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2014 Betting Thread

Discussion in 'Other Sports Forum' started by finyank13, Apr 29, 2014.

  1. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    Gonna take Oregon over 79 just because. :lol:

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  2. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    6-1 so far today, gotta hope that FSU ties it up and they go crazy on overtime for 7-1. lol
     
  3. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Oh well, 6-2 it is. good night.
     
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  4. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    The public killed last night with Clemson, Ok, Nebraska and Cal all covering. Usually means Sunday is a good day for the books.

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  5. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    1:00 games:
    Washington/Eagles Over 50
    Green Bay TT 24.5 (vs Lions)
    -7 Indianapolis (vs Jacksonville)
     
  6. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    2 of my picks look good so far... Green Bay needs to pick it up though in the second half..
     
  7. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    Going with Miami -4

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  8. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Forgot to post.

    4:00 games
    Sea/Denver Under 47.5
    KC TT 17.5

    Sacrilegious yes, but I know my Dolphins like I know the back of my ****.. And already 14 first half points given up.
     
  9. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    4-1 today, don't like the line on tonight's game so gonna leave it alone, might play something tomorrow night. 10-3 this weekend.
     
  10. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Glad I took Chicago Over 21.5... 10 minutes left in the 1st quarter and already up 13-0
     
  11. King Felix

    King Felix Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Bears +3 was easy money
     
  12. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Early bet before the line goes up

    3:30 game on Saturday
    -23 Virginia (vs Kent State)
     
  13. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    I hit both primetime games. It was a good thing too. Didn't do well during the day with the Texans and Phins losing.
     
  14. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I've been working on something for years with large betting pools like on CBSSports or OfficeFootballPool.

    The basic idea is if you know a couple of hundred bettors' histories and success percentages against the spread, you might be able to leverage the pool's pick tendencies against one another to identify outcomes that have a higher likelihood of going one way versus another.

    For example let's say you have a pool of about 300 bettors (which is the case with a CBSSports pool I'm part of) and these guys have all been participating in spread picks since like 2008 or 2009, and you have their standings and histories going all the way back. You're able to essentially rank them according to how consistently good or bad they are. CBSSports has their spread picks set up to where you not only pick but you rank the pick 1 thru 16.

    So let's say you have the Miami-Oakland game upcoming and let's pretend that Miami picks weighted 1 thru 16 are negative and Oakland picks weighted 1 thru 16 are positive. E.g. if you pick Oakland and give it a 5 weighting, the number is +5, but if you give it a Miami with a 13 weighting it's -13.

    You can regress that array of numbers (everyone's pick-weight number from -16 to +16) against the array of success rankings. How strong is the correlation? What's the R-Squared? In other words, is there a pattern where guys that have been bad at picking against the spread tend to go Miami but as you travel up the rankings the guys who have tended to be good are picking Oakland more frequently? Since you're isolating the correlation, it doesn't matter if overall the top level pickers are still picking Miami on average. What matters is the trend. So for instance if the terrible pickers tend to go Miami -13 while the good pickers go Miami -3, that's a big trend in Oakland's favor and you would interpret it as a bet on Oakland to cover.

    There have been some pretty damn impressive results experimenting with this...but it's dependent on data availability. I would kill to just have unfettered access to CBSSports or OfficeFootballPool's global user data.
     
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  15. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    If you're familiar with the Las Vegas Hilton contest. The guy who won last year is currently 24-6 this year (He's got two entries each week). He's a statistician and it seems to be working really well for him.

    Here's the link. He's DavidFrohardt Lane1 and Lane2. You can see the picks on the left as well as the lines they're using under Selections and Weekly Card.

    https://www.westgatedestinations.co...s-hotel-casino/casino/supercontest-standings/

    The other top guys might be worth following as well if they continue at the pace they're going.
     
  16. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Jeez they picked Oakland +4, I'm not even sure I want to watch us play next Sunday if that holds true. SIGH
     
  17. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    I think those are still week 3 picks. So he took Oakland against NE.

    For those looking at tonight.

    @AdamSchefter 3m All 3 road teams on Thursday night this season -- Packers, Steelers, Bucs -- have lost by at least 20 points.

    Road teams are just poison on TNF.
     
  18. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Waiting to see what the final numbers will be for Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State.
     
  19. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    edit nevermind figured it out
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Which way you leaning?
     
  21. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Had never heard of this but I'll check it out.

