To play devil's advocate here, Wilson had a great freshman year but c'mon, he wasn't close to being in Heisman Trophy discussions. Totaled 2400 yards, 21 TDs, 6-7 record, and was in an offense that scored just 23.5 pts/game. Manziel was far and away the better freshman. near 70% completions despite a whopping 159 more passes. amassed 5100 yards & 47 TDs.
I don't know what spindle got put on your saddle but I have three responses: 1. I'm 20 minutes away from the Buccaneers, that doesn't mean I know them that thoroughly. 2. I don't draft a guy high in the 1st round just because I can't assume that he won't develop special abilities. 3. Wrt Cordarrelle, as I said certain things you can expect to improve, but you can't make assumptions about the things that will make a guy special. Patterson had special ability already, just needed a little polish.
We wouldn't need to take 2 QB in the few few rounds since we drafted Tannehill. I'd rather get a play maker on offense or a stud Offensive linemen. I would take a developmental QB like David Fales or Brett Smith. Not ready to give up on Tannehill. I would love to replace Sherman and give Tannehill more freedom.
Just watched Will Sutton against Stanford. Not many splash plays outside of a brilliant TFL on a 3rd and 2. I know he's getting double-teamed a lot, but I would have expected a little more anyways. Maybe he would be more suited as an end in a 3-4, as opposed to a tackle in a 4-3, despite his size.
He's good but there was a time he was being hyped as a high 1st round pick and I wasn't sure I saw that. I like him though. Could be a good second round pick type. I like Aaron Donald more.
If the Dolphins lose to the Bengals tomorrow night I'm probably going to get the green light to start doing some pieces on draftable players the Dolphins could use. Where should I start? Should I give a Draft Winds style initial rundown of all the names people should look at? Or should I focus on a few prospects? I don't want to go overboard with the first one.
I would not go overboard especially because of developments and other things that can happen in the course of a half-season. I think it would be pretty informative if you ran down the tackles, our most glaring need, even in an extensive post here like you usually do. I don't know anything about them, whether their geared for the left and right side, who projects to be a good player at the next level, etc. I keep hearing Richardson this and that but the game I saw him play against Georgia, Ray Drew, I believe his name was, was owning him quite often. So yeah, that would be helpful.
I would just focus on a few prospects that could help Miami. Give your readers a few players to look for the rest of the season.
Yeah I've not been a big fan of Richardson at all. The guys I like most are Jake Matthews and Cyrus Kouandjio, both of whom are left tackle quality. I think Cameron Erving comes a close second to those two. Very well put together and moves well enough to play that position. I've looked at Taylor Lewan in the past and was not tempted to place him high in the pecking order, but at the same time recognized that he had immense talent and could get there. I have not caught up with him in 2013 at all. He could end up the top tackle on my board for all I know. Or he could end up below the above three players. I like Seantrel Henderson and Morgan Moses as project players. They have real potential. I don't like James Hurst much at all. I think he's a try-hard guy, trying to play a position where you've got to be a lot more than a try-hard guy if you want to man it in the NFL. I've been a big fan of Tennessee's Ja'Wuan James for a while. He may not be a left tackle. But he seems like the kind of guy that locks down your right tackle position for a decade and plays it really well. I have him a better tackle than Richardson. Cedric Ogbuehi (junior right tackle Texas A&M), Rob Crisp (senior left tackle North Carolina State) and Cornelius Lucas (senior left tackle Kansas State) are three more guys I have been meaning to get to in tape review, along with Taylor Lewan (senior left tackle Michigan) whom I mentioned above. I've heard good things about Wesley Johnson (senior Vanderbilt) as well.
