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Jarvis Landry maybe a Project??

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by dolfan40, May 15, 2014.

  1. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Blackmon is a poor example though. He may not be 6-3, but that has had little to do with his play. On a team with awful quarterbacking, he's been pretty productive when he has played. His numbers over his first 20 NFL games are pretty comparable to the likes of Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Dez Bryant, etc. The fact that he is a knucklehead and has been suspended a lot has nothing to do with his height or anything else measured at the combine (except maybe blood/urine testing).
     
  2. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Those are numbers I usually pay close attention to when looking at potential NFL slot receivers. I think you do too right? What stands out to me is these were pro day times. They should be the easiest to improve with the extra time between the combine and pro day. My greatest concern is that his outstanding ability to pluck everything against college DBs has potentially masked things like separation speed and running agility.
     
  3. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    According to this chart, from an NFP article, the cone isn't as important when predicting WR success as we once may have thought.

    [​IMG]

    http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2014-Combine-viewing-guide.html
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I agree with this. He also had a very accurate quarterback. One thing you can't take away from Zach Mettenberger IMO is that he's accurate at all levels and had a great arm. It takes more than that to be an NFL quarterback and that's why I ultimately didn't have Mettenberger high, but from Jarvis Landry's standpoint when that bird was in the air it was flying fast, to a nice spot for him to show off his body control and hands.

    I tend to be forgiving on the downside of cone and shuttle drills, because sometimes there can be freak numbers put out that you know have nothing to do with what the guy does on tape. It's a technique drill, and like any technique drill if you don't practice the technique or you just screw up one foot placement or accidentally lose your balance suddenly your time sucks. I tend to pay attention to really good numbers though. The time that I'm tempted to count shuttle and cone times against a guy is when they BOTH suck. At that point there's a suggestion it wasn't just a slip up or unpolished technique.

    In Jarvis Landry's case he might claim that his hamstring pull at the Combined continued to affect his training and affected his pro day performance as well. Not sure I buy it personally.

    What I saw when I watched LSU tape, and this was true of both Beckham AND Landry, were two guys who faced a lot of air coverage. There were a lot of corners giving them a lot of space, and then an accurate quarterback delivering the football with a lot of velocity. With Landry I saw a lot of routes on the inside against linebackers and such, and I also saw a marvelous ability to finish catches against tight coverage...taking advantage of really well thrown passes, his body control and natural hands, and the fact that college defensive backs aren't as good with the football in the air. I didn't see ability to separate except in very short spaces (slants)...but the separation was generally eaten up quickly.

    Beckham was kind of the opposite. He can run routes and separate. But he can't finish when corners are able to stay with him.
     
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  5. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    My screen froze during my response so I had to take a snapshot of it.

    [​IMG]
    or any of the other slot receivers in the league, I can't recall any of them owning the trifecta- slow forty and poor shuttle/cone times.
     
  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    And to your point going back to what I was saying about the presence of kind of fluke-ish numbers, I would be curious looking back and finding if there's some kind of shuttle+cone number (perhaps percentile+percentile) that has a correlation there. Like I said in my experience there have been plenty of times when a guy has a fluke bad number on one of them, but maybe when both numbers are bad you should actually ding a guy.

    Then again the exceptions could center around guys that do indeed hit the trifecta of poor forty, shuttle and cone...and they could be guys like Anquan Boldin who ran his drills injured, or like Jarvis Landry who claims he did the same.
     
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  7. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    This Anquan Boldin comparison just really irritates me to no end for some reason.

    I mean, here are the comparisons:

    Height: 5114, 6005
    Weight: 205, 216
    40 Yd Dash: 4.61, 4.72
    20 Yd Dash: 2.69, 2.77
    10 Yd Dash: 1.58, 1.61
    Vertical Jump: 31.5, 33.5
    Broad Jump: 9'5", 9'6"
    Bench Press: 12, DNP
    20 Yd Shuttle: 4.59, 4.33
    3-Cone Drill: 7.56, 7.35

    The thing that kills me is that while Boldin did his stuff at the Combine injured and then didn't re-do them at his Pro Day, Jarvis Landry did. So if you go by what Jarvis Landry did at the Combine, and for the stuff in which he didn't participate you sub in his Pro Day numbers, here is the more apples-to-apples comparison:

