Justin Hardy looks like a clean slot receiver prospect. He moves exactly like you need to move for that position, very in control and quick. He's solidly built. He goes up for the football in rhythm. He sets down after the catch and is able to run with it. The fact that he's got 266 receptions at the college level speaks well for his ability to translate into the slot position at the next level, as the slot guys that succeed in the NFL tend to be over-producers in college that have great experience level and savvy. The communication and accuracy of the route are really key at the slot position and that's why born and bred wide receivers tend to man that spot. If I were to make an argument against him it would be that physically he's unremarkable and will likely never be more than a slot player, and not a dynamic slot player at that. You can see when he played Virginia Tech and the physical, athletic, aggressive cover guys they have going at that program, he was overwhelmed a little bit. He's not breaking tackles after the catch against those guys. They're on him like white on rice and it's a coin flip whether he's going to catch the football in that kind of tight coverage. Essentially the things that worked against guys like Quinton Patton, Stedman Bailey and Chad Bumphis will work against Justin Hardy when it comes to being drafted...except he's a little bit more Chad Bumphis than Patton or especially Bailey. I don't know if he's got Bailey's pure play making ability. It's weird but in the NFL you could see him producing, perhaps even a lot, on the right team in the right situation (manning the slot on teams with excellent QBs). But you can also see him getting cut and put on practice squads as teams look for players with more explosive tendencies, even at the slot position.
Really taking a liking to Chris Davis of Auburn as a corner prospect as well as a return prospect. It should go without saying that he's an excellent return man, even if you don't know anything about that 109 field goal return for a touchdown. But as a corner he shows the ability to stay in anyone's hip pocket and to out-physical even some of the biggest, most physical receivers in the game. He shows the aggressiveness to really stick players after the catch. When he sees the route, his click and close ability is very good, about what you'd expect of such an explosive return guy. This is the kind of guy that has the physical potential you want at the next level to be a tight, aggressive cover man. His run stopping might need a little work. He needs a little work recognizing route concepts in time to close on them but then again he also shows potential in that...not just recognizing the route he's up against in man but actually recognizing the concept to his side. He's going to give you excellent return ability while you wait on him to start recognizing things a little more quickly.
Kind of bouncing around between QBs, WRs and TEs as I'm trying to put together a good set of data before I really post anything, so I've taken a look at Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and Eric Ebron. I'm leaving out Amaro until I know his draft status since it'd be a lot of work if he didn't declare. Ebron: In looking at him earlier in the year, I had concerns about his hands and drops. I still have those concerns. On the season he dropped 11.3% of catchable passes thrown his way. That's extremely high and confirms what you see on tape - he makes nice difficult catches, but will drops easy passes and passes in traffic. Drops aren't as necessarily bad in a TE as they are in WR, but it still leaves me concerned for a guy that's mostly a pass catching TE. He is very impressive after the catch, averaging 9 yards after the catch beats Travis Kelce's ridiculous numbers from last year. However, we have to be aware that once you cap that 75 yard catch and run against Miami, his YAC drops to 6.71 which is still nice, but much more normal for a good TE. 3.6 yards of his YAC are after initial contact, which is about what you'd expect from a good RB - so he does really drive through defenders. If you're drafting Ebron, you're just not getting a red zone threat - at least he didn't show it at UNC. Only 7% of his receptions (4 total) came within 20 yards of the goal line which matches his paltry 3 touchdowns on the year. In keeping with what CK has said all year, he plays a lot like a WR and that doesn't translate into the production you'd want in the red zone for a TE. I don't see how he'd be a better red zone threat than say...Charles Clay. Only 2 of his 55 receptions were 20+ yards down the field which is substantially less than Ertz and Eifert has last year (~8-12). I don't know if that's a product of the system or a lack of ability to get open downfield, but it's not a skill he demonstrated regularly. ASJ: I'll be very interested if he declares to see him at the combine. Sometimes watching him, it seems like there's a lot of wasted movement in his arms when he runs. Don't know if that's just a product of being a very tall person or something else, would like to see it in a controlled setting. ASJ is much more like Ertz and Eifert than Ebron is. Although I don't think Sefarian-Jenkins is on the same level of those two, he represents that tall, red zone threat with limited YAC much more than Ebron. ASJ averaged 3.5 yards after the catch on the season which is about the same as Ertz/Eifert, but really isn't something you care about too much with a guy his size. He's not going to convert a lot of 1st downs via his legs (he only converted 6% of all receptions into first downs with his legs), but he's going to be a post-up TE so to speak. 31% of all of ASJ's receptions were in the red zone, playing more towards the traditional TE role you'd expect. Interestingly UW lined him up on the LOS whether it was in-line, in the slot, or outside 84% of the time compared to Ebron at 24% of the time. ASJ for all of his YAC faults is very good at beating press and physical defenders with a variety of moves. Sefarian-Jenkins only had 2 receptions longer than 20 yards, but on 20 less total receptions than Ebron. 34% of ASJ's receptions were in the 11-20 range, so while he's not going to get the same 75 yard run that Ebron is, he's still moving the chains with intermediate receptions. The TE class gets pretty muddled after the top 3, so I'm going to be exploring a lot of the lesser known TEs for...acorns this year. Should be interessting.
