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Draft Tek mock 4/2/13

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by jim1, Apr 4, 2013.

  1. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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  2. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    This will give all the Austin fans a warm fuzzy
     
  3. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    There's worse things that they could do than get the most explosive player in the draft. Smaller player granted, but much thicker/more muscular than I originally thought, more in line with Harvin than Ginn.

    Lane Johnson makes sense if he's available, I like Watson in the 2nd rd if Martin goes to LT, and at #12 if Lotuleilei is available I don't think that you pass on him. although I really wouldn't want to use that pick on a DT. Maybe Xavier Rhodes, who knows. This just isn't a very strong top 15 draft, we'll have to make the best of it.
     
  4. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    No way I could pass up Star for the next potential Dexter McCluster after signing three expensive Wrs. Especially with Starks and Soliai with a year remaining. DT is so important in Ireland's world, he's used the franchise pick twice there
     
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  5. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Are you seriously comparing Tavon Austin to Dexter McCluster?
     
  6. Da 'Fins

    Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    I would be "shocked [there is gambling in this establishment]" if Star were on the board and Miami passed on him (just as far as talent ranking) even though I love the Austin pick. But, I also doubt Star drops out of the top 10.

    I really will be interested to see where Dion Jordan actually goes. Nearly every mock has him in the top 5 but I think he could easily fall to 20 or further.
     
  7. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Pretty believable mock through 12 imo, could see all of those easily. Tough choice between Tavon and Star, I don't think you can go wrong either way really, but hard to pass on that kind of playmaking potential. I think it is easier to find a DT elsewhere to replace a Soliai/Starks than add someone like Austin.

    My top four for Miami all went in a cluster right around us - Austin, Star, Werner, Vaccaro. Interesting to see.
     
  8. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    Same size, electric college careers. Austin is faster. Both will be complementary (slot, return, scat back) pieces in the NFL.

    Color me impressed with Austin is the best receiver on his own college team with better vertical ability and who can break a tackle.

    A lot of guys are seeing once in a generation talent here. I see a guy who is only slightly better than Ryan Swope (round 2 or 3) for us
     
  9. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    I don't know about once in a generation, but his speed, quicks, acceleration, change of direction, etc. are rare for sure. I like Swope, but he's not in the same zip code as per those things except speed.

    As per McCluster, he's not as fast and not as explosive imo. I don't live and die by the combine #s, but he ran a 4.58. Just not the same player.

    A small player (albeit relatively thick and muscular) is usually a hard sell, but he fits a need for us as per adding speed and the ability to win 1 on 1 matchups. If it were a stronger top 10-20 draft that would be great, but given the relative dearth of talent and the flawed pass rusher class, Austin stacks up pretty well imo. Personally I see him as less of a potential bust than Patterson, and although it would be nice if he were bigger, I'd be ok with Austin at #12- swapping him for Bess in the slot is a pretty big upgrade imo, huge increase in speed and explosiveness.
     
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  10. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    I personally think worst case for Jordan is the Saints at 15.
     
  11. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    The only similarities between McCluster and Austin are size. That's it.
     
  12. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    I'm often the counterpoint on this issue, but I do like Austin. It's not like I feel he is undraftable, But I value him as a late first rounder or early second rounder. Of the guys in the neighborhood we pick, there's no way I can pass up Star, Jarvin Jones, Milner, Lane Johnson, Rhodes or Werner for Tavon Austin.

    For the Dolphins and the WCO, I have Patterson and Allen ahead of him, and Swope is practically a coin flip. The familiarity with Tannehill and the system is very attractive there.

    I think if people go back and look at Ryan Swope and forget the likely draft position for a moment, you see an equal to better athlete with better size and vertical ability. Austin has better YAC ability and vision and shuttle.

    Austin is a guy you throw short do, body catch it, and let him work. That's basically what he presents as a receiver. I think many of those holes and angles he saw in college will close up quick in the NFL.
     
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  13. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    All interesting points, but in this post modern NFL with its emphasis on the passing game you have to win 1 on 1 matchups. We have been so lousy at that, and Wallace will certainly help, Austin will help even more.
     
  14. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    In order to think of Tavon Austin as another Dexter McCluster you have to think Tavon has been primarily a tailback at the college level which, anyone that's watched him for four years, knows he wasn't until the Oklahoma game in 2012. Prior to that, he was a straight up slot receiver.
     
  15. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    OH, and I love Ryan Swope's ability as a receiver. The history of concussions concern me. He's reportedly had at least four concussions. What kind of long term effects is this going to have on him, and will it cut his career short? No concussions, and I wouldn't hesitate to take Ryan Swope in the 2nd round.

    His playing style is fearless though, and it's probably going to shorten his career. I do love the way he doesn't stop when he catches the football. He doesn't slow down. He runs through the catch whether he is about to take a big hit or if he has open field to roam.
     
