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Ryan Tannehill's TD/INT Ratio

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by MonstBlitz, Sep 30, 2012.

  1. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    It's funny, usually I'd see a 2/6 TD to INT ratio and I'd be disappointed, but not with Tannehill. I see a QB who's played in 4 NFL games who has done a lot of good things.

    I've seen Tannehill make every throw there is to make. He commands the huddle. He calls the shots and makes adjustments at the line. He is great at play-action. He torches the blitz. He is athletic and has excellent pocket presence.

    Obviously he's made some mistakes, but the good has far outweighed the bad so far IMO. I've never been more excited about the future, and present of this team from the QB position.
     
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  2. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Agreed. I think what we want to see from Tannehill going forward is to just start having more games where he throws (or even runs as Ophinerated hinted at earlier in this thread) more TDs than turnovers. Start there and then worry about the overall TD/INT ratio next season.
     
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  3. TiP54

    TiP54 Bad Reputation

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    Caro makes his field goals - were 3 and 1 with that TD to INT ratio.
     
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  4. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    That's b/c he's so obviously showing development. That's what people should focus on rather than stats at this point. Actually, I would say it's incredibly fast development. Usually the development is much slower and more difficult to discern, more of a one step forward a half-step back thing. I look at a guy like Matt Ryan who was helped by a vet TE and a great running game early on. Arguably he couldn't have played as well as RT did yesterday, in the absence of a strong run, game until about year 4 of his development. This Ryan is showing great command of the offense, but it's five years in and he's got great skill players. I would say RT is maybe a year behind Ryan in terms of his command of the offense. If we get some skill players around RT and give him a year to get used them (and them to learn the offense) and he could be scary good. Obviously, we have to hit on a few key players (pass rusher and one or two pass catchers [CB would be nice too, but less important if we add the pass rusher]), but the QB is the hard part. I'm incredibly excited about our future. I think we have a chance to have the better QB on any given week and that gives us a great chance to win regardless of the opponent. As he grows and the team builds around him (to give him a greater margin for error) our chance of success each week grows.
     
  5. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Is it ******ed for me to wonder if this was similar to what Colts fans felt in Manning's first year?
     
  6. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Once again, I'm not focusing on the stat to criticize Tannehill. I agree with everything you said. The purpose of this thread was to point out one of the big reasons the win loss record is what it is as opposed to missed field goals. Not to have anyone be worried about Ryan Tannehill.
     
  7. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The other thing about TD/INT ratio is that it's artificially deflated by choosing to run in the red zone. We scored five touchdowns against the Raiders, for example, and four of them were on runs, one by Tannehill himself. You subtract the two freak play INTs against Houston, and give Tannehill two of those four running TDs against the Raiders, and now all of the sudden his TD/INT ratio is 4 to 4, and his QB rating is 76.8.
     
  8. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    You can look at it as simply TD/turnover ratio. The reason TD/INT ratio correlates so highly with winning is because it is a passing league. But you're right, if a team can effectively score a few rushing TDs in a game, those can help to mitigate problems with a TD/INT ratio.
     
  9. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    For the record, I wasn't criticizing the thread. I haven't even read through the whole thread. I was just responding to the post I quoted which was talking about development and the future.
     
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  10. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    No what I'm saying is that if you're on the one yard line and you choose to barrel over the goal line with Javorskie Lane, that's one fewer opportunity for a TD pass you've given your QB, and one fewer chance to improve his TD to INT ratio.

    BTW, when you take the individual components of QB rating (completion percentage, YPA, yards, TDs, INTs) and you correlate each component with wins while controlling for overall QB rating, the only component of QB rating whose correlation with wins remains as high as QB rating overall is YPA, which is surprising because you would think it would be TDs, since they represent points. I suspect that's the case because winning teams get lots of rushing TDs, as well.

    If there's something Tannehill needs to improve on, it's his completion percentage and his YPA. He did just that against the Cardinals, however. His completion percentage was 63.4% (so far it's 55.9% on the year), and his YPA was an astronomical 10.5 (so far it's 7.3 on the year, boosted significantly by the game in Arizona). I suspect that's why we were in the game until the end despite losing the turnover battle 4 to 2.
     
  11. finsincebirth

    finsincebirth Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't say so. While I never watched Manning his rookie year I have heard people say that he throw a bunch of picks, but you could just tell he was going to be good. I think that's the same thing we see with Ryan. Sure he's thrown a bunch of picks, but he doesn't look like a Blaine Gabbert out there.
     
  12. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I don't think its necessarily surprising. If you have a high YPA, it will result in TDs. If you have a lot of TDs, that doesn't necessarily lead to more TDs. One is the signal, the other is just noise.

    One other thing to keep in mind is that net yards per attempt is better than just YPA. (passing yards-sack yards)/(pass attempts+sacks).
     
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  13. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Right, but what it means is that Tannehill is better off improving his YPA than improving his number of TD passes, since a high YPA will likely create either TD passes or rushing touchdowns. That 10.5 YPA in the Cardinals game was just phenomenal.

    He's also doing well avoiding sacks, so I suspect he's doing well with regard to the stat you mentioned. Do you have his number and how it compares to the rest of the league?
     
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  14. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's Pro Football Focus for tipped passes and Football Outsiders for the interceptions coming from it.

    Might actually be wrong with the Fitzpatrick, it's 19 now that I look at it, I was going from memory.
     
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  15. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Thanks, I need to add in Football Outsiders as an info source for obscure stats. It's telling to know how many picks come from passes tipped at the LOS.
     
  16. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Not really to focus on Ryan's TD/INT ratio as it didn't change but just wanted to talk about the turnover battle after the discussions we had about this last week.

