Ronin's 3-4 Thoughts

Well, 3-4 sucks, there's no other way to slice that kind of humble pie, and I think Miami's on the verge of reaching a franchise boiling point. I'll get to reviewing the Dolphins vs. Patriots game shortly; there's a few things I want to put up for discussion first. A loss like today's a week after a gut-wrenching one like the Buffalo loss is surely a metaphorical way of kicking a man while he's down. I've got little doubt that Cincinnati will effectively stomp on the Dolphins' throats come Halloween. After that Buffalo game I pegged the Patriots and Bengals games as two more red-dead losses. For those that are out there saying, "Bollocks, Ronin!" I encourage you to pull the eject handle and bail out of the thread now. For those still reading, thanks. If you've ever seen the Kevin Costner film "13 Days" about the Cuban Missile Crisis, I feel like the Miami Dolphins front office could potentially be something akin to the scene where General LeMay is trying to tell JFK that if the US bombs the Soviet Missile Sites, that the Soviets won't retaliate. Should Miami, the US in this soliloquy, lose to Cincinnati; as I presume they will; then Mr. Ross, the Soviets, needs to retaliate in some fashion. I say this because I think as the 2013 season has played out, I personally have come to three, in my opinion incontrovertible conclusions.

Author's Note: I'd recommend you read the following sipping a fine bourbon or scotch, or smoke your finest cigar, or even have a cup of coffee and just think it through objectively.

Starting with the least severe truth, as I think all [should] merit a great deal of concern from Stephen Ross, those three truths in my opinion are:

#3 - My worst fear stemming from last season has played out. I wanted Jeff Ireland to be replaced as I did not trust that he would effectively use the multitude of resources Miami had in the form of cap space and draft picks going into the offseason. I think at this point in time it's fairly safe to say that Jeff Ireland whiffed on his big three free agent acquisitions - Mike Wallace, Dannell Ellerbe, and Philip Wheeler. I take solace in the fact that all three have contracts that can be relatively easily be swept away after the 2014 season. One acquisition, Wallace, shouldn't have been sought after in the first place let alone paid that exorbitantly. One acquisition, Dannell Ellerbe, isn't accustomed to the style of defense Miami is currently, and wrongly using in my opinion, and the third, Philip Wheeler is just an average player. Those free agent dollars weren't well spent, and at present, the draft class, on the surface, appears to be the victim of injuries robbing the players themselves of experience and opportunity. Not a collectively good step toward taking Miami back to the place we as fans all want it to go.

#2 - The Miami Dolphins lack identity on both sides of the ball, and that's a direct reflection on coaching. Miami's staff hasn't moved forward. Offensively, what does Miami do well? If you're really objective, about the only two things that have been consistent week-to-week, game-to-game, drive-to-drive, are Mike Pouncey and Charles Clay. Unfortunately, most offenses aren't successful when you're center and hybrid tight end are the constants. Defensively, and this may be annoying to some, but I've espoused since the Atlanta game that this defense is not very good. Opponents have scored 20 or more points in 6 of 7 games. Let that sink in. It's not good. It's my personal belief that with resources like Cameron Wake and Dion Jordan, and given the experience the team already had on the defensive front, that a 3-4 defense would be much more suitable for this team. Even last year's defense, which more or less used 3-4 personnel in oversized 4-3 looks, proved much more effective than this year's unit. I know injuries have played a part, but Miami's defense was as close to 100% as it's been all season today. For a half, they looked like how we all thought they would. Reality set in in the second half and the defense was shredded. There's 3-4 and 4-3 parts, and none of them seem to fit well together any more. Some guys are better playing man-to-man, some play better off-man, some play better in zone. None of them play particularly well for 60 minutes, and haven't since the Cleveland game in week one. Phil Simms said it twice during the broadcast today that if you look at the players Miami has on defense they could be a top five (I'd argue top ten) defense. Unfortunately, Miami's not even top half in any major statistical category on defense. They even showed a graphic. They. Even. Showed. A. Graphic.

I would also contend that the team quit today. Whether it happened when Caleb Sturgis missed that field goal off the upright, when Dimitri Patterson was called for defensive holding, when Olivier Vernon was correctly flagged for illegal touching of the fumble, when Joe Philbin didn't challenge the Rishard Matthews play on the sideline; whatever it was, this team lost it in the second half. Joe Philbin himself in his post-game interview looks disconnected as if he's merely reviewing tape of some other team as a third party, not as if he's the head coach. He, as it appears to me at this juncture, is more milquetoast than we all thought that he wasn't.

