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The Talent Surrounding Ryan Tannehill: Part II

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Dec 24, 2012.

  1. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Why would I acknowledge that when QB rating is so strongly correlated with the consensus individual ability of such a wide range of quarterbacks over such a long period of the league's history?

    Here are the current QB ratings in the league. Notice the correlation with individual ability:

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

    It's a QB ability measure. Face it.
     
  2. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We have a good amount of cap, so we can re sign Hartline for 6 million per year and still sign Jennings.

    Hartline isn't resigning for 3.5 million. That's way too low.
     
  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Cool...I think it's a bit low as well,I think you have to take account that the player might be the smartest on the team, and how that impacts the group on the field, but, still wouldn't go over five..
     
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  4. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    5 million a year could happen. I know they were talking contract extension earlier this season but the details weren't revealed.
     
  5. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    So Tannehill is having a better season than Luck?
     
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  6. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    bro, you're the one who mentioned TO, not me. You can't mention a guy and then dismiss any examples related to him..... well, not unless you're a tremendous hypocrite. But since you brought it up, McNabb's 2nd best season behind his lone full year with TO was in 2009 with Jackson & Maclin. :lol:

    Vick BY FAR had his best season with Jackson & Maclin BTW.
    Are you stoned? Garrard has NEVER had an "elite" WR, unless your definition has changed to including 1 year with a 33 year old Torry Holt playing in his last season? The Jags WR corps was so bad they signed Laurent Robinson in FA and traded up for Blackmon.
    Have no idea what you just said.
    I think the Chicago Bears would disagree with you, you know--- considering they forked over 2 3rds and $9.0+ million a year for him. Hell, I bet Cutler would even disagree with you.
    So basically you're argument is "only HoF receivers make a QB look better; everyone else is all the same"? What about ALLLLL the other talented receivers who are clearly better than mediocre to average?
    no thanks to Bill Walsh and his innovative offense, eh. :unsure: BTW, Hartline & Bess are NOTHING compared to Dwight Clark and Freddie Solomon.
    Why are you swerving all over the place? Where are these tangents coming from? We were discussing WR talent and its impact on QB performance. But to address your question, Brady didn't need to put up Brady type numbers with an outstanding defense at his back.
    Again, what's your point? Hines Ward is a 4x Pro Bowler. Heath Miller is a 1st round Pro Bowl TE. Santonio Holmes is a playmaking 1st round WR.

    But if you INSIST on mention SB winning teams, how 'bout this for you:
    • Cowboys won 5 SBs with a mixture of 3 HOF WRs, 2 Pro Bowl WRs, 2 Pro Bowl TEs.
    • Steelers won 6 SBs with a mix of 2 HOF WRs, 2 Pro Bowl WRs, Pro Bowl TE.
    • Colts won 5 Championships/Super Bowls with a mixture of 2 HOF WRs, 1 likely HOF WR, 3 Pro Bowl WRs, 1 HOF TE, and 1 All Pro TE.
    • Redskins won 3 SBs with a HOF WR & 2 Pro Bowl WRs.
    • Raiders won 3 SBs with a mixture of a HOF WR, HOF candidate WR, HOF TE, and 1 All Pro TE.
    • 49ers won 3 SBs with a HOF WR, Pro Bowl WR, Pro Bowl TE.
    • Packers won 3 straight Championships/SB with 2 Pro Bowl receivers.... then won 2 more with a mix of 3 Pro Bowl WRs & 2 Pro Bowl TEs.
    • Broncos won 2 straight SBs with 2 Pro Bowl receivers and HOF TE.
    • Dolphins won 2 straight SBs with a HOF receiver playing a huge role in the offense's success.
    • Then there's the '11 Giants, '99 Rams, and '68 Jets with serious firepower at receiver.... and you could add in the '02 Bucs with 2 Pro Bowl receivers.
    what team? What's your point?
    I get a chuckle that you're trying to argue WR talent isn't important for QB success, nor important for succeeding in a passing league where the rules favor the receiver.
     
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  7. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    No no no. Based on what shou said...

