One of the first surprises for me when doing stats during this draft season comes courtesy of Johnny Manziel. I know people tend to have pretty strong reactions to anything regarding him, but the numbers are interesting. My aggregate score for QBs has been pretty predictable so far, Bridgewater #1, Bortles #2, etc - but the stats work out great for Manziel and his QB aggregate score comes out to 72.92 which is just slightly behind Bridgewater's at 73.61 and is about 3 points ahead of the next highest QB. I remember Daniel Jeremiah from NFL Network asking some NFL GMs which college QB they'd want in the clutch in college and they all responded Manziel. Well that certainly bears out in the numbers, his completion percentage on 3rd down and red zone comp % are 1st and 2nd in the class respectively. While I'm still working out the flaws, his amount of throws past the sticks on third down is way higher than the other QBs. I've given up on charting throws into double coverage because it's just one too many things for me to look at, but Manziel's passes defensed is extremely low (lowest in the class). However I bet if you kept a log on double coverage, it'd be higher than most of the other QBs - most of his INTs came on throws into double or triple coverage. The biggest knock in the stats is what I've deemed "decision making", mostly that his completion percentage under pressure is just average (58%) and his completion percentage against the blitz is second lowest in the class (66%) Most interesting to me - his intermediate (11-20 yards) and deep (20+ yards) are pretty much at the top of the class. Completing 69% of his passes in the important intermediate zone, he edges out Bridgewater (67%) and on 20+ yard throws he completed 54.4% of his passes which is only slightly behind class leader Bortles at 55.5%. There are obviously frustrating things about him. I can't tell you how many times I yelled THROW THE GODDAMN BALL while watching him and I think he creates unnecessary pressure with his impatience in the pocket. In addition, he rolled out more than any other QB on 18% of all attempts (Bridgewater's the next highest at 16%, most average ~11%). But damn if he doesn't just get it done.
I think this is the one guy where the numbers do not tell the entire story. Too often, he is simply running around in the backfield only to heave it up and have that monster Mike Evans out jump someone for the ball. The numbers are interesting though, and it makes me want to take a look at him in just pure passing situations.
I agree with this. I don't like his vision from inside the pocket. I don't think he has any vision back there, to be honest. I honestly think he goes into a very high percentage of snaps with no intention of throwing the football from the pocket. His intention from the start is to buy a really long amount of time so that his receivers can get open, and then he can get out of the pocket, get clear vision, and deliver the football to them. That's what I think he's doing, especially when he's pressed and feeling the pressure of the moment, pressure from the scoreboard, and/or pressure from the situation. I think we're seeing with RG3 that doesn't necessarily work in the NFL in the long term. I know that Russell Wilson is going to be held up as an example of why he should go high. I just think there are so many differences that are absolute KEY differences, the kind that should never be overlooked or glossed over. What makes Russell Wilson so good as a quarterback is that from the very start at North Carolina State, and then especially at Wisconsin, he always had the ability to do BOTH things. He always was able to read the field from the pocket and deliver timing based throws by reading the defense. And then he was also more than willing to run around and buy time, use the clear vision and his special athletic sense and ability to deliver strikes that hurt a defense. He did both. If you took one of the two things away from him, he could survive on the other. He wouldn't necessarily be elite with one armed tied behind his back so to speak, but he would still be pretty good. He didn't deliver from the pocket as high as a percentage as some pocket passers in the NFL. I was about as high on him as you realistically got pre-Draft but even I had to admit that. There were clearly some markers that you could associate with his being short and having trouble seeing over the line at times. But his ability throw passes that worked within the read and timing system was still a very high percentage of the time, especially since he developed a habit of backing up away from the line so that he could get clearer vision while maintaining a central location from which timing based reads and throws were still possible. He was still doing more reading of the field than any other quarterback present at the Senior Bowl, which I was able to verify with a friend who got access to the Senior Bowl practice tapes and discovered that Russell Wilson averaged a higher number of reads per pass play than any other QB there. If Johnny Manziel does not develop THAT ability, then he will be sunk in the NFL. He's not the kind of athlete that can survive the style of play he engages. He's already taking injuries, which is why he's coming out early to begin with. Let's not forget that he's small. He's no gigantor like Cam Newton or Daunte Culpepper. And given his very well publicized attitude, character and work ethic questions, one really does have to question whether he is going to develop the things Russell Wilson did that make him the successful borderline elite quarterback that he is.
