Good receivers cost a pretty penny in free agency and can net a return in trade, so for that fact alone I'd prefer to draft one in the first 3 rounds fairly often. I'd throw free safety in there as a higher round draft priority as well considering good ones are tough to find in FA. I'd also grab another great 1st or 2nd round pass rusher if the opportunity presents itself b/c that's one of those positions that if you suddenly find yourself lacking, there's little that can be done to remedy it as it becomes a big thorn in the defense.
Not to mention a guy you don't have to pay $3 or $4 million for and who can grow up and get acclimated to your system. Although that's one thing they've sort of lucked out on with Gibson because he appears a good fit for the system already, though obviously not dynamic.
In my opinion it was a heck of a draft to take a chance on a WR or DE in the 3rd and 5th rds, instead we ended up with Dallas Thomas and Jelani Jenkins- gulp. Now we have Jordan playing out of position at DE- yes there's a problem at LB with the starting crew signed for big money- and I certainly think that a shot on a Marquise Goodwin, Markus Wheaton et al would have been a good bet. 5th rd DE possibilities- Mallicah Goodman, Devin Taylor, the confounding Cornelious Washingtion... btw the freaking Bears got Washington in the 6th rd and Marquess Wilson in the 7th rd, not bad. All the trades are confusing to follow completely, but it looks like picks that we traded away ended up being Shamarko Thomas and David Bakhtiari- point is, we could have had a haul and filled some needs imo. Add to that we could have had RT solved imo with the 2nd rounder that we traded in the Dion Jordan trade- Menelik Watson. Then again, as much as I like Watson, Dion Jordan is a seriously talented player that gives us a needed threat opposite Cameron Wake so it's hard to fault that trade. That being said, I think that it will be a mistake if the coaching staff doesn't find a way to play Jordan at OLB, he's just too good in space to have him tied up with behemoth OTs all the time, that's somewhat of a waste imo.
I just want to highlight this particular play from the bonus footage because it really shows what speed can do for you. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNXlXD3jjTA&feature=player_detailpage#t=0 This is cover two zone and the safety Kenny Ladler does literally about as good a job as he can possibly do reading James Franklin's eyes, reacting and closing to the football. The ball is thrown about 21 or 22 yards beyond the line of scrimmage into the hole between the two zones. What kills me about it though is the timing. Franklin takes his shotgun snap and his two steps, which is three step timing, and then BANG...right off his back foot. Hardly any hesitation. He clicks off his reading of the middle of the field which is what he needs to do on his drop, straight away into simultaneously cocking his arm back and using his eyes to find L'Damian Washington. The throw is a rifle shot. This play only works because of how fast Washington is able to speed his way into the weak spot between the zones with his 4.3 speed. As I said Ladler's reaction to the quarterback was cat quick and he sped his way over to the spot pretty fast. In fact, it makes me want to watch a lot more Kenny Ladler because that could be a very good safety prospect. But because of the quick timing and throw trajectory that L'Damian Washington's speed afforded James Franklin on the play, it doesn't matter how good Kenny Ladler played it. He'd have had to know before the play what was about to happen in order to play it better.
Not sure what motivated the Pats to let Woodhead get away, I would have liked to get him on the Fins.
I'm just going to go with some shameless Northwestern homerism and throw out Venric Mark's name for this category. Mark is a 5'8", 175lb converted WR who made the switch to RB last year. He's a small guy and is having some problems getting over a hamstring problem this year, but has proven to be a pretty tough runner in the past. Here's a clip of him dishing out a nice hit to a Ohio State defender for his size: http://youtu.be/PDWvnt8Zrro His rushing numbers are so-so this year, but don't let that fool you, he averaged 6.0 yards/ carry last year. NU's offensive line has had some problems against the bigger teams in the Big Ten, leading to mediocre rushing averages for Mark this year. However, in total he's averaging 9.6 yards after the catch this year and 7.75 yards after the catch on screens. Granted many of those came on this screen against Ohio State: http://youtu.be/2ZxFejOouRs But that's his game and what you expect, solid runs and receptions until he breaks the big one. He was also named to one of the All-American lists as a punt returner in 2012, returning 2 punts for TDs. I believe he was in the top 5 for all-purpose yardage last year along with Dri Archer. He's not gonna get hyped like Tavon or Dexter McCluster, nor should he, but I think if you were to put him in a role like many have envisioned for Tyler Thigpen and he could have some value. We're going to see how he continues to come back from his hamstring problems, but there could be some potential there. /Northwestern homerism
You and your Northwestern guys, lol. Although to be fair Venric Mark is probably legitimately the best Northwestern prospect to come out since Corey Wootton, of whom I was a very big fan. I was also a big fan of Kafka as a mid to late round QB that year. But I thought Wootton was borderline 1st round. He ended up in the 4th.