#1 This has been bandied about since Bill Parcells left, but Jeff Ireland and the current front office setup is not a winning recipe and it's time for Stephen Ross to act. I feel as though he should act swiftly if Miami loses on Halloween. A loss would put Miami at 3-5, and with a mini-bye week coming off a Thursday night game, what better selling point does Stephen Ross have than that to act and press the metaphorical "Detonate Button" and send a message. A loss, I believe, should result in the termination of both Jeff Ireland and Joe Philbin. Not only does the mini-bye give an interim coach time to set things up, but it also allows Stephen Ross to move forward with a full deck in a search for a new General Manager and Head Coach. He won't be searching for and meeting with the next Jim Harbaugh with a coach still under contract and a General Manager who may or may not (let's face it, probably won't) align with a new coaches ideals and philosophies moving forward.

Albert Einstein once said that doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different outcomes is the definition of insanity. The one constant that Miami's had since it's last playoff trip in 2008 is in fact Jeff Ireland. There's been an ownership change, a CEO change, a head coaching change, several coordinator changes, and even a different marketing campaign change. Somehow Jeff Ireland has survived all of that, for reasons right or wrong, for players correctly attributed to him and not Bill Parcells and vice-verse, he's been here. It's time for a clean slate. Let me repeat that, it's time for a clean slate. And, the masochist in me, thinks that the very best thing for the Miami Dolphins both in the short-term and the long-term, is a clean break from the front office and coaching staff. A loss to Cincinnati on Thursday night, in my opinion, would bring about the perfect point for Stephen Ross to sh*t can things. Certainly, if Miami lost to Cincinnati then turned around and lost on Monday Night Football to the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers would bring about such a change, but why wait if Miami loses Thursday night? An interim coach gets a few extra days during the week, plus an additional day the following week to setup new schedules and structures and Stephen Ross has two months to find the right guy to take the keys to the car. Bring in Dan Marino as a consultant to help find the right GM and/or head coach. Talk to Carl Peterson. Do whatever it takes to find the correct people. My biggest fear now is that Stephen Ross will keep both Ireland and Philbin and let the hamster wheel keep on turning. Put this franchise in the right direction for a change, not the same one.

Now, for my thoughts on the game today in the usual Good, Bad, Bizarre format.

Good:
- Ryan Tannehill, when he's on, can be VERY good. Some of the throws he made today were elite.
- Lamar Miller got rolling today getting a career high in rushing yards. He proved today that he's a better pass-blocker than Daniel Thomas.
- That said, Daniel Thomas has ripped off his best two game stretch as a Dolphin. Other than the Seattle game last year, I don't think he's run better than he has the past two weeks. Granted, both Buffalo and New England have pretty porous run defenses.
- Rishard Matthews gets a chance to shine. I've felt he's been missing from the offense. It's unfortunate that his playing-time is a direct result of losing Brandon Gibson for the season. Gibson was having a very good season.
- Charles Clay has made me not miss Dustin Keller.
- Michael Egnew is growing. He and Dion Sims both hauled in passes today.
- Bryant McKinnie looked good. I'd even consider bringing him back on a short-term deal next year just to save yourself from over-drafting one of the left tackles in the 2014 draft class. Miami would would well to hire DJ to monitor McKinnie's workout regimen 24/7 in the offseason.
- Mike Pouncey is an athletic freak. If Jeff Ireland does anything major during the remainder of what should be a short tenure here in Miami I hope that he extends Mike Pouncey.
- Jared Odrick and Randy Starks both played very well today.
- I'm not sure I can remember a game since the Jimmy Johnson days when the Miami Dolphins secondary has collectively tackled as well as they did today.
- Reshad Jones and Chris Clemons both had pretty good games, Jones in particular is on a nice uptick in play since the first four games.

