This should be our #1 pick imo

Eww MAtt Ryan. Guy is a TO machine.

Lets wait for Sam Bradford.

 

if you could point me toward the breakdown it would be much appreciated. i was going to go breakdown everything myself, but i would prefer to save myself the time.

 

1 1 JaMarcus Russell Louisiana State Oakland Raiders
1 22 Brady Quinn Notre Dame Cleveland Browns
2 36 Kevin Kolb Houston Philadelphia Eagles
2 40 John Beck Brigham Young Miami Dolphins
2 43 Drew Stanton Michigan State Detroit Lions
3 92 Trent Edwards Stanford Buffalo Bills
5 151 Jeff Rowe Nevada-Reno Cincinnati Bengals
5 174 Troy Smith Ohio State Baltimore Ravens
6 205 Jordan Palmer Texas-El Paso Washington Redskins
7 217 Tyler Thigpen Coastal Carolina Minnesota Vikings
2006 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 3 Vince Young Texas Tennessee Titans
1 10 Matt Leinart USC Arizona Cardinals
1 11 Jay Cutler Vanderbilt Denver Broncos
2 49 Kellen Clemens Oregon New York Jets
2 64 Tarvaris Jackson Alabama State Minnesota Vikings
3 81 Charlie Whitehurst Clemson San Diego Chargers
3 85 Brodie Croyle Alabama Kansas City Chiefs
5 148 Ingle Martin Furman Green Bay Packers
5 164 Omar Jacobs Bowling Green State Pittsburgh Steelers
6 194 Bruce Gradkowski Toledo Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7 223 D.J. Shockley Georgia Atlanta Falcons
2005 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 Alex Smith Utah San Francisco 49ers
1 24 Aaron Rodgers California Green Bay Packers
1 25 Jason Campbell Auburn Washington Redskins
3 67 Charlie Frye Akron Cleveland Browns
3 69 Andrew Walter Arizona State Oakland Raiders
3 85 David Greene Georgia Seattle Seahawks
4 106 Kyle Orton Purdue Chicago Bears
4 121 Stefan LeFors Louisville Carolina Panthers
5 145 Dan Orlovsky Connecticut Detroit Lions
5 152 Adrian McPherson Florida State New Orleans Saints
6 213 Derek Anderson Oregon State Baltimore Ravens
7 230 Matt Cassel USC New England Patriots
7 250 Ryan Fitzpatrick Harvard St. Louis Rams
2004 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 Eli Manning Mississippi San Diego Chargers
1 4 Philip Rivers North Carolina State New York Giants
1 11 Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) Pittsburgh Steelers
1 22 J.P. Losman Tulane Buffalo Bills
3 90 Matt Schaub Virginia Atlanta Falcons
4 106 Luke McCown Louisiana Tech Cleveland Browns
5 148 Craig Krenzel Ohio State Chicago Bears
6 185 Andy Hall Delaware Philadelphia Eagles
6 187 Josh Harris Bowling Green State Baltimore Ravens
6 193 Jim Sorgi Wisconsin Indianapolis Colts
6 201 Jeff Smoker Michigan State St. Louis Rams
7 202 John Navarre Michigan Arizona Cardinals
7 217 Cody Pickett Washington San Francisco 49ers
7 218 Casey Bramlet Wyoming Cincinnati Bengals
7 225 Matt Mauck Louisiana State Denver Broncos
7 248 B.J. Symons Texas Tech Houston Texans
7 250 Bradlee Van Pelt Colorado State Denver Broncos
2003 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 Carson Palmer USC Cincinnati Bengals
1 7 Byron Leftwich Marshall Jacksonville Jaguars
1 19 Kyle Boller California Baltimore Ravens
1 22 Rex Grossman Florida Chicago Bears
3 88 Dave Ragone Louisville Houston Texans
3 97 Chris Simms Texas Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4 110 Seneca Wallace Iowa State Seattle Seahawks
5 163 Brian St. Pierre Boston College Pittsburgh Steelers
