Does Tannehill have what it takes to win games? The better question is does Miami's coaching staff have what it takes to commit to the run? Here's the breakdown of our season thus far gentlemen concerning our rushing and facts are facts, they can't be disputed. I've said it time and time again and the stats to back it up... when we run the ball 25 times or more per game, we win. When we don't we lose... 7 Sep; NE 20 MIA 33 Total MIA rushing attempts: 38 WIN...check 14 Sep: BUF 29 MIA 10 Total MIA rushing attempts: 21 LOSS...check 21 Sep: KC 34 MIA 15 Total MIA rushing attempts: 20 LOSS...check 28 Sep: OAK 14 MIA 38 Total MIA rushing attempts: 35 WIN...check 12 Oct GB 27 MIA 24 Total MIA rushing attempts: 23 LOSS...check 19 Oct CHI 14 MIA 27 Total MIA rushing attempts: 33 WIN...check 26 Oct JAX 13 MIA 27 Total MIA rushing attempts: 24* WIN...exception 2 Nov SD 0 MIA 37 Total MIA rushing attempts: 35 WIN...check 9 Nov DET 20 MIA 16 Total MIA rushing attempts: 19 LOSS...check 13 Nov BUF 9 MIA 22 Total MIA rushing attempts: 24 WIN*...exception 23 Nov DEN 39 MIA 36 Total MIA rushing attempts: 21 LOSS...check 1 Dec NYJ 13 MIA 16 Total MIA rushing attempts: 18 WIN...exception 7 Dec BAL 28 MIA 13 Total MIA rushing attempts: 16 LOSS...check 14 Dec NE 41 MIA 13 Total MIA rushing attempts: 23 LOSS...check That's the season thus far gentlemen. You can argue all you want about the three exceptions I have listed. I'm not going to listen to it as it'll fall on deaf ears, but look at every one of those losses...EVERY ONE....we rushed the ball less than 25 times. With those 3 exceptions, all of our wins we played old fashioned smash mouthed football and ran the ball down their throats. Bottom line, when we run we win.
I like the legwork, looking up all the rushing attempts. But I think this is a common case of correlation not equaling causation. Running the football normally indicates having a lead, or at least a close game, in today's NFL. I do agree that establishing the run can be huge for gameflow. However, If opponents are able to jump to the lead more than likely teams need to pass.
Just to add in the other side: If before a game you told me the Dolphins would run the ball 25 times. I would bet heavily on the Dolphins winning.
Good news: Your numbers correlate at 0.864531133 meaning > 86% of the data points can be explained by total rushing attempts. Bad news: That correlation is one of the oldest, most widely studied statistical phenomenon in the NFL and the results don't look good for you. Reality: That correlation does not mean causation. The long accepted explanation is that teams that have leads run the ball to bleed the clock to preserve their leads. Rushing attempts are themselves a positive function of score differential which is correlated very strongly to passing statistics, especially in today's NFL. Evaluation: Your choice of 25 is arbitrary anyway. You literally just looked at the data, found the minimum number of attempts in wins, and declared that to be a magic number. The fact that you throw away the 24 attempt victory is also specious.
Remember when we had won ALL of our games by 13+ points before the Jets? A team up 13+ probably runs the ball A LOT.
While I understand your point of view, I have to nonconcur. Your point of view is indicative of reactionary strategy, playing your opponents game rather than playing YOUR game. Allow me to illustrate a point if you will Of the four wins we achieved by running the ball at least 25 times per game, we averaged 33.75 points per game. Now keeping that in mind, of the seven losses we have, had we played OUR game and not our opponents game, that average of 33.75 point would have resulted in 4 additional wins. Instead of being 7-7 and our season over, we would be 11-3, fighting for the the division title
My post is based on years of observation of the Dolphins. I used this season's results to illustrate my point. Now, your assertion that the Dolphins rushed the ball merely to burn the clock, I'll literally go though each and every game, play by ply to debunk that assertion however, it'll take time, so be patient.
The run-win correlation has always existed in the NFL. That's because when a team is leading, they tend to run a lot, to run out the clock. And when a team is trailing, they tend to throw a lot, in a desperate attempt to catch up.
By the same token, we should kneel the ball more. Cause teams that take a knee win more than teams that don't.
I think you'll find, this season at least, that when we went away from the run it was in the second half, and we were behind, or the few times we ran it, we got crushed, and thus went away from it. I wish it was as simple as run the ball 25+ times and win.
