Almost all CBs get burned a lot. All these passing yards and passing records being put up the last several years is not a coincidence. Each year you have one or two guys that a great year at CB and then come back down to the pack. Other than Revis, I can't recall the last guy who had more than three good years at CB since the rule interpretations were changed. Davis and Smith are not bad CBs, in fact they're probably above average. But people didn't recognize that b/ they saw them beat about half of the time. That's what happens to almost all CBs in today's NFL. People think that if we draft a CB at #12 we'll see some big improvement in our pass D and frankly that's very unlikely. Our pass D will primarily depend on the performance of our pass rush and the Ss. You still need good players at CB obviously, but the difference in impact between a CB you pay a premium pick for and another talented CB is marginal.
On a pure talent to price (how high you have to pick him) ratio I think Johnthan Banks and CK's boy Hayden are the best values at CB in this draft.
I watch Rhodes and think to myself that I'm quite sure he can play both man and zone coverages. He has length and so he plays press really well but I donesn't mean zone will be beyond the guy. I would be happy if he goes with the 12th pick.
I don't think signing a talented corner coming off a severe injury should change our draft plan. BPA doesn't change based on our roster. if Rhodes fits what we're looking for, then we should take him regardless. He is younger and cheaper than grimes. Grimes is only on a one year deal. Unlikely he is around next year.
Like Da'fins said, if he isn't an elite blue chip prospect, I ain't going corner at 12, if the mindset is adamant to get a hi level talented corner, then drop from the 12 th spot and pick yourself up another valuable pick, the value at corner is not at 12.
In most year's, I would agree. However, this is an unusual draft in the sense that there is very little difference between #1 and #10 in this draft, and their is very little difference in #11 and #42 in this draft, IMO. If you go into the draft with a serious need at cornerback, and you have Xavier Rhodes stacked in the middle 10-15 picks (11-26 or so), then take him. Let's do a rough draft of stacking the board real quick: Top 10, in no particular order: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah If that's my top ten, and one of those guys are available, I take him. Now, let's look at what could be in the next 15 or so players: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse Matt Barkley, QB, USC Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU Bjorn Werner, DE, Florida State Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington Kenny Vaccaro, FS, Texas Out of that second group, if you want to exclude the QBs, is there really anyone that stands out as so much better than the other players that you could justify not taking the guy you want with your pick?
I agree with your philosophy about drafting certain players if they drop,regardless of the desperate need we have at corner.. I feel like Trufant is too close in talent level to commit to Rhodes at 12.. I feel like there will be better players at 12, like Eifert, that I would want over Rhodes, I understand the desperation we are feeling finding a corner, but I think I can fill the position with a similar caliber of player a bit later than 12..bottom line, Rhodes isn't good enough to make me sacrifice my leverage in the draft, even though I need a plug and play corner..I've got to hit big on the player at 12, not play it safe.
I just don't see much separation relative to their ability that says it is better to take Rhodes/Trufant at 20 than at 12, and that Eifert is so much better at his position that you can take him at 12 instead of the other. I'm not trying to advocate drafting Rhodes or Trufant or whoever at this point. What I'm saying is this. This is not a draft to get into the mindset that there is a clear BPA (BPA is relative to need regardless). If you want Eifert, take him at 12. If you want Rhodes, take him at 12. If you want Trufant, take him at 12. However, if Patterson, Austin, or Richardson are sitting there, they would draw consideration first, and then I'd be aggressive to make a move to get one of the other later.
Certainly (and this is true of any team) if you really have a player you love at 12 and have him rated as high or higher than other positions at a "need" spot - then take him. While your board is pretty good as far as talent distinctions - others have 11-50 as pretty close - we don't know what Miami thinks, in reality, about these players (they may have Jordan or Carradine or Werner in the 20's or lower). But, I think at CB, I just don't see much differentiation nor need at that position to draft him there - especially with the depth. If you want to upgrade CB you can still trade down to 20 and do that either there or in the 2nd round - that's why it's not a great selection at 12. Eifert would be different because he's the only TE really worth a 1st round pick - the drop of is very significant after that (the other guys are near middle to bottom 2nd rounders, or even lower - depending, of course, on who you talk to). That's significant. That's another reason, along with rafael's observation, there's no way I'd go CB at 12 and will be disappointed if we do. Either get another player or try to trade down. If one of the top 10 falls to 12 (and you still want a CB) there should be trade down partners who see an opportunity. Or, if teams like Minnesota and St. Louis think that each other is looking at a WR they both like - then one or the other could be trade down partners and make an offer you can't refuse.
