Darlington & Jeremiah: Miami Looking to Trade UP? (speculation)

Where would Miami have to get to for Eddie Lacy?

 

Honestly I respect everyone's opinion here but I think some are so in love with Austin @ #12 they simply won't see the forest for the trees with regards to the overall draft.

 

I think that what we've seen from Miami in the draft since Ireland has been here is that they generally draft from the pool of players they show interest in. When Universal Draft was posting the list of players the team met with/scouted you could pretty much guarantee that the vast majority of picks came from that group. I think it's clear that Ireland has had interest in an Austin type of player in the past and that Ireland has watched him in person on at least three occassions. I would say he is Miami's most obvious selection. Since I've generally not been surprised by Miami's first round picks of late, I fully expect that he'll be our choice this year unless somebody takes him ahead of us.

 

Question 1: Who's our long term answer at slot receiver?
Question 2: Do you know if Ireland has changed his mind about wanting an offensive Xfactor since his crush on Percy Harvin whom he was ready to draft in the 1st round?
Question 3: If Ireland wanted to draft the Xfactor Harvin when the team was deplete in talent and had two 2nd rounders to play with, then why does it seem crazy for him to draft Austin this year when we have one more top 90 pick and far less holes to fill than '09?

Obviously there's a chance someone else is the pick, but to say we can't see the forest for the trees is inaccurate considering Miami and Ireland personally have shown quite a bit of interest in Austin. Plus there's Mr Ross eagerly speaking up about not being done bolstering the offensive firepower as well as Bess being in a contract year. Not to mention we're a Mike Wallace injury away from having another slow, bad, receiving corps with minimal big play ability, and I'm sure that's the last thing Ireland wants.

 

jesus christ man, i hope you knocked on wood after you wrote that, i sure did after i read it

 

Answer 1: Well, see answer #3 down, but if we're leaving him as a slot receiver, #12 is simply too high. Philbin wants a WR who can play all positions, as was stated, no? Austin isn't really the purest version of that in this draft. If we're drafting simply for a slot receiver to upgrade Bess, I see several available in later rounds. I see Swope. I see Bailey. There's your future slot receiver.
Answer 2: This is an opinion question. It's impossible to answer, and it's impossible to have a correct answer to it. You don't know Ireland's thought process here just as I don't, and there's really no two ways around that. We can sit here and argue semantics while debating issues of logic and occam's razor, etc... but I just don't see it. There's not enough evidence that isn't circumstantial IMO with regards to all this "proof" that Austin is the #12 pick. The visits to WVU? I can attribute those to different players over the years. Now, if there's some concrete proof that Ireland was there to see Austin and nobody else (reminder - Jeff Ireland was positioned to move up and draft Brian Quick had he gotten a trade done last year... so I think it's safe to say Ireland was there one or two of those years scouting Brian Quick) then I'll gladly concede this point but as it stands... it doesn't have any merit to it.
Answer 3: That's a great point and a good question - my answer would be simple - Maybe Ireland doesn't view Austin on Harvin's level? Maybe there's other players available that Ireland finds are BPA-worthy. Miami was operating with a #25, not a #12. I mean, if we're operating under the assumption that Ireland had to have Harvin... don't you think it'd be logical that once Harvin was within 5 spots of his draft position, he'd trade up for him? Harvin was taken #22 while we drafted #25. Harvin was seen as the prototype weapon, working the slot and the perimeter as well as the HB role. He worked the perimeter more than Austin did (snap % wise, as I was led to believe) and we have no guarantee that they view Austin as the same level of player. Especially when you consider we're discussing radically different values with regard to the 1st round pick!

I agree with you completely we need to add more offensive firepower, but you can do that besides drafting Austin #12 overall.