I can't imagine it either but of course it depends on what he does from here on out. You've got 6'3" size, 4.3 speed, a great attitude/character, and production against SEC defenses. That's sizzle AND steak. So I think you're right, there's no way the market can stay asleep on him for very long.
Northwestern alums are really good with puns. There are YouTube videos called "Simply ReMARKable" and "MARKnado". Kudos to the "Marknado" video coming only 9 days after the original airing of Sharknado and still about 10 days prior to the second airing of the movie which grabbed 2.1 million viewers. The video incorporated a bunch of clips from the movie, too.
I don't feel like doing the work on him yet but RB Glasco Martin of Baylor has me intrigued. At 6'1" and 220 lbs (at least) he's become pegged there as mostly just a goal line back. When you see his average of 4.6 yards per carry this year and 5.0 yards per carry last year, you tend to think those are good averages in the NFL but in college there isn't a single back among the top 20 in average rushing yards per game that averages 5.0 yards per carry or less. Glasco's career average is about 5.08 yards per carry. The average just looks kind of unexciting. But when you break down the splits, that's when it gets more exciting. One common technique I use when I suspect that a back's usage is skewing his average is to subtract tight red and 3rd/4th & 1-2 yard carries. Do this and Martin ran 30 times for 238 yards in 2011, 119 times for 778 yards in 2012, and 16 times for 116 yards in 2013. Those averages come out to 7.9, 6.5 and 7.3 yards per carry. Keep in mind that when you do this, pretty much all tailbacks' averages are going to jump. But they don't necessarily jump this much. For example if you do it with Bishop Sankey (top overall rusher in the country) his average jumps from 5.7 yards per carry to 6.0 yards per carry. Do it to Antonio Andrews (second leading rusher in the country) and his average jumps from 7.1 yards per carry to 7.5 yards per carry. Glasco Martin's career average jumps from 5.1 yards per carry to 6.7 yards per carry, so you know he's been heavily geared toward goal line and short yardage running in his career and it's had a much more detrimental effect on his overall average than the other guys. Has he rewarded Baylor for their faith in him on goal line? I'd say so. He's produced 18 touchdowns on 61 carries inside the 10 yard line. For a running back that's not bad. I've certainly seen better. The highest efficiency tends to approach 50 percent although Jonas Gray's 75 percent one year was pretty ridiculous. The thing that strikes me about the way they use Martin is he's definitely not getting all these carries at the 1-yard line. As soon as they get into the red zone, they're running way more often than passing and Martin is the one doing the running. That Baylor offense is loaded. Tevin Reese and Antwan Goodley are clear NFL prospects. I think Lache Seastrunk might be the best RB prospect in the Draft. I think Glasco Martin might be an NFL role player as well. Cyril Richardson has the look of an NFL guard. Still trying to get a read on Bryce Petty as sometimes his lack of arm really throws me off.
I do love me some NU players. But I try to be semi-realistic. The two I think have the most promise are Mark and Ibraheim Campbell whom I've brought up multiple times. There might be some intriguing underclassmen, but no one really worth getting super excited about right now. I've seen Brugler and some of those draft guys give Kain Colter a little bit of love as the Antwan Randle-El/ offensive weapon conversion. It's a nice thought and I like Colter as a college player who actually has experience at WR, but I don't see his quickness really translating to a slot receiver. Some people will talk about Tyler Scott, a 6'4, 270 defensive end, because he's leading the Big Ten in sacks and did so last year as well. Like many of NU's defensive ends outside of Wootton, he's a big plodder. I've timed out his sacks and charted his pressures - they're nothing to write home about. Speaking of NU and getting walloped, Melvin Gordon is insane. I had only watched him a few times while checking out some Ohio State players, but his quickness is amazing. Watching his acceleration after hitting the hole is impressive. He had a 71 yard run against NU where he just took off and couldn't be caught. It all looks so easy when he runs.
