Darlington: Dolphins exploring trade for a running back

What are the maintenance fees?

 

Unfortunately no. You could expect that an increase in that activity might be reflected in increase play-action tendencies but the play-action data only extends back to 2012.

But I think you said it, there's no schematic secret here...I think the bookends do just need to play better.

I didn't mention it, but I did a study of all offensive lines as well as tight ends and backs from 2008 through 2013. There were 192 individual offenses in the study (32 teams multiplied by 6 seasons).

Add up the total pressures given up by the offensive tackles and divide by the number of pass attempts, the Dolphins' tackles in 2013 rank #174 out of 192. That's 91st percentile. The interior offensive line ranks #138 of 192.

The total amount of pressure given up per play by he OLs, TEs and RBs ranks #172 of 192.

If you were to measure the pressure given up by Green Bay's tackles over the first five games, it would have ranked #190 out of 192. If you made the break point where I mentioned before which was after the 9th game of the season for Green Bay that year, the tackles would have ranked #185 out of 192. However during the last 7 games of that season the tackles would have ranked #84 out of 192. That's a huge jump in effectiveness, from 21.09% pressure let up by tackles per drop to 13.55% pressure let up by the tackles per drop. That essentially accounts for nearly 100% of the drop in total pressure I mentioned from 34.8% to 27.0%.

I wasn't just whistling dixie when I said the improvement for the Packers that year came from the offensive tackles. For guys like Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Tannehill who have the legs to escape pressure, having your tackles do a poor job blocking takes away their escape routes.

 

That doesn't appear to have been the case in GB. An increase in no-huddle would generally lead to an increase in number of plays. During the first 9 games the Packers had 40.6 dropbacks per game and in the last 7 games they had 39.0 dropbacks per game. Like I said though the run blocking percentage only raised from like 40% to 41% so there wasn't an increase in plays.

I think the more you drill the more you're just going to find that the big delta was the tackles played a lot better.

 

They're kind of featuring him right now. He and Khiry Robinson appear to be the 1-2 punch. He could continue complaining that he's not the 1-punch but good luck trying to be that anywhere in the NFL because the entire NFL goes with a 1-2 punch at that position.

 

Well, unless they plan on going no huddle and moving the pocket 6 to 8 times a game I don't see a solution if they plan on playing the same way..

From listening to the interviews over the bye, it sounds like they plan on engaging a more mobile pocket...we'll see I guess, I mean I think it would help the problem.

 

It's going to kind of be an "all of the above" approach, IMO.

1. Tyson Clabo is on notice that he'll be replaced if he doesn't play better.
2. The Dolphins are looking at line shakeups regardless.
3. Ryan Tannehill is being coached to get rid of the ball faster in certain situations.
4. They're re-committing to the ground game to keep defenses from pinning their ears back.
5. They'll probably engage a few more roll-outs and moving pockets.

Another thing to keep in mind is that 11 of Ryan Tannehill's sacks came on 3rd down. The coaches aren't likely to care about that. Unless you're on a very narrow 10 yard patch of grass between the opponent's 25- and 35-yard lines, a sack on 3rd down is not much different from an incomplete pass on 3rd down.

There's a possibility that Tannehill is actually coached to play turtle and cover up the football under duress on 3rd down, because the last thing you want to do on that down is turn the football over.

It's the 13 sacks on 1st and 2nd down that they likely care about because one of those probably directly leads to a drive-stall about 30-40% of the time. So they can reduce those 13 sacks on 1st and 2nd down by running the ball more, running more boot action, working with Tannehill on throwing the ball away or getting out of danger, etc.

 

It is notable to me that Aaron Rodgers legs and pocket expertise was not helping him. I'm still waiting for anyone to answer how well Rodgers did in the pocket in his first year or two starting

 

I don't know how many 3rd downs Tannehill is converting right now but I know from a PFF article in January that median percentage for a QB is around 37%.

I also know Tannehill's completed 32 of 50 passes with a 13.6 yards per completion average. If you add back the sacks you're looking at probably upper half of the league 3rd down conversion rate including the sacks.

So the 3rd down sacks are not likely to be viewed as a problem like I said unless they're in that small patch of 10 yards between the opponent's 25 and 35 yard lines.

 

By what measure?

 

Eye test would be OK.

 

I've never thought to myself Rodgers footwork and awareness were even a Smunch of a problem, even in college...he's so quick with his footwork and upper body .

 

No way. The Saints think they can win a Super Bowl THIS YEAR. They wouldn't sell for a future asset.

 

How well is Jason Peters playing right now? Allen Barbre? Jordan Gross?

 

I'll clarify this by saying that I'm interested in parallels between Rodgers' development and Tanny's. I think it would be helpful to manage our expectations. More to the point, when Rodgers was getting destroyed in '09, was he still learning what to do in the pocket the way Tanny is or was he already good in the pocket and just getting killed by bad blocking? IDK, maybe the comparison isn't helpful at all, but it might give clues to how Phiblin is managing him

 

So here's the way I see it. You can have either Cameron Erving at 20-22 or you can trade for a few veterans at a reasonable price and then draft a cornerback around 30-32 to replace Patterson. That's 5m of the cash you saved on linemen recouped.

 

just making sure.

 

I would rather have a safety at 30-32.