Bad:
- Ryan Tannehill cumbled in the second half and can look pretty bad when things go poorly around him. I think at this juncture of his career he's very much a rhythm quarterback. When he's hot, he's hot. When he's cold, he's frigid. I think that Miami needs better coaching around him than Mike Sherman and Zac Taylor to make him into what I think he can be. I think they served him well acclimating to the NFL as a rookie, but now they're merely turning into training wheels that need to be taken off.
- Miami, yet again, abandoned the run game to early. This is something Mike Sherman's done consistently throughout the year.
- Mike Wallace is a bust. If anything, Miami needs to develop a package of plays tailored to him (see the screen pass on 3rd and long today). Get the most out of him while you have him here.
- Brian Hartline had an off game today. I'm not sure I've ever seen him let a ball come into his body like that and not make the play.
- Pass protection has regularly been in this list all year. Whether the mistakes have been on the line, on Tannehill, on Turner, on Sherman's scheme, whatever the problem is, it's not been fixed. I also think this serves to mention how much better, at times, the combination of Bryant McKinnie and Jonathan Martin were than the combination of Jonathan Martin and Tyson Clabo - it was pretty staggering, and just goes back into poor talent evaluation and acquisition.
- Richie Incognito has pretty consistently eroded the last month. He's missed a lot of one-on-one backs, and missed them badly in successive weeks.
- Olivier Vernon had his lunch handed to him by Nate Solder in the run game today.
- Cameron Wake is clearly still bothered by his knee. I think the smart play would be to shut him down Thursday and see how he responds coming off a longer layoff against Tampa Bay.
- Increased snaps haven't been kind to Derrick Shelby. He's best served in a limited basis.
- Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler both played well in the first half, and they blitzed well through most of the game. But man, that was pretty craptacular run defense in the second half.
- Speaking of run defense, Miami was running some sort of stunt/run blitz/game with the DTs that New England seemed to know was coming. Paul Soliai got caught in it twice, Odrick once, and Isaako Aaitui twice.
- Isaako Aaitui has no earthly business being on the field during a regular season game. Going back to him from Marvin Austin was a downgrade. Period.
- Koa Misi has been pretty quiet since that extension. New England did a good job of going to three wide receiver looks today to get him off the field.
- Nolan Carroll's days in a Dolphin uniform should be numbered. TOASTED on a double move today. If anything let the young kids - Taylor and Davis - play. We know what we have in Nolan Carroll and it's a special teamer at best.
- Brandon Gibson's done for the year.
- Coaching hasn't improved.

Bizarre:
- Whatever kind of funk Caleb Sturgis is in is bizarre in and of itself.
- This whole season has been pretty bizarre in and of itself.
- Joe Philbin's post-game press conference was pretty much the same as it has been after the past four games. *I* don't find that bizarre, and it's unfortunate that I feel that way.
- The NBA start Tuesday and College Basketball starts in two weeks. Where did the time go?
- This Thursday Night game should surely be bizarre as Cincinnati...er...Marvin Jones (4 TDs) laid it on the Jets today.
- I found it soberingly bizarre that, despite a 3-4 record, that I thoroughly believe the best course of action for the Dolphins is to clean house should they lose Thursday Night and fall to 3-5. Then again, maybe it's not that bizarre.

Until next time, I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable Halloween.

 

It was the correct call. I think the Patterson and Wilson penalties were badly missed, but not OV's.

 

It was the correct call because, even though I believe that OV was trying to recover it, he only dove forward with one arm and tried to catch his dive with the other. If he dove forward with both arms extended, then I'm pretty sure they won't throw a flag on it. But, based on what happened yesterday, it was the correct call.

 

If the Dolphins do lose to the Bengals, what other message is there to really send? It's time that people in charge be held accountable and I think cleaning house immediately gives you a leg up on hiring the correct GM. If you hire that guy and he's in office while the season is still playing out, you'll know which guys want to be here and which one's don't. The same thing happened when Parcells was hired on toward the end of 2007.

As far as hiring a new GM, I think you would probably look at bringing in someone who has a favorable outlook on Ryan Tannehill. I think the tape alone shows you what he CAN be and not necessarily what he is as most things have crumbled around him this season.

 

I don't think there's much of a chance as it is, and if Miami loses to the Bengals, I think that pretty much extinguishes any postseason hope. Four conference losses would be tough to overcome.

 

I think they made the right call.

Regardless of that call, Miami still played in a craptacular fashion on both sides of the ball during the second half before, and after, that play. The same problems that were present in wins during week 2 and 3 are still present now, and newer ones seem to be creeping up weekly. If Thursday night plays out like I think it will, you'll probably find me in the Draft forums more frequently.

