1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

What's your gut say.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by djphinfan, Dec 23, 2013.

  1. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Wet cold and windy...**** that it sucks

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
     
  2. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

    10,191
    4,187
    113
    Dec 3, 2007
    Bradenton,FL


    Ok. Maybe I don't know the difference.

    Either way you guys continue to blame the weather on our pathetic showing, while the rest of the league rolls on through such weather.
     
  3. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Actually my gut is telling me that Miami loses this Jets game. I could be wrong. I hope I'm wrong. I was wrong about the Bills game. I thought ultimately Miami would go out there and win it. I was wrong about that.

    But I'm going to bring up three points I haven't seen talked about.

    1. Ryan Tannehill is hurt. It won't keep him out of the game, but he's hurting. Re-discovering his legs has been a BIG part of the equation in Miami's turnaround, IMO. He ran 12 times for 136 yards during the 5 games prior to the Bills game, in which the team piled up a 4-1 record. He also scrambled away from pressure more in order to throw passes. We theorize that he's seen pressure from above to stay in the pocket. To some degree that relented and it helped turn Miami into a winning team. Now he's got a bad knee. I won't say anymore than that. He's going to get pressured from above to stay in the pocket so that he doesn't hurt the knee worse. It's going to affect his decision-making. You probably won't see any read-option plays called, either. Those plays actually hurt defenses over the 5 games prior to the Bills game.

    2. Rex Ryan pulled the "they're firing me" card on his team in a meeting the night before the Cleveland game, and his team responded. They soundly beat the Browns, 24-13. The defense dominated with 5 sacks, 3 hits and 17 pressures. And that was a good OL they did that against. Ryan essentially asked the team if they would play for him, since this was going to be his last pair of games. The scoreboard tells us what the team's answer was. It was a yes. As if that's not bad enough, the Dolphins EMBARRASSED the Jets the last time they played...up in New York city. That game was an embarrassment. Any Rex Ryan team is going to be an emotion-fueled team. So now they're playing for a head coach they love that they think will be fired, against a hated rival that embarrassed them in their own house a few weeks ago, on the road in a stadium that will be packed with almost as many Jet fans as Dolphins fans, in front of a Dolphins fan base that will potentially be deflated by this week's loss against the Bills. That's a bad recipe against a Rex Ryan team which, as I said tends to be a very emotion-fueled team.

    3. There's the history repeating itself thing. This season has been marked thus far by two 3-game win streaks. In both win streaks, the team's margin of victory was diminishing. Both win streaks really did look very similar. And both came to an end when the team got dominated in embarrassing fashion. The first time around, the team rattled off three more losses after that embarrassing performance. I think there's a strong possibility that by next week, the team has not recovered from this performance.

    Now, as a counterpoint to my reasons why my gut is telling me the Dolphins lose, there's this:

    Jets on the road.

    That's been a bad recipe all year for that team. The team is 1-6 on the road. They will really need to buck trend in order to make this upset happen.

    But overall if I'm the San Diego Chargers, I feel like I've got a fighting chance in this thing. The teams they need to lose have ailing QBs and both just got embarrassed in Week 16.
     
    Bpk and KB21 like this.
  4. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

    1,318
    638
    113
    Oct 22, 2013
    So CAL
    I love when people blame the cold, how can a back up qb come in and have 50% of the total number of yard by a whole team? don't back up qb just sit in the cold the whole time? granted he did throw two picks but thats just from not playing on the first team. I blame tannehills poor play reading and inability to look at multiple receivers. I blame Sherman for his horrible play calls and i blame philbin for being a down right idiot. Every team in the country puts the blame on the qb and dolphins fans love to blame the hot dog man or something just put the blame where blame needs to be, tannehill is an avg to under avg qb. his innability to throw the deep ball will have him sitting backing up in a couple years just like everyone thought pennington and henne where the answers, guess what Tannehill isnt either. Why is mattt moore coming in barking audibles and line changes, when i have only seen tannehill do this a couple times, i didn't see matt moore have to struggle not to get sacked except for the play where the bad snap happened. Id rather see matt moore take snaps he can make more throws than tannehill and he has miles and miles of heart, and yet tannehill stood there 20 times with guys in his face, and goes into the fetal position anytime someone is near, your telling me a qb that 6'6 220 runs a 4.6 can move out of the way from a cb that weighs about 180? or he cant run away from a 340lbs lineman hes inexperienced he cant make NFL throws and Sherman knows this which is why they run the west coast offense well a version of it. 5 yard stop routes and out routes are not going to get you anywhere and if by week 16 you haven't seen this then just give up and lose against the jets so you can just kill all hopes so i don't have to endear another week of this bs.