That could be the case. Nonethless 99 times out of 100, I could give two ****s what height is listed on Pro Football Reference, Rotoworld, a team's website or even NFL.com. I'm going to NFL Draft Scout, who will have the height correct to within an eighth of an inch.
Was Ryan Tannehill not the player they showed the most interest in last year? Much like Tavon Austin, Jeff Ireland attended multiple games of Ryan Tannehill's, even one dating back to his junior year. It was beyond obvious that Jeff had Ryan Tannehill in his sights. In fact, that's probably one of the things that kept Peyton Manning from considering Miami. I'm fairly confident that Jeff was not going to let a short term veteran effect his long term vision of the team. The interest level in Austin is what makes him the obvious pick. You may want to think that they are doing the WVU work to evaluate Bailey, but the fact is, Austin is the one that is being brought to Miami reportedly. I've read no reports of Bailey being brought to Miami. Only reports that Miami has talked to Bailey. The Tavon Austin interest is similar to the Percy Harvin interest, and as I stated in another thread, this is the type of explosive playmaker Jeff Ireland has been wanting to add to the offense.
No. He absolutely wasn't. They showed interest, but not a special amount of interest. Not "the most" interest. They already knew all about him by talking to the coaches they had on staff. Nor was Mike Pouncey a guy they showed "the most" interest in. Hell they saw and talked to Ryan Mallett like five times including bringing him into Davie I think twice. No offense but that's straight up hindsight bull poop. Jeff Ireland attends a lot of games scouting players. It's what he does for a living. Was it "beyond obvious" that the Dolphins were onto Ryan Tannehill? Yes. Was it because they showed him the most interest? NO. It was because we imported wholesale a bunch of the Texas A&M coaching staff onto our own staff. Stedman Bailey has been in Miami all off season. He lives there. And I'm pretty sure he's been to see the Dolphins. Jeff Ireland went to the Pinstripe Bowl. Big deal. His team was already up in the Northeast that weekend and Syracuse-West Virginia were on. There's a dozen draftable players in that game. But you've got this tunnel vision it MUST have been to see Tavon Austin. Bull poop. It could've easily been to see Geno Smith, Ryan Nassib, Stedman Bailey, Shamarko Thomas, Alec Lemon AND Tavon Austin. You have absolutely no empirical evidence that they've shown "the most" interest in Tavon Austin.
That's revisionist history. Jeff Ireland had already targeted Ryan Tannehill before Mike Sherman and the other coaches were added to the staff. He only used them as a resource to reaffirm what he already felt. Jeff didn't suddenly become interested in Tannehill because he had former TAMU coaches on the coaching staff. Tell me, how many mid to late round prospects has Jeff Ireland personally attended games to watch and also done extensive work as far as interviewing, attending private workouts and such? Because that is what most of the other prospects in that game are. Mid to late round guys with the possible exception of a few.
Not according to Gil Brandt, that's for damn sure. Just because Jeff Ireland had already looked at Ryan Tannehill and kind of liked him, doesn't mean he had him "targeted" prior to the coaching staff's arrival. That would've been beyond dumb, by the way...to have your quarterback targeted before you even know what your coaching staff will look like. You tell me. You're the one who claims he's shown "the most" interest in Tavon Austin. PROVE IT. You're not doing a very good job.
If you're going to make a declarative statement of fact that inherently compares one thing to something else, then your evidence for that declaration can't be one-sided. If you're saying that they showed THE MOST interest in certain guys, you must demonstrate that they showed more interest in him than other guys, which means you must have a grip on the interest they showed in all the other guys. Otherwise the statements are just full of poop, which is the case here, IMO.
Meanwhile back at base.......I like Xavier Rhodes an awful lot. This is not news. I have seen A LOT of his tape. He's a local kid born a block away from whatever our stadium is called this afternoon. But don't sleep on Johnthan Banks because someone is going to get a really, really good player.
Ireland did say he was looking at a couple of guys at the CB spot. Further evidence towards the "they want Lane Johnson, but will settle for Xavier Rhodes and sign a RT scenario".
So where is your proof that prior to the arrival of the former TAMU coaches that Ireland only "kind of liked" Tannehill?
Something that usually is a give away of a team's plans is the draft area of their interviews. Miami's interviews and visits at the CB position are in the first and then in the fourth or so. Brandon McGee is a big name on the radar, Milliner, and Rhodes are there. All of those middle round CBs that people may be banking on don't seem to be in their plans. The tackle position is the same, only at the top and then late for depth/middle rounds is there any consideration there. That's a huge give away. The WR position on the other hand looks like a strong possibility for that 40th pick in combo with another pick. DT is a consideration, TE is there, RB to a small degree, and I STRONGLY expect a LB, an ILB at that. I don't remember Miami looking at too many Cs outside of Pouncey in the first round back in 2011.
