I'm interested in it b/c, in our particular case without an elite QB established, it's frequently an indication of strong team talent. Addressing your list above [I added a few names in red], John Harbaugh won a SB 2 years ago with a team very much like what we have now but certainly not more talented. They were similarly 10th in scoring, 12th in pts allowed [compared to Miami's 8th], +56 pt differential [compared to Miami's +66], and were top 10 in turnover margin, passer rating, and opponent passer rating like we are now..... but they finished 10-6, secured a wildcard spot, and made a run through the playoffs, beating Denver in OT and beating San Fran by 3 in a tight 4th qtr game. Chip Kelly has a team similar to ours now, although not as talented defensively. Philly is 8th in offensive pts/game with 24.7. Miami is 10th with 23.5. Miami's D ranks 9th in pts allowed with 19.3; Philly ranks 20th at 22.6. Philly's pt differential is +67 compared to Miami's +66, but Kelly's team is 8-3 and sitting pretty. This is after finishing 10-6 last year and winning 4 of his last 5 to make the playoffs. Negligible difference in rosters between Miami and Philly yet Chip Kelly has taken his squad to 18-9 since last year while Philbin squeaks out 14-13. Chuck Pagano's team will run through a wall for him. He took his 2012 team [that's arguably inferior to our current one] to 11-5 when Luck wasn't playing as well as Tannehill is now. He went 4-1 in games decided by 4 pts or less that weren't won by a Luck 4th qtr comeback. Pagano went 11-5 against last year with a team very similar to what we have now, although his group ranked 14th in scoring, 9th in pts allowed, and had a +55 pt differential. Belichick started out 3-0 last year despite Brady and the offense averaging 19.6 pts. He went 11-5 in 2008 without Brady.
The third down inefficiency has been noted before, I'd like to see him become more deft at scrambling and making a play on the down, and to tuck and run to convert when it's a must have.
Vegas likes point differential because it is a tried and true indication of good teams, teams that are more likely to do well against the spread. Thats it. When they input the numbers their formula doesn't spit out a "YES, you can bet, just as long as Joe Philbin isn't involved with the team..." The numbers are the numbers. And the Dolphins are in fact 7-4 against the spread, which is pretty good. In 2012 Andrew Luck had 7 game winning drives. Tannehill has zero this year. In 2012 Luck also had 2 "close outs" on offense. So that's 9 of their 11 wins won by Luck in the fourth quarter that year despite a poor point differential. Tannehill had opportunities to close out Detroit and Green Bay and he couldn't get it done. In fact, Tannehill is 0 for 9 in his career at "close out" opportunities. Contrast that to Russell Wilson who is 3-1 at close out opportunities, and you see how terrible we are at that. Is that on the coach or the QB? And Tannehill had an opportunity at one more game winning drive at Denver.
Tough position to be in. I've supported Philbin, always said we need to give him time. That said he's never blown the roof off my doors in his time here. The current team has me perplexed. Players are being coached up, we're game planning ok, and are making great adjustments. I didn't see this before from Philbin, but it seems hard to imagine it all coming from Lazor (though the above attributes are trademarks of Chip Kelly teams. Dude is a straight up sorcerer at halftime). I'm not sold in him, but if not Philbin then who? I don't think Lazor is ready, and swapping him out puts Tannehill in jeopardy. That cats playing well, and we need him to keep growing. I'd personally be scared of roughing the staff up too much just yet. But then what of Lazor? Will he get hired away soon? Does he enjoy his position? Personally I'm defaulting to consistency. I'd like to see the staff stay together for another year at least to continue player development, and better assess what we have. If Philbins not it, and Lazors ready, he could be the guy. If he's not ready, or has left by then, we'll be a solid team that would be an attractive position for candidates (something we were lacking in the past). Our players will be developed and they could handle a system change.
I think people are overlooking the fact that Lazor could be gone whether we keep Philbin or not. His stock is soaring, he could be highly coveted in the offseason, owners and GMs value coaches with proven resumes of developing quarterbacks, and we all see how Foles and Tannehill took off under his tutelage. so if he leaves to be a head coach, then what? Do we trust Philbin to find a suitable replacement? I don't, if it was up to him, Lazor wouldn't even be our OC, that would still be Sherman. Maybe Philbin takes over the playcalling duties? that could be a disaster, when was the last time he called plays, 98? he never did in the pros. another possibility, though obviously far less likely, is Lazor makes a lateral move after having a falling out with Philbin and decides to run an offense somewhere else...it's happened before, it's how we ended up with Mike Nolan back when Sparano was coach, he was one and done in Denver despite improving their defense big time, but he and Josh McDaniels didn't really see eye to eye so he left for Miami. the odds are slim that happens with Lazor but we've already seen him publicly throw Philbin under the bus so you never know lol... anyway, I think Lazor, as of this moment, is more valuable to this team than Philbin is. I don't see how anybody not named toogoodfordez could disagree. really no point in keeping Philbin if Lazor isn't here, so if we do end up installing a new offense next year, I hope it's with a new head coach.
I like Lazor but I'm not buying the he's a genius/Sherm's an idiot storyline. Sherm spent his first season in Miami with Hartline and Bess as his only viable WRs. Last year he had an OL that imploded plus a WR corps that was down to three guys by game 7. The Jets game you mentioned was played with Wallace and Matthews as the only NFL WRs available, unless you count Marlon Moore, which I dont. Those aren't type of handicaps an OC can just work around, not unless he has an elite level QB or a dominant run game. Sherm had neither. Of the 8 losses in 2013 half of them were primarily due to bad OL play, Buffalo, Baltimore, NE and Tampa specifically. If even one of those games goes the other way we're in the playoffs.