No spindle on my saddle. You just seem a little hypocritical in your responses is all. 1. How does me saying I have somewhat of a pulse on things translate to the extreme of "knowing NC St thoroughly"? I really don't understand your argument here. I lived close to the campus and watched a few more games b/c they were the local game on TV, were always on at bars & restaurants, were discussed in more depth in the papers & radio, and were talked about more in general conversation than some random team from the midwest. You were the one lending credence to Boomer's "extensive bit of work on Wilson during his NC St days" but me living near the campus and having a better understanding of NC St than any other program not named Clemson & UNC means nothing? I guess that means you have as much/little of a pulse on UCF's program as you do Colorado's. So if me being heavily involved in football & the draft and living next to NC St doesn't matter when talking about freshman & sophomore Russell Wilson, what does warrant greater respect? 2. Are the mid teens through twenties considered high 1st round? 3. If this were the case and it were that cut and dry then Cordarrelle wouldn't have lasted till the end of the 1st round. He lasted that long b/c he was viewed as a risk b/c, contrary to your statement that he just needed a little polish, there was no guarantee he'd develop the mental side of the game nor learn all the nuances of the position. Don't see how this is different from a young QB who is still developing his accuracy [which is improving IMO] and still learning how to throw with better anticipation [which he is also improving on IMO]. This just seems to me like you're applying an argument against Manziel just b/c it's convenient and fits. Where was this same argument against Cam Newton when you were a proponent of drafting him #1 overall? Cam did exactly what you're criticizing Manziel for, if not to a greater degree. He constantly bought time to throw to the open man, displayed inconsistent accuracy, and frequently had simple reads and looked for the open man rather than throwing with anticipation.
If you're referring to me, I'm not talking about giving up on Tannehill or using a high draft pick on QB. I was merely speaking about Manziel in general.
If it were up to me, maybe start with positions Miami can anticipate a lot of change at. O-line is obvious, D-line with potential free agents, and maybe the secondary as there are no real guarantees with Clemons, Carroll, and Patterson and we've not seen the rookies yet.
Just looking at Cornelius Lucas for the first time really, couple of surface level observations: 1. Has that high-hipped, long-legged look I often despise in offensive tackles. Like a Tony Ugoh. 2. On the plus side, overall he's got that big, overwhelming size/frame look to him, which can be important. 3. Can't really sink his butt and generate power into his punches. 4. Doesn't use his hands well at all, really. 5. Not all that aware of a player. 6. You can tell without seeing him run that those long legs and lower body of his probably generate some hella speed. He's got a hemi engine below the waist but it's not all connected very well, doesn't end up doing him much good. Overall I'd get nervous if you're drafting this guy to be a left tackle at the next level. He reminds me of a Tony Ugoh or maybe an Anthony Collins. Those would be my comparisons.
Some initial thoughts as I work my way back into Taylor Lewan. 1. He may be tall from whistle to snap but he looks short from snap to whistle. Really good pad level and knee bend. 2. Scouts may be turned off a little by his arm length. 3. He is nasty as they come. He will do anything to get the job done. Anything. But he's very subtle in his nastiness. Doesn't seem to get called for anything. But if you put the camera close up, you keep thinking holy cow he did not just do that and get away with it. Velcro hands. 4. Athletically he doesn't look like much from snap to whistle. But I've heard he's good on a track. 5. There's no panic in his game. He just keeps working. Slap his hands, hit his head or get your hips around him, he just keeps working. He recovers. 6. Seems very technical, very sound fundamentally. 7. Good back. Sits very comfortably. Connects his lower and upper halves well. 8. When he's at his worst, it's either athletic limitations or leaving his chest too open. Overall conclusion, this is what a try-hard guy looks like when he's actually got the talent to back it up. It wouldn't surprise me if he was the top performing left tackle out of the entire class once he reached the pros. You've got to watch him face Jadaveon Clowney in the bowl game last year. Lewan faced an elite level talent at the pinnacle of his game. As you might imagine, it wasn't all cakes and lollipops for him that day. But he just kept working and much more often than not, he neutralized Clowney. The difference between that game and for example the Hurst versus Clowney game is that in the bowl game Lewan actually neutralized Clowney, whereas in the UNC-USC game, Clowney did more to neutralize Clowney. Then you fast forward a year to the Connecticut game and the difference in competition is stark. Lewan goes from looking like he's getting the job done against a great player to looking like a Little League player that should be playing Babe Ruth.