A little while back someone posted a video of TE CJ Fiedorowicz from Iowa. Dude is huge and looks like a great all around prospect to me- size, strength, speed, the works. Paired with Dion Sims or Charles Clay, I see possibilities there. The Pats or the Steelers will probably grab him. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1N65H9w-XM http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVPEMKaPz-I
I think we need to make a high priority for OLB, big TE receiving threat, big WR, kick return specialist/receiving RB
Awesome stuff, thanks NUGap. I'm not crazy about Ebron. Ebron to me is lacking in a few key areas: blocking most obviously, the redzone struggles you point out, and most importantly the guy seems to struggle catching the ball in traffic, which explains his redzone issues. He doesn't seem to use his size to his advantage often enough, and I'd like to see him use his feet with more quickness when he's working the middle to find that crack of daylight to give his QB a nice target. I never get the sense that he's really owning an area of the field when he sits in a zone or is working between LB/S. Good in space and with YAC, as you point out, when he can release well and make less-contested grabs. But I just don't see him consistently manage tight spaces or dominate in traffic like you need a TE to. ASJ looks stiff as hell to me. His movement looks unnatural, lacks fluidity. Great beating press with that strength, like you say, but just not sure he can do enough with quickness to get open with great consistency. The way he moves just kind of bugs me. Will be watching him closely tonight to get a better idea of his game. Both are really intriguing size/speed/strength guys though, so I may be nitpicking a bit. Could be guys whose tools allow them to blossom with NFL coaching and in more disciplined offenses. I have a hard time guessing which TEs will succeed with how the college game is played now. I'm big on Amaro and the Iowa kid though, I know that much. I would love to have Fiedorowicz on this team. Really wish Lyerla wasn't, uh, ya know...
This is just a suggestion. But instead of tabulating red zone targets as a percentage of that player's targets, perhaps you should tabulate red zone targets as a percentage of total team targets. I'm not doubting there's an actual disparity in how the two players were used, I just think it would be cleaner to see how often the two were targeted as a percentage of the team's plays in the red zone. Just looking at ESPN splits for example, I don't know about the target data but Jace Amaro had 13 catches inside the red zone. That represents 26.5% of the 49 completions that the Red Raiders had inside the red zone. Austin Seferian-Jenkins had 6 catches inside the red zone, which 19.4% of the 31 completions that Huskies quarterbacks had inside the red zone. So actually Jace Amaro was the bigger part of his team's red zone passing offense, but if you were to express them as the percentages you mentioned before then you'd say that 18% of ASJ's catches were red zone catches whereas only 13% of Amaro's catches were red zone catches.
To go further on that point, I only have 4 catches for Eric Ebron inside the red zone. However, I only have 17 total completions for North Carolina inside the red zone. So actually that represents 23.5% of the team's successful passing game inside the red zone.
