Right, except you haven't actually shown WRs in the 80s being 4 inches and 20lbs smaller and still beating press coverage. I think you don't have a firm grasp on the difference between players 30 yrs ago and today. But lets give your theory some merit for a second. Which WRs are having success at 175 lbs.????? Seriously, can we name one that plays on the outside at 175? If it were easier as you claim, there would be some players to support the theory.
How was Marvin Harrison with the press? He's a bit taller than Austin but the same weight (smaller frame) and from what I remember, very allergic to contact. Very Ginn'esque towards his later years, flopping at the sight of contact in the middle.
are you intimating that only outside receivers can be complete receivers? Yes, a lot of guys can do some of those extra things, but very few can do it who are starters or the like (which includes the slot receiver). Who is there besides Harvin & Cobb? If you can show me instances of him being handled at the LOS, then I'd most certainly give it more merit.
For anybody who buys in to combine more than the performance on the field, I got two words for you - Vernon Gholston.
No, being able to play outside and inside makes them complete. There is no formation that has a slot receiver and doesn't have an outside receiver. Not possible for college players. Its 100% projection.
this is true.... however, how often will a corner be pressing a 4.3 guy who does have the ability to make him whiff?
The scheme is going to dictate when it happens. But there are plenty of WRs that posses the ability of make people whiff, but don't win at the LOS enough to play on the outside.
where did this come from? It has no relevance to this thread, unless you're in a side debate about someone other than Tavon Austin.
And just for clarity's sake, here are the average sizes of NFL WRs by year: WR WR HT WRWT WR BMI 2006 48 72.7 201 26.76 2005 42 73.0 200 26.32 2004 42 72.9 201 26.61 2003 53 72.7 199 26.52 2002 47 72.4 198 26.50 2001 42 72.5 196 26.26 2000 43 72.8 200 26.58 1999 48 72.3 197 26.44 1998 33 72.5 194 25.97 1997 34 71.7 190 25.95 1996 43 71.8 190 25.97 1995 37 72.3 194 26.05 1994 37 71.8 191 26.07 1993 39 72.3 190 25.57 1992 33 71.5 187 25.77 1991 38 72.4 191 25.57 1990 38 71.1 188 26.08 1989 40 71.0 184 25.67 1988 29 71.3 185 25.59 1987 143 71.4 184 25.38 1986 45 71.3 181 25.06 1985 41 71.7 186 25.44 1984 31 72.3 191 25.61 1983 36 72.3 184 24.75 1982 32 72.0 184 24.88 1981 29 72.2 187 25.25 1980 28 71.5 188 25.92 1979 29 72.8 189 25.13 1978 44 72.3 185 24.83 1977 22 71.5 186 25.59 1976 42 71.8 183 25.00 1975 21 72.6 190 25.26 1974 32 72.3 187 25.09 1973 34 72.7 192 25.56 1972 23 73.1 191 25.16 1971 26 73.1 192 25.27 1970 27 72.9 192 25.35 What is the logic behind WRs being 14 lbs. heavier in 2006 than 1981?
Exactly. Could Tavon Austin be the next Steve Smith? Sure, its possible. I wouldn't say its likely though. If you're spending that high of a pick, it needs to be for a player that doesn't have question marks.
So again, what's the problem with Tavon spending 85% of the time in the slot, 13% on the outside, 2% at tailback in the pistol, and totaling more touches than a starting perimeter receiver? You keep going back to "playing outside and inside" yet guys like Cobb & Welker make their living in the slot and Philbin's slot receivers receiving more targets than their perimeter receivers, so what's more important, total targets & touches or the location of the position?
Randall Cobb can play outside just as easily as he can play in the slot. I see Austin as a 100% of the time in the slot player. I have a hard time believing anyone would even consider giving him RB snaps at 175lbs. That seems pretty far-fetched. Either way, I think we've made our points. There are a number of WRs I'd take before Austin. I don't think he's worthy of a first round pick. You do. Lets move on.