    Tannehills qb ability is better than lucks. :yes:
     
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  8. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    LOL. If you say so. I find it hilarious that make all these ridiculous insinuations that WR talent doesn't really affect QB performance, then I pull out a bunch of examples showing you're wrong and you call it trolling. hahaha. You're the real troll here, Pods.
    WTH are you even saying? To argue WR isn't important just b/c teams have won SBs without elite ones is so flawed it's astonishing you even attempted it b/c you can make a similarly baseless argument involving EVERY aspect or position of the game. SBs have been won with terrible rushing teams, bad QBs, bad defenses, bad pass rushers, bad run defenses, bad secondaries, etc, so by your argument we shouldn't be concerned with having ANY goddam talent whatsoever, that we should build our friggin' team around bargain basement CFL players and then Super Bowl here we come. :unsure:
     
  9. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    You're probably not gonna get an answer to this, because it kills his entire argument.
     
  10. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    That's all you got? :lol:
    I see that's now your default argument when you have nothing to counter.

    You know what's great about the plethora of examples I gave, besides the fact I'm actually comparing QBs to THEMSELVES rather than to two other random QBs and one uncorrelated stat and thus discrediting your entire argument? It's the fact that, by you calling my comparisons "cherry picked", you're by default labeling your ENTIRE thread as "cherry-picked" because of its use of QBR as a means of comparison, making you the hypocrite of all hypocrites. :chuckle:

    yeah, let's see here:
    Phinsational: uses a proper controlled variable (IE: same QB) but looks at different receivers at his disposal to see how surrounding talent affects QB play and the passing offense's success.

    Shouright: uses 3 different QBs and compares their passer ratings and points scored in a desperate, uncorrelated attempt to make it seem like Tannehill's surrounding cast isn't much different than Matt Ryan's or Tom Brady's.
     
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  11. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, Hartline has a similar season to Austin's 2010, every category but Td's (7-2 so far).

    Cowboys already had Witten and proven Romo however, and irrc that was the yr they ditched TO, but it could have been 09.



    As for the question about Luck v Tannehill, Luck has more 4th qtr comebacks.

    Luck also has 150 more pass attempts.
     
  12. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Which is pretty much what you were doing.

    Gosh look, they added a all time steal at Wr in the draft and picked up another HoFer off of waivers and it made fmr #1 overall picks, and annual pro bowl Qb's play better!

    Astonishing really, next water will be wet and the sun is hot.

    If one looks at the higher powered offenses in the league today:

    -Already had the Qb
    -Already had a couple of pieces (NE tried to make do with a washed up Ocho and Branch)

    Look at the Falcons:

    -had Turner
    -Gonzo
    -White

    Added Jones

    BUT they added Gonzo the yr after Ryan's rook season (a playoff yr) waited another yr or 2 to trade up for Jones, and all the while Ryan played at a higher level than Tannehill has so far.

    INOW, sorry bubba, it takes time to do what you'd like to see, there are no quick fixes.

    Which is why dumping Bush is typical Dolphins dummy stuff, better to start in a hole and hope!

    Last response for this one.
     
  13. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Of course, he is only the 8th dolphins Wr to have 1k yds and is avging abt 15 ypc

    Dime o' dozen, better to take a shot on a castoff Wr, or even better, some hot rookie (the gurus say so) as it is dee-lightful to here:

    -Game needs to slow down for him
    -he is having trouble learning the offense
    -needs to run routes at full speed

    Blah blah, like bush, you keep the guys who make plays for you and upgrade around them, not start over at -0-.
     
  14. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Except he's not average. He's above average. Antonio Brown received a contract worth 7 million a season after a similar year like Hartline. He's not going to command that much most likely due to an age difference but he will get a similar contract. He's not going to settle for 4 million. Maybe 5 million but most likely it will cost up to 6 a season to keep him.
     
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  15. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Yep, then you add the #3 wr via the draft and sign your Te, as the #3 guy improves Hartline can be in his proper roll as the deep middle and out Wr

    I favor signing the Te over the Wr because it is just harder to develop a Te imo, they have to do more, and imo Egnew should be no kind of barrier to upgrading that position.
     