Cedric Ogbuehi a good player. Really well put together. Sits very comfortably, looks fluid. Moves around very easily, no shortage of athleticism. Big lower half, thick legs, bubble, all that. The one big concern is upper body. The guy doesn't punch and he doesn't seem to have great upper body strength or ability. He could be a 10 but he's only a 7 or 8 because of that.
Can't say. Don't really know. Mike Evans, I would say probably so. Those two are close. Ogbuehi...flip a coin.
I'm really starting to think QB Blake Bortles is more than just an intrigue. He's debuting HIGH on my chart.
What draws me to Blake Bortles is he actually sort of reminds me of Andrew Luck. He's got that kind of ability to work the pocket and make arm throws from different leverage, moving left or right, different platforms, etc. Luck doesn't actually have special accuracy when he's doing that stuff, believe it or not. He's just so comfortable at doing it, fearless at working the pocket and working the rush, trying to make things happen with his arm. Bortles has that same comfort level. Unfortunately he also has the same accuracy which is to say he's not quite at the Aaron Rodgers level when it comes to that stuff. I wouldn't say inaccurate on the move, for either quarterback (Luck or Bortles). They make GREAT plays from on the move. It's just not quite Rodgers. Tannehill probably has slightly better accuracy on the move. But there's something about the confidence in the arm to where he doesn't care what his legs are doing while he's throwing, that really reminds me of Luck a lot. That was something that was characteristic of Luck. It's the reason he's so comfortable making throws from any leverage. He has supreme confidence in his arm. He knows he can just throw something all-arm, no-legs and reach good velocity and distance. I've timed/measured those velocities and some of what he can do in those situations was pretty amazing. On the other hand with Luck the problem was he was so confident in his arm that he sometimes got lazy with his feet and hips on occasions where he didn't need to throw at odd leverage. That's where folks got the impression that Luck doesn't have that strong of an arm. He doesn't get the torque out of his hips that a Matt Barkley does, because Barkley needs every ounce he can get whereas Luck doesn't. Bortles reminds me more of Luck this way. Where he differentiates from Luck a little bit is Bortles doesn't seem as focused on stealing bases off the scramble (running for first downs). But then, maybe I'm wrong about that. He ran for a lot of yards in 2012. I like looking at where a guy makes his mistakes at that position. Bortles has only thrown four picks this year and I've seen all four of them. It's all kind of understandable. One against Louisville, I swear he was trying to throw the ball away to the sidelines but was being hit around the legs while he threw and it took just enough mustard off the throw to allow really one HELL of an interception by the Louisville defender. Talk about a toe tap. Another against South Carolina, I think his biggest problem was just that he threw the football with too much trust. He knew the coverage and tried to look off the safety, click over and throw the ball on the dig. He trusted his man to win against the off coverage and so he didn't check the corner when he threw it. The corner broke on the ball like he knew it was coming the whole time (film study?) and the receiver didn't fight to re-gain position. Two more interceptions, one against South Carolina and another against Penn State, I'd swear Bortles just got over-aggressive which I actually appreciate. Just tried to fit a ball he couldn't end up getting there. I know in the case of one of those throws I'd swear he had the right idea but he was being hit around the waist as he threw and couldn't step into it. Couldn't get the ball over the defender's head. I see mistakes like that and it's kind of encouraging. They're understandable mistakes. They're not "what the hell were you thinking" mistakes. We're talking about a 2.02% interception rate in 2013, and only a 1.75% interception rate in 2012. So we're not talking about any issues that are out of control. This guy appears to be very good. I knew I liked him from previous viewings, didn't expect I would like him this much. NU_Gap, you're going to need to do a workup on this guy.