I agree for the most part. I think the jump ball to Mike Evans plan was more prevalent in some games than others (IE Alabama). But he certainly had a lot of help from his WRs on scramble drills. Here are my thoughts outside of the realm of stats, since I've pretty much watched every pass snap he's taken. As I alluded to, I think he creates unnecessary pressures on himself. In his haste to bounce around the pocket or scramble, he often puts his blockers in positions where they can't sustain the blocks and he ends up getting chased because of that. That's fine in college where he can beat them while rolling right, but there's no way Cam Wake doesn't kill him trying to do the same thing in the NFL. Moreover, for all of his scrambling he's just solid at throwing on the run. 67% completion rate while rolling right, which is just slightly above Bortles and way below Teddy (80%). If your game relies on rolling out or scrambling that much, you damn well better be great at throwing on the run. Last year I killed Tyler Wilson because I hated how many balls he underthrew, they were all at his receiver's feet. Manziel has a similar problem. The amount isn't as high as Wilson, but it's getting close. I'm not sure if it's a product of the pressure or scrambling, but the amount of balls he puts in the dirt is too high. I can think of a crazy play in the UTEP game where he puts it at the feet of Mike Evans and Evans just barely catches it after a defender hits him. His receivers bailed him out many times on those low balls. As a fan of Northwestern, one of my favorite players of all time is Dan Persa who was the QB three years ago back now. He was doing the bounce around in the pocket thing before it was all the rage and he was extremely accurate. The one thing you see when you watch him is that he never went backwards. He would stop, move sideways, reverse direction but always with the intent of moving forward in some way. That's my biggest thing with Manziel. I hate when he stands in a clean pocket and naturally drifts further back when he doesn't have to. It's like he thinks "there are guys moving towards me, I should move away from them" even when he doesn't have to. Same thing when he's scrambling, running 10 yards backwards is just a bad idea. It reminds me of Tebow as a Bronco against the Patriots when they ended up with a 4th and 45 or something. If Manziel could just stay in the pocket and step up once in a while, I could tolerate some of the other things - but I really don't like the unnecessary movement backwards. That's how you end up throwing off your back foot and getting picked in the NFL.
I think I disagree on the moving backward thing. For a pocket passer who is TALL and naturally sees the field over the linemen, you want a guy to step up into the pocket. That's not Manziel. He's never going to survive that way. He will never see over his linemen and see the field if he develops that habit. Russell Wilson and Drew Brees have to be his models, and both of those guys back up. Both of those guys keep the action in front of them so that they can react to it using their unusual awareness and quickness. That's what Manziel has to be if he's going to make this work, IMO. The question is whether he has the arm strength and vision that Wilson and Brees have to make it work.
I guess what I'm talking about (or what I'm trying unsuccessfully to describe) isn't natural movement to allow better vision, but unnecessary or unnatural movement. I think there are plenty of plays where he's had clean passing lanes or a clean pocket and he starts to move backward frenetically because it allows him to take off and scramble easier. Sometimes he resets and throws, sometimes he throws off his back foot, sometimes he scrambles - but I guess it's how he does it that bothers me. It's not a smooth, natural drift - it seems more like a safety valve in the event he needs to/want to take off rather than simply finding a throwing lane. I don't know, maybe I'm just not describing well what I'm trying to say. EDIT: I guess what it comes down to is natural/ necessary movement versus unnecessary movement. The point I'm slowly getting around to, is whether it's backwards or laterally, I feel like there's too much unnecessary movement that often causes problems. Sometimes it's backwards, sometimes it's laterally that could have been translated in simple steps into or around the pocket.
I think it just goes back to the problem I talked about which is that he doesn't see or read the field when he's in the pocket. At least, not very often. Sometimes you'd swear he never intended to in the first place. That's why he's moving around. He's moving to buy time and get clearer vision. The moving backward as a habit thing is probably what he has to do though, because he's a small player like Brees and Wilson.
I tell you who catches my eye when I watch Texas A&M. Cedric Ogbuehi. I haven't really broken him down yet, but he's someone that always draws my attention when I watch that offense.
Also, a player that I think may be low hanging fruit for Miami if they go for a player who can be a true impact guy and difference maker at the next level. Dominique Easley. I've been watching his film lately, and he's consistently 2 yards into the backfield before the rest of the line is coming out of the stance. This guy has a tremendous burst and he has played everything from the 0 technique to the 5 technique at Florida. Could be Randy Starks's replacement after Miami lets Starks walk this off season.
Very good player, but he has 2 ACL tears in the last 2 years. It'll be interesting to see where he goes in the draft, kind of like Tank Carradine this year.