  16. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    While those 2 teams have good backs (especially Lynch)... a big part of what makes their rushing offenses so successful are the QBs themselves. Not just the rushing yards they acquire themselves, but a big part of the whole thing is how they free up the back. You saw the same thing with Vick back in Atlanta. They run a boot action off their runs which is something the defense has to respect, and that gets the defense to hesitate enough to really free things up for the blockers to get that extra step to seal a gap, and to put the back another step or 2 ahead of the defenders. It's extremely effective and impactful...
     
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  17. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Stop with the silly arguments. The Falcons WENT AFTER talented pass catchers. They made the effort, period. What you've been pushing is that we're essentially fine at WR, that all we need are a #3 and a continued search for guys who might be fighting for their last shot in the NFL. There's absolutely ZERO argument you can make that says an offense will be worsened by improving the talent at WR.
     
  18. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    And the league adjusts to that, this is one of the reasons why I think Tannehill is being developed properly.
     
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  19. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    There are no guarantees in the NFL,to let Hartline walk is to subtract 1k yds, letting Bush walk is to subtract another 1k yds

    IE, making more holes, the Falcons stabilized their OL, added Turner (sort of our Bush) stuck with Jenkins at Wr but added Gonzo the following year.

    They valued stability for the Rook/Young Qb over the Jest approach, they added Vet Wr's then could not afford them.

    This is also the Packers approach.

    I think it wise, add the #3 Wr (who can move to #2 then #1 if he play warrants it) but take a page out of the Falcons book and add that Vet Te who can get down the field.
     
  20. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    You don't avg 15 ypc and not make plays Aqua.
     
  21. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    :unsure:
    ah, yes, but how does Hartline compare to Miles Austin ON THE FIELD?! Stop this petty stat comparison nonsense. Hartline's stats would be in the basement if he were in Dallas. Hartline has, by default, been the #1 receiver this year in Miami. In Dallas he'd be BEHIND Dez, Austin, and Witten in the hierarchy and competing with Ogletree for playing time as the 4th target.
     
  22. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well you know how it is for Hartline. He's never covered or respected, so his 1014 yards were given to him not earned.
     
  23. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    "Petty stat"?

    Hartline had Romo tossing him the ball he'd be even better.


    Cannot wait for him to be resigned.
     
  24. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    Oh, in that regard I completely agree. I was more saying how the QB is helping the running game out in that scenario, but you're right, the QB is also helped by the playaction mirroring that same boot action in their run game, which often pulls in the safeties creating 1v1 coverage deep, with their receivers just needing to beat 1 man (which their receivers are plenty capable of). It can definitely be a crutch though and agree with developing him fro the start in the pocket, and then letting him to branch out once comfortable in the pocket. Tis year was a developmental year for Tannehill, so why not have him work on areas he is weaker at than having him able to lean on a crutch and get more practice at things that are already his strengths?

    Tannehill ran some read option with Sherman in college... so that wasn't a new thing for them. But I don't think that it was a coincidence that they waited so long to start having him do it. Limiting his rollouts is another example IMO.
     
  25. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    What?! ..... and what happens when this "#3" receiver goes up against #1 and #2 corners with talent? I take it you're not a fan of a thing called "consistency"?
    Sorry but Hartline has NO proper place as a team's primary deep guy. He couldn't catch a bad deep ball if his life depended on it, which is a significant attribute to a deep receiver considering the high percentage of deep passes NOT dropped right in the bucket, not to mention certain passes that are thrown to a specific SPOT rather than the actual receiver per se to where it's the receiver's job to get to that spot.
     
  26. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    And yet, we are 7th best in the league at catching the ball?

    What a conundrum!
     
  27. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    LOL. If Hartline had Romo tossing him the ball he's still be fighting for FOURTH spot with Ogletree on Dallas's pass catching hierarchy.