Billy Turner fans, here's a nice block for you to watch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ezvwm4hFfXM&feature=player_detailpage#t=5589 If it doesn't bring you to the right time index just re-click it and do it again. Or fast forward it yourself to 1:33:09. Be sure to watch the replays. Just about by himself he ended up walling off like four or five defenders from the runner who gained like 70+ yards on the run.
I'm working backwards here on another tight end prospect I am only just now getting to know but whom some scouts believe will go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds in the 2014 NFL Draft. This is Richard Rodgers of Cal. He is 6'4" and 245 lbs. Jersey #11 TE Richard Rodgers vs. Stanford http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FlsfJv-LOVk#t=874 http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FlsfJv-LOVk#t=2664 CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FlsfJv-LOVk#t=3173 http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FlsfJv-LOVk#t=3235 CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FlsfJv-LOVk#t=3716 CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8dBz0xhqpQU#t=160 CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8dBz0xhqpQU#t=654 CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8dBz0xhqpQU#t=1445 Jersey #11 TE Richard Rodgers vs. Colorado http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkOXM2RZ8aY&feature=player_embedded#t=5101 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkOXM2RZ8aY&feature=player_embedded#t=5389 CATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkOXM2RZ8aY&feature=player_embedded#t=6949 REPLAY: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkOXM2RZ8aY&feature=player_embedded#t=6969 I'll get to more later.
This TE class really is muddled after the top few guys. You have Ebron, ASJ, Amaro (maybe), and maybe Fiedorwicz at the top for the most part. Richard Rodgers of Cal who is a bit of a WR/TE mix just declared. Jake Murphy from Utah (who is already 25) just declared as a Junior. You've got guys like Arthur Lynch, Alex Bayer, Crockett Gilmore, Joe Don Duncan, Marcel Jensen who are all in the mix for second/third tier status. Then you have half-back kind of guys like Gator Hoskins of Marshall, Chris Coyle of Arizona State, and Zane Fakes of Ball State. It's all a mix and I don't think anyone really has it sorted out yet. TEs typically don't have a lot of receptions, so I'm going to try to get through as many of these guys as possible. We'll see.
I like Ebron. I like his athleticism and speed at which he plays, it helps break down the D in the required 3 seconds. I am looking at explosion, size, and skill, and he is up there. I think CJ Feidorowicz would better fit what we need which is the size and strength at point of attack and one-on-one matchups, such as redzone and short yardage, even tho he is not as explosive off the line or in space.
Finished up the stats on Richard Rodgers, I'm being pretty lazy right now so I'll post them without too much commentary. I'm missing three catches from the Portland State game (I have the 75 yard pass), but they won't affect the numbers too much. YAC: 8.17 yards, YAC Cap: 6.11 yards Yards after Contact: 3.31 yards (compared to Ebron's 3.64) Drop rate: 7.7% - although 2 of the 3 drops were in the rainy game against Oregon - none were particularly egregious. It's pretty clear Rodgers has good hands and the ability to pick the ball out of the air. Rodgers was lined up on the O-line for 20% of total pass attempts, these came mostly in the last three games of the season. 80% of the time he was in the slot. 50% of his receptions were in the 1-5 yard range, 25% in the 6-10 yard, 25% in the 11-20 and no receptions longer than 20 yards. He converted 25% of his receptions into 1st downs via YAC which is slightly higher than Ebron's 22%. Statistically there's not a whole lot of a difference between Ebron and Rodgers except that Ebron has slightly higher YAC, worse hands, and a slightly wider variety of catch points (deeper downfield, screens, etc)
A running back who doesn't seem to get much attention but I've grown fond of is Boise State's Jay Ajayi. Would swap him out for Gilleslee in a heartbeat. He was impressive last year as a redshirt freshman and this year has gotten quicker & faster and seems to still be ascending. Not sure how he's not regarded among the top backs.
Sankey, Jenkins, Van Noy,Hoffman all as billed tonight. I think the scouts did a really good job ranking these guys.