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  16. ATLFINFAN

    ATLFINFAN Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Being the novice that I am on the draft, I really don't get this outlook. I have read, over and over, that the talent in this draft is a top 5 or MAYBE 10 and then the next 50 or so are about equal. If the next 50 or so are equal, how is Austin at 12 not.........VALUE? Under those conditions, he SHOULD be value from 11 to 55 or 60, even though he won't make it out of the first round. Every thing changed, VALUE WISE, when the rookie draft cap came in. The definition of VALUE has CHANGED. It used to be that you didn't draft an OG really high because of what you would have to pay them per their position. That isn't the case anymore. IF the OG is ranked in the top 15, chances are he will be drafted in the top 15, now.
     
  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I'm not as big a fan of Ryan Swope. Between the concussions, the fact that he doesn't play as fast as he times on the field, doesn't show explosiveness to me...I'd probably look elsewhere to get what I need.
     
  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Incidentally it's unfathomable to me why Draftek gets its own thread every time they run a new mock. It's been by far the absolute worst mock drafting site that I've seen throughout this entire draft season. Whenever they come up with one that is even mildly realistic, it's notable.
     
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  19. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    If we evaluate Austin as a receiver against his toughest six secondaries in their best year, and do the same for Swope, you get 100 yards and a TD from each. Swope has a higher per catch average in those contests, I imagine more of Austin's yards after the catch (I understand like 70% of his receiving yards came after the catch). I would love to see yards after contact for each guy, but have been unable to find that.

    Anyway, my comfort with Swope is why I'm so cavalier about passing on Austin in round 1.
     
  20. ATLFINFAN

    ATLFINFAN Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    IMHO, everyone is stretching to find a comparison to Austin and they are having trouble with it, except for Harvin. They don't want to compare them because Harvin has been successful. Harvin is a little bigger but Austin is probably a little faster AND quicker.
     
  21. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I don't think this is fair. There has been as much over-hype as there has been under. Almost reminds me of when Reggie Bush came out.

    As always, the truth lies somewhere between the 2 opinions.
     
  22. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    It's because they do the mocks so often, that's about it.
     
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  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think if Tavon Austin is not all that is promised he will very much resemble Dexter McCluster. But if he is, he'll resemble Percy Harvin.
     
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  24. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    The key difference is Harvin can and does run the vertical routes to gain yardage. He's not just a slot guy. Austin is a guy you throw a 5-8 yard pass to and expect to get the next 50.
     
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  25. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Problem with drafting Star L is he has no clear path to Ireland's 600 snaps out of a #1 pick.

    Tackle and Cb does, Wr, not so much, Lb is a maybe.
     
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  26. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Tavon Austin has run plenty of vertical routes as well as outbreaking and in breaking routes in the intermediate and deep zones.
     
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  27. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Even if that were the case, and I don't think it is, combine that with Wallace and you have quite a 1-2 combo to keep defenses busy and on their heels.
     
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  28. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Not a WR, but maybe a decent Austin comparison is Warrick Dunn size wise? Guy was overall a healthy and productive player despite small size. Big impact, and at a tougher position.
     
  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Not really.
     
  30. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    I'll be honest, I haven't watched any of Austin's film so I can't give an opinion on him. I got my man crush on Johnson during the Senior Bowl practices. In my opinion he was the best all around lineman that week. Add in his combine numbers and he just looks like the most logical pick for us. If the rumors are true and we're considering trading a 2nd plus a 2014 pick for Albert, then I'd prefer they use that pick to trade up for Johnson instead of giving up all of that plus a huge contract.
     
  31. CANDolphan

    CANDolphan Well-Known Member

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    What's your view on Austin vs Bailey? Do you believe, as popular opinion seems to be, that Austin brought coverage away from Bailey so much that Bailey was simply just a guy and putting up numbers as a result?
     
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  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    No I don't believe that at all. I think that's silly, to be honest.

    I think Stedman Bailey is a terrific receiver. He and Tavon Austin are different kinds of players. I've got them neck and neck. Based on what Miami has already done I think Austin is a better fit. If you're considering Bailey to be just a slot guy then you have to rate Austin considerably higher. If you need someone that can play every position and/or the outside, IMO I don't know how you end up with Austin rated higher. That's just the truth.
     
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  33. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    wrong wrong wrong
     
  34. CANDolphan

    CANDolphan Well-Known Member

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    So am I reading this correct in that you're saying if I'm a team in the NFL and I need

    A) A slot receiver - I'm going with Austin

    but if I want

    B) A slot receiver who can play lots of boundary - I'm going with Bailey?

    I wasn't sure how to differentiate the two, to be honest. I love Bailey as a WR. Everything he does, I love. I think you were one of the first people to say he's like a hair slower Steve Smith and since reading that, I can't un-see it. I love the way he attacks... everything.