You want a great instance of a quarterback having eyes in the back of his head? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=ESC_rbn5Hlg#t=108 See if that will jump to time index (1:48) for you. If not just fast forward there. This is what people complain that Tannehill doesn't do enough of. Was Bortles ultimately able to escape the guy's clutches and make a play? No. But it's damn surprising he was even able to get outside the pocket and throw the football away. We've seen Tannehill not be able to do that, and Ryan was a former 1000 yard receiver.
Got around to looking at Michael Campanaro. Not a big fan. Small, looks small, plays small. He's quick, but I don't think he's fast. He runs duck-footed, which I think gives him good balance but it saps his speed. He just really strikes me as a nice college player...and that's it.
I'm planning on it. I took a look at him a little while ago and was really impressed by his mobility in the pocket. Right now I'm working on wide receivers and I've added a lot more categories than in the past so it'll take me a little while. Once I get through a few WRs, I might move onto interestig QBs. I'm not sure if you know one of the draft guys who writes for Optimum Scouting, Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq). He's been doing a bit of charting on QBs himself. From what I can tell it's not to the same level of detail I would do, but it's good stuff. Here's a piece on Blake Bortles vs Akron and includes a little bit of charting: http://www.optimumscouting.com/draft/articles/2014-nfl-draft-wake-up-to-ucf-qb-blake-bortles.html Then another piece of his on the 2014 Senior prospects: http://www.optimumscouting.com/draf...ft-justis-s-off-season-quarterback-study.html Some interesting stuff in there. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'm going to include him in my WR workup. First impressions were positive just on film, but we'll see how I feel after I get a chance to take a look at the entire dataset.
Finished up Brandin Cooks. I've done every game except the USC game played last night and the San Diego State game, so we've got a nice sample size. Here are my statistical impressions. His yards after the catch are interesting. Last year he averaged about 7 yards after the reception. That puts him in the upper echelon of players, near Tavon. Guys like Cordarrellle Patterson, Stedman Bailey, etc all averaged around 5.5-6 yards after the catch. This year, Cooks' YAC has dropped down to 5.5. I have a few explanations/ thoughts on that. 1. If you watch him for long enough, you notice this frustrating habit of jumping to catch a ball when he doesn't need to. Mannion maybe's throwing a bit high, but nothing you couldn't get with a good hands catch. Cooks may be slowing himself down by jumping right when he catches the ball. 2. I have the data, but haven't had time to synthesize it (also nothing to compare to), on how many routes he came back to the QB on. If he runs an abnormal amount of them, he's far less likely to gain yardage after the catch when he comes back and then has to turn around upfield to gain yardage. 3. ~17% of his receptions are 20+ yards (similar to Wheaton/Terrance Williams last year). Mannion sometimes just heaves it as far as he can and when it doesn't hit Cooks in stride he ends up coming back for a jump ball that doesn't gain any yardage. Regardless, 5.5 yards still isn't a bad number. Here's where the good stuff comes in. Last year among the top receivers, the group averaged 5.77 yards after the catch on screens. The best of the group was C. Patterson who averaged 12 yards/ reception on limited attempts. On 26% of Cooks' total receptions, he averages 13.44 yards after the catch on screens. That right there tells you how shifty he is. That's a man taking things into his own hands and making plays on a non-insignificant number of plays. Impressive stuff. With all of that said, he has good hands as well. I've currently got a 4.17% drop rate for him, which would be the best among last year's receivers. Really good stuff from Cooks, someone just has to tell him to stop jumping unnecessarily. Will have more on routes and their effect on YAC when I write up the actual piece.
Yeah I'm with you on Cooks. I might have to look at old Tavon Austin tapes again to try and get a good base for comparison on the quickness of the two players. Right now Cooks looks about as quick and fast as Austin did to me, but he's got so much more experience as an actual receiver. That was always the thing that made me nervous about Tavon Austin, it always made me feel like the hype train was running away from itself. I could put on a tape of Cordarrelle and see him running real routes and catching balls off those routes. Was he raw? Sure. But the tape was still there. I had to go on jungle expeditions to find the same amount of tape on Austin. And if they're both raw, at least give me the guy that is like 6'2" or 6'3" or whatever Cordarrelle was. By the way it's criminal how much Cordarrelle is being under-used in Minnesota. He's only run 67 routes. Joe freaking Webb has run 47 routes. At least when he's out there they seem a lot more likely to target him. He's been targeted 19 times on those 67 routes. But you look at a map of where that's all happening and 9 of the 19 targets came behind the line of scrimmage. He's been targeted only 7 times beyond 10 yards up the field, and produced 81 yards. Give me more of THAT.
