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Is Ryan Tannehill Going to Become a Franchise QB?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Jan 5, 2013.

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  1. Jan 5, 2013 #1
    shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
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    Dec 13, 2007
    After doing a whole lot more data collection and statistical analysis over the past few days, I've decided to alter a bit the plan for the "sequel" to this thread:

    http://www.thephins.com/forums/show...hill-amp-Weeden-An-Objective-Analysis-(Part-I)

    There will still be a comparison here among the five rookie QBs from this year, as I originally intended, but after looking at the data rather extensively, what I decided to focus on much more instead is the statistical probability that Ryan Tannehill will become a franchise QB during his career in the NFL, since that might just be a concern for some of us. ;)

    The idea here first was to develop a criterion variable: to identify which of the quarterbacks who started a significant number of games as rookies have gone on to become franchise QBs.

    To do that, I used career QB rating as the criterion measure. In other words, I focused on career QB ratings as a means of determining whether the QBs in the analysis have attained the "franchise" level during their careers. Here is the data set that was used for this analysis and all the other statistical analyses I'm going to cover later in this post:

    [TABLE="class: grid, width: 672"]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]QB
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Rookie Starts
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1st Round?
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Franchise QB?
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Career QB Rating
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Rookie QB Rating
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]WPA
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Total Attempts
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Attempts Per Start
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Attempts Per TD
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Attempts Per INT
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Defensive Rank (Points)
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Rushing Rank (Yards)
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Deep Ball %age
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Tannehill
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]76.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1.36
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]479
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]31.93
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]39.92
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]36.85
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]17
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]8.77
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Luck
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]76.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]4.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]627
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]39.19
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27.26
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]34.83
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]21
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]22
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]13.24
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Wilson
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]100
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]3.03
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]393
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24.56
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15.12
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]39.3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]14.25
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]RGIII
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]102.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]3.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]393
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]26.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]19.65
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]78.6
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]22
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]8.4
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Weeden
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]72.6
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-0.47
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]517
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]34.47
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]36.93
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]30.41
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]19
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.06
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Newton
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]86.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]84.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]2.05
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]517
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]32.31
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24.62
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]30.41
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15.47
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Dalton
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]87.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]80.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-0.13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]516
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]32.25
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]25.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]39.69
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]19
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.85
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Bradford
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]82.6
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]76.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]0.09
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]590
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]36.88
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]32.78
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]39.33
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]12
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]25
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]6.61
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Palmer
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]86.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]77.3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]0.06
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]432
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]33.23
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]21
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]17
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.88
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Roethlisberger
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]92.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]98.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]2.12
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]295
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]22.69
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]17.35
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]26.82
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]14.92
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Ryan
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]90.9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]87.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]3.75
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]434
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27.13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27.13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]39.45
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]12.67
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Flacco
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]86.3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]80.3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-0.13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]428
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]26.75
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]30.57
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]35.67
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11.45
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Ponder
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]81.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]70.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-0.61
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]291
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]22.38
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]22.38
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]31
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]12.71
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Stafford
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]82.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]61
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]0.45
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]377
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]37.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]18.85
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]32
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.34
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Gabbert
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]14
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]70.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]65.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-2.21
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]413
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]34.42
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]37.55
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]12
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]6.78
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Sanchez
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]71.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]63
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-1.02
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]364
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24.27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]30.33
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]18.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.71
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Young
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]74.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]66.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]0.96
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]357
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27.46
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29.75
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27.46
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]31
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]14.29
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Leinart
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]70.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]74
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]0.91
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]377
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]34.27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]34.27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]31.42
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]30
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.08
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Freeman
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]79.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]59.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-1.08
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]290
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]32.22
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]23
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11.72
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Gradkowski
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]65.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]65.9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-1.3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]328
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29.82
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]36.44
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]36.44
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]21
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]28
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.98
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Orton
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]79.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]59.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-2.66
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]368
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24.53
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]40.89
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]28.31
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11.96
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Edwards
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]75.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]70.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-0.42
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]269
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29.89
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]38.43
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]33.63
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]18
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]6.69
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Clausen
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]58.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]58.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-1.83
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]299
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29.9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]99.67
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]33.22
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]26
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]7.02
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Walter
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]52.6
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]55.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-2.49
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]276
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]34.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]92
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]21.23
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]18
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15.94
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Smith
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]79.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]40.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-1.57
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]165
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]23.57
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]165
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]30
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]17
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]13.94
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]EManning
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]82.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]55.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-0.05
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]197
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]28.14
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]32.83
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]21.89
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]17
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]9.64
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    The career QB ratings for the QBs who are in only their second years in the league were their QB ratings during their second season only, since using a "career" rating that involved their rookie season would confound the analysis.