Melvin Gordon is definitely insane. He's like the Cordarrelle Patterson of running backs. I have him right with Lache Seastrunk for best running back in next year's draft (pending decisions). He might be ahead of Seastrunk. I have a very high opinion of Seastrunk though as I think he has LeSean McCoy written all over him.
Guy I mentioned on my list but haven't talked about is Missouri's Kony Ealy. He's like the version of Ezekiel Ansah that knows a little more about what he's doing on a football field. He's 6'5" and 275 lbs, regularly plays inside, outside, hand up, hand down, etc. Great frame, explosive, really good out in space. [video=youtube;Y0Oks41pVK0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0Oks41pVK0[/video] Bonus footage: 47 yard interception returned for a TD http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omjgmUTWfEA&feature=player_detailpage#t=171
Another guy I put on the list but haven't talked about, mostly because I talked about him a long time ago...is Mike Evans of Texas A&M. Is there a more ludicrous receiver in college football? He's got Brandon Marshall written all over him. [video=youtube;wl2OfgKbEBs]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wl2OfgKbEBs[/video]
Boy I have just been trying to watch LT Cameron Erving of Florida State and my eyes will not come unglued from LG Josue Matias. He is huge without being fat, strong, well put together, he moves really well, I love his back and his balance. He's got great anchor. He's got athletic body control, ability to cut block, turn around for peel blocks, etc. Long arms and a wide body make him a moving wall to try and get around, and his feet make that even harder. His hands are so sticky, they stay inside the frame, engaged on his assignment, pushing and lifting while he stays square...and he sustains all of this for a very long time. Just about everything you could want at the position. The only criticism I have is that his motor could run a little higher when he finds himself in space on broken plays. He's fine in space on pulls or screen blocks but when the play is broken and the quarterback scrambling, he doesn't do a great job of finding work. He's going to be a heck of an asset, though. Debuts at the top of the board at the position.
Isn't he a true sophomore? I love me some Evans though. More of a possession receiver, but he doesn't scare me like Keenan Allen did because he is just so ridiculously strong and uses his body so well.
I don't consider Evans a possession receiver personally. I think he's a big play guy all the way. It's like with Brandon Marshall. Defenses are genuinely scared of what Marshall will do to them deep because of his strength and ability to go up and get the football, so he's constantly got coverage rolled over top of him. Mike Evans doesn't even really know what he's doing right now because of Johnny Manziel. Evans won't get rewarded for absorbing the fineries of timing and footwork. He gets rewarded for going out there and playing playground ball. "Just get open" is pretty much how he plays and it's how he gets rewarded by Manziel. That kind of scares me. If his attitude is great then it's fine. He'll be even that much more dangerous when he is taught to do it right. But if his attitude isn't great then he could be resistant to all the teaching that needs to be done with him, constantly thinking/wishing he'd just be allowed to go out there and be himself. I would not compare him to Keenan Allen at all to be honest. Just different kinds of players.
I meant possession in terms that he wouldn't catch a 5 yard curl and outrun the defense for a TD. He is insane at high pointing the ball in coverage with people all over him. I wasn't comparing him to Keenan Allen at all. I just was saying why I really like Evans and why I disliked Allen; guess that could be taken as a comparison since I am technically comparing them to each other, but I didn't mean it as such lol. The Brandon Marshall one is a good comparison. I think Evans has better hands and is a little bit better at catching the ball along the sideline though. Good point about Evans though, I didn't even think of that issue
I'd deem Brandon Marshall a possession receiver with big play ability. That's pretty much how I'd label Evans.
What would you define as a possession receiver? Additionally, what other types of wide receivers would you say there are?
