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Double Coverage: Jets at Dolphins

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by xphinfanx, Dec 26, 2013.

  1. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    http://espn.go.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/4147/double-coverage-jets-at-dolphins



    Joy! Might be just enough for this forum to have another 12 months of #%&@hing. Anyway one last game of regular season.


    Edit : Cimini is a writer for the Jets New York Daily News.
     
  2. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    Want Rex something to think about.
    Jets at Dolphins:
    Stat of the Week
    3-6
    Jets head coach Rex Ryan is 3-6 all-time against the Dolphins.
     
  3. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That's a good stat.
     
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  4. Fame

    Fame Well-Known Member

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    I think ireland and philbin should both be fired...but I hate the jets and rex ryan so much that I would gladly take another year of Ireland to see them lose.
     
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  5. WhiteIbanez

    WhiteIbanez Megamediocremaniacal

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    So if it wasn't the Jets you would be happy losing and missing the playoffs just so they get fired?
    That is dreadful fan logic.
     
  6. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    Im assuming thats not what he meant.
    I am one of the biggest Ireland detractors on this board and even I would take another year of him if it means making the playoffs.
     
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  7. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    My instinct still says that Miami loses this game.

    That goes directly against a standing expectation of 9-7 that I have had since around Week 4 of the season, and it means I have to adjust my expectations back down to 8-8 which is a shame because my original expectation was 8-8 and I only adjusted up to 9-7 because of the three game win streak. It's a good teaching moment about trusting your instincts and not letting short term trends dictate reactions. Or maybe I'm wrong and they go 9-7 after all. Who knows.

    I just think that the Jets are an emotion-fueled team. They always have been since Rex Ryan took over.

    When we played the first time the team was at a low, two straight bad losses after the bye week. They were certainly at a passing efficiency trough with everyone speculating that Geno Smith would be pulled from the lineup any minute. Indeed, he was pulled from the Dolphins game at halftime.

    They're in a different place now. They've won two of the last three and made things interesting against a very good Carolina Panthers team (as did we). They re-committed to Geno Smith and there's no danger whatsoever of him being pulled from the game for any reason, and he's paying back the commitment with more confident play. You can see it on the film.

    Separately but concurrently, Rex Ryan pulled out the "word on the street is I'm being fired" speech with the team before the Cleveland game. That's not a cord you get to pull very often, obviously...but he pulled it.

    Probably even more important was how the team responded to it. I'm not just talking about the fact that they won, or what the score was or whatever. I'm talking about the ground swell of individual player performances plugging into the whole team performance.

    Let's get the rubber onto the road with that. If you take the PFF ratings of every player on offense for a game and add them up you get a summed up rating that really just reflects how often the players on the unit were making good efforts or bad efforts. Do the same on defense and you've got the same thing. Add them up and you've got a fair proxy for how well the individual players on the team were playing, ex-special teams.

    The best the Jets players ever performed prior to the Cleveland game was a +6.7, which is really very unimpressive. To compare and contrast that with Miami, we've gotten into double-digit positive territory 5 times this year. But against the Cleveland Browns the Jets summed up to a +22.8 PFF overall rating, and they translated that into a victory on the scoreboard as well.

    What that tells me is the individual players on the Jets swelled up in ranks and responded individually to Rex Ryan's message. They literally played their very best game of the year this last week, whereas Miami literally played their very worst game of the year this last week (which is reflected stunningly in the PFF rating sums).

    Add to that the usual suspects as far as motivation goes (revenge for Miami's handing them an embarrassing home loss, the chance to deal a bitter rival a playoff killing blow) and I think you've got a recipe for the Jets coming out and playing with extreme motivation while simultaneously playing like they've got nothing to lose.

    The other side of that is Miami, who has everything to lose. That's the thing we don't know yet about a Joe Philbin team. How are they going to respond when they have everything on the line? This is literally win-or-go-home territory.

    I was impressed with how Miami handled the Patriots game...but I think part of that was all about proving that they're good enough to beat them. The playoff implications were relatively minor. They weren't in "win-or-go-home" territory. I think that became less about the playoffs and more about the Patriots, who had beaten the Dolphins the first time around.

    What was particularly unimpressive was how the team responded when the playoffs really did inch a whole lot closer in Week 16. It was BY FAR the team's worst performance of the year. Far and away, not even close. They had the weight of the playoffs on their shoulders and they buckled.

    That's a pretty weighty data point. How they respond this week I think will tell us a lot about what a Joe Philbin team is really about in a high pressure situation where they have everything to lose.

