A discussion on this year's class of wide receivers

The question is: what would be the payoff of picking up a Trae Waynes instead of a DGB, Cooper or White? Which of these positions would have the most immediate impact in terms of wins? Because I think that's the question Philbin/Hickey are asking themselves...
If we do pick up a WR in the first, are there CB's later on in the draft who can come in and play right away? Are there any FA's who can replace Finnegan's production? If the answer to these questions is "no", then their line of thinking is probably that CB should be looked at with more emphasis in the first.

I saw this video of Tannenbaum when he was away from the NFL giving his opinions on some team's offseason, I forgot which team, but he kept criticizing them for not addressing CB, saying that it is a very important position. It's quite possible they go the CB route, for the shear necessity and lack of options with which to address it.

 

Think of it this way.

Miami's offense was pretty decent even without Kevin White or Dorial Green-Beckham, especially once players started to "get it" and even more especially when Tannehill had pass protection.

Miami's defense fell apart with the secondary in the state it's in. And with Cortland Finnegan likely cut (for good reason), it's only going to be even worse. Sometimes it's not about how much you'll win if you grabbed a Kevin White or a Dorial Green-Beckham, it's also about how much you'll LOSE if you don't cover up that gaping hole in the secondary. I mean just think about it. Brent Grimes is 32 years old playing a position where guys start to catch the injury bug and fall off the face of the earth at 29-30 years old (see: Finnegan, Surtain, Madison, Rolle, etc). He's living on borrowed time as it is. If he gets hurt this year the defense probably give up 30 points a game. You can't win like that.

 

I know I shouldn't feel this way because the team has plenty of big needs they can address in the first round, and getting a good CB does make a lot of sense, but I just can't help thinking I'd feel very disappointed if the Dolphins missed out on all those exciting WR prospects available.
I'm already massively bummed we're likely not even going to sniff a shot at Kevin White, not getting any of the others because we addressed other big needs would make me very sad, even if getting other position player makes all the sense in the world too.

 

Good point. There's also the possibility of picking up a decent WR in the second or third rounds, maybe Agholor, Devin Smith or Phillip Dorsett. I don't know, I'm just liking the possibility of us picking up a true difference maker at the WR position... if Cooper, White and DGB are gone by the 14th pick, I wouldn't mind Trae Waynes at all, but if they are still on the board, I'll be a little pissed, especially if we pass on DGB.

 

I'm with you. I hear you on that. I gush about DGB's talent though I'm a little wary about the prospect of him being a better person. I've been gushing about Kevin White and saying there's a strong possibility he's better than Amari Cooper for like four months now.

But like BrasFin says below, this is a fairly deep WR class. I have about 10 guys that really stand out from the rest, and even after you get through those 10 guys there's another group of guys I really think can play.

Top Ten:
Dorial Green-Beckham, Kevin White, Amari Cooper, Devin Smith, Jaelen Strong, Nelson Agholor, DeVante Parker, Tyler Lockette, Breshad Perriman, Sammie Coates.

Next Group:
Justin Hardy, Stefon Diggs, Phillip Dorsett, Rashad Greene, Jordan Taylor, Austin Hill, Vince Mayle, Andre Davis, Dres Anderson, Dezmin Lewis, Tre' McBride, Xavier Milton, Jamison Crowder, Tommy Shuler

 

But one good argue about how many points we left on the field due to our receivers. Or how many three and outs due them too. No wonder our Def was drained last part of season.

 

We were actually pretty good at avoiding 3 and outs. Between the 20 s we were excellent. We need another weapon who can get in the end zone besides wallace. Clay has the potential to be a high td guy as well. He missed a lot of opportunities for tds last year Ala wallace the year before. Thill has to be better in the red zone as well, stop taking the 3 yard pass on 3rd n 8 on the 15 yard line.

