James Walker thoughts on McShays first Mock Draft pick for dolphins

It can, but if that frees $10M in cap space that otherwise might have gone to re-sign Jake Long, maybe its not a bad thing. I'm personally undecided on the issue at this time, but is Jake Long + 1st round WR necessarily better than Mike Wallace + 1st round LT?

 

I hope it goes down like this.

Get Jennings if Philbin wants him. If we cant get him, get Wallace or Bowe.

Draft:

1st Pass Rusher if T'eo doesn't fall this far when he's that good like people here say he is.
2nd CB/WR or best player available.
3rd WR/CB or best player available.
Later rounds always best Player available looking for need positions (OL, TE, RB, Safety, LB, WR)

 

I think that's a fair criticism.

 

I think anything Alen runs on that front would make the majority of us look like hacks. Honest opinion.

 

Well, imo it is false value to follow that line of thinking Fineas, meaning the OL is valuable, but not as valuable as playmakers.

 

I documented on Twitter the past month that he was best fit in a "wide-9" (What a misnomer that is.) scheme. I think his fluidity has mostly been in circulation, whereas we should be discussing if he can actually get after the quarterback. What do you say of him?

 

I am in a position to strongly doubt that.

 

I'll get back to you. I have another game in the queue that I want to watch first.

But I'll say this. The part of his game that I consistently find to be under-appreciated is his ability to shock players with his hands. Whereas I think you bring up the right criticism about him flattening the edge, more often I see criticism related to him being soft or something like that, and that's the criticism I don't see.

 

Fair enough.

I think his hands are good but we see him not use them well enough. He tends to be outside conscious more than one should be, which is slightly puzzling as he's got the length to break inside once testing wide with his speed rush.

 

I must claim ignorance here but when I see something like that I often attribute it to being coached differently than he'll be coached in the pros.

And incidentally didn't Cam Wake have the same problem as recently as 2009? Or even parts of 2010?

 

But then what do you make of those that forever did it?

I believe so.

 

That concept is not predicated on thinking playmakers are more valuable than OL, or vice versa. It involves using premium resources on both, as both are important. The specific question I posed involved specific veteran players -- Long and Wallace. Neither is/was having a great year, but the trajectory of Long's play and injury history over the past few years doesn't make me feel great about paying him $10 million per year. I don't love spending that amount on Wallace either, and I think he'll get something like that, but you do generally have to overpay on a few players and WR is a position where rookies don't usually do all that much and the bust rate is fairly high. I'd be a lot more confident in Wallacemaking a significant impact than any rookie receiver. I'd be more confident in Long than a rookie LT too, but by how much? Outside the two disasters in Arizona, replacing Long with even the worst OTs is really only a difference of 2-4 sacks, 2-4 QB hits and maybe 10 hurries over the course of the season. While that ain't nothing, it's not worth $8-10 million IMO. And IMO he hasn't really been much better (if better at all) than average as a run blocker the last 2 years. On the other hand, Wallace has fewer yards, fewer receptions and a lower ypr than both Hartline and Bess despite having a better QB for most of the year (when Roethlisberger has played). He's not guaranteed to significantly improve the offense either. But his speed and explosiveness are elite and he is something of a proven commodity, at least as compared to a rookie WR.

I guess the argument can be made to use the money on Wallace (or another playmaker) and just get the LT in the middle rounds or as a mid-range FA, and then use the premium picks on more playmakers. I'm not sure I'm willing to be that cavalier about the LT position and Tannehill's blind side, but I might be convinced to be based on a specific player.

 

Werner is unbelievable... But I have a feeling his body will break down on him sooner rather than later. I see shoulder problems in his future, among other things.

No good basis for this at all. Just an instinct.

Besides he is gone top 5.

 

I wish he could also run the arc, dip the shoulder w some speed... But if you added that he'd just be unstoppable.

As it is, I love the idea of a power pass rusher to pair with Wake's edge rush. It's like Christmas every Sunday for a D Coord, because you would always line Wake up on the slower OT and Ansah on the weaker OT. Lol.

His instincts and awareness are great. And he is just DISRUPTIVE.

The same way Alan Page used to say he didn't care about how football was 'supposed' to be done, he just figured the shortest path to disrupting an offensive play was the real goal. So if that meant ****ing up the QBs handoff intersection with the RB, he did that. If it meant jumping to get in a passing line so the timing of the play was disrupted then that was also fine... He quickly assessed a play and how to muck it all up for the offense.

Disruptive.

I see Ansah do exactly that. He's smart at it precisely because he has no preconceived assumptions about football or what he 'should' do on a play... He was spared being indoctrinated by bad lower level coaches. So now he will totally destroy the blocking at the POA, he will
Shove an OT back into a QBs face. He'll pursue a player before they've even received the ball...