    Now when it comes to the specifics about how the Jets could beat us...I think it comes to the same formula that the Bills used. What that means is stopping the run, running the football, playing VERY physical in coverage, and executing smartly in the passing game.

    The first time we played the Jets, we were able to run the football against their defensive front. That defensive front has obliterated running games all year though, and that seems a little aberrant to me. The Jets will key on that a little more.

    What wasn't aberrant is the fact that Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell were doing well against our run defense. Everyone knows that our run defense has been severely impacted by the linebacker swap this off season and can't be trusted at all.

    But the first time around the Jets passing efficiency was at absolute trough levels. Geno Smith's confidence was shot. He had terrible performances against the Bills and Ravens and everyone thought he was going to be pulled against the Dolphins. And he was. That left Matt Simms to go in without having prepped for being the starter and he played about what you'd expect.

    Since then Geno Smith is 51 of 89 for 590 yards, 4 TDs and 2 INTs, with 5 sacks, with an additional 18 runs for 143 yards and 2 TDs.

    Again, where does the rubber meet the road here? Why is Geno more comfortable? A couple of reasons.

    For starters he's playing with more confidence now that the Jets don't have anything on the line playoff-wise and the coaches have decided that Geno is going to be the guy for better or worse for the good of the team's future. There's been no danger of his being benched, ever since they lost to Miami and made the decision that Geno should start the Raiders game even after being benched at halftime agianst the Dolphins.

    Second, they're running Geno Smith more often. They're getting him athletically involved in the game. Geno Smith only ran 36 times in the first 12 games and has run 18 times in the last 3 games.

    It's not scrambling tendency. Geno Smith scrambled 20 times in the first 12 games and 6 times in the last 3 games, which is about the same scrambling tendency.

    It's the amount of read-option and other runs they're calling for Geno Smith to execute right out of the huddle. Those have increased and he's playing better as a result.

    How about an obvious reason? Santonio Holmes has come back healthy in the last three games after missing the Miami game and still being hurt in the previous two games after the bye week. Or how about David Nelson being moved to RWR to directly replace Stephen Hill who has not played in the last three games? It's not necessarily the talent difference, but rather how the play calling has to change when you have a David Nelson over there instead of a Stephen Hill who is more of just a straight up vertical guy.

    Finally there's the coverage. What I saw against the Buffalo Bills was a secondary that went into the game wanting to physically manhandle our receivers. And while Mike Wallace continued to play well through the physical effort because his speed is such that it dictates defenses can't really do that all the way against him, it looked to me like Brian Hartline absolutely WILTED under all that pressure and physicality. The man had by far the worst game of his season. They were physical on him and made him look like a helpless kitten. Rishard Matthews a little of the same. He's still not proven when things get very physical and you've got a guy that can get in his face and keep up with him. Nickell Robey dominated him.

    I see the Jets trying their hardest to repeat that effort. I think they're going to be enthused when they see the film of what Buffalo did to Miami's passing game by being so physical. And Rex Ryan is the kind of guy that can whip them up that way because I think his tendency is to ask players to play very physical in coverage.

    I think what Rex will have to worry about in this Miami game is really his players playing out of control and getting penalties that help Miami win the game. They're going to play a little reckless like they have nothing to lose.

    All that said...obviously Miami is favored to win this game in Las Vegas (-6.0) and that could prove very well founded. I think the point about Rex Ryan being 3-6 all time against Miami is a good one. Miami is and has been a better team than the New York Jets. Even if that wasn't the case in Week 16 it was clearly the case in Weeks 1 thru 15. The Jets have generally traveled very poorly this year whereas Miami is about the same at home as they are on the road.
     
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  8. finwin

    finwin Active Member

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    I don't have a prediction for what their season record was and I don't think anyone gives a rats a$$ about CKP's 9-7 or 8-8 prediction. The only prediction that mattered was the 7 1/2 game over under betting line that Vegas had at the beginning of the season so the betters have won. As for the motivation factor, I believe focus and the game plan will trump the motivation factor especially on offense. The D has mostly done their jobs this year but the 24th ranked offense needs a vast improvement in the coming game/s if they are to win.
     
  9. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Line has moved to Miami -5.5. Wonder how far it goes :jt0323:
     
  10. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    I don't buy into the whole jets being motivated by rexs getting fired speech. Our team will be just as motivated if not more, with the implications in mind.. and this is in a home game. . Against a team we embarrassed in their own house. Now they support geno? Lol doubt it. And even if they do.. it wont last long.. next bad game he has its back under the bus. Im not worried about this jets team. Rex can talk to buffalos coaches all he wants, which is how its being reported.
     
