Free Agents/ Breakout Season Candidates

I talked a lot about how the roster was built to be weak in short yardage before the season began. The argument against me was that it wouldn't make that big of an impact.

I beg to differ. When you are set up to fail in short yardage on run plays, that induces your play-caller to call plays as if he doesn't think you can gain that hard yard the way most teams gain it. So then you start calling plays that look odd given the situation, and that just snowballs into even worse success in short yardage.

That's essentially what happened in Miami this year.

It affected everything. Our 3rd & 1 and 4th & 1 play calling looked odd to many and was exhibited as a reason to fire Mike Sherman. But those play calls were odd because the short yardage success of more normal intuitive plays was so low. It also affected our 4th down strategy because you don't go for it if you don't think you can make it. It affected our 3rd & 2 and 3rd & 3 strategy. Depending on where you are on the field, you might run the football on those plays thinking that you'll either convert the down or you'll come just a yard shy of doing so and therefore you can go for it on 4th & 1. But if you have no confidence in short yardage situations, you know you have to go for everything on those downs...you can't fall short.

 

Fellas. Please stop with the trading of Dion Jordan speculation.

He has a dead money number of over $20 Million. It's ridiculous to even speak of.

 

With all the guaranteed money already tied up in LBs, I really doubt we'll look that direction in free agency. $11 mil combined guaranteed in Ellerbe and Wheeler, no matter if they start, are backups, or sitting on their couch. Misi has a cap number of $2.3 mil. For 2014, it looks to me like we already shot our wads at the LB position.

Thanks Jeff.

 

Dead money would only come into play if he were cut though I thought. Say we traded him for Lane Johnson, wouldn't both teams just assume the contract of the acquired player?

 

That's correct. The Dolphins are only on the hook for whatever money they have already paid him. They gave him a $13,341,680 signing bonus, of which $3,335,420 has already been expensed against the 2013 salary cap. The remaining $10,006,260 would accelerate against Miami's salary cap...which means his current salary cap number for 2014 of $4,675,524 would increase to $10,006,260 by trading him.

However, the Dolphins would also be off the hook for $6,825,629 that would be due to him in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

The trade only makes sense if you believe you're getting something very valuable in exchange for him.

 

Nope. Dead money comes into effect regardless of cut or trade.

 

It depends on to what you're referring.

The Dolphins are only on the hook to whatever monies have already exchanged hands. That's the rule of thumb.

 

From my understanding it'd be similar to the Trent Richardson trade.. except the dead money would just go towards the 2014 season if we traded him before June 1.

 

Very true.

I see him as a low risk/high reward kind of guy for a team like the Jets, who had to go with Willie Colon at RG last year.

 

Would they (the rams) actually do that? Cause a highly motivated Jake Long coming off an injury might shave 15 sacks off last year's number alone.

 

Not necessarily. The Bengals have a few higher dollar FAs to re-sign plus draft picks, and they already have their starting MIKE & WILL in Maualuga & Burfict so it's possible they might view a $2 million, second round tender for a backup to be excessive. After all, we ARE talking about the Bengals here. Not exactly a reputation for being spendthrifts. Vincent Rey went undrafted so it's not like they can use the $1.3M original round tender.

 

I think Toby Gerhart is a pretty strong breakout candidate at a position the Dolphins need. He's a power back but not limited to that. He's got reasonably good big-play production, he's had success on a wide variety of run plays or types(including outside zone), and he's productive in the passing game.

He hasn't gotten enough carries in Minnesota behind an elite back. When he has gotten more than the perfunctory 1-5, he's had I think a promising amount of success.

 

I think this is a bit of wishful thinking. If he's an RFA then unless the Bengals just don't even tender him (which would be a shock since you say he's good), then he's off the board IMO.

 

Miami is responsible for all guarantees and bonuses to Dion. Any cuts, trades, etc accelerate our cap.

Dion, isn't going anywhere.

 

Dion Jordan can run like a deer in every direction..n.s.e.w...

Please let this kid play football and run and tackle..don't lock him into d-end.

 

Yeah, I think it was a big deal. You spell out some other ways that it impacts the offense and play calling. We really didn't have a tough runner, or a good line. I don't need a big back, but a tough back. If he's both, fine. Someone that is a threat for tough yards and catching the ball would be nice. And a blocker.

 

I'd offer him a deal if the Bengals gave him an original round tender, which means if they didn't match we wouldn't have to give up any pick since he was originally undrafted. I REALLY like this guy, I watched a ton of Cincy games at the bar this year, especially since I had the Bengals D in like 3 fantasy leagues, he didn't get much of an opportunity until Maualuga got hurt but when his number was finally called, boy did he capitalize, he was EVERYWHERE, I remember their first game against Baltimore that went to OT, I swear he did more in that game alone than Wheeler did for us all season lol.