If it weren't for The Miracle at the Meadowlands and Joe Philbin, that correlation would probably be at 1.0. He kneels to close the half.
What you need to do if you want some real data is chart the ratio of runs to passes based on score differential. There is a proxy statistic that can get you the same conclusions and is much easier to find and analyze: Here you can see that rushing attempts are positively correlated with point differential, i.e., we run more when we're up more. We only rushed 81 times when the score differential was 7 or less. We rushed 38 more times when we're up 7 < x <= 14. Up 15 or more we've rushed 31 more times than that. We run when we're leading. These rushes are coming after we've scored. 77% of our total rushing attempts on the season have come with a lead greater than 7 points.
Just a thought but I bet if you would use "4th quarter rushing attempts" if would correlate even stronger. Or maybe "% of rushing attempts in 4th quarter."
you are completely ignoring the other half of the equation: inability to run the ball because your opponent is stifling your running game. I know we had a couple of examples where that wasn't the case. but offenses tend to move towards what the defense gives them.
Ok, to go through each and every game is going to take WAAAAAAAY too long, so I'm going to use the first game of the season against New England to illustrate my point. Remember, we were down 10 at the half and came back to win the game. Each Miami possession... pass 8 yards, rush 1 yard, rush 2 yards, pass 4 yards TD. RUSH; 2 (3 yards) PASS; 2 (12 yards) rush 5 yards, rush 6 yards, pass 3 yards fumble recovered by NE RUSH; 2 (11 yards) PASS; 1 (3 yards) pass 5 yards, pass 22 yards, pass 3 yards, rush 6 yards, rush 1 yard, pass intercepted RUSH; 2 (7 yards) PASS; 3 (30 yards) rush 15 yards, pass 9 yards, rush 3 yards, pass inc, rush 13 yards fumble RUSH; 3 (31 yards) PASS; 2 (9 yards) rush 3 yards, pass 3 yards, rush 3 yards, pass 11 yards, pass inc, rush 7 yards, rush 1 yard, pass inc, pass inc, FG RUSH; 4 (14 yards) PASS; 5 (14 yards) So during the first half, Miami rushed the ball 13 times and passed 13 times Even though we were down by 10 a balance attack in which we had shot ourselves in the foot with the two turnovers. So what happened in the 2nd half? pass 24 yards, rush 3 yards, pass inc, rush 9 yards, rush 13 yards, rush 4 yards, pass 3 yards, pass inc, FG RUSH; 4 (27 yards) PASS; 4 (27 yards) Score 20-13 rush 8 yards, rush 5 yards, rush 7 yards, pass 14 yards TD. RUSH; 3 (20 yards) PASS; 1 (14 yards) Score 20-20 pass inc, rush 13 yards, rush 6 yards, pass inc, pass 16, rush 13 yards, rush 5 yards, pass 7 yards, pass inc, FG RUSH; 4 (32 yards) PASS; 5 (23 yards) Score 20-23 fum rec mia 0 yards, pass inc, pass inc, punt RUSH; 0 (0 yards) PASS; 2 (0 yards) rush 7 yards, pass (sack) -7, pass inc, punt RUSH; 1 (7 yards) PASS; 2 (-7 yards) pass inc, rush 9 yards, rush 1 yard, pass 15 yards, rush 6 yards, rush 2 yards, pass 9 yards, pass inc, rush 4 yards, pass 17 yards, rush 3 yards, pass inc, rush 4 yards TD RUSH; 7 (29 yards) PASS; 6 (41 yards) Score 30-20 Now I want to point something out before I go any further. Prior to this score, prior to this drive, Miami was only up by 3 and at the beginning of this drive there was 9:30 left in the game, so there wasn't any "lead" to milk and burn the clock, especially against a high scoring team like the Patriots whom our defense had success in holding in the second half. Prior to this drive and in the 2nd half in which Miami was down by 10, the Dolphins rushed the ball 12 times and passed 14 times. Overall a balanced attack but look at the 4th and 5th drives of this half; 1 rush and 4 pass attempts; 3 and out in two consecutive series. They made no effort to run the ball in those two series so in this past series what does Miami do with 2nd and 10? They ran the ball for 9 yards and on 3rd and 1? They ran the ball for the 1st down. In that last series, 7 rushes/6 passes and they marched the ball down the field. At this point of the game, Miami had rushed 32 times and took a 10 point lead. Miami