 

I understand the logic but I don't agree because now you aren't taking BPA you are doing what Ireland did, filling a need.
You don't let an elite player go for a very good player because if someone gets hurts you are screwed. Taylor was a very good player and I always thought Davis was mediocre at best and what happened? neither has helped in 2 years. CB isn't that easy to learn and play as a rookie so even if Grimes is out we aren't in great shape with the rookie. This team needs so many holes fixed that I wouldn't fill a need instead of taking an elite talent. If I am Miami I clear Hartline and Gibson along with the salaries they have, draft a DGB, use FA to fill the CB spot next to Grimes and go for a cheaper CB as depth and pray that Davis or Taylor can make something of themselves or do enough to get by a year and address that need the following year. I would even go CB later in the draft if need be.

White and DGB are elite players, you snatch elite players. Watching Shaq reminds me of how I felt when I watched Earl Thomas and Willis during college. 2 players I loved watching play and wanted in Miami so bad. Explosive, instincts, extrememmmmememely smart, did it all, sideline to sideline, the "IT" factor, you name it they had it and Shaq gives me the same goosebumps, the only issue I have with him is where he will play. Should be an OLB 100% but sometimes I wonder if he might get eaten up by blockers in the NFL, or else he is on my top 4-5 must have players at 14 but no matter what I do I don't see anyone worth snatching ahead of White or DGB at 14. I don't think White even makes it to 14 to be honest. MAYBE Shelton but thats a whole different story as I don't see him getting past Washington.

 

I will say this though, I wouldn't be surprised if we do something dumb and trade down and snatch one of the LBs and grab an extra pick (which i am SOOOO DAMN AGAINST) or if we go LB and address WR later on.

I, as usual, expect Miami to be in great shape to snatch a great player and to do something stupid like we did with Odrick and Misi or Dez or Willis or Thomas. Miami looking at elite players usually means lets go down a few grab an extra pick and get 2 solid players. Thats why we have sucked arse for 15 years.

 

What's sad is we need to add a couple corners, one in FA and one in the draft, or two in the draft.

actually after we cut Hartline and Gibson we'll probable need to add multiple WRs as well SMH.

Hickey might be screwed, too many needs.

 

I know I lost a few marbles in my life, but I do remember watching the games an we did have alot of 3 & outs. Not sure of stats league wide. But our Offense sure did not help our Def get some rest when needed.

 

The running game was clearly a bigger issue than the pass game, both in 2013 and 2014. Last year we had one back to rely on and Miller runs hot after 15 carries.

 

I disagree. It is much like the year we needed TEs and we took none. We NEED WR and this year it is LOADED. we got lucky last year with Landry, it was a loaded year with good WRs and this year it is the same, only difference is now we might FINALLY get Hartline and Gibson out for much better players that cost 1/4th their salary.

Wallace, DGB, Landry, Dorsett, can you imagine? Compared to those other 2 that can't even move and yet Gibson was and is the better WR than hartline. If we are smart, which is a huge IF for us Miami Dolphins, we will take advantage of it and pick up 2 WRs.

 

I'm not. I am just being smart and playing it safe with this organization. Just because he did 1 or 2 things right last year doesn't mean the trend can or will continue. miami is miami for 15 years for a reason. I will go with the 15 year history over the 1 draft history. I rather be prepared for disappointment like the past 15 years than expect something we don't see Miami do, hardly ever. You can have high hopes thats your choice, i choose not to because this team doesn't show consistency in that area.

 

I would legit cream my pants if we ended up with this.

 

I don't see them going LB in the 1st round…maybe not early at all to be honest. Its a need yes…but Coyle wants veterans out there running his defense…and I know he loves to have vets back there at S…so I highly doubt he wants a rookie Mike calling the defense out there.

DGB and Gurley will be the two most talented players available (if there) at 14 IMO…and Im not sure it would be close.

