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Receiver Rating

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Jan 11, 2013.

  1. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
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    Dec 13, 2007
    This thread is entirely exploratory. I'm making absolutely no point whatsoever here. I'm simply posting this to get feedback about the stat from others here.

    I farted around with the concept of "receiver rating" this evening and calculated the stat for the NFL's leading receivers by using the formula for QB rating, which is the following:

    So, for receivers, in place of pass attempts (above) I substituted total number of targets. In place of interceptions, I substituted fumbles. Everything else in the "receiver rating" formula is the same as in the formula for QB rating above.

    Here is the result for a fairly large sample of the league's receivers (including tight ends):

    [TABLE="class: grid, width: 244"]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]PLAYER
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 131, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Rating
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Calvin Johnson, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]93.63
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Andre Johnson, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]107.72
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Brandon Marshall, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]99.76
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Demaryius Thomas, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]114.79
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Vincent Jackson, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]100.27
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Dez Bryant, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]122.31
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Reggie Wayne, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]83.16
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Wes Welker, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]97.73
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Roddy White, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]108.46
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]A.J. Green, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]102.95
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Julio Jones, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]117.65
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Steve Smith, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]91.27
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Marques Colston, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]103.54
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Michael Crabtree, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]117.73
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Victor Cruz, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]107.33
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Brian Hartline, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]84.86
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Eric Decker, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]130.95
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Steve Johnson, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]86.71
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Lance Moore, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]114.03
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Jason Witten, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]98.72
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Mike Williams, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]99.72
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Jimmy Graham, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]104.00
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Cecil Shorts, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]101.89
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Randall Cobb, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]130.05
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Miles Austin, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]95.41
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Tony Gonzalez, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]117.34
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Anquan Boldin, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]96.61
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Brandon Lloyd, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]88.97
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Justin Blackmon, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]78.68
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]T.Y. Hilton, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]112.93
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Jeremy Maclin, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]94.19
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Torrey Smith, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]95.83
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Greg Olsen, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]107.17
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Mike Wallace, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]91.58
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Jeremy Kerley, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]84.85
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Heath Miller, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]120.73
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Malcom Floyd, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]117.86
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Brandon Myers, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]109.46
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Josh Gordon, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]93.45
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Dwayne Bowe, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]79.61
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Larry Fitzgerald, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]71.20
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Rob Gronkowski, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]142.91
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Antonio Brown, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]93.63
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]James Jones, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]137.46
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Donnie Avery, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]72.78
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Davone Bess, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]81.33
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Andre Roberts, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]88.33
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Sidney Rice, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]122.29
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Nate Washington, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]90.38
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Jordy Nelson, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]132.51
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Denarius Moore, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]82.55
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Jermaine Gresham, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]100.35
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Owen Daniels, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]100.63
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]DeSean Jackson, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]83.46
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Chris Givens, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]93.54
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Hakeem Nicks, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]85.08
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Brandon Gibson, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]109.35
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Golden Tate, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]127.57
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Brent Celek, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]88.48
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Percy Harvin, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]107.82
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Brandon LaFell, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]99.51
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Dennis Pitta, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]111.81
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Darren Sproles, RB
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]111.34
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Jermichael Finley, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]94.27
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Danny Amendola, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]83.19
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Danario Alexander, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]133.67
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Jason Avant, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]90.24
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Greg Little, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]94.89
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Pierre Garcon, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]116.08
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Martellus Bennett, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]100.51
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Emmanuel Sanders, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]80.12
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Kendall Wright, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]87.26
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]97.19
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Kenny Britt, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]76.57
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Rod Streater, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]87.93
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Santana Moss, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]127.29
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Scott Chandler, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]99.74
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Domenik Hixon, WR
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]108.51
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 195, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Brandon Pettigrew, TE
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]68.21


    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    So, see what you think of this, and give me some feedback if you would. :up:
     
  2. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    I have no useable feedback for you, but it is certainly an interesting approach.
     
    shouright likes this.
  3. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    PA
    that was an incredible amount of work to tell me Brian hartline is an average wr.
     
  4. Steve-Mo

    Steve-Mo 'Saban' Guy

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    Western New York
    I wonder if drops could be factored in instead of fumbles. The math adjusted so that a drop is equal to, say, a 1/3 of an interception.