    What we see here is that the median career QB rating in the sample is 79.8 (the average was 77.9). Therefore every QB with a career QB rating of 79.8 or higher has been deemed a franchise QB in the sample. As you can see, that fairly well maps on to my sense of what people would generally believe, with Josh Freeman being the lowest man on the totem pole in that regard, and Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan being at the top.

    Interestingly, Kyle Orton and Alex Smith were barely below the "franchise" level, and both became backups this season. So not only does the criterion variable (career QB rating) map on to my sense of the general consensus of how these QBs are viewed; it also distinguishes starters from backups very well, even backups who were recently starters and who played well in the recent past (Smith and Orton).

    Therefore I would say the criterion variable has what we call "construct validity." In other words, in my opinion it validly represents the concept of "franchise QB," at least for the purpose of the forthcoming statistical analyses.

    So, now we have a whole lot of other variables (above) we can use to determine whether Ryan Tannehill may someday find his place in that category, as well.

    What we find first statistically (using one-way ANOVAs) is that rookie QBs who later became franchise QBs differed significantly from those who did not with regard to only three of the above variables: 1) rookie QB rating, 2) pass attempts per TD pass, and 3) WPA (explained below).

    The first stands to reason, since past behavior (rookie QB rating) is often a predictor of future behavior (career QB rating). The second (pass attempts per TD pass) stands to reason, as well, since TD passes are an element of QB rating.

    The third, however -- WPA -- requires some explanation. "WPA," or "win probability added" is taken from a website called Advanced NFL Stats, and refers to the following:

    Now, what we see here with some additional statistical analysis is that the correlation between rookie QB rating and career QB rating is 0.58 and is statistically significant at a p-value of 0.006.

    So, you ask, perhaps, why not just use rookie QB rating to determine how likely a rookie QB is to become a franchise QB?

    Two reasons: 1) the correlation between WPA and career QB rating is much stronger -- 0.75, with a p-value less than 0.0001, and 2) when we correlate rookie QB rating with career QB rating while partialling out the variance in both associated with rookie WPA, the correlation between rookie QB rating and QB rating drops from 0.58 to a lowly 0.19, which is not statistically significant.

    In other words, the way a rookie QB plays in the clutch (i.e, his WPA) is a much stronger predictor of his later designation as a franchise QB than his rookie QB rating alone. The partial correlation above points out that there have been a decent number of QBs whose rookie QB ratings were low and whose career QB ratings are high, because their rookie WPA was relatively good (and vice-versa). Said differently, their play in the clutch as rookies was a better predictor of their later success than their overall QB ratings as rookies.

    So now that we have an adequate predictor of "franchise QB" status based on the analyses above, let's take a look at how Ryan Tannehill did this year in that regard.

    Ryan Tannehill's WPA this year was 1.36, which may seem meager at first glance when you compare it to the WPA numbers of RGIII, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger, for example.

    However, when you analyze it statistically, you find that the average "franchise QB" in the sample above had a rookie WPA of only 0.59, while the average "non-franchise QB" in the sample had a rookie WPA of -1.16 (yes that's negative 1.16).

    We already know Ryan Tannehill's rookie WPA places him comfortably in the "franchise QB" category, but we can go one step further. We can see if his rookie WPA was significantly higher than that of the average rookie WPA of the "franchise QBs" in the sample.

    The answer is not quite. The standard deviation of the rookie WPAs among the "franchise QBs" is 1.44, which means Ryan Tannehill's WPA of 1.36 isn't quite a standard deviation above the mean.

    However, I think the general finding here, that Ryan Tannehill showed the kind of clutch play this year that suggested he has "the tools" to become a franchise QB, supports the perceptions of many here in the forum. :up:

    To provide a bit of additional context, Chad Henne's WPA in 2009 (his first season as a starter) was 0.90, which would've placed him, also, in the "future franchise QB" category, though not with the degree of confidence provided by Ryan Tannehill's WPA of 1.36. Of course Chad Henne was not a rookie that year, either, and he'd had much more experience at the position than Tannehill.

    Also, and here's the clincher: Chad Henne's WPA the following season (2010) was -1.28.