Sherman was deprived of the benefit of another year. In 2013 he was much more aggressive with RT than Lazor, he was all about chunk yardage when throwing, going intermediate and deep. That of course had its drawbacks last year as the season wore off. We will never know how Sherman would've adjusted the offense, but I think it would've been something similar to Lazor. It's interesting that the team implemented 3 things to combat edge rushers and lower the sacks: 1. They got Albert and drafted a right tackle in 1st rd, 2. They shortened the routes, 3. They implemented zone read to freeze the rushers in shotgun formations. Seems like an overkill. Going into the 2014 draft I am not sure the team was certain they would go with 2 and 3 above, because they spent so much on tackles and they did not know what would really work as a remedy because camps had not started. You would think the idea was to beef up the tackles and keep the aggressive passing offense. But by the end of camps they did all three. Considering Jason Fox and Dallas Thomas can perform with 2 and 3 changes implemented, I am not sure 1 was needed.
well whatever happend with sherman, if he wanted to keep him or not, he found lazor after all, the only way lazor leaves is if he gets a HC gig, i don´t see that happening
Those are great points. I think they had plans to rely on the run more. Plans, which have been derailed by injuries to Moreno and Miller. I'm with you, why go all in to improve at OT and not feature a more aggressive pass game? My best guess is that they're sticking to what Tannehill does best, fine by me. But when it gets cold we'd better have some options available to keep Ds away from the LOS or else we'll get smothered, like we did in the 2nd half vs Denver.
Why not? Given what he's done this season and last, he might be viewed as this QB whisperer, and I think there will be significant interest in him. I can almost guarantee you he interviews with at least one or two teams. Going back to college to take a HC job is also a possibility.
If Lazor leaves, he leaves, no big deal, we'll get another OC. He ain't nothing, he did not give us this offensive system.
Interesting theory.....and by interesting I mean in the sense that virtually not one other sole would agree with it.
Get NFL rewind, watch last year's condensed games, start with game one against the Browns. (The "souls" that do not agree are people who don't watch games, they watch scores and stats.)
For sure. Not sure what Lazer's contract looks like - 1 yr? 2yrs? 3yrs? If it is a one yr contract then it would be expected Lazor is saying nice things about Philbin
Philbin doesn't like players that don't fall in-step He is threatened by them. If we had Vonte and Brandon right now we most likely are up 2 more games Until Philbin goes we have peaked Don't think the entire NFL and college teams haven't taken notice of what Lazor has done Lazor will be talked about in many circles this off season Got a feeling he wont be here long - we either consider him as head coach or I believe he is gone
Lazor is not revamping anything, he is not running some new thing we can call his offense, he is running Sherman's system with the addition of zone read. And zone read is working, it's a shotgun quirk, there is nothing to revamp there. His playcalling has been lacking balance, and that has cost us games.
Zone read has been around forever, big deal. Did you expect Lazor to come in and get no time to evaluate? Make the plays to the strength of the players he does and doesn't have?? He was just supposed to magically know what it was supposed to be from day 1. I still believe it is Lazors offense not Sherman's. Why didn't Philbin step up? I know you watched the game last week. We played step for step with the best offense in the NFL. NO ONE wants to play this team right now. We are light years from where we were last year and it is because of Lazor. No more nonsense with Taylor (zero exp) coaching Tannehill without someone looking over his shoulder. Now we got Lazor and possibly Marino in the mix. Ryan will never be the same as a result. Dude come on - 37-0 against S.D Tannehill is crisp, decisive and getting the ball out quick. I am excited about it. If we can just get into the playoffs, we have a real chance to make some noise if the D shows up. Was not happy with what I saw last week.
For us it is. Mike Sherman is the one who installed it here. We are still running it, and we will run it as long as Philbin is the HC, Lazor or not.
Feel free to post why. Seeing as how you're the only one making this claim. Sent from my Galaxy S3 using Tapatalk
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...nse-this-year-will-be-like-phillys-last-year/ New Dolphins offensive coordinator Bill Lazor spent last season as the quarterbacks coach in Philadelphia, and at least one player in Miami says Dolphins fans should expect to see a Chip Kelly-style offense. A Dolphins player, who asked not to be named as the team keeps some of its offensive plans under wraps, told the Miami Herald that the schemes are like the ones the Eagles ran last year.
I don't mind it. But the exaggeration from that to Lazor is a genius, or he did something from scratch in Miami, is where the line must be drawn. He did not such thing. He together with Philbin implemented some improvement to the Sherman system. That is it, no more no less. The only person in the last two decades who did anything significant, worthwhile and is a must keep for the Dolphins is Joe Philbin. All the other guys are either replaceable, or were just completely clueless and losers, like Parcells, Jimmy, Saban, Ireland, etc.
Again, if you think Sherman had a system, you don't understand what that means. He had a scheme. And to be clear, if you think Philbin can leave, and his system wouldn't remain, you don't understand what a system is. A system will remain on place after someone leaves. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk
I think TooGoof is referring to the copyright or patent or whatever that Philbin placed on it. But that's what Chip Kelly and Bill Lazor get for not sticking their flag into it first eh.