Fiedorowicz is very Martellus Bennett to me, and is exactly what we need. (Should've gone after Bennett instead of Keller, imo.) Brings a LOT to the run game, mean nasty blocker there; then he also does a little bit of everything in the passing game - good feel for leaking out of max protect as a check down, can turn the short drag routes upfield, can be a threat down the seam, difference-maker in the endzone. Just a great piece at the LOS and is solid at the other TE things you want to see. Wish we would see more of Dion Sims to know if picking a guy like Fiedorowicz is really necessary. I just think he looks like a great prospect.
RBs are obviously going to be of interest to us in this draft. I liked what I saw from Sankey. That second TD was a sweet run. Looks like a really solid back all around: lateral quickness his biggest strength, finishes runs physically for his size, 3-down player for sure, nice feel/patience at the LOS, can bounce it outside even if he does it too much. I feel like he needs to bulk up just a bit, but aside from that he's very pro-ready with his tools and versatility. The question I have with the supposedly top backs (Seastrunk, Mason, Sankey), is how good they are with contact. Who can shed/break tackles with the most consistency and be productive/tough through contact. Maybe it's the kinds of offenses they're in, but I have a hard time gauging that skill and it's just such a crucial one.
Sankey bounces of tackles best (imo project best into NFL because he is a downhill runner.) Seastrunk, reminds me of Barry Sanders, Reggie Bush elusiveness. (imo these backs take time, a lot of wasted motion going east west) Mason, reminds me of CJ2K and Jacquiz Rodgers, good balance, one cut, + speed. (imo hit or miss depending on the blocking scheme, tendency to go backwards to reach corner) None of them are particularly good blockers either. Mason is intriguing as a back who can get chunks in hurry in the flat. With a good blocking scheme he could function like Jamaal Charles. Next year's running back class should be better.
Gonna have to study these backs really good, cause there a lil birdie out there that says were hunting rabbit..
Clive Walford TE watch after this ball game. http://m.palmbeachpost.com/news/spo...anes-tight-end-clive-walford-still-unc/ncTqt/ -- Tight end Clive Walford, who led UM with four catches for 82 yards, said after the game he plans to return for his senior season. He had been contemplating leaving the program for the NFL. “I’m coming back to school. I got to get better, a lot of things have to get better,” Walford said. “My open field moves, downfield blocking also. I’m just very disappointed because we invested a lot into this game.” http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/12/28/3841977/miami-hurricanes-quarterback-stephen.html
Todd, your boy Kapri Bibbs came out early and is entering the Draft. I watched him in that bowl game and came away VERY impressed. For some reason his size came across to me much more than what I'd seen previously.
Thanks Chris. What do you mean by his "size"? Did he look bigger or smaller than you thought? I came away thinking you might be right about him being smaller, but then again I originally felt he was about 5'10. Now I think he looks roughly 5'8 200-205. You? Had a chance to watch Jay Ajayi yet? I'm close to thinking I might like him very much if he's still there in the 3rd... to the point I could see him being a priority. BTW, any word of your man-crush Jamaal Charles 2.0 Gordon declaring?
This might be just me but i'd like to see what Lamar Miller could behind a decent line. Its hard to judge a HB when there isn't a single hole available. I wouldn't be that upset if we draft a HB, but if we are sitting in the 2nd round where we could draft a starting OLman, LB, or Safety I would be upset if we opt for a HB.
Do you know if he related to Vernon Davis and Vontae Davis? They look a lot alike and even sounded similar to Vontae in an interview.