God talking about him just angers me more that we didn't interview Duke Tobin...although he probably would have turned us down anyway.

 

I don't disagree with you, but I also think it's not guaranteed that Cincy's owner will want to pay $2 million for a backup linebacker, which they would have to do in order to tender him high enough to keep the buzzards away, and if they place an original round tender on Rey, they most likely wont match the highest offer.

 

You realize you're talking about Cincy, right? The Bengals being in great cap space and actually using their cap space are two different things. They're notoriously bad for penny pinching, so much so that the new 89% salary cap floor should probably be called the Cincinnati Rule. They left $10 million on the table last year, which means they could leave roughly $17 million on it this year and still be at the required 89% salary capacity. So essentially they only need to spend about $9 million, which could be satisfied by the 2014 rookie class and re-signing Michael Johnson.

Although, the 89% salary cap floor requirement is over 4 years, so Cincy could conceivably be Cincy and not spend a penny this year if they choose not to do so and then make up the difference next year or the year after to get them back up to 89%. Rather than remaining at a consistent 89% throughout the 4 years, it wouldn't surprise me to see their cheapskate owner Mike Brown operate below that during the first 3 years in an attempt to earn interest off all those saved millions and then max out the cap in year 4 to make up the difference.

 

Not to mention it's completely stupid given his natural talent and ceiling. He was justifiably the 3rd overall pick for a reason. All this BS about giving up on him is mind blowing. I don't get it.

 

At RB think Tate would be a good pick if he's a FA, I signed him on a FA on Madden 25 and he's kicking *** so would be a good signing

 

Do you think a straight up trade for Lane Johnson would be worthwhile considering the cap ramifications?

 

I think Philbin wanted Ireland to sign Leach, so that would indicate he wanted to have a better short yardage offense than the personnel we ended up with would allow us to have.

 

Weren't we the only team to force a turnover in every game.

 

:banghead:

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

 

Yeah, not good particularly as much as they were hyped preseason.

 

Personally? Yes. The Dolphins would be eating a lot of money that they already paid Dion Jordan but the Eagles would also be eating a lot of money that they already paid Lane Johnson. It really does cancel out, because whatever money the Dolphins already paid Jordan makes him cheaper to the Eagles whereas whatever money the Eagles have already paid Johnson makes him cheaper to the Dolphins. Cancels out.

It's like a 1% chance it happens. It's fantasy football discussions.

 

http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Dion Jordan&Position=43DE&Team=Dolphins
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/dion-jordan/

Both have Dion Jordan's dead money at $16.8 million. That's how much of the cap would be going to him....or an additional $12.1 million against the cap that this team could ill afford.

Philly would also be absorbing over $11 million and change and without cuts/carry over right now they are at $125 million in salary cap (which is why the rumor of a 1st has floated).

Trading Dion would just be plain bad as it would hamper efforts at re-signing and fixing that OL.

 

This is not quite correct.

You may not realize it, but by paying attention solely to the "dead money" figure you are pretending the Miami Dolphins are cutting Dion Jordan. And then you're pretending the Philadelphia Eagles are cutting Lane Johnson.

The Dolphins have guaranteed Dion Jordan's salaries for 2014, 2015 and 2016, but they have not paid them. Whoever owns his contract will pay them. The Dolphins are not on the hook for those salaries in a trade scenario. Nor are they on the hook for roster bonuses, guaranteed or not guaranteed.

Again I have to tell people you have to pay attention ONLY to whatever money exchanges hands. People get lost in accounting rules and principles and it's not necessary.

What money has changed hands with Dion Jordan?

They gave him a $13,341,680 signing bonus. That money changed hands. Therefore, one way or another, the Dolphins have to account for that money on their books. They also gave him $405,000 as a salary in 2013. They have to account for that on their books as well.

But they already accounted for $3,740,420 in 2013. That's flushed down the toilet. It's gone. They'll never have to account for that $3,740,420 again. This means that there is $10,006,260 that is unaccounted for.

If the Dolphins trade Dion Jordan then that is all the money they will ever have to account for on their own books. That's it. That's the remainder of what they already paid him, but have yet to account for.

And those are the only three things that are important. What's been paid, what's owed, what's accounted for. What's been paid is $13,746,680. What's been accounted for is $3,740,420. What is owed to him (in a TRADE scenario, which is important) is $0.

Essentially the moment Miami trades Dion Jordan (if it's before June 1st), his salary cap number for 2014 jumps from $4,675,524 to $10,006,260. And then they'll never have a salary cap number for Dion Jordan ever again.