    EDIT: Or perhaps more? It seems silly to equate 30 drops to 10 interceptions, but there ARE less TDs weighing the opposite way. I suck at the maths.
     
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  5. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Here's an analysis that focuses on the importance of team pass attempts, which I like that you included in your formula. Another thing you can see in that link is the disparity between TDs. As I've said, Hartline lacks some TD obtaining skills. But receiving TDs are something heavily dependent upon things outside the WR's control. For example, Calvin Johnson caught 122 passes for 1964 yards yet only had 4 more TDs than Brian Hartline.
     
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  6. miamiron

    miamiron There's always next year

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    Hartline's 2 tds in the last 42 games sucks
     
  7. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I like that idea. I'm going to re-run the data later today with that change. :up:
     
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  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Let me just say I like the approach of your post, because you aren't making conclusions and you explain your reasoning.

    To that end, in (a) why does the formula subtract .3 then multiply by 5, for example? I ask because I don't know and since I don't know, I wonder if those numbers would be different when dealing with WRs instead of QBs. Probably not, but as I said, I don't know.
     
  9. Perfectville_USA

    Perfectville_USA Mr Perfect

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    Hartline is a very average NFL reciever, I hope and pray we do not over pay this kid in FA. He had inflated numbers this season, plus the Rec to TD numbers? {show he not a big play reciever} We need players on offense, who can make BIG plays.
     
  10. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    Shou, if you have everything saved in excel (god I hope so, lol), might I ask you to try the NCAA passer efficiency formula (instead of the NFL passer rating) and see if it creates a larger disparity between players (or changes them around at all)? The upper limit of NCAA is above 1,200 whereas the NFL formula is 158.3.

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The constants in the QB rating formula were based on a statiscial analysis of the performance of NFL QBs during the 1960s, which is one of the things people criticize about its application to todays players. I'm not sure what relavance they would have to a wr, if any at all.
     
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  12. maynard

    maynard Who, whom?

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    Yeah, even though they are turnovers, I don't see INTs as analogous to fumbles.

    Makes me think...I think a good stat might be adjusted receiving yards, where when a drop is recorded the yardage is also noted. It may not be entirely fair as you might end up with negative values. Would be interesting to see.

    The trouble is that drops are so subjective, which may hurt your analysis.
     
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  13. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    My thing is, if we are going to use stats, then they need to be as objective as possible. Someone mentioned factoring in drops, but to me collecting the data on drops is subjective. Because of that and the way the game changes like you mentioned, I wonder if we could have numbers more representative of the WRs individual talent if we just focused on TD/yards/YAC/1st down conversions/fumbles per completion, because those stats are more representative of a WR skill, then say attempts. Then compare it to the average of all starters in that position (#1 WR, slot, TE, etc.) that year and we weight the importance of each of one. I dunno, math and me are not buddies.
     
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  14. maynard

    maynard Who, whom?

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    YAC resulting in first downs or scores is one thing I would really like to see
     
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  15. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Drops are as critical as fumbles.. Is a fumble where a WR gets smacked by two safeties worse than a WR that drops a perfectly thrown ball in the 4th quarter on 3rd down?
     
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  16. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    They are critical but there's no objective way to account for them.
     
  17. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    Personally, I think DVOA is fine, but if anyone wants to try to come up with a different metric, more power to them.
     
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  18. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Fumbles is not encompassing enough of receiver-specific mistakes.

    I'd prefer drops, INTs on targets to him, plus fumbles combined.

    Also, could YPC make it in?
     
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  19. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The problem to me is that the quarterback passer rating has the look to me of having been designed and balanced with certain absolute levels in mind for the four primary components. These absolute levels were doubtless based on an analysis of historical data. The analysis which created these standards by which the quarterback is judged on the four components does not necessarily apply to wide receivers.

    For example, does the interaction within the formula between yards per attempt and completion percentage apply in the same way to receivers as it does quarterbacks? If you're a slot receiver, you're going to have a higher completion percentage and a lower yards per attempt (by virtue of lower yards per completion). You may consider therefore that the formula accounts for this, as guys with low YPAs but high completion could come out the same as guys with high YPAs but low completion. But you don't know that they will. The relationship for those components set up within the formula is based on a quarterback's efficient frontier. What if a wide receiver's efficient frontier is different in nature? That means you have the potential for biases in the distribution of ratings that are based not on skill or production but based on type of receiver. That may be OK with some people because I think most coaches would say that all things being equal a perimeter threat is more valuable than a slot receiver, but what if it's the slot receiver that gets the bias in his favor?