I've been looking at a lot more Morgan Moses because jim1 is so high on him. He's a guy I had looked at before and liked, enough that he's among my favorites, but at the same time I couldn't rank him high because I'd seen problems. Essentially what I think about Morgan Moses is he reminds me of Bryant McKinnie or perhaps King Dunlap. But mostly Bryant McKinnie. He's got this massive frame and he actually gets up out of his stance and can move in that frame. He moves his long arms and uses them well. He dominates people with his size in pass protection, and he's agile enough that he can get low and dive at their legs, or move out on a speed rush and dig his shoulders and strength into the speed rusher preventing them from cutting the corner. With as big as he is and as well as he moves, if you're trying to get past his kick slide and into the pocket, you have a daunting task ahead of you. That said, not an impossible task. Just impossible for many of the smaller and/or less athletic pass rushers at the CFB level. When he's up against bigger guys that are closer to his size and have upper body strength plus the ability to move, he can be in trouble. If he's not just obviously bigger than you and therefore able to engulf and dominate, then the slowness of his feet and overall lack of agility really start to shine. He's susceptible to inside moves, and he can also be beaten around the edge. Forget asking this guy to keep dancing and mirroring with a player, preventing him from getting into a play on a second-chance opportunity or some kind of extended time situation. It's just not going to happen. And also forget asking him to be more of a "I'm big so try and get around me" interference blocker in the run game. He doesn't have the control or agility to go out and find targets, or prevent them from (in textbook fashion) keeping their shoulder in the gap and then shedding him for the tackle. He's a poor run blocker and an even poorer screen blocker. That said, he's got a look to him that makes you think this is a guy that has the basics in terms of the frame and the athletic ability, and all he needs is to polish up his coordination, balance, agility, etc. He's a developmental prospect in that regard. Some offensive line coaches could look at him and think he's got massive potential and they can help him get the rest. Overall I think if you're running a rhythm pass-heavy offense where the integrity of the pocket on the first 3.0 seconds of a play are your chief concern, then by all means you can get this guy and feel good that you've got the position taken care of. It won't be a position of strength, but it should be a player that gets the job done and allows other higher impact players to make their presence felt in the game result. For that reason there's no way I find I could take him in the 1st round. That said, any time after the 1st round and I think it's open season because at that point you're hoping for exactly what I think Morgan Moses could be, which is a dude that comes and does the job for you and allows your higher impact studs to make their presence felt on the game.
I feel the same about McKinnie comparision in pass pro, but think he is more athletic, faster and offers more overall.
He's just younger, so he moves better. Also means he's less technically savvy, and less apt to making the kind of in-game adjustments McKinnie makes.
That's tru, McKinnie is savvy but that comes with exp. I feel Phins should pursue FAs. (Moses is smaller than McKinnie, so the fact that he reminds me of McKinnie gives me pause.)
I like the free agent crop. I'm a big fan of Anthony Collins coming from the Bengals. I also like Rodger Saffold although with Jake Long tearing his ACL they may place a priority on keeping Saffold around. Jared Veldheer is a free agent and it's tough to say what will happen in Oakland with him.
Good write up, some I agree and some I don't. For starters, in reviewing Moses one of the first things that I noticed was that he got to the second level pretty darned well for such a huge guy, and I saw him more than once ride a DE or OLB way out wide, at least once to the sideline. Dude can move for such a huge, powerfull guy. As to run blocking, I don't see where you have a problem there, I look at him as a solid run blocker, good lean and hand punch with athletic upside. He can move the pile and drive his man backward. I watched some more film to try to get a better feel for him and I compared him to Cameron Erving, what would say is this- I like Moses' upside quite a bit at 6-6 330 lbs and I think that he's definitely worth a look at LT in the pros. But- he's so damn big that I would be concerned as per speed rushers, Robert Mathis, et al. I'm also concerned because I repeatedly saw Moses lunging and therefore losing some of his balance, and I wasn't a fan of that. Erving looks more nimble to me, not the power player that I see in Moses, but he's lighter on his feet than the huge Moses. If I'm looking for a straight up LT I would consider the safer pick to be Erving, I really like his feet and he is no small man at around 6-6, 320- Erving looks very athtletic and I like how he moves quite a bit, damn good athlete for such a big man, quick feet, pretty lithe in his movement for a big man. As as to the better Tackle- I'm not sure. I value both LT and RT positions, we saw this year what can happen to an offense when the RT is underperforming- not good. To put it in perspective, I like Moses quite a bit, I like Erving and he is a better fit at LT. But I don't love either as a prospect- that affection would go to Greg Robinson, who is far better than either Moses or Erving, and is in my estimation one of the elite players in the draft. I also liked Menelik Watson better last year than either Moses or Erving. The next FSU OL that I'll be really interested in is Tre Jackson. I've seen Erving rated as a first rounder and Moses as anywhere from a first to a third rounder- if we got Erving in the 1st and Moses in the 2nd rd I'd be fine with that. Moses in the 1st round? I'd be ok with that, relative to what I expect to be available with the 19th pick. I think that Moses would be a solid starter at a position of need for us. I think that for us the value might be in trading down in the 1st round next draft, and I kind of like the idea of picking up Anthony Collins in FA. I liked him back in Kansas, and I keyed on him in the Dolphins game this year- still a fine in pass pro, decent but not great run blocker. Here's some film of Moses against a smaller DE who I like quite a bit for Miami, especially if Jordan goes to OLB- James Gayle: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86bQEkRiaQQ You can see the good and the bad, and also why Moses could struggle against speed rushers in the NFL. Personally I think that Moses should drop 10-15 lbs, especially if he's going to be asked to play LT in the pros. What Moses is, in my opinion, is what you referred to in your last sentence, a "dude that comes and does the job for you and allows your higher impact studs to make their presence felt on the game." I agree, and isn't that what an offensive lineman is supposed to do? That extra second for Tannehill in pass pro, that extra foot of pass blocking for Miller- those are things that we desperately need, things that good offensive linemen are supposed to do, and things that I think Moses can do for us.