    Point taken if your gonna SH!T down your leg don't even go 8/8 get better draft picks. but if you have to show what your made of and you go and get shut out by the last place team in the east then i think there's something wrong and you shouldn't make the playoffs.

    whole coaching staff should be fired including the 15 yr old qb coach, i think a new QB should be drafted in what could be a qb rich draft, i think the O-line is avg as well could make moves on that front, or get a new lineman's coach, the defense is ok and will be alot better when the offense can get a few first downs and keep them off the field for awhile.

    IN ALL ITS JUST ANOTHER MIAMI TEAM THAT'S OK W MEDIOCRITY AND ANOTHER YEAR I HAVE TO SIT AND WATCH PEOPLE BE OK WITH MEDEOCRITY
     
    TooGoodForDez likes this.
  5. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

    47,525
    72,483
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Miami, Florida
    you're wrong. That Jets team is horrific and they will revert to being horrific ..right on schedule. it is what they do.

    Part of your "gut" telling you that they will lose is that you just saw them lose. Had they won..your gut would be telling you something completely different.

    They will win. They will make the playoffs. They will be competitive in their 1st round game. and I would bet on it.
     
    the 23rd and BigDogsHunt like this.
  6. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Not blaming it..just saying it had a significant impact. When your cold and wet..and its windy..you start this thinking about being cold and wet and how much it sucks. It creates a dull mind...and saps your will. Had we started fast...adrenaline probably would have carried us.

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
     
  7. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

    3,840
    636
    0
    Feb 26, 2013
     
  8. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

    47,525
    72,483
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Miami, Florida
     
    BigDogsHunt likes this.
  9. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    And we have to listen to no sensical gibberish...of which you can hardly understand through all the blathering. We are even.

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
     
  10. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

    10,191
    4,187
    113
    Dec 3, 2007
    Bradenton,FL

    That's blaming it.
     
  11. Finrunner

    Finrunner Season Ticket Holder

    2,385
    1,117
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    This game was our egg. My confidence had been surging that maybe we wouldn't have "that" game this year. Yeah, we lost to Buffalo before and we lost to winless Tampa, but neither of those games, imo, was laying an egg. Laying an egg is what we did against Tennessee last year at home. This year, it was yesterday. And it sort of makes sense. I made the same point before the game that Section made above -- Buffalo's strengths are our weaknesses this year. Strong rushing game versus so-so (at best) run defense, and, more importantly, strong pass rush at all parts of the line and LBs versus a leaky OL that can't really run block, either, especially on the road. Add to that, coming off the high of beating New England. Then, the elements (and really, we went 1-1 this year in cold weather games, which for the Dolphins, all things considered, is better than usual). And then having an alarm pulled in their hotel at 2:00 a.m. the night before the game. Even though we had it all in front of us, destiny in our hands, we're not that good a team yet that we're incapable of laying that egg. And yesterday, we did.

    To my gut, it doesn't change much about the team. We're still a flawed team, with a reasonable decent coaching staff, a QB on the rise, a good but not great WR corps, an atrocious OL, below average running backs, and a good but not stand-out defense. Really, that puts us in line with a lot of teams in the NFL. Just in the AFC, Kansas City (who benefitted from a soft schedule), San Diego, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and even division winners Cincy and Indy aren't much different, nor are the Jets and Buffalo. If the ball bounces the right way, we're playoff caliber, but we're not far from 7-9, either.