    So anyway, this is all just for fun and for our information. Hope you found it enjoyable. :up:
     
    BayAreaFinFan, Bpk, Rhody Phins Fan and 7 others like this.
  2. Jan 5, 2013 #2
    Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    I just wanted to say you FINALLY killed your own argument about skill players. Even though they have nearly identical QB ratings Luck threw far more TD's than Tannehill. Except I thought QB rating was the ultimate end-all-be-all statistic for QB's and by improving that you win more games and throw more TD's.

    How can a guy with an identical QB rating then:

    A) Win four more games
    B) Throw so many more TD's

    Is it that the players around you actually make an impact?
     
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  3. Jan 5, 2013 #3
    padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    IMO:

    A Franchise Qb:

    -30 Td's
    -3 to 1 Td to int ratio

    This is what separates the merely good, from the franchise Qb.

    Interestingly enough, the Bills Jim Kelly does not meet that standard and they went to 4 Sb's with him at Qb.
     
  4. Jan 5, 2013 #4
    Jt0323

    Jt0323 Fins Up! Luxury Box

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    I know Tannehill got hurt in the Jet game, but he did technically start 16 games.
     
  5. Jan 5, 2013 #5
    Sethdaddy8

    Sethdaddy8 Well-Known Member

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    NJ
    Who knows. Stick around and find out.
     
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  6. Jan 5, 2013 #6
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    I see a guy that compares to David Garrard. Good play action game, decent mobility but struggles without a running game.
     
  7. Jan 5, 2013 #7
    seabass0795

    seabass0795 New Member

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    He lost all 4 though
     
  8. Jan 5, 2013 #8
    AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe it has to do with how well the QBs play during critical times of the game. Many games are won/loss during final 2 minutes, 4th quarter and OT.

    Luck:
    4th Quarter +/- 7 points: 51 comp, 89 att, 687 yards, 57.3%, 7.72 ypa, 4 TD, 1 int, 92.3 QB rating
    Last 2 minutes half (1st and 2nd): 60 comp, 118 att, 884 yards, 50.8%, 7.49 ypa, 5 TD, 4 int, 75.7 QB rating
    OT: 2 comp, 2 att, 36 yards, 100%, 18 ypa, 1 TD, 0 int, 158.3 QB rating

    Tannehill:
    4th Quarter +/- 7 points: 33 comp, 67 att, 525 yards, 49.3%, 2 TD, 2 int, 73.3 QB rating
    Last 2 minutes half (1st and 2nd): 18 comp, 38 att, 251 yards, 47.4%, 6.61 ypa, 1 TD, 4 int, 38.3 QB rating
    OT: 4 comp, 7 att, 60 yards, 57.1%, 8.57 ypa, 0 TD, 1 int, 45.8 QB rating

    Keep in mind Tannehill's numbers are skewed by Hartline's 80 yard TD catch in which Cardinals inexplicably let him run free after he already torched them for 11 catches 173 yards. Otherwise Tannehill has a 63.01 QB rating in 4th Quarter +/- 7 points...also, doesn't count fumble against Cardinals leading to Cardinals tying game and sending to OT.

    Appears to be an indirect relationship between game pressure and performance with Tannehill.

    For me, the most important factor in determining a franchise QB is how well the QB plays during pressure when the game is on the line. The great ones step up. The weak ones lay down. So far Tannehill has laid down. That was the concern with Tannehill coming out of college and his stats clearly show that he struggled as well during pressure situations last year and the biggest reason imo the Aggies went from #8 in preseason to out of the top 25 with a 7-6 record.
     
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  9. Jan 5, 2013 #9
    Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He didn't really kill his own argument.
     
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  10. Jan 5, 2013 #10
    Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Which group would you rather have?

    - T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, Donnie Avery, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener & Indy's oline
    - Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Zach Miller, Doug Baldwin, Marshawn Lynch & Seattle's oline
    - Alfred Morris, Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss, Leonard Hankerson, Joshua Morgan & Skin's oline
    - Reggie Bush, Brian Hartline, Davone Bess, Anthony Fasano, Charles Clay & Miami's oline

    After all, WPA, QB Rating, TDs, etc. all require someone to catch passes and a group to block.
     
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  11. Jan 5, 2013 #11
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    You're talking precisely about the finding regarding the WPA stat in the original post, which supports your point I bolded above.

    However, it's also true that Ryan Tannehill had the 7th highest WPA in the entire sample above, indicating he was fairly good in that regard as a rookie.