6 192 Drew Henson Michigan Houston Texans
6 200 Brooks Bollinger Wisconsin New York Jets
6 201 Kliff Kingsbury Texas Tech New England Patriots
7 232 Gibran Hamdan Indiana Washington Redskins
7 241 Ken Dorsey Miami (Fla.) San Francisco 49ers
2002 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 David Carr Fresno State Houston Texans
1 3 Joey Harrington Oregon Detroit Lions
1 32 Patrick Ramsey Tulane Washington Redskins
3 81 Josh McCown Sam Houston State Arizona Cardinals
4 108 David Garrard East Carolina Jacksonville Jaguars
4 117 Rohan Davey Louisiana State New England Patriots
5 137 Randy Fasani Stanford Carolina Panthers
5 158 Kurt Kittner Illinois Atlanta Falcons
5 163 Brandon Doman Brigham Young San Francisco 49ers
5 164 Craig Nall Northwestern State-Louisiana Green Bay Packers
6 186 J.T. O'Sullivan California-Davis New Orleans Saints
7 216 Seth Burford Cal Poly-S.L.O. San Diego Chargers
7 232 Jeff Kelly Southern Mississippi Seattle Seahawks
7 235 Ronald Curry North Carolina Oakland Raiders
7 236 Wes Pate Stephen F. Austin St. Baltimore Ravens
2001 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 Michael Vick Virginia Tech Atlanta Falcons
2 32 Drew Brees Purdue San Diego Chargers
2 53 Quincy Carter Georgia Dallas Cowboys
2 59 Marques Tuiasosopo Washington Oakland Raiders
4 106 Chris Weinke Florida State Carolina Panthers
4 109 Sage Rosenfels Iowa State Washington Redskins
4 125 Jesse Palmer Florida New York Giants
5 149 Mike McMahon Rutgers Detroit Lions
5 155 A.J. Feeley Oregon Philadelphia Eagles
6 172 Josh Booty Louisiana State Seattle Seahawks
6 177 Josh Heupel Oklahoma Miami Dolphins
2000 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 18 Chad Pennington Marshall New York Jets
3 65 Giovanni Carmazzi Hofstra San Francisco 49ers
3 75 Chris Redman Louisville Baltimore Ravens
5 163 Tee Martin Tennessee Pittsburgh Steelers
6 168 Marc Bulger West Virginia New Orleans Saints
6 183 Spergon Wynn Texas State Cleveland Browns
6 199 Tom Brady Michigan New England Patriots
6 202 Todd Husak Stanford Washington Redskins
7 212 Tim Rattay Louisiana Tech San Francisco 49ers
7 214 Jarious Jackson Notre Dame Denver Broncos
7 234 Joe Hamilton Georgia Tech Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1999 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 Tim Couch Kentucky Cleveland Browns
1 2 Donovan McNabb Syracuse Philadelphia Eagles
1 3 Akili Smith Oregon Cincinnati Bengals
1 11 Daunte Culpepper Central Florida Minnesota Vikings
1 12 Cade McNown UCLA Chicago Bears
2 50 Shaun King Tulane Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3 77 Brock Huard Washington Seattle Seahawks
4 101 Joe Germaine Ohio State St. Louis Rams
4 131 Aaron Brooks Virginia Green Bay Packers
5 151 Kevin Daft California-Davis Tennessee Titans
7 227 Michael Bishop Kansas State New England Patriots
7 239 Chris Greisen Northwest Missouri State Arizona Cardinals
7 245 Scott Covington Miami (Fla.) Cincinnati Bengals
1998 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 Peyton Manning Tennessee Indianapolis Colts
1 2 Ryan Leaf Washington State San Diego Chargers
2 60 Charlie Batch Eastern Michigan Detroit Lions
3 86 Jonathan Quinn Middle Tennessee State Jacksonville Jaguars
3 91 Brian Griese Michigan Denver Broncos
6 187 Matt Hasselbeck Boston College Green Bay Packers
7 232 Moses Moreno Colorado State Chicago Bears