 

I agree. A CB is a need and could provide a quick way to improve the defense. My assumption is Brent Grimes can be used to make opportunistic plays if he wasn't dedicated to covering the top WR. Last year's division foes all featuring a middle of the field passing attack, where Brent may have been more valuable if he moved around to slot CB and multiple safety formations. In other words, use Brent to jump routes, while younger CBs focus on sticking with their man and fighting for the ball when a QB tries to force a throw.

Moreover, I think the following play into bypassing a 1st round WR:

1. Landry impact - it was amazing how the Packers were able to find late round/udfa WR and I think Landry could have a similar impact by having unheralded receivers emulate his approach. The future 5th and PS WR should be trying to outwork Landry, which means creating a competitive environment with multiple late picks/udfas.
2. 2 TE sets - to win within the division, the offense needs to get more physical and keep LBs & safeties off-balance by mixing in throws to TEs and RBs. Top front 7 defenses is an AFC East specialty and opponents have been teeing off on the Dolphins 3 WR offense. Reducing the role of WRs for divisional games should reduce the need invest a top pick in the position.
3. Tannehill's Team - he's evolved to where a veteran WR that can produce #2/3 production can be added. Santonio Holmes, Mike Williams, etc can be added at an inexpensive cap hit, which may be a better risk/reward than a 1st round rookie that may have some personal and/or adjusting to Miami issues.
4. Hickey's experience - he was involved with adding receiving height that produced by paying for #1 WR, using a 4th round pick on a WR with character issues, and finding an udfa tweener TE.

Using a 1st round pick on a top WR makes sense if team is rebuilding or needs to bolster an aging receiver corp, which isn't the situation with the Dolphins. Clay's health, Hartline & Gibson lack of athleticism, and Matthews inability to raise his game hampered the offense. A single player won't fix it so I expect to see an approach that inexpensively acquires multiple players to provide a blend of youth and experience plus improve the competitiveness of the receivers and flex TEs.

 

Good post.

WRs top the fan draft board pretty much every year but I'd be surprised if we go there. CB and LB need more help, perhaps S too and by all accts there are capable WRs to be had in the later rounds.

 

Frankly I think Kevin White and Dorial Green-Beckham are so talented it doesn't matter. White likely won't be around when Miami picks and DGB is an elite level talent that you almost never get your hands on outside the top 5 or maybe, maybe the top 10.

On that basis, best player available is a very strong argument.

The corner position is such a need for Miami that they can't just leave it up to the draft. Trae Waynes gets taken #12 overall and then what? You're going to go with Marcus Peters, who is a bad schematic fit for the Dolphins and is undisciplined, untrustworthy besides? You're gonna go with P.J. Williams, who is an even worse scheme fit and not as talented as Waynes or Peters? You go with Jalen Collins, who has 10 starts to his name and is still technically unsound?

This is a position where you need between 1200 and up to 2000 snaps, pronto. And that means you address in free agency. You have to BYPASS the draft with this position, and then circle back and see what you managed to get, what you still need, etc.

So who do you get? Brandon Flowers is a perfect fit. I'm not saying he's the greatest or anything like that but he's a great fit. Walter Thurmond is a potential fit. Brice McCain is a very good fit, IMO. Davon House deserves investigation, as does Chris Culliver. Chris Cook, Antoine Cason, Josh Wilson and Buster Skrine deserve looks.

 

One of DGB, Kevin White, or Amari Cooper will be there at 14, IMO. This is a really talented WR group, we have to take advantage. I'd be even tempted to double down later on in the second or third round. We need pure talent on our roster and the best place to get it without overpaying is in the draft, we can go after the solid, reliable players in free agency.

 

Dorial Green-Beckham will be there. I very much doubt based on what I've heard that someone in the top 13 takes him. Maybe that changes but the current mindset is one where it would be expected he falls out of the 1st round. That should change a bit when he runs and jumps in Indy provided he does as well as I think he can. Should also change once free agency takes place and teams get a more solid sense of their needs at the WR position (very weak FA class IMO as guys like Randall Cobb, Torrey Smith, Jeremy Maclin, Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas will likely all stick with their current teams). Even so I'd be shocked if he was off the board at 14.