The flip side to this is the Eagles with Lane Johnson. What has been paid is $13,223,620. What has been accounted for already is $3,609,655. In a trade scenario they will owe him nothing more. The Dolphins will pick up the check from then on. So immediately upon trading Lane his salary cap number would go from $4,512,069 to $9,613,965...and then the Eagles will never have another accounting entry for Johnson ever again.

Why do I say that these trades would essentially cancel one another out? Simple.

The total value of Johnson's contract is $19,853,103 of which they've already paid $13,223,620. The total value of Dion Jordan's contract is $20,572,309...of which we have already paid $13,746,680.

We would be acquiring a player that we are only responsible to pay $6,629,483 over the next 3 years. That's a cheap player. The Eagles would be acquiring a player they only need to pay $6,825,629 over the next 3 years. That's also a cheap player. In the end the Eagles will have paid Lane Johnson/Dion Jordan $20,049,249 for 4 years of service while the Dolphins would have paid Dion Jordan/Lane Johnson $20,376,163 for 4 years of service.

That's why it is a pretty even swap.

The only thing that will have changed is that whereas the Dolphins cap numbers WERE set to have a smooth incline (from $3.7m to $4.7m to $5.6m to $6.5m)...instead the contract will have been structured to have a big bubble cap figure in Year 2.

Which is pretty much exactly how Mike Wallace's contract was set up, by the way. And Philip Wheeler's, to some extent.

 

I've never heard of a trade being any different then a cut when it comes to absolute guarantees (roster bonuses etc of course). Always thought guaranteed base salaries were treated like pro-rated option bonuses (Spotrac even reports Jordan's as $15.5 million initial guaranteed), but I'll take your word on it. Either way I highly doubt such will happen just because of the cap charges. Miami has far too much to do and will need every cap dollar. Philly is already starting fairly deep unless they start cutting big savings guys like Jason Peters to pay for such.

 

The salary cap is not really a concern for this potential deal, IMO. The Dolphins won't worry about it. They have a LOT of room. They will be shifting some of this year's salary cap space into next year, IMO.

You could be right about it being a concern for the Eagles. They may not like the idea of trading Lane Johnson for Dion Jordan and losing $6.4 million in cap space for the pleasure of it.

Miami could justify it, though. They would be going from Dion Jordan, who played 29% of snaps and gave them 2 sacks...to Lane Johnson, who played 99.7% of snaps, drew positive PFF grades and would immediately shift over to a very important left tackle position. Going from a part time player on the team to a full time player on the team would be costing the Dolphins an additional $6.6 million in 2014. That's not cheap, but it's justifiable.

 

Salary cap room spent on trading Jordan could be used to improve the team. IMO, they do need to worry about it.

Though Lane Johnson and Dion Jordan would be a wash though.

The 29% of the snaps just makes me hate the coaching staff more.

 

Dion Jordan himself needs to take some of the blame for that low participation if everything I've heard is correct. And no people, I'm not able to expand on that any more, so please don't flip out on me as if I'm the worst human alive because I have to be cryptic.

You mentioned that the $6.6 million could be used better to improve the team. Let's keep two things in mind though.

1. That $6.6 added cost is an accounting shift of 2015 and 2016 money into 2014. It all washes out. The 2015 and 2016 salary caps get higher at the expense of the 2014 salary cap, but there is no new added costs long term. In fact, opposite. The remainder of Johnson's contract is slightly cheaper than the remainder of Jordan's contract.

2. You could also look at it as $6.6 million spent on doing exactly what you want...improving the team. It just depends on what your expectations were for Jordan this year. But let's hypothetically consider the possibility that he were about to have virtually the same year in 2014 that he had in 2013. With the same coaching staff in place and both Cam Wake and Olivier Vernon still ahead of him, this is not THAT big a stretch of the imagination. Then merely going from a 29% role player on the DL to a 100% starter at left tackle IS an improvement to the team. A needed improvement in an area of need. The irony is people saying that's money we need to rebuild the O-Line. Well, that's what you're doing!

 

Well CK I don't know everything that goes on behind the scenes, however I do knoe that when on the field he played well enough in every aspect to deserve more time.

 

When Ireland traded up last year, I think at the moment it was announced most of us assumed Johnson would be the pick. Even being a Ducks fan, I really kind of wish now he had of been. The 2013 team would have been better with Johnson on the roster rather than Jordan IMO. I think part of the way it happened could have been Ireland thinking if he took another LT after drafting Martin for the eventual job a season ago, it may have looked like he was admitting failure. Same as what appears to be his mindset for not trading for Albert or McKinnie in the off season.

 

Did Lane show any improvement as the season went on? His pass blocking efficiency finished lower then Clabo's. 10 sacks/8 hits/39 pressures is pretty J.Mart like.