (from post #28-#64):
http://www.thephins.com/forums/show...lphins-Most-Ready-to-Challenge-Patriots/page2

There's no evidence as of yet it's an actual "stat", but because it uses information in some systematic (yet unspecified) way and is based on stats that correlate with win %, the proper way to reference it is like talking about pff rankings - there's something there worth mentioning but it's not clear exactly what it means.

 

A finding consistent with social loafing theory in my opinion. If there is no "strongest link(s)" on the line, as measured by a salary for one or more of them that's well above that of the other linemen, then the group of them has to band together and give more effort individually to do their job.

 

If he were being targeted only about four or five times a game on average, that would be tremendous, but he's been targeted far more than that, and so those numbers suggest inefficiency.

 

There is no evidence any stat is an "actual stat." A lot of people still don't believe passer rating is an "actual stat." I do because its proven itself to correlate with QB play over time. Here is a list of QBs compiled using nothing but passer rating stats:

Aaron Rodgers
Joe Montana
Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Steve Young
Drew Brees
Kurt Warner
Ben Roethlisberger
Phillip Rivers
Russell Wilson


Pretty powerful right? All SB winners except one. If you can come up with a stat thats predictive to that degree you've got something. Same with Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, here is a list of the top passing defenses over the years:

2014: Buffalo Bills 9-7 missed playoffs
2013: Seattle Seahawks 13-3 Super Bowl Champions
2012: Chicago Bears 10-6 missed playoffs
2011: Baltimore Ravens 12-4 AFC Championship
2010: Green Bay Packers 10-6 Super Bowl Champions
2009: NY Jets 9-7 AFC Championship
2008: Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 Super Bowl Champions
2007 Tennesee Titans 10-6 Wildcard
2006 Chicago Bears 13-3 Super Bowl Appearance
2005 Chicago Bears 11-5 Divisional Round
2004 Buffalo Bills 9-7 missed playoffs

Ahh, the poor Bills. Lead the league in that stat and teams have gone to the SB almost 50% of the time, those teams reach the playoffs over 80% of the time, and those teams reach double digit wins over 70% of the time. The Bills are 0 for 2 thanks to craptastic QB play while having a championship caliber defense.

 

Passer rating has a defined formula that everyone can use to get the same result (just like mean, variance, etc..). Those are actual stats because they are defined. DVOA methodology is hidden, so we don't know what they're doing. And there are enough examples of people claiming they have a new "objective" method of ranking where it just turns out they are hiding their subjective biases in clever ways. That's why you need transparency, and the DVOA guys aren't giving us that.

Also, it's really very easy to come up with any ranking that seems to "predict" what you want to predict well. Just try it yourself: rank who you think (subjectively) are the best QB's or best defenses and compare that to what you think might be a good list by someone (or something) else. I'm sure you'll do a good job, so that's not a feather in anyone's cap.

 

How you interpret it is subjective. When Tannehill's rating was in the low 80's it was viewed as nothing but a team stat by a lot of Dolphin fans. Now that Tannehill is in the 90's all of a sudden its evidence he's a good QB. I subjectively decided which passer rating stats to use to create that above list (simply multiple seasons of 100+ passer rating). If I wanted to include Marino I could adjust my criteria slightly. I believe Football Outsiders is doing a similar exercise, they subjectively decide where to draw the line on value but in the end the criteria used is the same for all players.

 

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's not what they're doing. You're talking about setting a single threshold. They seem to be setting a huge number of what seem to be arbitrary weights on things + several thresholds. For example:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

"Red zone plays get a bonus: 20 percent for team offense, five percent for team defense, and 10 percent for individual players."

Just take that quote. Exactly how are they getting the specific numbers 20%, 5%, 10% etc.. once you look at red zone plays (one of their thresholds)? That's just one example out of many. What I think they're doing is just trying out a ton of different numbers until they get a final result that seems reasonable.

So, while your argument about the arbitrariness of subjective thresholds people use given the passer rating formula is spot on (have no disagreements there), the problem with DVOA lies in DVOA itself: it's just not clear what it is.

 

So I guess we're not going to use the 7 million we saved to get anyone else huh.. maybe they'll just focus on Tannehill's extension with that money saved and draft receiver.

 

Yeah, things are a bit slow lately.. I'm hoping we sign Wisniewski, but for some reason there's no news about him even though there seems to be a lot of interest.

 

This here, though, at the link quoted above, refers directly to win probability added:

 

I don't know this except by a hunch, but I have a feeling they aren't done tinkering yet...It may be add'l FAs or re-signing guys or even rolling what's left to next year, but somehow Tbaum has me wondering if he's really done...

 

I know there are a lot of people on this forum who want the Dolphins to go ahead and sign Tannehill to a new contract.

I just don't see the big hurry. He is already signed for this coming season and the Dolphins have the team option to pick up his contract for 2016. All they have to do is notify him by May that they are going to pick up his contract and he will get paid in 2016 around the same amount of money he would make if he signs a new contract.

He is going into his fourth year as a starter next year and he needs to prove that he can lead this team to a winning season. Signing a QB who has never led his team to a single winning season to a huge contract just doesn't make sense at this time.

 

Yeah, what they do once they have "success value" is not a problem. It's the arbitrariness of the "success values" that's the problem.

The best mathematical analog I can think of is Bayesian inference. Once you assign the initial (prior) probabilities, every step after that is well-defined and mathematically valid. The problem is that the priors are totally subjective (in most cases). So, it's a clever way of hiding subjective reasoning. The exception with Bayesian inference is when you can argue the priors are objective (you set up the experiment so that you know the initial probabilities.. like for a roulette wheel, or for a typical card game).

 

In 2012 1/4 of those yards came out of one game against the Cardinals. He would mostly putter along the rest of the season. He is a finesse guy in a physical game. His route running was fun to watch, but that was it. He would catch it, and shrink.