That takes into account, Brandt's interpretation of Ireland's comments during their private phone conversation. It also takes as definite fact that Ireland was being completely transparent to Brandt regarding his feelings toward Tannehill.
I agree on Richardson and Austin, I agree on taking the player you have conviction about whether that be Eifert, Rhodes, or Trufant , I agree on getting aggressive to get the player that is next on your board later in the round, the only thing I don't agree with is about Eifert, I have him being better at his position than the guys that will probably be available at 12, it's why I have no problem taking him, I've had Eifert and Austin neck and neck for a long time, been focused on them because of our offensive liabilities, what kind of skill set could take this offense to another level, and the probabalilty that my most coveted defenders will not be in play at 12...I could care less that most pundits or fans think that 12 is to soon to take either player, I don't agree with the majority in either case..
I think the Dolphins would see a lot of virtue in both Eifert and Austin too. But I don't think they have either in mind for 12, and Eifert could still be there in the late 1st round to trade back up and get. Austin won't be.
I see what your saying, but if the three tackles are gone before 12, as well as the blue chip defenders ( just in this scenario lets say Werner is gone as well), why not consider arguably the two best offensive skillset payers in the draft? Would like to know what defenders you think will not be taken before 12 that project to be better pros than Austin or Eifert?
Specifically? Pass rushers like Bjoern Werner and Tank Carradine. Perhaps Jarvis Jones as well. We're talking NFL Value. Keep in mind that in the NFL, top value still falls like this in terms of worth: And people wonder why I didn't think a Center should be targeted at 15 overall.
So what you're saying is that we shouldn't be looking at Caleb Sturgis with our 2nd round pick? Now you're just being crazy, CK
Actually boggles my mind that the cap hit for top DEs is higher than top QBs. Seems like a temporary anomaly that will be ironed out shortly. But I do find it not at all coincidental that those are the top two and that DT, RB, S, LB, CB, WR and OT are all ranged fairly tightly below QB and DE...and markedly above OG and TE. Actually I'm a little surprise S isn't in the same grouping with OG and TE. Has been traditionally. Seems like something that has either been temporarily inflated, or is indicative of a secular change.
my post was a bit confusing, just to reiterate, Werner, Richardson lets say will be gone, as well as Jordan, Star, Shariff, would you then take Carradine and Jones over Eifert or Austin?, Carradine and Jones comes with some risks. I'm just trying to prepare that the top D'ends are off the board as well as the tackles, don't see us going guard no matter how good they are, no qbs, i don't feel the value is left at corner so I'm running out of options at 12, this is why I at least keep talking about the two at 12.
The Dolphins were at FSU's Pro Day: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/03/20/3295448/former-florida-state-seminoles.html The Dolphins were also out in force at the University of Miami Pro Day: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/umiami/2013/03/um-pro-day-info-times-per-university-of-miami.html They had 8 folks, including Jeff Ireland, at the UM Pro Day. The Dolphins were also out in force at the Florida International Pro Day.
Jim Turner spent a half hour with Menelik Watson one-on-one? Wow. That does seem pretty significant. It's one thing to interview a guy, or visit with him. Spending a god damn half hour tutoring the guy one on one seems like you're getting an early jump on the coaching job. Turner was a sucker for John Jerry because of his size and power characteristics even though he doesn't quite notch the speed characteristics that I think Joe Philbin likes, or certainly the work ethic characteristics. I could totally see Turner pounding the table for Menelik Watson.
Too many goddamn good players on Florida State. I'm not a fan of the school and never have been. I don't even like their coaching. But between Bjoern Werner, Tank Carradine, Lonnie Pryor, Menelik Watson, E.J. Manuel and Vince Williams...I seem to be in love with everyone they've got. I guess not Rodney Smith or Everett Dawkins. Small consolation, though. Even the guys upcoming, LOVE me some Timmy Jernigan. Really like Lamarcus Joyner and Christian Jones too.
He's incredible. He's athletic, it's there on tape. I don't give a **** what he did in short shorts. Rhodes, Carradine/Werner, Watson go get them...All of them...
Does it seem like the Dolphins are making more of a concerted effort to evaluate the local prospects? I think we saw the first signs of it last year with the drafting of Olivier Vernon and Lamar Miller, and the signing of Brian Tyms as a developmental guy. I would really not be surprised to see three of our first 5 picks used on local guys: Xavier Rhodes, Jonathan Cyprien, and Brandon McGee. It could be more than that if they seriously consider taking Gio Bernard, Stedman Bailey, and Denard Robinson.