    Now, if you're going to compare him to Andrew Luck, however, he's going to come up woefully short, because Andrew Luck had the highest WPA in the sample, and it was a ridiculous 4.2 standard deviations above the mean.

    So, IMO, the people who say Ryan Tannehill is "close" to Andrew Luck are wrong, but the people who believe Ryan Tannehill didn't play well in the clutch are also wrong.

    Ryan Tannehill played well in the clutch compared to the average rookie, but Andrew Luck's play in that regard was from another galaxy completely.
     
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  12. Jan 5, 2013 #12
    AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Asking the wrong question imo. The real question is which QB would the players listed have as their QB...Luck, RG3, Wilson or Tannehill. I believe the only players that would honestly say a QB other than the one currently on their team are the Dolphins players.
     
  13. Jan 5, 2013 #13
    Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Its not the wrong question at all.

    QB's account a lot for the play of the team, but it is not all of the responsibility. The players that surround him are important too and can and do affect the QB stats. Dropped balls, blown routes, falling down, paltry YAC all can hurt a QB just as great catches, excellent adjustments, catching in stride, and turning a 5 yard dump off into a 90 yrd TD can all positively affect the QB.

    Its bizarre there is no accounting for this at all. If someone doesn't think there's a significant relevance to surrounding talent and QB play, they not only don't understand the game but lack the fundamental ability to comprehend a completed pass literally takes two people to do their jobs correctly.

    Andrew Luck would not look as good as he does if he had the Dolphins receivers and oline.
     
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  14. Jan 5, 2013 #14
    17isOurSavior

    17isOurSavior New Member

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    Yes.
     
  15. Jan 5, 2013 #15
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Well hell! Why'd I do all that analysis then? :lol: ;)
     
  16. Jan 5, 2013 #16
    Fame

    Fame Well-Known Member

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    I really don't understand why people act as if we had the opportunity to draft Luck, RGIII, and Tannehill...and chose Tannehill. Luck went to a team that obviously tanked the season for the first pick and we have so many holes that it would have been stupid to pay what Washington did for RGIII.

    Nobody should be asking, "Who would you rather have: Luck, RGIII, or Tannehill?" Instead, you should ask yoursekf, "Would you rather have Tannehill or another non-QB rookie?"
     
  17. Jan 5, 2013 #17
    smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy

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    Hartline and Bess had the best seasons of their careers. You really think they would pick another QB? And what leads you to believe they would have as many opportunities on the other teams. Silly question IMHO.
     
  18. Jan 5, 2013 #18
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The interesting thing about the "surrounding cast" point is that Andrew Luck's out-of-this-world WPA was fueled by the following WPAs of his surrounding cast:

    Reggie Wayne: 1.02
    TY Hilton: 1.18
    Donnie Avery 1.16
    Vick Ballard: 0.54
    Donald Brown: 0.19
    (Indy's tight end isn't listed and therefore must be below -0.48)

    Ryan Tannehill had:

    Davone Bess: 1.56
    Brian Hartline: 1.12
    Reggie Bush: -0.10
    Daniel Thomas: -0.15
    Anthony Fasano: -0.06

    I'd say Luck's cast was better overall, but I'd say Tannehill's two starting receivers were better (in terms of WPA only), which runs counter to the belief that Tannehill was dragged down by them.

    Luck's ridiculously good WPA of 4.5 was fueled by two starting receivers whose WPAs were a combined 2.18, while Ryan Tannehill's much more down-to-earth WPA of 1.36 was fueled by two starting receivers whose WPA combined was 2.68.

    I'd say Tannehill was benefitting from his starting receivers much more than Luck was benefitting from his. Luck of course did have more of an arsenal, however, though I still think they benefitted from him much more than he benefitted from them.
     
  19. Jan 5, 2013 #19
    AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    I would definitely take Seattle's and Washington's talent. But the QB rating between them and Tannehill is ridiculous.

    But, I would definitely take Miami's talent over Indy's. Interesting that an old vet (Wayne) and 3 rookies are considered to be superior talent. Comparing Luck's two top targets with WR with Miami's.

    Wayne/Avery:
    166 comp, 319 target, 52.0%, 2136 yards, 6.69 ypa, 8 TD

    Hartline/Bess:
    135 comp, 232 target, 58.2%, 1861 yards, 8.02 ypa, 2 TD

    Looks like Hartline/Bess stack up fairly well.