Does it really matter though? It feels a bit like Madden create-a-player trying to call a player a possession/speed/ balanced receiver. There are so many players that do multiple things. For example, aforementioned receiver Devin Street who can line up in the slot and take a crossing route down the field with good YAC, but also has good deep speed for a 6'4" guy. If a guy fits your system and you like some of his skills, you should describe him as such rather than trying to fit him into a box. I don't know, that's just how I view it. Also Mike Evans is a redshirt sophomore, he redshirted in 2011
In my opinion, there are complete receivers and then there are role players. The role players can fall into the category of slot receivers, split ends and flankers. The flankers are going to tend to have deep speed. If a player has a wide enough skill set to be a complete receiver, I don't really believe in calling him "possession" receiver or whatever else. A lot of times you'll see a receiver being labeled as "dynamic" or conversely not dynamic enough. I think that's a means of saying whether you think a guy can be a complete receiver or not.
Totally understand now I guess I used the term possession receiver to describe a player without deep speed and with good hands; that doesn't necessarily mean they aren't a playmaker though as Evans certainly is a playmaker. I get why he would be labeled a complete receiver.
I envision a possession receiver as one that will make catches but not necessarily break games open. The first guy that comes to mind is Bess.
I just spent quite a bit of time looking at/ charting Melvin Gordon, Lache Seastrunk, and Bishop Sankey. I wrote a whole piece on the data, but I'll just toss out my general thoughts here. As has been stated like 18 times in this thread already, I'm very impressed with Gordon. The way he runs is so smooth and quick. For his playing style and size, he's actually pretty good at getting extra yardage after contact and breaking tackles. On my elusive scale from last year he'd be elite near J. Franklin and Gio Bernard. I have him with 10 broken tackles right now. Unfortunately I can't compare him directly to the players from last year on my elusive metric because I was using the STATS ICE data then and now I'm just hand charting so they don't compare 1:1. I find the STATS ICE data I was using to be very conservative in a lot of different things like broken tackles, yards after contact, pass rush pressuress, etc. While it's more work, I'm much more happy charting with my own standards. I digress. My only concern is his running between the tackles/ third down running. He averages a nice 7 yards on inside runs, but it's all on first and second down. Over the 80 carries I have for him, he only ran on third down 5 times and gained 12 yards. That's obviously not the role Wisconsin has for him, but I'd still like to see it to be comfortable. Obviously Wisconsin runs a bunch of TE/FB sets, I have averaging 10.8 yards when following his TEs and 7.14 yards when not. It's good that he's still getting quality yardage when not running behind the factory of TEs up there. I also don't know how to feel about the sweep Wisconsin runs with him routinely. Does it just inflate his numbers or is the running ability he showcases on those a translatable skill set? Seastrunk is really interesting. He too does well on the extra yardage, however a lot of his yards after contact are inflated by an 80 yard run where 76 yards were after contact. Even when factoring that out, he's still broken 6 tackles on a limited amount of carries. Obviously his speed and physical ability is excellent, you'd expect him to be a strict outside runner. However 66% of his runs have been inside runs and he's averaged a nice ~8 yards per carry on them. Like Gordon, he's never used on third downs - I have maybe 1 carry on third down in 50 rushing attempts. Some may ding him for playing in a wide-open, pass happy spread like Baylor's, but I think he shows the ability to translate that. I had listed Sankey as someone I was interested in, but not necessarily convinced of. When I calculated his elusiveness metric with the STATS data it was pretty average, but I've seen a bunch of draft sites list him as the top RB prospect. His yards after the contact is pretty average and would have even been average on the conservative data from last year. Some people will point to him as a more well-rounded back. He has experience rushing on third down, averaging 4 yards on third and short situations, unlike Gordon and Seastrunk. I think well-rounded may end up being a euphemism for average. He's below-average running inside and solid running outside. Against 5 man boxes he averaged 5.4 yards, which is solid but nothing to write home about. You'd think he would do better when there's a 1:1 blocker to defender ratio. I even left out the Arizona/ASU games which will pull these numbers down. Not sure I'm convinced on Sankey. Here's the link to the entire piece, it's got some of the same stuff, but with more charts and data and stuff: http://secondroundstats.com/2013/10/22/2014tier1rbs/
What you found is pretty consistent with what I've found on tape with Seastrunk, Gordon and Sankey. The tape never really spoke to me on Bishop Sankey. I'm not sure he's a special runner. However, Lache Seastrunk reminds me so much of a Philadelphia-style runner like LeSean McCoy or Brian Westbrook. Melvin Gordon is explosive in the extreme and could have a very bright future, reminds me of like a Cordarrelle Patterson but at tailback. I have Seastrunk and Gordon in the top group and then everyone else after them. The one thing that makes me nervous about Seastrunk is the statistic you brought up about his YPC dropping all the way to sub-4.0 against 7 man fronts. That's the perception he's going to have to fight in order to make it in the NFL, that he's a typical spread scat back that won't be able to do what he did in college at the NFL level because the spaces will condense a lot. However, one thing you can bring up as a counter to that is the fact that as you say most of his carries come inside the tackles and he gains a huge amount of yards on those runs. I have a feeling that the scouts will rank the position Melvin Gordon and then Lache Seastrunk.