I find "Joe freaking Webb," to be a very intriguing fellow; now that you mention him. I haven't seen him play this year as a WR, but I read a lot of positive things about him; great character,smart guy,strong,athletic,etc. Funny you should use the word freaking, because the guy is almost a carbon copy of Julio Jones. Exact same height,Webb weighs just 3 lbs. more,Jones is a tad faster, Webb benched more and had better vertical and broad jumps. It's not like he is a rookie learning to be a WR for the first time. He played WR a year in college. He also has significant game experience in the NFL at the QB position. Vikings will have already done most of the work in acclimating him to his new position, and I would imagine Greg Jennings would make a pretty good veteran mentor. I would be OK with signing him to a reasonable two year deal to compete with Rishard Matthews for the #4 WR spot and just leave WR out of next year's draft altogether. They also said they were trying him at gunner and they loved his potential on special teams. Apparently the guy is just extremely coachable and willing to do whatever asked with exuberance. Sounds like he is about as far from a diva personality as it gets. The guy showed some serious break away speed as a QB. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wX-I7KZjRU
Just a quick target list of players I'd like to see Miami draft, both offense and defense: *Updated - A few names added 11/6* Isaiah Crowell - Alabama State Carlos Hyde - Ohio State Karlos Williams - Florida State Sammy Watkins - Clemson Brandin Cooks - Oregon State Mike Evans - Texas A&M Dri Archer - Kent State Eric Ebron - North Carolina Jace Amaro - Texas Tech Taylor Lewan - Michigan Cyrus Kouandjio - Alabama Antonio Richardson - Tennessee Morgan Moses - Virginia Cyril Richardson - Baylor Spencer Long - Nebraska John Urschel - Penn State Louis Nix - Notre Dame Stephon Tuitt - Notre Dame Ed Stinson - Alabama Donte Rumph - Kentucky Deandre Coleman - California Will Sutton - Arizona State Kahlil Mack - Buffalo C.J. Mosley - Alabama A.J. Johnson - Tennessee Shayne Skov - Stanford Greg Blair - Cincinnati James Norris - Iowa Bradley Roby - Ohio State Kyle Fuller - Virginia Tech Pierre Desir - Lindenwood Justin Gilbert - Oklahoma State Deion Belue - Alabama Ricardo Allen - Purdue Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix - Alabama Nickoe Whitley - Mississippi State Lemarcus Joyner - Florida State Christian Bryant - Ohio State
Here's an interesting idea: draft Vic Beasley AND Kyle Van Noy and run a left-right linebacking system. Similar pair of fast, athletic playmakers who can get after the QB. They'd be as good if not better in coverage than Wheeler & Misi; blitzing capability would skyrocket; and our nickel front would be a nightmare. We could effectively rush 4 and drop 7 every passing down with a rotation of Wake, Jordan, Beasley, Van Noy, and Odrick. LOL at Wake & Beasley split wide leaving the interior oline trying to stymie Jordan & Van Noy inside when they have room to operate. That would trump what Seattle impressively does in nickel with Irvin, Clemons, Avril, and Bennett. Man the fun we could have in nickel/dime with that type of front and with our blitz packages too. Imagine a QB's protection having to worry about facing both Wake & Van Noy coming off their right side or Jordan & Beasley off the left on any given play.... or have Van Noy & Beasley both off the edge showing blitz simultaneously to make the back's protection read a giant ball of confusion. Plus it would allow us to better hide our scheme & coverage and would be great to have against up-tempo offenses b/c there'd be less need to frantically shuffle players around pre-snap. We'd have to trade up for Van Noy but something like that could take this defense over the top and would likely speed up Brady's retirement. Not to mention, a quartet of Jordan, Beasley, Van Noy, and Odrick could be the future foundation of a consistently great defense the next 8-10 years when considering an outstanding pass rush has the second greatest impact in the game behind QB play. With those four as the defensive staple, as we lose defenders to FA, the salary cap, injury, and retirement, it would be significantly easier to add new pieces without missing a beat. Just an out-of-the-box thought. Sign Albert & Oher in FA and re-sign Soliai & Grimes to make it possible.