I hear Todd Mc****'s latest mock draft has Blake Bortles going #3 overall and Johnny Manziel going #4 overall. I swear every time I watch Manziel play I keep thinking if you draft Manziel before Mike Evans then urdoinitrong
This has nothing to do with the draft, but since this thread is pretty much the all encompassing thread for college stuff - it looks like after one year of coaching at Eastern Illinois - Dino Babers was hired as the HC of Bowling Green. He put Garoppolo on the map obviously, but was WR coach for a great group of Baylor WRs, Terrance Williams, Kendall Wright, Antwan Goodley, and Tevin Reese. Will be interesting to see what he does after BGSU.
I talked about Dino Babers a lot, earlier in the thread. What he had done with the Baylor wide receivers was plenty impressive. You forgot Josh Gordon who is absolutely smoking the NFL right now (and probably other stuff, unfortunately). But what I'm really impressed by is what he did at Eastern Illinois when given a chance. This is a guy that was always a smart coach and always coached his guys well, but he was a run game kind of guy, power I formation and all that. He got to Baylor and was introduced to Briles way of doing things and to say the guy was inspired would be an understatement. He fully embraced all of the chicanery and shenanigans that Art Briles installed at Baylor and he not only installed that at Eastern Illinois, he did everything he could to make it even more extreme. He is an Art Briles disciple and he will tell you that, and not just in scheme but in teachings. The results speak for themselves. He took over a team that was 2-9 in 2011 and they went 7-5 in 2012 including an appearance in the FCS playoffs, and then he went 12-2 the following year including an appearance in the FCS Quarterfinals. He had a record-breaking offense. Just watch that team play and both the inventiveness on offense as well as the pace are very impressive. And the guy seems pretty intense too. He gets the best out of those players. I happen to think Bowling Green made one HELL of a hire. I don't think it's going to be long before he's using success at Bowling Green as a stepping stone to become Head Coach of a major team.
Sometimes you just feel sh-tty. I just want to say...Dwight Jones was one of my absolute favorite wide receiver prospects in the 2012 NFL Draft. There were rumors that he didn't care about football, that he wasn't focused, that he half-@ssed things, etc. Like everyone else, I fell into believing these rumors and lamented them because he was such a talent. He fell and fell down the draft boards, all the way to undrafted. He was among my top targets for UDFAs that year. The Texans got him. Shortly after he quit football and everyone thought, well good...doesn't "want it". I just want to apologize to cyberspace. I have no illusions that this will reach him in any way. He left football because his son was born with lung, heart and brain disorders. He was distant during the draft process because he was taking care of a dying son. He left football shortly after signing his UDFA contract with the Texans in May, to continue to care for his dying son. His son died in June of 2012, before his 2nd birthday. Football kept asking him back, but he was not mentally prepared to play after the death of his son...and certainly not before it. He did a stint with the Montreal Alouettes but that didn't really work out. He's had no shortage of NFL teams interested. He's now with the New York Jets, on their practice squad. Say what you will about the Jets...but I wish him all the best. He's very, very talented.
Just boggles me..... the excuses you'll come up with, Chris. j/k. Damn.... that's just.... WOW. Couldn't imagine what he went through... and is still enduring. I have a Balinese cat that's more like my kid than a cat b/c their intelligence level and personality is through the roof for a pet. When I got the sudden news a year and a half ago [when she was only 4] that she had nasal lymphoma and wouldn't live another 6 weeks, I pretty much f***** lost it. Sold my car to help pay for her cancer therapy including 20 expensive bouts of radiation, and that was just to buy an extra 18'ish months, after which it typically returns aggressively with little that can be done. After that experience, I honestly don't even know how I'd begin to handle the news of a dying or deceased child. I know it's cliche but it's true- no parent should have to outlive their kid. I just reached the 18 month period a few days ago so pretty soon I get to hear the bad news all over again.
I love Timmy Jernigan but recently it's been standing out to me more and more on the field how much smaller he looks compared with bigger offensive and defensive linemen. I know that has to sound weird considering how much I love Aaron Donald but I swear even though Donald is short he's got an immense wing span and the size looks fine to me for some reason. Recently with Jernigan I start to wonder. But I should probably just trust my first instinct which was that the guy is a really good football player.
I just feel so ****ty because like everyone else I bought the whole "doesn't love football, is lazy, has work ethic issues" narrative hook, line and sinker. Never questioned it. And to find out what was going on was a two year losing battle for his son's life? Holy cow do I feel like a dog's anus. Hope your cat stays free and clear.
How about this gem from SB Nation: One person with personal knowledge of Jones called him “entitled”, “lazy” and “a turd who doesn’t have the work ethic to make it in the league” .....and here's an even better one from a Houston Texans forum: I'm gonna join TexansTalk just to respond to this racist 57 year old assjack. preciate it.