Rd 1 - 6 of 25 - 24% success ratio
Rd 2 - 1 of 7 - 14% success ratio
Rd 3 - 0 of 14 - 0% success ratio
Rd 4 - 1 of 11 - 9% success ratio
Rd 5 - 0 of 14 - 0% success ratio
Rd 6 - 4 of 17 - 23 % success ratio
Rd 7 - 0 of 22 - 0 % success ratio

The only QB I included from the last two years on the list is Jay Cutler who to me has demonstrated that he will be a great QB in a year or two. The standard is pretty high for the list and is why you dont see Garrard or Schaub or those types of QBs. Honestly, Derek Anderson really wouldnt be on this list except he had such a breakout year that I thought it warranted inclusion.

 

thanks

im going to try to get the numbers on DEs and DTs sometime tonight and post them

 

clearly hypothetical...would you trade Ronnie Brown and the #1 pick for LT?? I think I would!

 

Here are DEs

2006
1 CLE KamerionWimbley DE
1 HOU MarioWilliams DE
1 KAN TambaHali DE
1 NYG MathiasKiwanuka DE
1 SFO MannyLawson DE
2005
1 DAL MarcusR.Spears DE
1 MIN ErasmusJames DE
2004
1 MIN KenechiUdeze DE
1 NOR WillSmith DE
2003
1 CHI MichaelHaynes DE
1 ARI CalvinPace DE
1 PHI JeromeMcDougle DE
1 OAK TylerBrayton DE
1 NWE TyWarren DEDT
2002
1 CAR JuliusPeppers DE
1 IND DwightFreeney DE
1 NOR CharlesGrant DE
1 NYJ BryanThomas DE
2001
1 CIN JustinSmith DE
1 GNB JamalReynolds DE
1 NWE RichardSeymour DEDT
1 SFO AndreCarter DELB
2000
1 CLE CourtneyBrown DE
1 NYJ JohnAbraham DE
1 NYJ ShaunEllis DE
1 BUF ErikFlowers DELB
1999
1 ATL PatrickKerney DE
1 DAL EbenezerEkuban DE
1 TEN JevonKearse DE
1 SEA LamarKing DE
1998
1 CAR JasonPeter DE
1 ARI AndreWadsworth DE
1 DAL GregEllis DE
1 STL GrantWistrom DE
1 GNB VonnieHolliday DEDT

It is pretty objective to be honest, but I got 19/35 for DEs

 

Nice Omar. seems like over half become Pro bowl material and the otehr half very SOLID players if not GOOD players. give me GHOLSTON, LONG, or DORSEY! GO FOR GHOL FIRST!

 

Good job. Off the top of my head its probably somewhere around a 55 to 60% success ratio. Now comes the big question, how important is a DE compared to a QB to the success of a team. Who's more important, Dwighht Freeney or Peyton Manning, Will Smith or Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Richard Seymour. From a statistical point fo view one would have to assign a value grade to each position. Is QB twice as valuable, three times, etc..?
You basically have a little over twice as much likelihood being successful drafting a DE but if a QB is three times as valuable as a DE then the QB pick becomes a better bet. It all comes down to what value you assign QB in relation to DE. I assign a 4 to 1 value to the two positions due to the scarcity of good QBs versus defensive ends but that is certainly debatable. Parcells doesnt have as high a ratio. His is probably closer to 2 to 1 which would make it a slightly better bet to take DE. But if his 3 to 1 then QB becomes the better bet

Anyways that is just an academic exercise. The number one option for Parcells will be to trade down. If that isnt there the likelihood is DE but I will maintain that QB will be considered by Parcells if he isnt sold on Beck. It all comes down to how comfortable he feels with Beck as his QB and if QB is considered Ryan and Flacco will be at the top of Parcells list

 

That would be great, if there was actually a franchise QB to pick with the #1 overall...

As KB has stated, there are ZERO stellar QB's coming out this year..

 

Matt Ryan, Brian Brohm are both "stellar" QBs and will be drafted top ten

 

Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, Kurt Warner are just a few that have been successful in the NFL that were not first round picks.

This is an article ESPN did a while back about first round Busts in the NFL:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/quarterbacks/070425

So as you can see, there is value in every round. You don't have to overpay for a QB in the NFL to be successful. I'd rather have a QB working to win a job than one who is simply handed the reins.

 

And Reggie Bush was a "stellar" running back coming out of college and Mario Williams was considered a joke pick #1. Go run the numbers now and see who got the better end of that deal.

One thing you can not do in the NFL is overdraft players with high draft picks. You don't reach in the top 10. It's ok to take a flyer in the 3rd or fourth with a risky pick but not in the top 10. Take the safe choice, Dorsey, Long...and improve something that needs fixing. The QB situation can be fixied via other avenues. QB's aren't great the first year. Cutler's numbers are better than Elways this far in their careers. You don't know if Beck will be great after one season. Everyone hailed this pick last year and now everyone wants to jump off the bandwagon. Give the kid a chance to learn the system.

 

we've got to give Beck another shot IMO he looked bad but he was a ROOKIE. Give him a fair shot unless Parcells does not like him, and we really need help on defense. Dorsey,Long, or Gholston have to be the pick. With as bad as our rush D has been, and the lack of pressure this year, we need Defense.

Besides if we're going to take a QB in this draft, Woodson and Brohm are both better prospects than Ryan IMO. They just lost a lot of steam because their teams fell apart this year.

IMO here's who we should look at
1.Glenn Dorsey
2.Chris Long
3.Darren McFadden
4.Vernon Gholston
5.Jake Long
6.Seddrick Ellis
7.Kenny Phillips
8.Brian Cushing
9.Malcolm Jenkins
10.James Laurenitis

 

Tony Romo *cough* Tony Romo *cough* PPl said Parcells likes Lemon... Lemon looks like Tony Romo the way he's been extending plays....

 

I bet you're wrong!!!!