    Me too. How much you care to wager his contract is nothing CLOSE to Miles Austin's? Tell you what- I'll spot you 10 to 1 odds AND $30 million in contract money. Deal?
     
  28. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    What are you talking about "7th best"?
     
  29. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    Do you know where do we rank in yards after catch by chance?
     
  30. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Balls dropped, we are 26th or so at 22, when the ball is there our guys tend to catch them.

    I posted that stuff earlier in the thread
     
  31. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    29th, but oddly enough ahead of the Seahawks and Bears?

    http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=231

    DBess is tied with Garcon at 47th
    Hartline is ahead of N Washington at 72
    Reggie B is tied with Bowe at 67th

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/p...sort/receivingYardsAfterCatch/qualified/false

    Crazy thing is, Ronnie B is 16th in the league in YAC?

    Thigpen is 5th in the NFL in return yards.

    Would love to see him in the offense more
     
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  32. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's fair. He doesn't have strength like Nelson or speed like Jackson to actually scare teams.
     
  33. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Hartline's lack of playmaking ability is the very reason he does average 14.7 ypc. His lack of playmaking ability with the ball in his hands keeps him more removed from the short passing game where the nature of these plays would effectively serve to lower his ypc despite being a benefit to the offense, just like they do for every playmaking receiver given extra short pass opportunities, including inside the redzone. Case in point, Victor Cruz has 5 TDs at distances of 3, 6, 7, 9, and 10 yards pulling down his ypc. If you removed all the extra short yardage contributions from the league's true playmaking receivers and then compared their YPC to Hartline's you'd see that his is nothing special.
     
  34. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Heh, that Eli Manning guy, he must be pretty good.
     
  35. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Wrong. There's no correlation to that. How many passes were there that NEVER HAD A CHANCE to being dropped in the first place simply b/c our guys LACK THE TALENT or PHYSICAL REQUIREMENTS needed to even get their fingers on a slightly off target ball?
     
  36. uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

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    Despite the spiral of this thread I think the actual purpose was to show that while our supporting cast can definitely improve and help the quarterback, that in order for the offense to make huge gains tannehill must improve as well. I also believe that this is not a ridiculously impossible task. Looking at last years rookie quarterbacks cam newton improved from an 84.5 rating to an 88 thus far, Blaine gabbert improved from a 65.4 to a 77.4, Christian ponder improved from 70.1 to a 78.8, Andy dalton improved from a 80.4 to a 87. The one quarterback that has not improved his qb rating is jake locker, but he has yet to play a full season.

    Adding in the fact that tannehill has started fewer games than any of these quarterbacks since high school should lead us to believe that even without an improved group of play makers Tannehills qb rating will improve next year.

    Add in a receiver like Stedmon Bailey and a red zone threatening tight end like Joseph Fauria and I think that our scoring offense should improve enough for us to be a real threat next year.
     
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  37. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Yeah, b/c they throw the ball to themselves.

    Seriously? It is provable when Tannehill delivers the ball on target the receivers are better than the league avg at catching it, and yet one still tries to push a point that demonstrably incorrect?
     
  38. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    Doesn't surprise me about the YAC. That statistic is glaring. YAC is a QB helper that we just do not have. As far as Seattle having less overall YAC, that doesn't surprise me b/c they have so few pass attempts (last in the league by over 20 attempts). However, they have much greater YAC/attempt than we do at 3.1 YAC/attempt... where as we only get 2.7 YAC/attempt.

    To look at the QBs this thread is based on, the Falcons receivers average 3.5 YAC/attempt (#5 overall in YAC) and the Pats receivers average 3.6 YAC/attempt (#1 overall in YAC). The Falcons also have 3 receivers that have more YAC than any Fin, including 2 in the top 15, and the Pats have 2 higher than any Fin, including the #1 YAC player in Welker.
     
  39. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I'd suspect the Pats have far more passing attempts than our 449 and they have a HoF Qb tossing them.

    And Bess is our Best YAC player and he's likely done for the yr.
     
  40. uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

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    Was he really good in 2007 when his qb rating was 73.9?
     
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