    Height: 5114, 6005
    Weight: 205, 216
    40 Yd Dash: 4.77, 4.72
    20 Yd Dash: 2.78, 2.77
    10 Yd Dash: 1.69, 1.61
    Vertical Jump: 28.5, 33.5
    Broad Jump: 9'2", 9'6"
    Bench Press: 12, DNP
    20 Yd Shuttle: 4.59, 4.33
    3-Cone Drill: 7.56, 7.35

    Anquan Boldin was an inch taller, ten pounds heavier, significantly faster shuttle and cone drill times, better vertical jump, was faster at the Combine, and anyone that watched tape of Boldin at FSU knows that he was WAY stronger physically than Jarvis Landry, with better RAC skills.

    Yet they get compared and in reality it's because people are just trying to remember the last guy who tested poorly at that position and still had a great career.
     
  8. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    wow, the Boldin-Landry measurables/times are eerily similar here Chris.... like I feel like I'm looking at the same player. :shifty:
     
  9. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    There's gotta be some sort of correlation. Obviously there's a threshold here where the times equate to a dead NFL career, just as we're not gonna see a successful 6'11 QB. We'd just have to dig to find what that threshold is. From my recollection I don't recall anyone with both a slow 3-cone AND slow shuttle times who run slow at under 6'0. If there's a list, it's a small one.
     
  10. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think I have heard Stedman Bailey thrown around as a comparison for Jarvis Landry. But that is a really bad comparison. Even if you use the "best number" policy for Jarvis Landry, mixing and matching his Combine and Pro Day numbers to get the best set of numbers, here is the comparison between the two:

    Height: 5114, 5102
    Weight: 205, 193
    40 Yd Dash: 4.61, 4.46
    20 Yd Dash: 2.69, 2.51
    10 Yd Dash: 1.58, 1.59
    Vertical Jump: 31.5, 34.5
    Broad Jump: 9'5", 9'9"
    Bench Press: 12, DNP
    20 Yd Shuttle: 4.59, 4.09
    3-Cone Drill: 7.56, 6.81

    I think my point about the Shuttle+Cone thing was perhaps there's low correlation between NFL production/success and a cone drill times individually, or perhaps there's low correlation between success and shuttle times individually, but if you were to standardize cone and shuttle times and add the two together, I bet there would be a higher correlation between that amalgem score and pro success.
     
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  11. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Including the injury while running those drills..:shifty:
     
  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    By the way I'm having trouble finding WRs that come even close to Landry's shuttle/cone numbers.

    DeAndre Hopkins ran a 4.50 shuttle which is awful but he came back on his pro day and ran a 6.81 cone. This is a perfect example of what I was talking about how every now and then you see an awful cone or awful shuttle time, much worse than you'd expect on that player, and you're tempted to just forgive poor times because of it. But I think it's important that they weren't both awful. Similarly Stephen Hill ran an awful 4.48 shuttle but he came back and ran a 6.88 cone.

    Trindon Holliday, Carlton Mitchell, Dezmon Briscoe and Marcus Easley ran toward the 4.5 to 4.6 area in shuttle. None also ran a poor cone though.

    Jaison Williams, Kenny Britt, Quan Cosby and Kenny Britt ran poor shuttles. But only Jaison Williams also ran a poor cone. He was 6'4" & 237 lbs.

    Taurus Johnson of USF ran a 4.24 shuttle and 7.37 cone at 6'0" & 206 lbs. But he ran the 40 in 4.49 seconds.

    Here's your best comparison though. Kevin Robinson of Utah State ran a whopping 4.77 shuttle and 7.31 cone. He also ran a 4.69 forty and was only 6'0" & 202 lbs. He was also Kevin Robinson, and I'm not sure he caught a single football in the NFL.

    Jerome Simpson, Taj Smith, Shaheer McBride and Mark Bradford all ran 4.5 type shuttles. But all of them had significantly better cones.

    Mario Manningham was only 6'0" and 181 lbs, ran a 4.59 forty, 4.27 shuttle, 7.34 cone with a 32 inch vertical. Thing is he went back to his pro day and ran a 4.48 forty with 35 inch vertical. Although he ran an even slower shuttle at 4.38.

    Cory Rodgers of TCU (who went to Green Bay as I recall) was only 6'0" & 188 lbs, ran a 4.58 forty and 7.38 cone. But he ran a 4.19 shuttle.