    Luck doesn't have anyone close to Bush coming out of the backfield to help him out. The leading RB receiver was Brown who had 9 catches, 93 yards and 0 TD vs Bush 35 catches, 292 yards, 2 TD. Heck, Lane's 11 catches, 79 yards, 1 TD was as good as Brown.

    Maybe the 3 rookies Hilton, Allen, Fleener did so well as ROOKIES was b/c of Luck throwing to them. How many veteran QBs have been as successful incorporating 3 rookies as part of their top 5 weapons as Luck was as a rookie. I would argue that Tannehill would have struggled mightily under similar circumstances with Indy's talent. There was good reason Indy finished 2-14 last year. Tannehill did a piss-poor job getting the young talent around him involved...Matthews has skills. Neither Clay or Moore were able to make any progress this year.

    Tannehill struggled to get #3 WR veteran (Armstrong, Gafney, Naanee) options involved who had some success elsewhere.

    Fasano went from averaging 13.5 and 14.1 ypc with Henne/Moore throwing to him to 8.1 ypc under Tannehill.
     
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  20. Jan 5, 2013 #20
    cdz12250

    cdz12250 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Is Ryan Tannehill going to become a franchise quarterback?

    Not with that offensive line, he's not.

    Not with those receivers, he's not.

    Shou, am I being overly simplistic here?
     
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  21. Jan 5, 2013 #21
    sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The best way to tell if a QB is going to become a franchise QB, is to watch him play for 3 years or so and then decide.

    I appreciate the work you put into these posts Shou, but no statistical analysis after a rookie year is going to tell you whether or not he is going to be a franchise QB.
     
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  22. Jan 5, 2013 #22
    Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    Shou, the fact that Luck had so many weapons with a positive WPA dilutes the individual WPA of each player. If more players are contributing positively, then each player is less of a factor by himself. The fact that Tannehill ONLY had 2 weapons with a positive WPA says it all.
     
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  23. Jan 5, 2013 #23
    Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I think that the answer depends on how you define "franchise QB". If the criteria is 1st ballot HOFer, then no, Tannehill isnt likely to develop into that. Many people, myself included, looked at Luck and saw the next Marino/Manning/Unitas. He's the "once every 15 years or so" great one. I dont expect Ryan to ever be as good. But, if the question is rather, "Can Tannehill develop into a quality starter for a number of years who leads the team to the playoffs?", then I think yes.

    Its of course very debatable, but when I look around the league and ask how many teams' QB situations I think will be worse than Miami heading into the 2014 season, I think that the number is above 20, meaning that at that point, he'd be a top 10-12 QB in the league. JMO, and Im of coursed biased.
     
  24. Jan 5, 2013 #24
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Actually the best predictor I'm aware of (WPA) says he will despite whatever weaknesses he has around him right now.

    The argument you're making would be better if his performance this year had actually suffered in a way that was predictive of future franchise QB status.
     
  25. Jan 5, 2013 #25
    Perfectville_USA

    Perfectville_USA Mr Perfect

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    YESSSSS, he going to be a franchise QB.
     
  26. Jan 5, 2013 #26
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Right, but those two weapons are the ones everybody complains about! ;)
     
  27. Jan 5, 2013 #27
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Not with 100% certainty, no, but this is the best we can do in terms of prediction. The alternative is waiting like you said and being even less certain, and I'm not into that. :)
     
  28. Jan 5, 2013 #28
    seabass0795

    seabass0795 New Member

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    I am not sure just yet. He seems ready and if he improves he can become what we want at the qb position. My issue is however, I am not sure how much he will improve these next few years. He has had his ups and downs this season but whenever I see a good play or bad play I notice that he stares down his first read through the whole play. Other defenses will easily catch on and read his eyes. As Tannehill gets better, the defenses find more ways to stop him. To become a Franchise QB you need to outsmart those defenses and improve at a faster rate, which I am not sure Tannehill can do
     
  29. Jan 5, 2013 #29
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    That's more along the lines of my definition of franchise QB. IMO a franchise QB is one who keeps you from thinking you need and looking for another one.
     
  30. Jan 5, 2013 #30
    Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    Not really. People do not undervalue the efforts of Hartline and Bess. People only firstly recognize that they are the only 2 positive contributors on the passing game, and secondly recognize that while they do their job well, they are also not considerably good or great.
     
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  31. Jan 5, 2013 #31
    smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy

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    Any stat that gives Bess and Hartline an edge over Reggie Wayne is irrelevant.
     