    I need to compile the results of the system I talked about through Week 3. There are two systems because there are two pools I'm in, one on CBS Sports and the other Office Football Pool. The signals don't give you all 16 games. You really only want to pay attention to it when it's a fairly strong signal.

    My sense is that both are somewhere around 60%. I don't know for sure.
     
  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Did you mean no overs? That would make more sense, no?
     
  23. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    David is actually somewhat of an acquaintance of mine. Smart guy, works in finance. His model picks ~54% winners over the long-run.

    EDIT: you definitely should not tail people's picks. The best of the best are at 54%, and that advantage could easily be wiped out by not getting the same numbers they do.
     
  24. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Going with the safe pick... Nevermind what Arkansas did to Texas Tech, that was expected.. this is a team that gave up 35 to Cent Arkansas and 26 to UTEP... UTEP..... Gotta keep taking the points until it stops working especially if it's against a good offense.

    7:30 game tonight:
    Oklahoma State TT 41.5
     
  25. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    Well on here you can see what numbers they get. It was advice since we're all here to try to win.
     
  26. xDOLPHINSx

    xDOLPHINSx Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Will they show week 4 picks before the games begin?
     
  27. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    They publish them on Saturdays.
     
  28. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Yeah, honestly you guys really should be betting into openers. If you're waiting until Saturday/Sunday you aren't going to get the best numbers.
     
  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I've been tracking this season and there's really not been a ton of movement in the lines with respect to college football.

    I have enough on my plate so I don't really care to do the research I would need to in order to win college football ATS pools and stuff, but I am part of one at work so I take the easy way out. I just compare the final lines (5dimes) an hour before the games start to the OfficeFootballPool lines which were set based on the opening lines. If a team should be giving me +7 according to the final lines but OFP is only giving me +4.5 then I'm inclined to pick against them. I intermix that with maybe 2 picks (we have to make 10 total each week) that I feel strong about for one reason or another, and that's that.

    Right now I'm 66.7% through four weeks which to me indicates that Vegas is getting hammered. I certainly didn't opt for this strategy hoping for 60+ percent. I figured I'd get a little above 50 percent on the picks I made this way, and that maybe there would be some added value with some of my gut feeling picks, and you really don't need to be 60% to win this pool anyway.
     
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  30. King Felix

    King Felix Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ucla -4 tonight. Taylor Kelly out and hundley back
     
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  31. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The over-under I see is at 68 points. Where do you see 41.5??
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Good reasons to take UCLA but I'm still staying away. I've been burned twice this season by road teams on Thursday night and I'm not about to do it again. I think ASU brings a great crowd to the stadium, I like their defense, and Hundley is too unpredictable.
     
  33. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Oh it's Oklahoma State Total Team points Over 41.5. @betonline.ag

    [​IMG]

    It dropped to 40.5 since. lol I'd still take it, Texas Tech's defense is garbage.
     
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  34. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    You shouldn't use 5dimes lines for that purpose. Try using Pinnacle:

    http://www.pinnaclesports.com/League/Football/NCAA/1/Lines.aspx
    http://www.pinnaclesports.com/League/Football/NFL/1/Lines.aspx

    (make sure you change the drop down at the top from decimal odds to American odds).

    Pinnacle lines are going to be sharper than 5dimes, generally speaking.

    But you're essentially using an arbitrage strategy, which is one of the best ways to profit.
     
  35. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Betonline posts Total Team Points for every game, throughout the week that column is blank but on game days they start posting team points.
     
  36. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    With Michigan State and Wyoming's line Over/Under being 48 and Michigan State is 27 point favorites you bet your *** I'm going to take Michigan State to score Over 28 on Saturday...
     
  37. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Yep staying away from that game, I was tempted at -4 as well but I don't like Hundley, he is too erratic and Arizona State's defense has been good the past couple years though they did lose some players to the NFL.
     
  38. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That was my goal. Like I said with this pool you don't have to work very high above 50% to end up in contention for the title...so I figure an arbitrage strategy such as this is the surest way to get above that 50 mark.

    As I said though the success or failure of it can also be a de facto indication of whether Vegas is getting beaten by bettors or not. My personal belief is that slowly, Vegas oddsmakers are losing ground to more sophisticated betting syndicates. And so I happen to think in addition to being an arbitrage strategy, it may very well hold predictive value.
     
  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Wouldn't this be another form of arbitrage?

    What is Wyoming's specific over-under?
     
  40. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    Won't be posted until Saturday.
     

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