    Additionally the replacement of interceptions with fumbles, while I like the idea, is another component of the formula that would need to be worked upon. The reason I say this is because even more so than the other three components of the formula, the interception percentage component of the passer rating is relative to an explicitly pegged interception percentage number of 2.375 percent. I know you want to say well as long as all receivers are pegged to the same standard it doesn't matter. But it DOES matter because this is a multi-factor formula and the key is how the multiple factors INTERACT with one another within the formula to create potential biases based on standards and norms that may or may not be accurate.

    Another key weakness in the formula lies in the completion percentage component. For a receiver this can be all over the place based purely on position, role and quarterback accuracy. A quarterback on the other hand may have different standards of completion percentage based on what kind of system he runs, but the variation in the standard based on offensive system character is actually pretty tight. Similarly, the amount which a quarterback must depend on those around him in order to have a high versus low completion percentage is less compared with a wide receiver. Before everyone gets in a huff about that statement consider that a quarterback has the pick of who he wants to the throw the ball to based on who is open, and thus can maximize his chances of completing a ball. A receiver can't choose his quarterback, nor can he really choose which routes he gets thrown the football in order to maximimize his completion percentage.

    Additionally if you think about a quarterback's completion percentage being directly dependent on whether his receivers catch or drop the football, the equivalent for a receiver is that whether he catches an attempt his direction is directly dependent on whether his quarterback throws the football accurately or not. Because both are subject to something like this, you would intuitively say then it doesn't matter and the passer rating formula should apply. However it's the VARIANCE in that component that matters, the law of bigger numbers, and the number of passes thrown "wide, overthrown or underthrown" as it's tracked by various stat services tends to be a lot bigger than numbers of drops. For example, about 6.4% of all pass attempts in the NFL this year were dropped according to PFF. While I dare not spend an hour compiling "wide, overthrown or underthrown" for every quarterback in the league this year, a few examples would be Eli Manning (14.6%), Peyton Manning (11.5%), Tom Brady (17.4%), Drew Brees (10.7%), Ben Roethlisberger (10.9%), Cam Newton (18.8%), Mark Sanchez (17.4%), Ryan Lindley (21.1%), Andrew Luck (17.7%), Russell Wilson (11.5%), Brandon Weeden (15.5%) and Ryan Tannehill (15.9%). That probably runs the full range of that stat, but it gives you an idea of the maximums and minimimums as well as the variance. Remember that the VARIANCE is the key element here because this is purely a dilutive, "random noise" factor. Where "drops" for quarterback's with 300+ attempts ranged relatively TIGHTLY between 4.2% and 8.9%, with a variance of 1.2%, this ranges from 10.7% to 21.1% with a variance of 3.4% (based on the small 12 point sample pool which is just barely large enough to calculate a statistically significant standard deviation).

    The point of what I'm saying on that is, if there's twice as much "random noise" factor for a wide receiver's completion percentage component as there is for a quarterback's completion percentage, should that component INTERACT in exactly the same way with the YPA, TD and INT(FUM) factors? Should the efficient frontier be set up differently?

    The final criticism (or at least the last one I care to write about) would be in the way that touchdown percentage interacts with the other three components. This one is relatively simple. Touchdown percentages for a quarterback vary a lot more tightly than they do for wide receivers. That's just a fact. The range is around 3% to 7% with a standard deviation of about 1% and while I care not to calculate it for wide receivers I think that receivers' standard deviation on that stat is probably about 3x what it is for QBs. Again, the reason this matters is the interaction of the multiple factors that go into the unified formula. If the very nature of any of the components is different from QBs to WRs then it destabilizes the way the components interact one another to produce biases in the data.

    These all constitute reasons I've generally resisted referring to passer ratings on corners and receivers. I like the idea but it requires a wholly separate undertaking in order to come up with something that behaves in a manner that you see fit.
     
  20. cdz12250

    cdz12250 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think it's good to try to quantify performance. I'm not sure that what works for quarterbacks directly translates to receivers. Too many subjective factors. A busted route, great coverage, pressure on the quarterback, slipping and falling. Hard to isolate what pertains solely to the receiver.
     
