Your disregarding skillsets and variables surrounding the players in college (like who was their Qb, how much coverage they drew because of other inferior weapons) and projecting them to the next level based on numbers?, while taking a shot at Ireland?
Like I said in the tight ends thread on the draft board. Context. All stats need to be taken in context. Looking at volume stats really tell me nothing. You have to put those raw volume stats into the proper context. Some look at Keenan Allen and see that he had 98 receptions in 2011 and only 6 TD receptions, and they think he doesn't get the ball into the endzone. What they don't realize is that his 6 TD receptiosn was 35% of California's receiving touchdown production in 2011. Anything above 30% is considered dominant. California only had 17 receiving touchdowns in 2011. Allen once again had 6 receiving touchdowns in 2012. This was 46% of California's receiving touchdowns, which had only 13 receiving touchdowns on the year. He actually had 50% of their receiving touchdowns in the games he played in. In the three games Keenan Allen missed, California only had 1 receiving touchdown. I haven't looked every receiver's numbers, but Keenan Allen so far is the most dominant receiver as far as catching touchdown passes relative to his offense and his quarterback in this draft.
Thank you for that important piece of information, I thought just based on talent and complete skillset Allen was the best this draft had to offer at the position, this kind of info gives me more confidence on the evaluation. I think his 40 time in the combine, for me, is the most anticipated time of the weekend.
IMO Allen will end up somewhere between Reggie Wayne and Hartline. I don't see him as a particularly dynamic or explosive player. I don't base that on stats. In fact, I didn't even know how many TDs he had until I read it above. I base it on watching him play. I think he's a good player as the comparison above indicates, but not one I'd be jumping up and down about if we got him at #12. It wouldn't be a horrid pick. It's safe and it is a position of need. But I see this route as good and safe rather trying to find a great player. This feels more like trading down and taking Odrick during Parcells' era rather than taking a chance on Tannehill like Ireland did last year. Personally, if I were drafting a WR in the first half of the first round, I'd have to believe pretty strongly that he'll end up one of the top 5 at the position. I don't feel that strongly about any WR in this draft.
We are going to differ on this, but when I see Allen, I see special footwork. This guy is extremely quick for his size, and IMO, that short area quickness is much more important than whatever his forty time is going to be. He uses his footwork and his quickness to create separation, along with his hands.
We do differ. I see good foot work and hand use, much like Hartline does. But I don't see that ability to separate after the catch, at least not enough that I believe he will become a dynamic threat at the next level.
With the Wide Receiver class for the 2013 Draft, I doubt we look at a receiver at #12. My guess is something along the lines of Q.Patton from Louisiana Tech or M.Goodwin from Texas in the 2R. 1st Round I see C.Warmack OG Alabama, Sharrif Floyd DT UF, E.Ansah DE BYU; something along those lines. I wish, to a degree that we were still largely a 34 because Jarvis Jones would be one of the best values. From a general value/draft perspective, you pick a WR that high when you are a couple pieces away (which we are not) or the draft is devoid of WR talent. This draft is not devoid of WR talent. Floyd would plug in at DT in a rotation whether or not Starks resigns (also makes Odrick to a degree expendable if the trade value is there). Warmack if the FO wants to strengthen our OL after Jake Long's likely departure imo. Cooper would not be great value at #12. I doubt the Dolphins take Warmack at #12, but I would not be upset as he is a great talent with all pro/pro bowl potential from day 1 (I have watched a bit of tape on him). Ansah would be fairly good value if you are gambling on his upside, much like how the Giants did when they took JPP at #15. Ansah is a 2R - 3R talent that goes into the first because of that upside. He is purportedly faster than JPP, fairly strong from what I saw on the little tape I had access to (Ex: he pushes a guy back about 3 yards or so into the backfield on a punt (granted it might be a 2nd stringer) that turns out being blocked).
Wouldn't hate KA. But I don't think he's worth #12. With some of the talent that may be on the board at the time, it might be hard to justify it. It's a terrible position for us. We've neglected the WR position to the point where we may have to reach in round 1 just to get him. What are the odds he goes in round 2? Also, is there any indication of what the Miami brass thought of his answer to their coverage question? There is a possibility Miami doesn't like what they heard.
Smoke and Mirrors is Justin Hunter, not Patterson. I'd take Williams from Baylor before I even think of Allen. Just not a great threat.
I would hope they would be interviewing all these kids. Since they sent everyone there and stuff. Seems non productive otherwise.
Of the top group of WRs, Hunter scares me the most of all. If we take him we damn sure better double up on another WR in the first 3 rounds because IMO Hunter has boom/bust written all over him.