At least the Reds named Bryan Price their manager

 

I didn't write the rule.

 

I may only be 27, but I know who the Big Klu is. I haven't really read any stuff on the Reds since they officially named Price; been too busy with a work event and helping with the high school football team I've been coaching. We're playing an undefeated, top 10 ranked team in the state for our regular season finally. Our team has to win, and get help, to make the state playoffs. I'll try to catch up this weekend as I don't think we're going to get the help we need to make the playoffs.

 

To further boost this thread, if Stephen Ross does pull the trigger on a potential house-cleaning, whether sooner or later, I think zwave21 started a pretty solid thread on potential combinations of candidates to be General Manager and Head Coach. You can find that thread here: http://www.thephins.com/forums/showthread.php?78897-Time-for-a-RE-ORG-not-a-RE-BUILD

He highlights 5 steps that would work for a potential house-cleaning. They are:

1) Fire Jeff Ireland, Joe Philbin, and staff. For fun, let's assume this step has already been done.
2) Identify a General Manager.
3) Hire a Head Coach who has chemistry with the General Manger.
4) Put together an experienced coaching staff.
5) Trim the [roster] fat and add pieces.

If you read back through the thread, there are some very interesting names and combinations that were put forth. I think there's one combination that was slightly overlooked, despite several of the names being mentioned. Eric DeCosta was a name mentioned in that post as a possible General Manager candidate. David Shaw was also on the Ravens' staff under Brian Billick, meaning he also was there with DeCosta. I think that might actually be a name worth following closely.

Going by his 5 step process, let's assume that Stephen Ross has already fired Jeff Ireland, Joe Philbin, and the coaching staff. That was step 1. Step 2, let's assume Stephen Ross hires Eric DeCosta on the premise that he's a young, up-and-coming guy from a team that's had consistent talent, drafts really well, and for the most part is competitive year in and year out. Seems reasonable to me, right? DeCosta is hired and if you're Stephen Ross, you've completed steps 1 and 2. Onto step 3.

Step 3 - Hire a head coach who has chemistry with the GM. That brings us back to David Shaw. He, like DeCosta, were both together on the Ravens staff from 2002-05. I think that jives with having at least some form of chemistry, and I could get behind that hiring if DeCosta thinks Shaw agrees philosophically with him. Shaw's ripped off a 29-5 record at Stanford following in the footsteps of Jim Harbaugh. I think it's worth hiring, and for the record, that's probably the one college coach I would consider if I were Stephen Ross. That takes you to step 4.

Step 4 - Put together an experienced and disciplined staff. Well, coaches tend to hire guys they're familiar with. And, you're probably going to hire coordinators first off and build your staff out from there. Well, starting on the offensive side, which is Shaw's background area, he cut his teeth in the NFL with the Oakland Raiders from 1998-2001 under Jon Gruden. Shaw was on the offensive staff under then offensive coordinator Bill Callahan. Callahan, who could be a coaching casualty this offseason if Dallas cans its staff, could be a likely connection, and he's got a wealth of experience for Shaw to draw from.

Moving onto the defensive side of the ball, we know David Shaw was with the Ravens while Rex Ryan was their coordinating their defense. Rex Ryan was considered by most to be a lame duck heading into this offseason, and if the Jets continue to struggle, the Jets may not bring him back. That's a logical connection for Shaw, who has employed a 3-4 style of defense at Stanford, much like Rex Ryan runs, and if you've followed some of my posts, I think Miami would do well to bring back the 3-4.

AND, as a bonus, Rex Ryan and Bill Callahan were on the Jets staff together from 2008-11, where Callahan was the Jets OL Coach (a very good one at that), and Associate Head Coach. That, to me, is a pretty nice circle of General Manager, Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, and Defensive Coordinator. 3 of the 4 - DeCosta, Shaw, and Ryan worked together, and you've had various combinations of Shaw & Callahan and Ryan & Callahan.

I think with that, you can put together a pretty sound philosophy that filters from DeCosta and Shaw on down through Callahan and Ryan, where lines of communication are bolstered due to familiarity. There's a lot of experience to be had on both sides of the ball for David Shaw as he can draw from Callahan and Ryan. I think that certainly allows you a more clear vision of the franchise that you can take into Step 5 - trimming the fat.