 

Ok so they're both mobile.......end of similarities!!!!

 

well matt ryan will definitely be a top-10 pick, and he is worthy

im not so sure brohm will be top-10, now that petrino is gone

 

you can't judge a guy after playing with a crappy o-line for a few games, if you were our gm we would be screwed. everybody knows most good quarterbacks come in the later picks of the first round or second, and guys usually never pan out that are picked highly, see david carr, joey harrington, etc.

 

no have you watched them only difference is Romo has weapons that are smart and they get open Romo isnt a run first QB there are plenty times he could run it for a TD but he goes for the big play...

 

romo is accurate, lemon is not

 

Some sources rate Ryan as top ten. Maybe you don't. The Huddle Report, and Scott Wright both have Ryan, Woodson and Brohm among their top ten.
www.nfldraftscout.com which IMO is the best draft web site out there has them 4th, 13th and 15th. This is before juniors declare and get added to the mix.
I wouldn't draft a QB that high though. I'm sticking with my wish for Gholston first.
I'd rather take a QB like Joe Flacco or John David Booty in the 4th, or Matt Flynn in the 6th round and throw him into the mix with Beck, Bramlet and whatever veteran(s) we may bring in.

 

When Finheaven gets back up I was making that argument about Bush and Mario before the draft. I said Mario was the best pick at number one and that Reggie Bush was overrated. I also wanted Cutler with our pick IN 2006 by trading up but that died when we picked up Culpooper. You will see last year I wanted Patrick Willis. I have a pretty good track record and its on record once Finheaven gets back up. Just so you know I wanted Derrick Johnson or Braylon Edwards over Ronnie Brown and I think Ronnie Brown ended up more valuable for us. It's not to say I havent been wrong. I preferred Ryan Leaf to Peyton Manning. LOL. ONE of the all time screw ups LOL. I prefer defense almost every time just not this year. Ryan is the real deal and I'll even say Brohm is. You have two future solid QBs waiting to be picked by us and end the ten year drought and more than likely we'll pass (no pun intended). Both QBs will be more highly regarded by GMs and coaches than by the draft sights and will go higher than the draftniks expect

I agree Chris Long is the safe pick but Dorsey with his back probblems and being forced to play 3-4 is not a safe pick by us. A 4-3 defense he becomes a safer pick. Gholston is not a safe pick either though both Gholston and Dorsey probably have more upside than Chris Long.

As for Beck, I had no opinion on him because I didnt scout him last year. I tend to avoid BYU QBs. I wanted Kevin Kolb or Trent Edwards but only with our 3rd which meant we wouldbve picked Trent Edwards. Just to be on record I am not that impressed with Trent Edwards so far and feel Beck may end up being better. The other two I wanted was Toby Korrodi and Matt Gutierrez with our 6th. Wouldve overdrafted those two. The year before Eric Meyer was my late round pick. He did nothing. This year its Josh Johnson in the 6th if he lasts that long or TC Ostrander as a free agent

I have a pretty good, documented track record, certainly not perfect, but pretty solid. Dont confuse me with other posters

 

I like Jake Long. The only way a QB will do good in Miami is when he has time to throw and remains standing. A DL would add depth to the DL.

WE NEED TO CONTROL THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE ON BOTH OFFENSE AND DEFENSE. Once we learn to do that we will become a contender.

 

Explain to me what is a bigger play than a TD. Well if our receivers aren't smart and can't get open. Lemon should recognize that and run it in when he has a chance.

 

Ok. You have to have a Matt Ryan avatar for one year if they both get picked in the top 10 and I will have a John Beck avatar or some other player's avatar for the whole year

 

cleo lemon is nothing but a backup.. and will never ascend to a starting postion except through injury. He's worse than joey harrington and THAT is pretty bad.

 

Phillip Rivers and Jason Campbell are more than capable starting Qb's. At any position I believe you're more likely to find a better player higher in the draft. Guys slip through the cracks. The thing about taking a Qb 1st overall is that they're much more highly scrutinized or glorified than any other player taken 1st. Look at Mario Williams, last year he was a bum this year he's developed into a stud.

 

jason campbell has been outplayed by todd collins this year.

 

i wo'nt watch you tube any more in evaluating players,its got me all messed up about ginn and beck, they looked like world beaters on youtube

 

how can you even judge beck at this point. do you see any talent to help him at all. We cant even run the damn ball. Do you really expect beck to light it up his first 4 games with a below average receiving core, no running game, and no protection from his o line. get real. How is this team ever gonna get good if you give up on a ROOKIE qb in his 1st 4 games on a 1-14 team. News flash, most rookie qb's arent very good. even the ones who turned out to be great.