Would you say that yards after contact is what separates the "great" runners from the "good" runners in today's game? We have moved far from the days where your runners were evaluated based on how many times they can carry the football to how many yards they gain rushing to yards per carry. I think yards after contact is a potentially great metric to use as a separating factor among the running backs in the NFL. That metric is a good evaluation on both the runners' ability to break tackles as well as his ability to make tacklers miss him. PFF calculates an elusive rating for running backs. This rating takes into account their pass receptions as well. When you are looking at total yards and yards per carry, some runners have more help than others when it comes to linemen, passing game, etc. Also, volume stats are near useless to me when it comes to evaluating a player. So, with yards after contact and elusive rating, I think we could be on the verge of developing something that allows us to somewhat objectively grade the player's actual talent....what he can do on his own. The potential pitfalls of this metric is that it could very well be something that falls victim of the small sample size and may need to be measured over a period of years. Looking at PFF's numbers, the top 5 runners relative to elusive rating are: 1. Adrian Peterson 2. Marshawn Lynch 3. DeMarco Murray 4. Alfred Morris 5. Reggie Bush Over the past 5 years, Peterson has consistently been among the league's best relative to elusive rating. Looking at Miami, Lamar Miller averaged 2.75 yards after contact as a rookie and had a 33 ER. That's down to 1.81 and 16.7 this year. Daniel Thomas averaged 2.33 yards after contact and had a 30 rating in 2012. In 2013, he is averaging 2.38 yards after contact and has an elusive rating of 62.2. In fact, if you expand the criteria to include running backs of have gotten 25% or more of the team's overall carries, Daniel Thomas is actually 6th in the NFL in elusive rating. Is it possible that what the coaching staff is seeing in Daniel Thomas right now that the fans are not seeing is the fact that, with a very bad offensive line, he is currently doing more on his own than Lamar Miller?
I think so. That's the only thing a running back has that's really independent from an O-line. It's a game of inches and if you're pushing for extra yardage and breaking tackles, that's what you have to value in a RB - otherwise you're dependent on how well John Jerry can get into space to block. I mentioned this in another thread a while back, but a while back in June when I had a chance to talk to Mark Dominik he mentioned that one of his key factors in drafting Doug Martin was his ability to break tackles. Really to him, one of the most important things when looking at a RB's running were the broken tackles and yards after contact because it showed their particular skill set. I'm sure if he's thinking like that, other coaches and GMs are thinking the same. Maybe that's what Ireland thought when he watched Daniel Thomas at K-State. Although I know draft analysts had nailed Thomas for his upright running style, so who knows?
makes sense. just look at Zac Stacy in StLouis. His numbers don't stand out but he's getting more done behind a bad oline than Richardson, Pead, or Cunningham b/c he's running harder, breaking more tackles, pushing the pile better, and finishing with forward lean to where he's consistently getting more done after contact even though the yards per carry average is still low thanks to the blocking.