And he's a beast.

 

some good names on that list. Would love Allen, Teo and Elam. Not sold on Eifert… would rather have the kid out of Stanford.

 

If certain players like T'eo, Barr, Jone, and Werner are off the board I'd be willing to make Eiffert the first offensive skillset player off the board.

 

I don't see how folks aren't seing EIffert as our first offensive player on our board, were not taking Qb, or a lineman, so there isn't a more impactful offensive skillset player than Eiffert..it's a need as well, and I believe we need to go offense heavy..if Teo's there, I run to the podium, a few other defenders,I match em up to EIffrt in terms of impact.

 

Guys don't be surprised if the Fins draft a DE or Warmack given Irish's history. Warmack wouldn't be a popular pick but he's supposed to be a difference maker at the G position.

 

.... and we're in a position to strongly doubt your doubt.

 

I've never heard this phrase before.

 

Maybe if they don't resign Fasano.

I feel like 12 overall may be too high.

 

You've correctly identified the late first as the sweet spot for value in this draft in my opinion.

Eifert and also great pass rushers who would go at 12 in a DE class that was less deep than this one.

I am very conflicted about that first pick and how to maximize value from it.

But I absolutely expect to see us trade our second rounder and third rounder to move back into the bottom of the first for a pass rusher. I just hope it's Ansah.

 

With that first pick, a pass rusher doesn't make sense because you can get one almost exactly as good ten to fifteen spots later.

No WRs deserve the 12 spot.

It's too high for Eifert.

Yet trading back will mean more good players instead of elite players, which has been our whole problem on this roster, so I don't think we can afford to trade down anymore.

The only value I am seeing at 12 is Banks at corner, but you would have to believe him to be Revis-like and I don't think he is quite at that level.

 

if the blue chip defenders are off the board, I agree that there is a lot of value later, but don't get it twisted, Eiffert is not gonna drop to far..need to start looking at the other teams needs in that dept that pick after us.

 

Isn't that why the Draft is still a roll of the dice? I've seen just about every weakness there is on a player get better and I've also seen just about every weakness stay the same.

 

As I wrote in the Club we ought to be thinking a little bit more about Dee Milliner than we are. It's not that I think he's a slam dunk or that I'm backing him as my favorite option but let's be honest fan favorites like Manti Te'o and Bjoern Werner will likely be gone already, for all we know another recent fan favorite Anthony Barr may not even come out, and the Dolphins just lost 1/2 of their long term plan at the cornerback position when they traded Vontae Davis. You can't have a good defense in this league if you can't cover. I don't know if anyone's noticed but Nolan Carroll has been in the coaches' dog house since the Buffalo game when he accrued 4 penalties. Richard Marshall was not good at all on the perimeter before getting hurt and the Dolphins paid him like a quality #3 corner (and they were by far the highest bidder too), they did not pay him like a #2. He should be playing safety anyway but good luck getting Miami's coaches to agree with that.

For all everyone likes to talk about taking the best player available the reality is very few teams have a true devotion to that idea. They game the system so that they're taking a need and then try and claim it was the best player available too.

I've seen literally no mock drafts with Miami taking Milliner at #11 or #13 or wherever they end up picking. That should change. He's one of the most likely picks I can think of.

 

Feel free to point them out as I've seen none.

 

Not sure if these were what you were referring to, but interesting nonetheless:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/50021425/Air-Force-Academy-Installing-The-Base-3-4
http://www.scribd.com/doc/56165263/Air-Force-Academy-Defending-the-Spread

 

That looks to be some of it. I got it from a HS coach I was in contact with when DeRuyter gave the clinic.

 

Not as much as it's portrayed.

 

IMO Barr, Woerner and Jones are superior prospects to the other DEs available. I would take any one of those happily with the first pick I expect to end up between 8 and 10. I think that outside of maybe T'eo, any other pick at that spot will be a reach or at least of lesser value. Obviously they may still end up being a great player, but in terms of value, we would have dropped down a tier.

 

Depends who is doing the portraying. Those out there claiming it's a "crap shoot" are clearly wrong but when you boil it down there is an absolutely unknowable can't predict the future element to the Draft, and it's actually a pretty huge factor.

This is human behavior prediction at the individual level. There's nothing harder. Weather men have it easier. People who predict human behavior at the macro level have it easier.

 

I wasn't originally all that high on the likes of Merriman, Pierre-Paul, Aldon Smith..... So I guess I'd take any DE that seemed worthy and be pretty excited about it at this point. I was hopin we could nab Bruce Irvin in the 3rd last year. Also wanted Aj Jenkins to be the other 3rd round pick. O well.