 

I can't really make one up out of thin air though. You go with the draft class' talent.

 

Or you could just forego the veterans, and pocket an extra $5M. Thats pretty much the choice Miami has had to make since Ross bought the team.

 

Miller isn't the problem. He's a breakaway runner but doesn't get the chance to break one when we give him 9 carries then abandon the run game or put in Thomas for the next 2 qrts. Every time it looks like miller has a good run or starts to warm up we yank him and put tannehill in 3rd and longs due to 3 straight passing plays.

 

It's hard Maynard, for me anyways, Rodgers sat for three years, and it seems as though our coaches are actually teaching this dude to play from the pocket and inhibit the instincts he does have to bail, no matter the consequences..so when I say hard, it's very hard to decipher how these teachings are affecting that line Qb's needs to know as to when to escape, my head spins when trying to think about whether these teachings while might be putting him in compromising positions now, maybe are gonna pay off later, maybe this is how your supposed to take a great set of skills by a Qb, break it all down, and build it up systematically, this is at least where my hope lyes..

If I look in isolation at the weaknesses of the Qb, as best I can without being able to quantify the lack of time and how that relates to his weaknesses, I see a player with poor footwork in the pocket, poor awareness of where the rush is coming from, a lack of feel for where the lanes will open up, and a lack of lower body quickness..

 

Based on the play by play from nfl.com:

• He dropped back 61 times on 3rd down and we failed 38 times (37,7 % success rate).
• 11 sacks with 2 fumbles. He took one sack in FG range (LOS 23) for -8 yards.
• 2 interceptions and 1 spike.
• 23 conversions, 20 first downs and 3 touchdowns.

He completed 34 passes, obviously got the first down on 23 of them. (67 %)
He didn't scramble once (!) but got one first down on a designed run.

 

In terms of linemen we could maybe go after Jeremy Parnell from the Cowboys, particularly if we were willing to give up a player? He's 27 and i didn't think he looked that bad last season but he's now behind Doug Free, not sure what his contract is like though.

 

I'd like us to actually commit to running the ball first, before declaring our RBs inadequate.

I've been questioning our coaching staff's judgment on a few things. Their insistence Lamar Miller wasn't better than DT and that their effectiveness was due to opportunities is baffling. I'd write it off as coach speak, but their splits during the first few games confirmed it.

The last game or two they wised up, but still, on what planet does DT and LM look the same. If there are other reasons for splitting them I guess that's possible. But the decision look Legadon't'ish.

 

In a passing league, its not just about a running back that can run the ball. That is the problem here IMO.

 

Daniel Thomas is much better in pass protection, and is a better receiver. Lamar Miller might be one of the most overrated players in recent history. He's a good runner, but thats about it.

 

"Much better" is overstating the blocking advantage, significantly.

And I don't believe Daniel Thomas is a better receiver at all. I think Daniel Thomas isn't asked to run the same routes and catch the same passes Lamar Miller is, and if Miller were to be running the same patterns as Daniel Thomas he would produce the same amount Thomas does. You never see Daniel Thomas running a wheel route and asked to catch the vertical ball in stride. Miller failed to haul in one pass like that during the regular season and another during the preseason, but Daniel Thomas wouldn't even be asked to do it because he's a much more limited receiver.

 

Much better? Last time I checked the difference in rankings were immaterial (like sucky, and a little suckier). If the ratings changed after I last checked, I'll update that.

Lamar was overrated, but he's clearly the better runner.

 

Right, they're asked to do different things. Primarily because Lamar Miller struggles with making reads and figuring out what he needs to do.

 

Difference in rankings? Who's rankings exactly?

 

pff.

 

Mjd would come for the right price

 

According to what numbers? Just from watching the games, that would not appear to be the case this year.

 

Why in hell would you try to trade for a good running back when you already had one?
Makes zero sense.

 

Great points!

As I have been saying, I don't think there is anything we can do from a schematic standpoint to make John Jerry and Tyson Clabo better at what they are doing. If they are not winning one on one match ups right now, they aren't going to win them with wider splits. Our blocking right now is a personnel problem.

 

Thomas is very clearly NOT a better pass protector than Lamar Miller, and the data on this shows this to be the case. Daniel Thomas is directly responsible for TWO of Tannehill's fumbles this year.

 

We need one quickly or its going to get ugly

 

I think the issue here is assigning what someone's responsibilities are. You noted when someone was "directly" responsible, but how is that determined? Most likely because Thomas attempted to block someone and failed. But what about the data on someone not even identifying the right person to block, or whether to block at all? Theres usually at least one play per game where Tannehill is having to tell Miller that he's lined up in the wrong spot. You don't see that with Thomas. I find it hard to believe that anyone recording data is tracking these type of things. Those are just the times when someone lines up wrong, and has it correct. Its within reason to believe this happens more often than just the times the QB is able to correct it. Its very easy to do the wrong thing, and have someone observing believe they did the right thing. Its also impossible to know how this affects the playcalling with either player in the game.

 

Which is why PFF is at best a, "Best guess." Website. I like their work, however they shouldn't be used as the bible.

Edit: Idiom.

 

When you are talking about things like RBs in pass pro, it gets pretty murky, especially in terms of decision making. I wouldn't trust any type of quantitative measure of decision making.