    Is there any relevance to all of this "Miami wants 5 guys who play every position at WR" stuff? I'm hearing that and it's why I'm looking at guys like CP or S. Bailey... and I can't stop hoping to see Bailey called @ #54.

    If you're Jeff Ireland, going into draft day... what are you doing? Are you ignoring both of them and going with someone else? Are you grabbing Bailey later? I have to admit... the idea of adding another weapon on offense is tempting but I see all these holes (present and future) and I just... worry.
     
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  35. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What are you not seeing in his game D-fin?
     
  36. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Disagree again.
    Swope had 10 catches, 81 yards vs LSU.
    Texas: 3 catches, 33 yards.
    Oklahoma: 8 catches, 104, 1 TD.

    Austin vs a better LSU secondary in 2011 (Mathieu, Claiborne, Brooks, Reid) : 11 catches, 187 yards.
    Texas (vs Vaccaro): 10 catches, 102 yards, 1 TD.
    Oklahoma: in the midst of a 344 yard/2 TD rushing day, managed to squeeze in 4 catches for 82 yards.


    Swope had 5 100+ yard games with a high of 141 and averaged 65 receiving yards & 0.57 TD per game in 2012.
    Swope had 4 games under 20 yards and 6 games of 75+.

    Austin had 6 100+ yard receiving games with a high of 215 and averaged 99.2 & .92 TD per game...... BUT he would've had more 100+ games and a greater per game average if he weren't busy being utilized as a running back during the final 4 games after Geno Smith hit a bit of a rut.
    Austin had 0 games under 20 yards and 10 games of 75+.
    All total Austin had 9 100+ yard games, averaged 149 scrimmage yards/game, and 1.15 TD/game, essentially doubling Swope's production.
     
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  37. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    That's nonsense. We have 2 DTs in contract years, and we had our current guys (Soliai, Starks, Odrick) seeming to wear down b/c they played a ton of snaps. There are more than enough snaps to go around this season, and there certainly will be plenty in 2014 when Star's a full time starter.
     
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  38. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Not quite. If you need a primarily slot player period you've got to go with Austin. But if you have needs on the boundary and whomever you take here needs to be a guy that can satisfy them, you don't take Austin. You take Bailey.

    1. Joe Philbin is the guy that said that he wants players that play all positions. He may be full of it. In Green Bay it wasn't like that. Donald Driver was a slot player. That's what he was. Try and dress up the pig all you want it's still a pig. And he can talk nice about guys being able to play in the slot as well as perimeter, but Jordy Nelson and James Jones were there a bare 8 or 9% of the time. So I'm calling bull sh-t on that whole speech.

    2. Loaded question on what I'd do. You're giving me an off season halfway executed. If I'm Jeff Ireland here and I've inherited everything that's already been done, none of it was mine but I've got to live with it, then yeah I give some thought to Austin at 12. Certainly. Why? Because in Mike Wallace you've given Ryan Tannehill a type of go-to guy that he's not necessarily shown a comfort level with either at Texas A&M or in Miami. Nor has Mike Wallace shown a comfort level with being the kind of go-to guy his contract calls for him to be. Nor has Joe Philbin shown a comfort level with the idea of a go-to guy period. Unless all those years of talk were just more bull sh-t which I suppose is possible. Add Tavon Austin to the mix and you give Tannehill a Ryan Swope type player that he doesn't have to feel bad about relying on even during the most important times in the game because, let's face it, it's Tavon '****ing' Austin and he's the 12th overall pick. Mike Wallace suddenly has to realize he's not the only big fish in the pond. The coaches know it. The defenses know it. Really changes things. But the irony of all this is if you knew all this you wouldn't have signed Wallace in the first place because you know that what he's actually giving you could be had cheaper. So that's why it's a loaded question.
     
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  39. CANDolphan

    CANDolphan Well-Known Member

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    That's an interesting take, Chris. Thanks.
     
  40. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    I used 2011 Swope because of Tannehill and took six games, and 2012 Austin, to arrive at that figure. 2012 Swope had an early season learning curve with his new QB which depressed the numbers a bit. As receivers during their best years, they are more or less equal in tough matchups. But you have to give the nod to Austin in any head to head regardless of year because of that yard after catch ability. But the difference is not enormous on the receiver side. Plus Swope is bigger and had a slightly better combine (depending on how you value the shuttle) but, as KB noted, comes with a concussion history.

    You gotta just throw away the RB stuff for Austin, it ain't gonna happen in the NFL. Randall Cobb, for example, got 10 carries last season and 2 in his first. I don't see it.

    After that, you're paying the difference between round 1 and 3 in Austin's return ability. I would quite happily go get Tannehill his favorite receiver and a guy that already knows this offense with his eyes closed and let some team trade up with us for Austin.

    I'm not certain either guy comes in and beats the pants off Davone Bess either. We all assume the draft pick will, but I'm not sure.
     

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