    I apologize for no link as it was radio discussion. One of the Sirius NFL radio guys was talking about a meeting he had with Ryan Tannehill prior to the Bengals game. I forget which one. Might have been Adam Schein (douche, I know). He mentioned how he handed Tannehill a piece of paper with the statistic of teams winning percentage when they win and lose the turnover battle. Was very impressed with Tannehill etc. Said he took the turnover thing very seriously.

    I'm sure it had very little to do with Adam Schein and everything to do with Philbin who once again mentioned the turnover battle in post game comments. Philbin knew the reason his team was 1-3 instead of 3-1. Despite the Lane fumble and the flukey turnover on the kickoff (which should have been overturned) it looks like Tannehill and team got the message.

    It is not a coincidence at all that this team has won the turnover battle in 2/5 games and is 2-3 as a result. If they keep winning that battle good things will happen.
     
  17. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    +2 in the right direction today.

    4/6. The way he's playing, I expect it to be on the right side of 1 before the season is over.
     
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  18. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    5/9. Which is horrible. Put the anointing oil away until we see how Tannehill bounces back from this performance.
     
  19. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

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    When it rains it pours, and holy **** it poured today.
     
  20. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Eh, Int's don't bother me and THill does what most rookies do, throw int's in bunches.

    It's the lack of Td's that is troubling.
     
  21. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    While I agree 5/9 isn't good, a rookie QB having a rookie QB game will not change my stance on Tannehill. He's had more good games this year than bad.
     
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  22. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

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    Honestly I want to see Tannehill have a 3td day.....but I am beginning to wonder if any QB could with this offense. It was one thing to live with poor WRs but I wasn't expecting our OL to be this horrible outside of Pouncey and our RBs to play with no drive.
     
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  23. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    I said it in another thread but.....the Chicago Bears defense has more passing TDs than Ryan Tannehill.
     
  24. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    You are right to expect more from the Oline. We have way to many high draft picks on that line for it to performing the way it is. If it continues the way it is, it provides more ammunition to fire Ireland at the end of the season.

    As to the current INT/TD ratio. We have no redzone threats or a big playmaker to take one to the house. Only person close to that is Reggie Bush and he has played terrible the past few weeks.
     
  25. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you're letting TD to INT ratio be the primary thing to evaluate a quarterback with you have no business trying to do that and should pursue other hobbies.
     
  26. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    there is no sugarcoating it though it looks ugly 5 TD passes after 9 games....looks ugly no matter if its an indicator or not, i realize he has a rushing TD as well
     
  27. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    TD/INT ratio isn't really a good way to measure performance. Net YPA is much better. Ryan Tannehill is currently 23rd in NYPA, which is pretty discouraging.
     
  28. Ducken

    Ducken Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    I am so glad that how many picks a rookie throws in his first 9 games is such an accurate indicator of how well a his career is going to be. Payton had 18, Joe Montana 10, John Elway 13, Eli 11, Dan Fouts 15. All these guys must have been bums. Come on guys he is a rook and a darn good one. Will he be as good as these guys doubtful but maybe. IMHO we have a really good/great young QB that we will be proud of for years to come.

    And yes I did ignore the Td part of this conversation as I Believe if he had good receivers his TDs would be well above his current total. And the TD total is also dependent on the receivers doing their part, where the int he is capable all on his own.
     
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  29. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    We don't throw deep. I don't know if you fault that on T-hill.
     
  30. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    The offense has shown it can be successful in the passing game. I put most of yesterday's loss on the coaching. I'm not sure you could really take away much more than that. Even if you want to complain about the talent on the roster, it is still far superior to what the Titans had.
     
  31. jsizzle

    jsizzle Banned

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    Don't you know logic doesn't fly with the chicken littles??? You will need to stop making sense!
     
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  32. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I mean, I'm not sure how you can extrapolate it into being as meaningful as people are. It's a big part of QB rating, but other than that?

    He's not thrown for a load of touchdowns, but at the end of the day I'm not sure I would characterize him as being woeful in that area, and at the end of the day the Dolphins red zone TD % is exactly average(ranked 16th), and I'm not sure it's the running game that is really bailing them out there.

    Not sure the interceptions are super troubling, either. All but three have come in two games, and there's only a few I would characterize as markedly bad decisions.
     
  33. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    What do you view as the problem with the coaching?
     
  34. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    The team just looked like it didn't have any focus yesterday.
     
  35. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    That's a player leadership problem IMO.

    My guess, like I said last week, is that there are no players on the team who have leadership roles who have also assumed a sense of ownership over the team and its long-term direction. Consequently it's susceptible to dips like these that IMO represent the absence of the kind of upward trajectory that comes from having long-term goals the players use as inspiration both within themselves and with each other.
     
  36. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    If you don't understand how highly TD/INT ratio correlates with winning, you should probably stop pretending to be smarter than you really are.
     
  37. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I'd say both are good. You don't think TD/INT ratio is a good way to evaluate a QB's performance when it has an extremely high correlation with winning? Show me one successful NFL QB post 2005 who has had a TD/INT ratio under 1 and been part of a successful season if he's started most of the games in said season. It doesn't happen.

    Again, this isn't me trashing Tannehill. He is a young QB, but if he's going to take the next step there simply has to be more TDs and less interceptions. It's that simple. And yes, YPA needs to be better as well. But it's about points on the board and not gift wrapping points for the other team more than anything.
     
  38. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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  39. jsizzle

    jsizzle Banned

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  40. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    The stat that concerns me the most is

    20 rushes for 23 yards. Which is 1.2 yards per carry.

    Chad "the statue" Henne's lowest yards per carry as a Dolphin is 1.5.

    I am not expecting Vick numbers, however I am expecting an Aaron Rodgers 4.3 yards per carry.
     

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