  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think someone predicted right away in our discussions that it will go from -6.5 down to about -4.5.

    That seems the pace it's on, especially if a lot of sharp money starts going in on Saturday.

    You can still get +6.0 on Bovada.
     
  12. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Yeah, I said it would go down to 4.5. I'd be shocked if it goes any lower though.
     
  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The initial line was set at -6.5 so yeah, it moving from -6.5 down to -1 or something like that without there being a big injury development would be indicative that someone in the oddsmaking department may be up for review.
     
  14. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    I think Miami will win, but not get the help we need to get into the playoffs and totally bum the f--k out of me.
     
  15. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    Possible but highly unlikely IMO. I don't see the Ravens beating the Bengals at Cincinnati AND Chargers losing at home to the Chief's backups, something has got to give.
     
  16. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    I seriously hope you are right. :)
     
  17. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    I would be more shocked this week if the Phins lose than last weeks meltdown.
    The Jets suck worse than we do.
     
  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't know whether this helps or hurts the team. Steve Ross was in town today and addressed the team.

    Also, for some reason the players practiced today even though they haven't practiced on Thursdays all year.

    That...strikes me as odd.
     
  19. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Antonio Cromartie: "This is our last game. We want to make sure it's their last game, too."
     
  20. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    They got Christmas Day off, so they practiced today, not odd at all.
     
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  21. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Ah ok.
     
  22. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    Again...you say this because they lost to Buffalo. Had they won 6-3 and had 30 yards of offense..and managed to look even worse..you would be predicting a beatdown and a playoff berth. You are doing the opposite of what you said you woulds not do.


    As for Home and Away...they are obviously better at home, because their most important player (Tannehill) is MUCH better at home.

    The Jets are putrid, and I expect a double digit win. Anything other than that is actually a disappointment and failure to meet expectations.
     
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  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That is actually patently false.

    We'll see.
     
  24. ElNino

    ElNino Well-Known Member

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    Notice he mentioned "important 3rd year" for Philbin. I agree, no matter if the phins get in the playoffs, give Philbin a third year. If we're 8-8 again next year, there's the door. But let's let a plan come to fruition, lest we quit a year before the miracle happens. I'm talking COACH here. Ireland, who i tended to defend this year....i could see getting rid of him now as long as a total house cleaning is not expected with a new GM.
     
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  25. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    I think you are doing a reverse jinx. I am telling you it's not necessary. This game is a gimme, and if they lose, they should fire everybody in that building, because it might be the worst regular season loss in Dolphins history (taking into account stakes, opponent, numbers and expectations)

    and...no..we'll see nothing. His numbers in his 2 year career say he is infinitely much better at home than away.
     
  26. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    btw..numbers wise (Off., Def. Eff. and Pt. Diff.) this WOULD BE the worst Loss in Dolphins history in a "clinching" game.

    Researching this..I was astounded to see how good that Vikings offense was when we blew the first of our back to back debacle in 2002. That game was also on the road.

    These are the facts: This is the "easiest" game the Dolphins have EVER had in a "win and in" scenario. (I know it is technically not "win and in".)
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    We'll see.
     
  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I'm really not trying to reverse jinx the Dolphins.

    Everything I've already written is exactly why I think the Dolphins are more likely to lose this game than win it. You're just not listening to it.
     
  29. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    In other words..you think the most catastrophic loss in Dolphins Regular season history is coming on Sunday?
     
  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The most catastrophic loss in Dolphins regular season history as per your perception, yes.

    Not mine.
     
  31. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    No..I read it...I don;t agree with those numbers.

    Team PS # say that the Jets have had 3 negative (-100) outings in the last 5 weeks. The Dolphins have had 3 all year. The strength of the Jets team is their defense and more noticeably their defensive line. Both have regressed steadily with a slight uptick in the Browns game. The "uptick" was so slight that it did not qualify for the 5th best performance by the DOLPHINS defense this year.

    It "looks" like they are playing "harder" for Rex Ryan now...problem is they aren't. They are doing Exactly what they have done all year. They follow mediocre performances with putrid ones in bunches. They are exactly what you would expect from a 4-12 team that over-achieved.
     
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  32. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Alls I know is that the 2002 back-to-back losses versus New England and the Vikings were the lowest I've ever been as a Dolphin fan. Let's not do that again.
     
  33. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    To be honest....losing to the Jets would be the worst loss in our franchises history, IMO.