rushed the ball 6 more times this game, so those of you cling to the notion that when Miami rushes the ball more than the benchmark of 25 times is merely to burn the clock and hold on to a lead, this game debunks that notion. Miami's rushing was instrumental in scoring and opening up the pass as the Patriot defense had to defend against the run. Now, let's look at another one, but on the flip side in which Miami didn't rush 25 times. Let's take a look at the next game, Miami and Buffalo... pass 25 yards, rush 6 yards, pass sack (-4 yards), pass inc, punt RUSH; 1 (6 yards) PASS; 3 (21 yards) pass 6 yards, rush 4 yards, rush 1 yard, pass inc, pass 3 yards, FG blocked; RUSH; 2 (5 yards) PASS; 3 (9 yards) Score 3-0 BUF pass 18 yards, pass -5 yards, pass sacked -10 yards, pass sacked -11 yards, punt RUSH; 0 PASS 4 (-8 yards) Score 6-0 BUF pass inc, pass inc (Pen 1st dn), pass inc, pass 8 yards, rush 2 yards, punt RUSH; 1 (2 yards) PASS; 4 (8 yards) Score 9-0 BUF Before going any further, all of the success Miami had in running the ball, the Dolphins had yet to make an effort to run the ball to this point, 4 rushes to 14 passes and this last drive, the first 4 plays were passes. No balance whatsoever. Continuing on... rush 3 yards, pass -4 yards, pass 4 yards, punt RUSH; 1 (3 yards) PASS; 2 (4 yards) (2 min warning) rush 5 yards, rush 3 yards, rush 6 yards, rush 3 yards, rush 6 yards, rush 6 yards RUSH 6 (29 yards) PASS; 0 (0 yards) Now at this point I'm scratching my head. You're down 9-0, you get the ball back at the 2 min warning, you're effectively running the ball and you make no effort to take a shot downfield? Not only that, but with as effectively as you ran the ball, why didn't you do this earlier or even worse, later during the game as the stats will show... pass 13 yards, rush 5 yards, pass 11 yards, pass 7 yards, rush 6 yards, pass 12 yards, rush -2 yards, pass 5 yards, pass 8 yards, pass -1 yards, pass inc, pass inc FG RUSH; 3 (10 yards) PASS; 9 (52 yards) Score 9-3 pass 16 yards, rush 7 yards, pass inc, pass inc, pass 8 yards, pass inc, pass inc (pen BUF), pass 11 yards, pass 4 yards, rush 3 yards, pass 7 yards, pass 2 yards, rush 7 yards, pass 6 yards TD RUSH; 3 (17 yards) PASS; 11 (54 yards) Score 16-10 BUF false start, pass 11 yards, pass inc, pass inc, punt. RUSH; 0 (0 yards) PASS 3 (11 yards) Score 23-10 BUF Ok, at this point I dont think I need to go any further simply for the fact that Miami had become a one dimensional team, down by 2 touchdowns and the Dolphins wouldn't get the ball back until 10:31 in the 4th, still plenty of time for Miami to play THEIR game, but as this game's game plan shows, the coaching staff completely abandoned the run. A tale of two different teams. Week one, Miami ran a balanced attack, not panicking when down by 10 at the half and continued to run the ball, ultimately winning the game and winning big. Week two, Miami ran a completely unbalanced attack, abandoning the run all together, panicking and desperately threw the ball all game long, losing and losing badly. I've looked at the play by play of all the other games; it's just way too lengthy to type out but the bottom line is what I stated from the beginning of this thread, when we run the ball, we win and when we don't we lose. Have we run the game to run out the clock on a few games? Sure we did but that wasn't the bulk of our running, just a fraction of it. Cause and correlation? Running the ball causes victories; running the ball keeps defenses honest, running the ball opens the passing lanes, running the ball opens up play action pass. I mean think about it, when you're NOT running the ball, making no effort to do so whatsoever, what defense is fooled by a play action pass? That's Sparano Ball and I was one of those glad to see him go. I don't want Philbin to be adopting Sparano Ball as our offensive strategy. To win it, you gotta run it.
One thing to point out is that in the 2nd half the Patriots were playing a pass defense, and when Miami tried to run they would lose a yard or just gain a yard. The offensive line played terrible in the second half.