I was not advocating for taking Tavon Austin at #12 (it may have been someone else) and I have frequently said we should steer clear of taking any WR at #12, because of the FAs available and deep wide receiver class in the draft. Nevertheless, in the early 2R, Tavon Austin would be a great value pick when you look at what Minnesota gave up for Percy Harvin (a similar player/skillset). Just for the record, because there are many people on here arguing about where he would line up, etc. I do not care where the guy lines up as long as he makes plays. I have seen enough video that I am confident the guy will make plays in the NFL. Up until his injury last year, Percy Harvin was statistically one of the best "wide receivers" in the NFL. 62 receptions out of 85 targets = 72.9% <-- Phenomenal considering Wes Welker has over the last four years yielded the following percentages: 67.8, 70.9, 70.4, 75.9. 677 yards 10.9 yards per catch 3 TDs (a little low yes) 9 Games. Reference: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/12569/percy-harvin
and what's the percentage of WRs who run 4.3 forties paired with elite foot quickness, elite twitchiness, and elite agility and lateral ability?
Tavon Austin I will agree is not worth the 12th pick, but to me he is worth trading back up in the late first to get. This guy to me wont be a Steve Smith like all the comparisons I have been reading, but he can be a much better version of Welker/Harvin. If we want to compare a player in the draft that we could get round 2 to a Steve Smith, its Austins teammate Bailey. Thats the best receiver that could be available to us in round 2 IMO.
question marks? He has about as few question marks as an elite slot receiver/Xfactor as Julio Jones had as a split end.
Randall Cobb doesn't spend much time outside b/c Nelson & Jones are there. Perhaps you should watch 150 pound Brandon Banks take reps at tailback in Washington's pistol formation during the zone read option. He had a nice 21 yard run. Austin absolutely would be great option at tailback in the pistol b/c you're pretty much putting him out in space on a safety, corner, or OLB.... which is a matchup nightmare in our favor. ... and I respectfully disagree with your points. If you draft Austin you tailor your offense around him and so that he gets his touches just like he has 70 more touches than Stedman Bailey in 2012 alone, as there's no rule that says we have to run 2 TE or 2 back formations all the time. We can very easily make a 3WR set our base formation and do plenty to get Bailey as many touches as a starting slot receiver/Xfactor as Julio Jones does on the outside. Now, if a Julio Jones happened to be available in the draft, which there isnt, and he happened to fall to 12, which he wouldn't, then we'd obviously take him ahead of Austin. Unfortunately there is no Julio Jones or AJ Green, and Austin is the top playmaker this draft, so I personally don't like looking a gift horse in the mouth and would rather take what I can get in that regard and tailor the offense to maximize his ability, b/c if we start getting good the chances of us drafting a Julio Jones or AJ Green are slim to none. We can easily address one perimeter receiver in FA and then grab a second one like Swope after the first round.
Thats what I am thinking trading back into round 1 before the ****ing pats take him and he kills us for the next 5 years.
There is no better draft strategy, then taking a guy so a division rival doesn't, especially by trading up. No seriously. Awesome.
yup, that's a double win. Besides, didn't Ireland say his first priority is to close the 5 game gap in order to win our division and be guaranteed a playoff spot? If we want to beat NE we obviously need more big plays & points, which Tavon helps provide. Considering we have 4 more picks in the top 82 there's nothing wrong with using a 1st on an elite playmaker like Austin. If we have a bad draft then the 1st on Tavon won't really matter regardless, but if we have a great draft then a 1st on Tavon is like the cherry on top. It's like Seattle last year being criticized for taking Bruce Irvin whom many thought "wouldn't" be enough of an impact to use a 1st on. Not only did Irvin turn out to be a good pick but they killed it with the rest of their draft to make Irvin's pick completely worthwhile..... Plus Seattle didn't even have an extra 2nd & 3rd. Us taking Austin is like Seattle taking Irvin.
There will not be a lot of moving in this draft. It is too middle packed. If they think that is the guy, them take him at 12. No person can say we over or under drafted until we see the production. If he was 20lbs heavier, there would not be quite the durability concerns. Therefore, even with his height, we would not be questioning the decision to take him.