If Texas running back Malcolm Brown declares, he might go on my target list. The ex 5 star recruit has added some nice thickness since last year and runs with some pop, like a slightly smaller Eddie Lacy.
Texas players are getting undervalued lately because the staff here has been doing a really bad job of coaching up these recruits. Some real potential in kids like Brown that have been hidden. One of the big reasons Mack and Co. are leaving town.
Thanks for the heads up! There's some stuff to like there, imo. His size and attitude is great, downhill aggression. I just wish he did more between the tackles at UT. It's hard to get a feel for some of these RBs because their offenses rarely ask them to take a traditional handoff and pick their way inside to the second level with patience and lateral quickness. He looks great taking it off-tackle, but I wish there was more tape of him consistently doing the dirty work inside for the tough yards, making a LB miss 1-on-1 in the hole, things like that. With his size and ability to take on contact, you'd think he could be consistently effective inside; I just wish we saw more opportunities for him to exhibit patience at the LOS, good decisions in traffic, the quickness necessary in the NFL to make those fast choices, dropping his pads to drive with his legs, things like that. I like how he gets outside, squares his shoulders and takes no prisoners though. To go with that straight-line speed, he has a little wiggle on the edge too, which I like. I see the Eddie Lacy comparison, but I wasn't too big on Lacy because I think the way he runs is going to get him hurt a lot. Brown's tendencies and decisions remind me of Le'Veon Bell a little, but I think Brown has a little more speed and bowling ball to him, finishes with more violence. Something to be said for him being productive as the workhorse too. Probably going to need a thread just for RBs at some point. This class lost a little luster with Gordon staying in school, imo, but we certainly have a big need in the backfield. Tough to sort through all these spread/pistol offenses for a pro-style back.
I share your concern with speed at the next level but it's more about speed on guys that are also NFL size and have NFL strength. I've seen him obliterate speed on guys that are a bit lightweight, because his frame and power advantages are too much for them to use their speed right. I've never seen the Gayle matchup but that would be one I would predict he struggle with, based on what I saw versus Clemson, Pitt and Oregon. I'll have to take a look at him versus Gayle later. As for getting to the second level, I think I need to clarify maybe. He gets there. But he doesn't get there soon enough to make the blocks he needs to make, and he also comes in hot which means he doesn't have control and is essentially ineffective. It's not at all a strength for him, nor is run blocking in general. He's an interference blocker, and that's actually pretty effective sometimes because his frame is such that just getting in the way gets the job done at times. Cam Erving is a much more controlled player with better balance, but without quite the same bestial frame. My concern about Erving is also similar to Moses...slow feet. Doesn't keep the feet moving, then ends up bending at the waist to make up for the fact that his base is not moving as it should. That allows him to get beaten. He had an awful game against Florida and I've seen him struggle against others who get the outside on him. Here's a tip. Count a player's steps from snap to whistle and divide by the total time. I find it instructive. Compare a Cam Erving that way to a Taylor Lewan or Billy Turner.