    All season long, the OL has been an Achilles heel. That part of the team has to be remedied. We also need better LBs, and we could use a stud running back. Yesterday was deflating because all Dolphins fans knew that the team controlled their own destiny, and if they won out and finished 10-6, then the idea that we had turned the corner would be prominent. Most fans would be thinking make a couple of adjustments, and we're championship contenders next year. Well, that's still not out of the realm of possibility, but the likelihood is that, playoffs or not, we're better than last year, but only marginally better. We took a step forward, but not two or three steps. Hopefully, we can take more steps next year. I'm kind of on the fence with the coaching staff, and I'm definitely not sold on Ireland. I'm still of the thinking that it's probably time for the team to cut the umbilical between Sherman and Tannehill for the betterment of our young QB's future. A really good QB coach might work wonders as well.

    The thing is, the playoffs would be fun for fans, and it would give the team, but specifically Ryan Tannehill, experience when teams turn it up to their highest level each week. That could be useful down the road. I don't know that our OL has a notch they can turn up, so I don't think we'll be a huge factor in the playoffs -- and the best teams will take advantage of that -- but I do think our defense could - and I, for one, would like to see it.
     
  12. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

    22,422
    9,819
    0
    Nov 27, 2007
    DC Metro Area
    true dat!
     
  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Yesterday was an important data point. As are they all. And it's not just about what the Dolphins did yesterday. A lot of my explanation in fact focused on what the JETS did as well. That's key.

    You say the Bills had the recipe to beat Miami in the ways that Miami is vulnerable. I'm not sure I get why the Jets don't have that ability. They just whooped the hell out of a much, much better pass protecting OL than ours yesterday. Muhammad Wilkerson is one of the best DLs Miami will have faced all year. Quinton Coples and Sheldon Richardson are more than capable. Calvin Pace has 11 sacks this year.

    And for some reason the Jets run game doesn't get respect from you even though Chris Ivory has averaged 4.9 YPC and 78 yards per game ever since his coming out part in Week 7. Together he and Bilal Powell average 107 yards per game on the ground over those 9 games, behind an offensive line that is leagues better than our own.
     
  14. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    To counter point though CK..hadn't the Jets just stomped Cincinnati..before getting blown out by us at home? This at a time..when they had also beat the Saints and the Pats at home?

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
     
  15. Eop05

    Eop05 Junior Member Club Member

    5,659
    5,268
    113
    Dec 8, 2007
    NJ
    I could be wrong, but I think Cincinnati embarrassed the Jets
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    When the Dolphins played the Jets in Week 13, the Jets had just dropped two straight losses after their bye week...to the Bills and to the Ravens. Both were real bad losses, too. They lost to the Bills 37-14, and lost to the Ravens 19-3. Then they bucked a trend by playing terribly at home, whereas they'd been good at home previously.

    After that loss to the Dolphins they turned around and soundly beat the Raiders and then were beat by the Panthers 30-20 in an interesting finish that featured a pick-6 during a comeback attempt. Then they soundly beat the Browns.

    Emotionally, I wouldn't say the Jets are in near the same place in Week 17 as they were Week 13.
     
  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    They did. It was bad, 49-9. That was Week 8.
     
  18. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    Miami is -6.5 against the Jets right now. Obviously they could lose, but looking very unlikely right now.
     
  19. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Last game of the season...playoffs on the line...*** kicked in Buffalo....I think we will match their intensity.

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
     
  20. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    12,162
    5,057
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    When I heard cold and rain, I already thought that's advantage Bills, they have a much better running game than the Dolphins, if we were going to a ground and pound game, Bills are going to win.
     
  21. Finrunner

    Finrunner Season Ticket Holder

    2,385
    1,117
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    Right. We laid our egg. There's only one of those. We'll be up for this one. Last home game!
     