I think an analysis of a tailback will naturally weight his ability to create yards after contact pretty heavily. Tackle-breaking is a separate but related issue you look pretty closely at. But it's really just one piece of the puzzle. My approach with that position is closer to the Bill Parcells approach. If they gain yards, then they're good. It's just a position you CANNOT nail down in terms of what you're looking for, or some kind of prototype. The problem with weighting yards after contact too much is you're going to end up with skewed results. The following were the top 10 tailbacks in 2008 (qualified by playing time) ranked in order of yards after contact per carry: 1. DeAngelo Williams 2. Derrick Ward 3. Correll Buckhalter 4. J.J. Arrington 4. Jonathan Stewart 4. Brandon Jackson 7. Michael Turner 7. Jerious Norwood 9. Brandon Jacobs 9. Earnest Graham You'd take maybe only 4 out of those 6 players on your team and think to yourself, man I've got a really good running back. And it's not like in subsequent years the top 10 got any higher quality. In 2009 you see guys like Jason Snelling, Felix Jones, Justin Forsett, Michael Bush, Beanie Wells, Ronnie Brown and Pierre Thomas on the list. A lot of guys that teams consider to be backups in the NFL. When I'm looking at a running back it definitely has to be an all-encompassing view. It starts with a broad identification of what kind of back he is based on obvious strengths and weaknesses (size, speed, power, style, etc). It starts there because the NFL does take all types of players at that spot. From there you have to sort of determine much more up close whether he has the goods to be that particular type of player at the next level. That's where you look at tackle-breaking ability and yards after contact. If he's the type of runner that needs a whole lot of that stuff, you need to see a whole lot of that stuff. If he's not, maybe you don't. A big one to look at is decision-making and the quickness of decision-making in the backfield as the runner is taking the handoff. I do a lot of pauses in the tape at certain key moments in the handoff to see what the runner was seeing on the play and determine what was the quality of his instincts as far as picking his hole, as well as how quickly he identified problems in the blocking. These are especially important for zone runners. You look at open field ability, open field instincts, pad level...really too many things to just rattle off in one go. Kind of underlying all this you have to make a determination about whether he's just a yard gainer or if he's something more. The guys that make it in the NFL definitely have "wow" factor. You can't just see a consistent yard gainer. You have to see "wow" factor. If I've made mistakes at the position in the past (and I have, plenty), I find that a good number of them involved losing sight of the "wow" factor and whether this guy was really just competent at the next level, or actually interesting. From there you start tacking on the fringe pieces of the story in terms of pass catching skill, blocking skill, fumbling, durability, etc. Some would have durability at the very top. I understand that. But it's such a random prediction I disagree with placing it high in the evaluation pecking order because it's one of the "scores" I'd have the least faith in actually being accurate. The same is really true of blocking which is why I call it a fringe piece to the story. Fumbling is another thing that I know many would disagree with placing at the fringe but I think it's very important while at the same time being a separate line of evaluation that essentially functions as a kill switch. You kind of either decide this guy is OK to work with or you decide he's off your board because he's a fumbler. I don't think there's any in-between, and so that's why I include it amongst the fringe pieces of the story.
Admittedly, I have never watched James Hurst (LT, North Carolina) play football for. I've watched 45 seconds of one video of him against South Carolina and made the following conclusion, which can be preserved for posterity (or ridicule): Not a left tacklle.
I just realized that the face I made at the computer screen while watching Hurst release out on screen passes was pretty much the face I would make if I were to be unexpectedly shown old lady private parts.
Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo of Eastern Illinois reminds me of a combination between Matt Moore and Trent Green. You want to talk about quick and nimble feet for a quarterback, Garoppolo's got them. That's where he reminds me of Green. He's got a boxer's feet, punches that ball out quick. Very nimble back there, execution-wise. Just the total foot-to-fingertip weight transfer process on him, extremely quick and very impressive. If he's consistent with that it could lead to consistent accuracy which is what makes a pro quarterback happen. His stature and the quality of the ball he throws reminds me of Matt Moore. He's not throwing the football in a manner that's going to really impress you as far as velocity, trajectory or spin. The accuracy is good though.