I'm not sure we have a similar definition of "miss the forest for the trees" here, because your response confuses me. Really could be my mistake though! Idioms aside, My point is that you guys are so focused on Austin being THAT absolute answer that you're ignoring everything else that may suggest he's not the pick, or more importantly, that he shouldn't be the pick. There are an absolute TON of variables that are being dismissed, or concluded definitively, in favor of drafting Austin. I don't see it as being that simple. I don't view it as a matter of "do we want to add offense or not? If yes, you HAVE TO GRAB AUSTIN THERES NO DEBATE" while it seems some do. That's what I mean by miss the forest for the trees. You're ignoring other prospects who are good in their very own right, and their lower opportunity cost allows the team to fill in other holes, holes that I feel are pretty damn glaring as of today.

And I'm someone who was given silly information that Patterson or Austin would be our first rounder, so take it for what it's worth.

 

April Fools?


Well, let's look at the prior post. Let's combine a healthy 2012 Packers receiving corps with ours and see how it looks:
WR1 Nelson
WR2 Wallace
Slot Cobb
WR4 Jennings
WR5 Jones
WR6 Hartline
[strike]WR7 Bess[/strike]
[strike]WR8 Brandon Gibson[/strike]
[strike] WR9 Driver[/strike]
[strike] WR10 Matthews[/strike]

Considering only 6 are likely rostered, a few obviously had to be axed.
Looking at this I simply don't understand the belief that Austin is a "luxury" and a move we shouldn't make when our receiving corps as a whole is nothing like what Philbin was accustomed to and likely not what Ireland has in mind when interlocking his hands behind his head, leaning back in his chair, and thinking to himself, "Now this is the receiving corps I've dreamt about! It's complete!". It wouldn't be remotely complete if this were Green Bay. It'd be 2 freakin' receivers, only 1 starter, and obviously no slot receiver to speak of who, in Philbin's old offense, received the most targets. Hartline would be lucky to break the century mark in yards, pathetic as that sounds, and even more pathetic would be having 1 rostered receiver if they rolled with five, making Hartline our fourth casualty; meanwhile GB only loses a 37 year old Driver.

And this is supposed to be a reason to not draft Austin? C'mon. I think the not seeing the forest for the trees applies to fans who falsely believe we're fine at receiver just b/c we signed Wallace, overpaid Hartline who's still just Hartline, and added the #3 receiver from a weak Rams receiving corps as a backup.

It would take us adding Tavon Austin coupled with GB's loss of Jennings to actually match the talent level of the Packers top 4 targets, and even with their solid starting trio they're likely to draft another receiver within the first few rounds, 3rd at the latest IMO.

WR1 Wallace - Nelson (even)
WR2 Hartline - Jones (edge Jones, needing only 1 season to double Hartline's career TD production)
WR3 Austin - Cobb (edge likely to favor Austin)
TE Keller - Finley (even)

 

As I said, I'm all for adding another receiver, I just don't see the value in adding a guy like Austin @ #12 if we're being perfectly honest. I think you can upgrade the slot position with not only 1) a player with much higher upside but 2) the necessary requirements to fulfill the type of receiver Philbin wants with a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

And I think the idiom at this point has taken on an entirely different meaning

And the team thought highly enough of Gibson to bring him in here as a receiver who can line up anywhere. That has to have some merit to it. It can't simply be dismissed.

This entire debate will be all for naught if all 3 OTs are gone, Werner is gone, and Carradine appears to be falling. If Austin truly is the BPA, then I can't really disagree with it, but I just don't see that scenario as being likely, especially with all this information going around that we are trying to trade up.

 

1. Didn't stop us from spending $60 million on a pure perimeter receiver.
2. Smoke screen?
3. Best way to compliment an upper echelon receiver who will be spending most of his time on the perimeter is with a great slot receiver who can now comfortably spend most of his time in the slot, no?
4. Reading into it too literally? Like I said, IMO Wallace shouldn't be moving much from the perimeter, meaning our slot receiver should rarely need to move from the slot, and Austin is more than capable of handling a few trips outside, especially when most of those will likely be scheme specific plays I would think. Now, on the opposite side of the field, Hartline & Gibson definitely need greater flexibility b/c one of them will have to play inside in 4+ WR sets as well as if we run trips or bunch formations with 3 receivers, and they'll need to be able to man the slot should Tavon go down or need a breather.