Quick update on Jordan Matthews of Vanderbilt. Some interesting numbers, but I don't know if necessarily positive. I've got every game but UMass and UAB, so sample size is good. At first blush, it's all great. He's averaging a ridiculous 8.52 yards after the catch on all receptions. Which would be among the highest I've ever seen. On screens he's averaging 13.2 yards after the catch. However, this may just be a product of the screens themselves. Nearly 42% of his receptions have been screens, which is pretty much like Tavon. On non-screen passes he's averaging 5.1 yards after the catch, which is solid. It makes you wonder if his overall success is a product of solid athleticism and Vandy's execution on screens. Outside of screens, 50% of his receptions come on posts/corners/ and slants which tend to produce the most YAC. Vanderbilt loves to line him up in the slot and find success on those routes against zone. Not a lot of variety in his route running compared to Cooks who has a pretty good distribution of routes. For what it's worth, after watching most of his receiving attempts, I don't think his routes look particularly crisp. Really the kicker is that he has a 10% drop rate which is a red flag to me. It's great that a 6'3" guy can do so well on screens, but athletically he's not C. Patterson/Julio Jones/ Sammy Watkins so is a lot of that success just scheme? Not sure.
Neither has Minnesota. You're really trying to dress up a pig aren't you. It's been 6 years since Webb played WR, and that lone year was at UAB for Pete sake. How do you get "significant NFL QB game experience" out of 3 NFL starts? He was a glorified wildcat QB at best. No they haven't. If we sign him for 2 years, we would be the ones doing the most of the acclimating. Cribbs & Hester were less of a project and they could never really make the transition. Matthews doesn't need competition for the #4 spot, and WADR you're kidding yourself if you think Webb could compete with him. If we signed him for 2 years, it would take every bit of that and then some to get him up to speed. Waste of a contract and roster spot IMO. Draft a WR with receiving experience who can actually contribute should our top 3 become injured. Tends to happen when you have just 4 receptions in 4 years.
LOL. Todd you probably should've just stopped after the first line. Open with a knockout punch, drop the mic and walk off the stage.
Right now my two favorite WR prospects (not named Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins) are Odell Beckham Jr and Brandon Coleman.
One thing I noticed while watching Sammy Watkins is a lot of Tajh Boyd's screens seem to be thrown high, which I would imagine doesn't let the WR gain as much YAC as he could. I was wondering if anyone who has watched a lot of Boyd knows what I'm talking about, and has it always been like that?
I've watched a fair amount of Brandon Coleman and there's something there that bothers me. I'm sure I could put it into words if I tried. But I will say that Kelvin Benjamin is a guy that looks like Coleman from a body standpoint yet doesn't bother me in quite the same way, for some reason.
So I guess the target board needs to get populated with a lot more offensive linemen...since we're going to need four of them in the off season. At least.
Here's my piece on Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews and Brandin Cooks for those interested. It's got the stuff I posted here plus some more data and Sammy Watkins. A lot of screens for these guys. Some crazy YAC numbers to be sure: http://secondroundstats.com/2013/11/06/2014tier1wr/ I'm thinking the next WR tier will be Devin Street, Odell Beckham Jr, and ?????. Not sure about the third guy yet. Shout out if you have a request. Gotta focus on this draft stuff, 24/7 of this Dolphins mess will just make my head explode.