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  21. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    without reading the whole post because I'm in a rush to a meeting, my thought is that the components in the formula have to be weighted differently based on a different position and it's not as simple as substituting variables in the formula. Like any efficiency formula I've used in the past, how you weight the components means quite a bit, and since the amount you weight each component is subjective, the whole analysis is still very subjective. I think your point to weight it on historical data is a even a better way of saying it and might help curb the subjectiveness of the analysis.
     
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  22. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ck has to be right about WR TD variance (3x might be exaggerating)v. Just eyeball it for those of you who don't like stats. And then explain to me why all world WR Calvin Johnson's TDs vary so much.
     
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  23. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Ok, not hijack Shou's thread, but I didn't think I should make another thread unless this makes sense. There is a high degree of likelihood what I'm about to propose doesn't make any sense at all, as I am not a math guy and am attempting to bumblefVck my way through this. Feel free to shoot me down immediately numbers people.

    I wanted to see if there was a way to score a WR as objectively as possible based on their own skills as much as possible. A completion takes two people doing their job correctly. The receiver has to do his job right to catch the ball and then its about what he can do once the ball is in hands or where did he put himself to catch the ball in the first place. To that end, I tried to look at stats that isolate WR skill as much as possible. I settled on Completions, TDs, Yards, YAC, 1st Downs & Fumbles. With that I tired to create a baseline solid WR:


    [table="width: 800, class: grid"]
    [tr]
    [td]PlayerName[/td]
    [td]Comp[/td]
    [td]TD[/td]
    [td]TD/Comp[/td]
    [td]Yards[/td]
    [td]Yards/Comp[/td]
    [td]YAC[/td]
    [td]YAC/Comp[/td]
    [td]1stDn[/td]
    [td]1stDn/Comp[/td]
    [td]Fumbles[/td]
    [td]Fum/Comp[/td]
    [td]SCORE[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]J. Doe[/td]
    [td]100[/td]
    [td]10[/td]
    [td]0.1000[/td]
    [td]1000[/td]
    [td]10.0000[/td]
    [td]400[/td]
    [td]4.0000[/td]
    [td]100[/td]
    [td]1.0000[/td]
    [td]0[/td]
    [td].0000[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td]4.0000[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td]4.0000[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td]4.0000[/td]
    [td][/td]
    [td]4.0000[/td]
    [td]0[/td]
    [td].0000[/td]
    [td]16.00[/td]
    [/tr]
    [/table]

    What i tried to do was weigh the stats for importance and then make the numbers equal. So basically I multiplied TD/Comp & Yards/Comp by .4 each. Then I multiplied YAC/Comp & 1stDn/Comp by .1 each. Fumbles i multiplied by .25. I then multiplied (TD/Comp).4 by 100 to get the numbers to make sense with Yards/Comp. I did the same thing for Fum/Comp. Then I did (1stDn/Comp).1 by 40. for the same reason.
    I then added up those and subtracted fumbles.

    So what all did I do wrong?
     
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  24. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    I don't know of any websites that include how many interceptions were thrown by the QB when targeting a particular WR, but I think that is the best variable to use instead of using fumbles. I have done this in the past for WRs by going through play-by-play but takes a bit more time work. This way is gives the QB rating when targeting that particular WR. It ends up being a good way to see which #1s help their QBs and which ones hurt their QBs, at least in terms of QB rating.

    Thanks for all your research and ingenuity.
     
  25. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    PFF does it, but I disagree with you on its worth.
     
  26. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The problem with including interceptions is in the weighting and the interaction between the components, which is what I keep trying to say.

    Interception percentage ends up a very LARGE influence in passer rating. Yet as you say a receiver is only at best partially responsible for an interception, and not the major part, either. Add to that the fact that interception percentage at the WR position as opposed to the QB position has a much higher variance, and it's bad news all the way around...a component with a HIGH randomness factor that is weighted so heavily it can completely outweigh all three other components by sheer randomness.
     
  27. Laces Out

    Laces Out Well-Known Member

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    Wouldn't it be more useful to treat this like batting average, and then have TDs treated like slugging?
     
  28. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    Damnitalltohell!

    I graduated from college 3 weeks ago to get away from math! Now I gotta run into this on my favorite Fins Forum???? :tantrum:
     
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  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    You'll never get away from it. I've been running from it for 15 years, I can't get away.
     
  30. PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend

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    the next dimension
    So what's the weather tomorrow?
     

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