  22. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

    47,525
    72,483
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Miami, Florida
    Clean playing conditions make a huge difference as well. if that game vs. Buffalo were in Toronto in a dome, Dolphins look competent and probably win a field goal fest (I had doubts about that game regardless).

    I truly believe that the jets are a Terrible team that has vastly overachieved (the numbers/metrics back me up) and Buffalo is a team that has vastly under-achieved with massive advantages against our weaknesses.

    The Jets were made for us.
     
  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    I'm comfortable with that. I think Vegas is particularly week in special situations, which includes Preseason (especially Week 1 and Week 4), Regular Season Week 1, Regular Season Week 2 and Regular Season Week 17.
     
  24. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Ain't scaret of dem Jets. Come get yer *** whuppin NY

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
     
  25. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    I don't believe Miami fell due to conditions at all. Look at the body language of both teams. The Bills were just much more physical and much more energetic than Miami.

    I just don't see how the Bills could be built to beat us but the Jets are not. The Jets also have a strong OL and ground game. They also have a strong defensive front and pass rush. Both defenses stop the run. Both teams had questionable QB play.
     
  26. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    Thats true. But I do find it encouraging considering that Vegas pretty much told everyone the Bills would beat Miami yesterday.
     
  27. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

    47,525
    72,483
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Miami, Florida
    and as for Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory... Both are one cut leverage runners. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller are MUCH better vision runners than those two.

    I trust Solai and Starks to whip their guys at least 70% of the time..thus ...run game for Jets gone....vs. the Bills..they can whip their guys and get defeated by crafty running from Spiller and Jackson.

    IMO, there are two potential SUPERSTAR runningbacks that their team's don't really exploit....1st of all..Pierre Thomas....2nd..Fred Jackson.

    Ivory and Powell are from the scrap heap.
     
  28. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

    47,525
    72,483
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Miami, Florida
    their talent is different. starting with the RB's...but their schemes as well make a huge part of the reasons why they are so different.
     
  29. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Sooo...why did we trounce them earlier in the year?

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
     
  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    They had Miami as 3 point favorites, did they not?
     
  31. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

    47,525
    72,483
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Miami, Florida
    want to know where I stand any given week...check my "volume". I was awfully quiet this past week, I was a bit uneasy about that game.....I was talking **** all of Pats week....

    I am BACK to talking **** once again. They beat the Jets by 2 TD's.
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Their QB play was at trough levels.
     
  33. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    5,820
    4,665
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    I heard it went to Buffalo -1 on Sunday morning. Can anyone confirm?
     
  34. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    And that world beating defense?

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
     
  35. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

    47,525
    72,483
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Miami, Florida
    and again...Team PS...

    Bills 8th on defense...26th on Offense..team rank 22nd...

    Jets 22nd on Defense...31st on Offense...their Team rank is 29th!

    You put those numbers up against us...the Bills are a stone throw away from us...the Jets are in another realm.

    The Bills really are not that bad. They are damn near us...Perfectly mediocre.
     
  36. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    3 point favorite which dropped to 1 point favorites at kickoff. And the line moved that way despite the majority of the public betting on Miami. As soon as I saw that, I knew Miami was in trouble.
     
  37. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    The spreads currently suggest Miami's odds of going to the playoffs are about 69%.
     
  38. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    I have the closing line at a Buffalo Pick.

    But that's not Las Vegas. That's the bettors. Vegas had the odds above 3 points in favor of Buffalo and it were the bettors that forced Vegas downward to a Pick.
     
  39. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

    47,525
    72,483
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Miami, Florida
    a little less..but still a Heavy favorite...

    62.9%

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html
     
  40. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

    3,840
    636
    0
    Feb 26, 2013
    I don't have a gut feeling. I have the eye test, and facts after the game. My eye test tells me, Phins need a QB and WRs and RBs--better players. Results are what they are. Bottom line, need a new GM and better football people in the building.
     

Share This Page