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  32. Jan 5, 2013 #32
    Dolphin 12

    Dolphin 12 New Member

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    Isn't vick his leading RB WR with 17 catches,150 + yards and TD? He also had Moore with 6 catches 77 yard and TD. Also we discredit him for not involving off the street scrubs like armstong who hardly played and playing injured, gaffney (only played 3 games), and a POS legadu. But we don't give credit for Tannehill increasing Bess/Hartlines value? Just because you assume Matthews has "skills" doesn't mean he really does or is any good, haven't seen much from him since it's not tannehill's fault that rishard was for inactive most of the season. But you have to a pro scout to assume rishard, clay, and moore are any good, I don't how they've proven they are. Since you seem to like stats do you actually believe Bess > Wayne?
     
  33. Jan 5, 2013 #33
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    IMO he does do that quite often. But part of adjusting to the speed of the game is knowing, based on less visual "data," whether that first read will come open, and then moving quickly to the next read in the progression, and so on.

    At this point, while he's still adjusting to the speed of the game, he's needing to gather too much visual "data" to determine whether he's going to go there with the ball, and then when he decides that read isn't open, there isn't enough time left to make a play elsewhere much of the time. That progression needs to happen much more quickly.
     
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  34. Jan 5, 2013 #34
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I think you're mistaken about the level of "clutch" play you get from Davone Bess and Brian Hartline.
     
  35. Jan 5, 2013 #35
    sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No one in the world would take Hartline/Bess over Wayne/Hilton, and any argument to the contrary is pretty foolish. Wayne is still one of the best WRs in the NFL who can get open and make plays even when defenses know they're going to him, and Hilton has elite speed that can take the top off of a defense. The Dolphins don't have either of those. You can look at all the numbers you want, but the only way to really make an evaluation in the game of football is using your eyes. Was Luck better than Tannehill this year? Yes. That's why he was the best QB prospect the NFL has seen in a long time. But trying to use statistics to prove that the Dolphins WR corps was better than most people feel is incredibly shortsighted IMO. Ask anyone who works in football what the Dolphins are missing and the first thing they'll tell you is a lack of playmakers in the receiving corps.

    Ron Jawarski: "Don't judge Tannehill's season in comparison to the three playoff-bound rookies. The needs are far greater on offense in Miami than they were in Indy, Washington and Seattle. I think the future is bright for Tannehill, the Dolphins just need to develop a more consistent run game and find some more receivers to target. I've been very impressed with his first season in the NFL."

    Bill Polian: "Tannehill was a question mark right up to the draft," Polian wrote. "He had a fair share of supporters and detractors, but what we saw as a collegian we're seeing from him again as a pro. His composure has been great early on and [he] has played very well without the benefit of a particularly good receiving corps.

    "That just tells you even more about how good a QB he already is and what he could be down the line. Additionally, the accuracy, the arm strength … the physical tools are all there, and he's been able to process decisions under fire."

    Phil Simms: "I think the Dolphins did the right thing and they've got this team going in the right direction. Now it's just about putting players around him and continuing to build around the quarterback."

    That's just a quick search. Those guys are paid to watch and know football. But I guess they don't know what they're talking about.
     
    resnor, Ducken, NolesNPhinsFan and 2 others like this.
  36. Jan 5, 2013 #36
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Well I think we were gonna do that anyway, weren't we? :headscratch: ;)
     
  37. Jan 5, 2013 #37
    seabass0795

    seabass0795 New Member

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    I agree, but I feel if he doesn't fix that aspect of his game this offseason it will haunt him in the next season and will cause struggles that will bring up more questions on whether or not he is a franchise qb. Adjusting to the speed of the game was one of his biggest flaws coming into the season, and as the season ends it is still an issue he is having. He needs to adjust this more rapidly to be a long-term answer at qb.
     
  38. Jan 5, 2013 #38
    sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Why is waiting being less certain? I just don't see the point in doing "the best we can do in terms of prediction" when he's going to be the quarterback next year and most likely the year after as well. Especially when the best we can do at the moment tells us very little. We'll see as the world sees whether he pans out or not.
     
  39. Jan 5, 2013 #39
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    But those opinions tell you nothing definitively about how good Ryan Tannehill would be with improvements in that area. There are plenty of QBs who have had adequate surrounding casts and still failed.
     
  40. Jan 5, 2013 #40
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Waiting while doing no predictive analysis is less certain than waiting and doing a predictive analysis that suggests he'll be a franchise QB.
     
    Stringer Bell likes this.
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