So these are my profile choices. I want something subtly insulting. I can be either "TeamPick6", "ThatOtherTeamInTx", "EverythingsBigInTxButTheWinColumn" or "..andWeDontLookLikeNoSteers"..... unless you have a good suggestion. Last one is obviously an FMJ reference.
I've been looking more and more at the other Kouandjio, Arie Kouandjio. Unfortunately Arie had to sit behind Chance Warmack so he couldn't play until this year and I think perhaps that's why it's taking a while for people to catch onto him. He's built and looks exactly how you want for a guard. He holds himself well, good natural balance and a straight back, can generate power. He uses his hands very actively, he's very energetic. Too often these big guys are too reptilian. You can tell the guy still needs polishing up on his technique and awareness but that will come with more experience. He's a good natural talent. I like him a lot.
One guy I had noticed, but forgotten to mention is Oregon CB Terrance Mitchell. He's a junior, but there was some talk about him coming out early. I picked up on him while watching Ifo Ekpre-Olomu who most have in the first. I think Mitchell actually has far better ball skills than Ifo with 5 INTs on the year and a number oof passes defensed. Many times Ifo slid to the slot, but Mitchell stayed outside so its not like he was just always on the number two receiver. Its a bit like Darius Slay and Jon Banks last year. Will be interested to see if he declares, could be a mid rounds guy.
I just took a look at Kelvin Benjamin, Donte Moncrief, and Paul Richardson. I'll try to keep it as brief as I can (which is not easy for me). Kelvin Benjamin: I've heard some pundits say the gap between Benjamin and Evans isn't that big, I just couldn't disagree more. Evans is far superior to Benjamin in my eyes. Benjamin is excellent at high-pointing the ball and winning at the catch point, but isn't the same all-around package that Evans is. Benjamin averages 5.1 yards after the catch, which isn't bad for a 6'5" guy, but when you compare that to Evans' freakish 8 yards after the catch, it seems weak. Benajmin also has a tendency to drop wide open passes. He'll make a great catch in the endzone on one play and will drop a wide open 5 yard curl. I've got a drop rate of 9% for him, but more concerning is how easy the drops are. Donte Moncrief: I have a hard time figuring out Moncrief. When I'm watching the tape, I'm thinking he looks a little slow (albeit strong) in his initial step and is more of a long strider. Normally that doesn't lend itself to high YAC, however when I did the numbers he's averaging 7.3 yards after the catch which is very good. He's more of a boom/bust guy after the catch, you'll get 10 catches in a row with nothing and then 20 yards on one play. I think that comes from his strength to break the occasional tackle. Again I did have a problem with drops with him, I have a drop rate of 11.8% which is near Justin Hunter territory from last season. The drops aren't as easy as Benjamin's, but are still there. Having watched all of his receptions/targets, I don't know if I can remember a single reception that was a 'tough' catch where he went up and got the ball. I think you'd expect that more from a 6'3" guy. He's pretty weak on screens with a 4.9 yard after catch average, supporting my long-strider theory. Paul Richardson: So fast. He's very quick and reminds me a bit of Mike Wallace in a few ways. He's a bit taller at 6'0", but is listed at 175. His biggest weapon is his ability to run go/ post routes and beat the DB in single coverage with his speed. And he's quite good at it, 26% of his receptions were deeper than 20 yards. However any route that isn't one of those two is pretty much guaranteed to get zero yardage after the catch. On the whole he averages 4.5 YAC which is lowest of this class so far. Part of it is the amount of comebacks he runs, but mostly it's him falling down after he catches the ball. I haven't totally finished charting him yet, I'm missing a few games but right now I have his drop rate at 10.8% due largely to a lot of easy drops in the Oregon game. I don't know why all three of these receivers have high drop rates, just coincidence I guess. I'm not sure any of them would be in my top 5-10 receivers right now.
Terrance Mitchell is a very strong talent. I like Ekpre-Olomu a lot but Mitchell is very good as well.
I think everyone knew in 2012 that Ra'Shede Hageman was a physical freak, a marvel of genetics. But you didn't really see that translate onto the football field too often for whatever reason. That's certainly happening a LOT more this year. The version of Margus Hunt I actually like.
I'd be very happy to see us draft Shaquil Barrett, Colorado St OLB. He came up big in their bowl game today. The team was trailing by 8 with 2 minutes left. He forces one fumble by ripping the ball out, only to have the call reversed because the runner's knee was down. So on the next play, the Cougars run the ball again, and Barrett does the same rip technique to separate a different runner from the ball, and this one counted. Colo St marched down and scored, got the 2 point conversion to tie the game. On the kickoff return, Wash St fumbled for the 3rd consecutive touching of the ball, Colo St recovered. Kick the FG and won. http://www.nfldraftscout.com/members/ratings/profile.php?pyid=120976
I've watched him a lot this year, including yesterday. It's easy to see why Joey Porter took such a liking to him and why he to Porter (who is an assistant coach on their staff btw).