That's all I could address for now.

 

but what about Ireland's requirements since he holds the trump card? If Ireland wants an Xfactor slot guy then Ireland most likely will get his Xfactor ahead of what Philbin may or may not feel can be satisfied with a 2nd or 3rd round pick, no? What player do you feel has a higher upside in the slot than Austin out of curiosity?

No you're an idiom.

Adding Gibson does have merit. That now gives us 2 flexible receivers who can play all 3 positions plus a third if Matthews develops. That totally frees us up to haul in a dynamic slot receiver like Austin.

I'm not sure what information I'd believe at this point. However, if we hypothetically are hot for Austin, the first thing I'd do is leak that we're trying to trade up so that hopefully other teams who are also hot for Tavon feel they don't need to leapfrog us for the honor of drafting him. It's perfect disinformation IMO.

 

The point about Tavon Austin is he's not just a slot receiver.

 

And if that is the view the Dolphins take, that he is more than just a slot receiver, then you can pretty much lock the pick in. The fact of the matter is that Miami's recent history shows that they tend to draft the players they show the most interest in. IMO, they aren't spending a bunch of money visiting games, going to his pro day, and bringing him to Miami for a private visit just to be a ruse.

 

First and foremost I am in the philosophy that you take Tavon Austin at 12 and send Davone Bess off for a 5th round selection. Austin would take a very good receiving core consisting of Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, Rishard Matthews, Brandon Gibson, and Armon Binns and make them fairly lethal.

With that said I am concerned with the offensive line. From an overall talent standpoint the Dolphins are stout with Jonathan Martin, Josh Samuda, Mike Pouncey, Richie Incognito, John Jerry, Lance Louis, and Will Yeatman but it is clear the Dolphins need a premier offensive tackle. I'd rather trade pick # 54 for Branden Albert straight up rather than pick #12 and #54 to move up for Lane Johnson.

Information I have a received from a "source" who has more credibility than Incarcerated Bob told me that the Dolphins do not have a ton of interest in Dee Milliner..I found it somewhat surprising...

 

If Ireland believes the draft is strong at the core positions wouldn't he want to trade down to enjoy that depth? Perhaps a double trade down out of the first round entirely?

 

We already have plenty of picks to take advantage of that depth. The only reason to trade down at this point is if our target is off the board before we pick.

 

Plenty of picks isn't enough picks.

If anything I could see a scenario where Ireland trades down in the late first in order to try and nab a 2014 first round pick. He may not have a specific target in mind as many commentators including Gil Brandt believe the quality of the draft is fairly similar from 10-40/50. You could easily snag a Trufant+get a second round pick. Then you turn one of your 2nd rounders into a first for next year and continue to accumulate picks in a way Miami hasn't done.

 

That's like never spending a single dollar you make so you can die with all the money. We already have a ridiculous amount of picks (it takes money to sign the players too), there's no need to cute and put ourselves in a lower position for first round talent. We've got role players....hell many would say we have nothing but role players, its time for pizzazz.

 

Meh. Phinsational makes great points, and I agree with the logic behind it, im just not sure how I feel about it happening.

 

I completely agree on Tavon Austin. At best you've got a great slot WR and playmaker. At other spots you could get franchise DEs, LTs, lockdown CBs. The upgrade from Bess to Austin isn't quite the same although I do like Austin quite a bit.

One thought is that if Ireland likes the quality at pass rusher, cornerback, wide receiver, and tackle he should maneuver himself to grab quality at all of those spots though trades. If there were a way to come away with Lane Johnson and three top 50 talents at the three other spots it would be incredible.

 

Yes, but keep in mind Bess is a free agent after this year so it would be a prudent move to draft a replacement. Is it going to happen? Time will tell. Nevertheless, getting a NT or slot receiver in this draft would be prudent moves.

I could see us moving up to draft Milliner. If not an OT then Milliner imo. Do not be surprised.