    This team is so close to hemorrhaging the last real blood of its fan base, its not even funny. Any hope anyone had in this team and its owner hangs by a thread. A win even if they dont get into the playoffs, means a winning season, and a sign things are moving forwards. A loss....to back to back division rivals....to boot us out of the playoffs? Yeh....please tell me how this wouldnt be the worst loss in franchise history. We have to win this game. HAVE TO. Is not even a matter if we will. The players need to know this. Yeh...maybe the Jets are playing to keep their coach. Maybe they arent. The Phins are playing to keep their franchise meaningful. This would crush...CRUSH..the fans spirits.
     
  34. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would have to agree with you that this loss would be crushing. Even worse for me because. I live in N.Y and hate the Jets. To have to live with a loss to end our season by the team I despise.....can't even think about it. Would it be the worst ever in our History? Hard to quantify but...would be high on the list. So many to choose from, do not even want to place a specific order on heartbreak. At this point, I don't know if I am looking forward to Sunday or dreading it..lol
     
  35. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That's fine. But I'm not writing it in order to reverse jinx the Dolphins nor am I writing it solely because of the Bills loss, which I've explained multiple times and for some reason you just go on ignoring what I say.

    If you want to say they're playing "better" instead of "harder" that's fine with me. But the fact of the matter is they had a great full team win complete with a swell of good individual player performances against the Browns. It was the team's most complete victory of the year, really. It came a week before they play us, on the same week the Dolphins played the worst game they've played all year.

    One of the things that worries me is it was the offense that had the biggest swell of good performance and it continued a recent trend that coincided with some changes made schematically at the quarterback level along with some personnel changes made at the receiver level.

    The Jets defense, we know they're going to be tough. The best hope of Miami to win is to keep the Jets offense in the sh-tter, as it's been for much of the year as they deal with poor quarterback play. If the Jets offense comes alive the way Buffalo's did there's no reason the defense can't do the same to us as the Bills did last week.

    Hopefully the Dolphins offensive players won't look pathetic in the face of the increased physicality and energy, like they did against Buffalo.
     
  36. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    We arent losing. We are 100% going to win this game, because losing is not an option. This team simply can not lose on Sunday. They know this...and I believe in this team. We are going to win.
     
  37. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think the back to back losses to the Bills and Jets together would be considered one of the worst and most disappointing two-game stretches in team history.

    But let's keep something in mind. For 30 damn years Miami had a good team that usually came through for us, especially in those situations. MOST of the time when that was not happening, Miami has had sh-tty teams that never had the luxury of an opportunity to disappoint the fans with a poor finish in a clutch Week 17 situation.

    So don't talk to me about Miami's TEAM history which includes a bunch of stuff that happened so long ago to where the coaching staffs, players, stadium and even fan base look completely dissimilar. Talk to me about league trends and how often such situations are blown on a league wide basis...because I do see that happening on a league wide basis.

    Also, let's not pretend that dropping two straight at 8-6 to finish the season 8-8 and out of the playoff race would be sooooooo very different from 2009 when we were 7-6 and dropped three straight to finish 7-9, or when we repeated that feat in 2010. And those were teams that were architected by the same GM and include players that are still on the team today.
     
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  38. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I love your enthusiasm and optimism..I do. Could the Phins really afford to lose last week?, Did they not know this last week? Was losing an option last week? I believed last week, and that faith was rewarded with one of the worst performances I have seen in 30 yrs....30 yrs!!!
     
  39. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Vegas still has us at about a 6 point fav.

    Vegas is smarter than anyone on this board X2. We may not win, but it would be a pretty significant upset if we don't.
     
  40. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    Yes. That's the point. It was their most complete victory of the year, and it wasn't all that impressive statistically, in context with what they have done all year. I don;t see why the Jets sample size has to be "one" and ours has to be as well. What they have done all year matters. if you must narrow it down..let's just take the last 3 games.

    Here we go..the magical 3 game run that proves that the Jets are a Juggernaut:

    Team score of +122.10 vs. the Raiders...great!
    Team Score of -130.54 vs. Panthers...Putrid
    Team score of +121.64 vs. Browns...great!

    Now..let's do an overall Team PS# for each team, last 3 games:

    Dolphins, Def: -13.3
    Dolphins, Off: -1.08
    Dolphins, Team: -5.45 Adj. (+14.55)

    Jets, Def: -4.02
    Jets, Off: +29.5
    Jets, Team: +13.45 Adj. (+3.15)

    Hey! Jets played better than Dolphins in the last 3 games! Wait. Adjust for opponents. Look at the 2nd number (bolded)

    Well...just a fact that Pitt, NE and Buff are far better than the Raiders, Panthers and Browns. It's why context is important.

    Basically..their 3 game uptick was the worst 2-1 stretch for any team all season. They are no better. They just caught their schedule.
     
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