Among inside linebackers I really like C.J. Mosley and Shayne Skov, obviously. I think everyone likes them. But Skov is a guy it seems I've loved for like three years now and so he continues to be my top guy. I just wouldn't exactly call him sideline to sideline. He's very instinctive but very ball carrier oriented, an attack forward type of guy. Very physical. Mosley is a little more sideline to sideline. He also attacks forward really well and has some really surprising good instincts getting out into coverage. He's a safe player, always has a sense for the safe angles to take to cap off the damage of a ball carrier breaking into space. Not afraid of the box and contact at all. I just love Skov's sudden decision making and all-out playing style a little more. But you might be safer with Mosley. Both of them are miles ahead of Chris Borland, IMO. I have to take a closer look at Yawin Smallwood and Max Bullough. I'm familiar with Christian Jones. He's a player. Very athletic but also very susceptible to being fooled. I like Andrew Jackson and I've always been a fan of DeDe Lattimore from USF. I like Ryan Shazier and Khalil Mack a lot just not precisely sure they fit into the same category. Shaq Barrett, too.
Skov's timing on the blitz is very impressive. I don't think his numbers in the combine will be that great. I loved watching him since he was a freshman out there, but I really wonder about his sideline to sideline speed. That injury didn't help either. Skov's instincts and attitude are incredible though. Christian Jones is a freak of nature, but I hear they moved him closer to the line in that DE/LB hybrid role because he just wasn't reading and reacting fast enough out there.
Seems like we are in a position to double up on the position given the talent and Ireland's history. That incoming talent at the OL position certainly is a blessing!
Any thoughts on East Carolina's Justin Hardy? He caught my eye today while I was watching the East Carolina/Ohio game during lunch time at the clinic. So, tonight, I watched his footage against Southern Mississippi. Plays in the slot a lot....very strong hands....he made a catch today that showed just how strong his hands are.....needs to get more consistent with his release off the line.....very good on vertical stemmed routes.
The thing is, there is also veteran talent set to be available on the market so I hope they don't necessarily look at the rookie class and then decide to eschew the veterans. That in my opinion would be a misevaluation of the risks involved in the two types of assets. There's a hefty risk involved in veteran free agents acquired from other teams (as we're finding out with Mike Wallace, Philip Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe), however that risk really approaches the risk profile of 1st round draft prospects, with a shorter developmental phase. So when you see guys like Jordan Gross, Branden Albert, Jared Veldheer, Anthony Collins, Austin Howard, Zach Strief and Rodger Saffold, or even to some degree Michael Oher, Breno Giacomini and Ryan Harris...these are all guys that have proven they can do SOMETHING in this league against the caliber of defenders they'll play against. What exactly they can do and how consistently they'll do it on your team under your coaches and in your system is the thing you have to find out...but like I said the risk for them approaches 1st round risk with shorter development time. There are guys in the draft I feel good enough about to perhaps hold off on some of those players available, but not that many of them. As I said in the thread out in the mains if you're asking me to rebuild this Miami offensive line then actually what I would do is target Anthony Collins first and foremost, and then perhaps Rodger Saffold as well (even as injury prone as he's been), and go from there. That gives you options because Saffold can play four of five OL positions pretty well and there's a possibility he might be especially good as a right guard. Collins can play either tackle position really well but is a better pass protector than run blocker and has been very good lately at left tackle. So ideally between the two you've got the LT and RG positions taken care of, but if things don't work out ideally then you could also have them at RT and LG, or RT and LT, or whatever you choose. Then you can head into the draft with the pressure off and can go ahead and take the board as it falls to you. Walk out of there with for example Billy Turner whom you initially play at LG (and may eventually be your LT of the future) and Ja'Wuan James or Seantrel Henderson who are both probably RTs right off the bat...then I think you've probably succeeded in rebuilding the OL. One move I would also make IF and only if the Eagles were willing to hear me out is to trade for OL Matt Tobin. He played LG at Iowa and did it pretty well, also played some LT at Iowa, and played LT for the Eagles during the preseason and killed it. This is one of those moves you don't have to make with any specific ideas in mind but that you might be really glad you did make in the end because the more talent you've got the better. To some degree you will want to insure yourself against further injury to Rodger Saffold.