    Here's another guy that fits Landry. Howard Gilmore of Norfolk State was 6'0" & 194 lbs, ran a 4.71 forty with 4.49 shuttle and 7.56 cone drill. That's right up Landry's alley.

    Or also Charles Frederick of Washington who at 5'11" & 194 lbs ran a 4.78 forty with 4.35 shuttle and 7.41 cone.

    Bottom line? You either buy the story that all his times were poisoned by his hamstring injury, or you don't.
     
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  13. Xeticus

    Xeticus Junior Member

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    Honestly if Landry pans out someone else will get cut or traded to save money. Also he is probably insurance against next year. How many of our current receivers might leave as free agents next year?
     
  14. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't really know of any current significant wide receivers that are due to be free agents next year. Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace are signed long term and Brandon Gibson is signed through 2015.
     
  15. 13Machine8385

    13Machine8385 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Knowing that we could have drafted Brandin Cooks or Allen Robinson (Or both..... I would have) kills me inside. I don't want to see any highlights of either of those players not wearing a Dolphins uniform ever. Too painful.

    As for Landry. We picked him, so this is the part where we do everything we can to shine a positive light on our draft picks. This year it's Landry. Even though his workouts were horrendous, we will have to dig deep to find what he does well and why he will succeed.

    He was a good player in the best conference. He's got that going for him. His hands are great. He's tough, and he catches the ball well in traffic. All good things. He seems to be a tremendous competitor also and plays with heart. He's a football player. He will be a Dolphin for a long time IMO and we will love him. for what he brings. Will that ever equate to second round value is the answer that we will have to wait for.

    I was wondering what the perception of Landry was coming out of high school so I looked him up on Rivals.com for 2011. He was the #4 ranked WR in the country and one of only four 5 star recruits that year at that position.
    http://sports.yahoo.com/footballrec...andry-79027;_ylt=AjjKaiKo5ztpxZ9.QE3MpRxGPZB4

    Interesting to look back at this. Tends to make me feel like he has a better chance to succeed than not.
     
  16. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Don't get the Boldin comparisons either and haven't heard the Bailey comparison til now. Hines Ward is the comparison that keeps bubbling up here and elsewhere.

    Ward's combine:
    Height: 5115
    Weight: 195
    40 YD Dash: 4.55
    Bench Press: N/A
    Short Shuttle 4.09
    Long Shuttle 11.02
    Vertical Jump: 30.5
    Broad Jump: 09’00”

    As some of the drills have changed since 98: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/events/1998/nfldraft/news/1998/04/13/howtocharts/
     
  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I mentioned Bailey and Landrys name together but not comparing them, just saying that they both had a player on the other side that was very talented and how that may of affected coverage, and that I had third round grades on both.
     
  18. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Soooo... you admit it it was you... :shifty:

    [​IMG]
     
  19. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    With all the talk of combine numbers, here's something interesting from Harvard Sports Analysis. It doesn't combine times to make any aggregate scores, but they look at combine drills regressed against Career Approximate Value. It's certainly not perfect, but the results seem to be more based in reality than the NFP article which doesn't give a whole lot of info on why the drills are "predictive".

    http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/02/27/does-the-nfl-combine-matter-offense/

    Notable quote:

     
  20. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Exactly, felt that in my guy tbh, yrs of watching the league tells me 40 times mean very little

    Black Ninja, before he went off on the trip cosmic, is a great example of 40 times meaning not much at all
     
  21. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Sure it's generalized because the writer combined all WRs. Also, I don't know how he defined success. NFL starter for X number of years. X number of years on an NFL roster, or what. Still, assuming he is on to something, and looking at the most predictive 2 numbers being the 40 and the 10 yd times, and assuming that is true, at his pro day, Landry got his 10 yd time down to 1.58, which is a middle of the pack time. So maybe there is not so much need for all this worry about how poorly overall Landry performed. Maybe too, the hammy was still bothering him a little at his pro day, but just not as much as at the combine.
     
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  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    lol, I'm not sure that was what CK was referring to but just my 2cent..
     
  23. Killer Carlson

    Killer Carlson New Member

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    I can see the comparisons to Boldin because of his hands and slow 40 time but he's not nearly as physical a runner. In this case Boldin is really being sold short. He ran through defenders like a rb during his prime.
     

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