Unless you're just shadow-boxing, in which case the utility is a bit limited to say the least. There's pretty much an unwritten law that someone, somewhere is going to try and justify a belief by the idea the Patriots are going to do it and oh god help
Duper and Clayton were 5-9, 175-185. Hayes and Haynes were 6-0, 200 and 6-2, 192 respectively. If you don't remember, what Duper and Clayton did against them and their press coverage you can look at the numbers, which I previously posted, and/or you can look at some of the YouTube videos showing it. And Hayes and Haynes were the best bump-and-run corners of their era playing with more liberal contact rules, stick'em (sp?), etc. Of course, not everyone played bump and run against them because it wasn't very successful and most teams don't do it much anyhow. You still have made no argument for how the fact that they played 20-30 years ago is relevant at all. Another nonsense argument. The same weak sauce argument as to why Russell wilson couldn't succeed as a sub 6 foot QB. Or why Elvis Dumervil is too short to be an effective pass rusher. Or why John Randle was too short to be an effective DT. Or why Zach Thomas was too short to be an effective ILB. I can't name any Eskimos or Filipinos that are good NFL WRs but that certainly doesn't mean that an Eskimo or Filipino can't play WR in the NFL. These days teams have realized the potential of the slot receiver and most teams play the smaller quicker guys in the slot. But most of those gusy still play some outside and still catch passes outside. I would play Austin mostly in the slot too. Not because he can't play outside but because you get a better mismatch in the slot and it is easier to get the ball into his hands there.
Percy is also 2 inches taller and almost 20 lbs heavier. Plus, he's a much stronger runner than Tavon Austin. Percy's strength allows him to play both outside and in the slot. His strength allows him to beat the jam at the LOS when teams are trying to press him. Even with that, Minnesota is proving that Percy is also not someone you can build your passing game around. He's a much better compliment than lead dog. Once again, Tavon is a niche player. This is a player where you have to put him in the right match up to have him succeed. It's similar to Reggie Bush, IMO, in the sense that you have to design ways to get him the ball in space for him to maximize his ability. It is very unlikely that Tavon will make many plays as a traditional receiver, and therein lies the problem in both this offense and towards being a high draft pick. In Miami's offense, all three receiver positions play a traditional style and not the collegiate style.
KB, I see your point in calling him a niche player, but I also see how, no matter where you line him up, he IS a matchup problem for the opposing D. Coaches can figure out how to use him to OUR advantage. I could not have said THAT 2 years ago. Another point, IMO, is not depending on FA to get a prominent WR. They dont want to come here yet, unless we over pay them. I know it hurts some peoples feelings to hear that, but that is reality. If we want playmakers, we better be drafting them..........for now, anyway.
The thing is, the match up thing is going to be less of an advantage in the NFL as it was in college for him. In the NFL, there will be linebackers and safeties that can keep up with him. In college, he did most of his damage against linebackers and safeties. I'm not convinced that he has the physicality to get off the press when covered by a good cornerback. I also question his current ability to run a full route tree. At this point in time, I do not see Tavon as a guy who you can line up anywhere and create mismatches with him. I think he's a guy who you have to scheme things to get him the ball in space, and you will probably have to limit the routes you use him on in the passing game. At his size, he's absolutely a guy you do not want running the ball with any regularity. Think of what happened to Pat White against Pittsburgh.
All of the small receivers who are often considered just slot receivers play outside some as well and most are very productive when not in the slot. For example, Wes Welker averaged 2.85 yards per route run (YPRR) and Danny Amendola averaged 2.59 YPRR when not in the slot. To put that into context, those numbers would put them in the top 10 of all receivers with any appreciable number of snaps/targets. Then you have some of the small guys who play predominantly outside and are very effective despite their "theoretical" inability to beat the press. Steve Smith, Lance Moore, Antonio Brown, and TY Hilton were all very productive outside and all have very good YPRR numbers outside.
God I loved Steve smith..just a ridiculous talent...Tavon is a special talent..both wouldn't be nearly as explosive if they were taller...both built very well, I will take that explosive elusiveness and day..
Did the Packers entirely change their offense to fit Cobb, or did Cobb allow them to expand the offense they already had?
Let's say you're right. Let's say Cobb allowed them to expand their base. We don't even have a base to expand yet.