Kevin White and Amari Cooper on the other hand, probably both gone. Miami likely will be looking at Dorial Green-Beckham and DeVante Parker available at 14.

And I just think DGB is a talent you don't pass on unless you're sure this guy is bad, bad news. And I'm not sure of that, based on the things I've heard. But if you walk out of free agency having STRUCK OUT on all your best options at corner, and therefore you enter the draft with corner as a "must" position, which would mean you've already failed to a degree, then yes you have to take Trae Waynes at 14 if available, even if DGB is there and DGB is a rare talent.

 

Straight up, who is the better pick. Football wise, all issues aside Trae Waynes or DGB. Look what Sammy Watkins did for the Jills, he torched us. When do we ever get a chance at a player like DGB.

Drill him, bring a shrink do all you can. Put him under a microscope. If we pass on him, he will be gone in the 1st round.

 

Whatever DGB did is in the past. Not saying it wasn't wrong. What I am trying to say is, you can pick the best person whose background is clean as it gets. It doesn't guarantee the won't fudge up in the future. Maybe DGB learned his mistake, coach him well and put him with a one of our best vets and it might be the best steal we ever made. Sure won't be the worst..

 

In that event you take Amari Cooper and don't even bat an eye. Part of the "fanciness" of all this draft evaluation is in taking the surefire best prospect and convincing oneself that there are actually better players at the position. Cooper is the best one and it isn't even close in my opinion. I'll take the Sammy Watkins clone at #14 and won't look back.

 

dorsett ran a 4.33

 

You probably cant fix all defense and offense in one off season. Give me the receiver this year.

 

Of our needs/holes, I think corner is the LEAST important. We can fill the spots at corner with J.A.G.s

DT >= S > back up LT > WR > G > LB >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> corner

 

Kevin White just ran a 4.35

DO WANT

 

I'd even trade up for White, seriously. Dude is a beast.

 

Is this assuming we keep Wallace? I'd move WR up to the top of the list if we do. My fear is they cut Wallace and keep Hartline. Brian is not going to suddenly turn into a TD machine even with more playing time and going from 10 TDs down to 2 TDs is a huge step back.

 

If they cut Wallace and keep Hartline at his cap number? We should all question why we are loyal to this team.

 

Boy, could you imagine Cooper or White in Wallace's position, Landry in Hartline's, and Tyler Lockett and his 4.35 in the slot? Lord have mercy.

 

This is a great plan...

For 2016.

Just because we had an exception to the rule last year doesn't mean you should just start inserting rookies in your 1 and 3 slots and assume great things are going to happen.

 

More like Wallace in Wallace's position, Landry in Landry's position, and White, DGB, Cooper or Strong in Hartline's position.

 

Well said, Miss.

 

The efficiency numbers (yards per target and yards per route run) are not good. And passing efficiency is what wins in the NFL.

 

I thought you posted recently that you favored cutting Wallace. Maybe I am remembering wrong.

 

You aren't eating much cap space. The only dead that presumably will remain is the prorated portion of his signing bonus, which is $2.2M each of the next three years. If they cut him this offseason, it is a total of $6.6M in dead money. If they cut him next offseason, its $4.4M.

Mike Wallace is essentially on a series of one year deals for $10M per year. If youre giving me the choice between Wallace or $10M in cap space, give me the $10M. If you want to get another WR, you can go get Randall Cobb.

 

philbin working real hard. smfh
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-ZNiu3IcAAhX_K.jpg

 

This isn't accurate.

2015
Base Salary- 9.85 M, 3M which is guaranteed.
Pro Rated Bonus- 2.2M

If he is cut and signs elsewhere for more than 3M, the Dolphins are off the hook for that portion still leaving 6.6M in dead money and 5.5M in cap relief.

2016
Base Salary- 11.45M (ZERO guaranteed)
Pro Rated- 2.2M

You save 9.3M