 

I think this is a pretty good point, but I'm not sure if it doesn't go further. If the Dolphins add another receiver, they will likely be a de facto slot receiver even if they aren't limited there by their skill-set or build. I'm not sure any of Hartline, Wallace, and Gibson are likely to play there that often.

There's also likely a lot of non-wide receiver play at the position. Dustin Keller is probably going to get a fair amount of slot snaps, and Charles Clay was there over 50% of his snaps. Marcus Thigpen you've also got to to throw out there as a possible outright conversion.

 

Who are the defensive ends that Miami has been hovering around in the draft?

 

I don't agree. At best he is also a outside receiver as well.

Also the upgrade to playmaking ability is about 10x that of Bess. With the added benefit of all the gimmick plays that are allowed by having Austin.

 

The Dolphins have done an awful lot of looking around at players they most likely wont pick including Star, Richardson, Austin, and Patterson. The teams that would love those players are in the late first round territory. San Francisco at 31 has lots of picks to blow and a trade up is a strong possibility.

 

IMO Austin is far and away the most likely pick. I'm not sure he's the pick I'd make since I'm such a big fan of Bailey and Hopkins who should be available later, but there's no doubt in my mind that he is Miami's most likely pick at #12.

 

I hope Ireland trades up. At least that is what I would do. You have a hole at OT now and I would make a draft day trade. I see the draft unfolding with the top 2 tackles gone in the top 5 and the I would get the 3rd one. After the 3rd tackle there is a great void until the next OT talent. I'm not a great fan of the next group of tackles.

Plan B would be to sign Winston and have Martin play LT. This would make Ireland sweat the season.

Ireland has to hope one of the top 3 tackles drop far enough to trade up for. If it unfolds the way I hope, I would be extremely happy with this offseason and how the roster has been constructed. That would be my ideal scenario.

 

IMO you only trade up for Dee Milner if he gets past Detroit.

 

I think there is a decent chance one of the three tackles makes it to us. Not a high chance, but a chance, nonetheless. If not, there is Menelik Watson in the second round, or Xavier Nixon in the 4th-5th round who we could throw into the mix to compete. In the latter case I think we have to sign Winston for a year.

I hope we don't trade up. We've built great equity in a very deep draft class. I would hate to concentrate all on a few picks, since the top of the draft is not where the best value lies.

 

I don't think he's worth trading up for. Is he very good? Sure. Is he the next Darrelle Revis? Hardly.

When you can get Banks in the early second, and have a DC whose system covers a lot of CB blemishes when it comes to measurables, I think you go that route. Use the 12th overall on an explosive offensive talent or passrusher, then use the second and third round on zone corners.

(the exception is if a top three Offensive Tackle somehow falls to you at 12)

 

If Millner gets too Cleveland for example I wouldn't be opposed moving up for him. Would I prefer it? No, I agree this is a very good draft to have the picks we do.

The only OT that could fall IMO is Johnson, and I think the Bills will have to take a QB for this too happen. I'm also starting too think Tavon Austin could go right before us to S.D. In wich case we should have a nice selection of pass rushers to choose from.

I will say this, if Jarvis Jones is there at 12 I hope we run to the podium....that's flirting with best front 7 in the league IMO.

 

Let's leave Tavon Austin out of it for a moment.

Assume Lane Johnson is gone. If you have Jarvis Jones and Star both there at 12, and you have to draft one right there, who do you go with? That's a tough one for me.

 

If I had to pick one in that situation, I go with Star. I think Jarvis will make splash impact plays here and there, but I think Star will be an All-Pro DT sooner than later. But that's just my humble opinion.

 

Star all the way, for me at least, because Soliai and Starks are in contract years.

 

Anyone else think Millner is a better prospect than Claiborne who was traded up for at 6 or 7 last year??

Big fan of Millner's all around game.

 

Milliner is worth trading up for but there are several good cbs in later rounds. I am not confident in the tackle depth on this draft.