Davone Bess: The League's Biggest Impact Player

My position will change when they demonstrate the ability to be significantly more efficient as the field shrinks (which includes scoring).

 

Rafael, I think I recall Hakeem Nicks being your guy of choice for us in the 1st round of '09, correct?
Would you trade Hartline or Bess (or both of them) straight up for a healthy Nicks?

 

I'm sorry but that's just an excuse.
Playmaking receivers still make plays regardless of whether or not the QB is a rookie.
Brandon Marshall would've had 1300+ yards and a 10+ TDs with Henne & Moore last year had he not dropped at least half a dozen of them, and that's with teams TRYING to stop him.

 

Honestly I don't this this argument matters. Hartline and Bess aren't exactly the best red zone targets regardless of QB play. Especially down near the goal line. Neither guy is really quick enough to get immediate separation and neither is large enough to be a physical mismatch. I'd assume Bess to be the "better" red zone option but guys who get open due to great intermediate routes aren't going to be as successful near the goal line where everything is condensed and those windows shrink.

It's why running the ball is so important inside the ten and why teams value a TE who is gifted with athleticism.

 

At our current rate, we'll have 3 TDs at the starting WR position for the year, so I guess we'll be drafting another QB in the first round since it's all on the QB as you say considering even Andy Dalton's WRs had 14 TDs among them last year.

 

My issue with Bess near the goal line is that he isn't a threat towards the outside on a fade. Teams will generally shade him towards the middle of the field and cheat to take away slant/drag routes he can create that separation on.

My issue with Hartline near the goal line is that while he is larger, he isn't really a threat on inside routes if you play him tight off the ball. The throwing window would be tiny.

Great TE's make their living near the end zone. I'd actually like to see Egnew active on game days just as a target inside the ten. He had some drop issues in the preseason but he also showed he can create separation.

 

It's 1 TD in 5 games. That's a little more than just the QB.
QB has nothing to do with their lack of playmaking ability, as there's a reason both aren't and wont be paid playmaking, TD-scoring money.

Duper, Clayton, Moore, and Rose didn't have a problem catching TDs during their QB's rookie year.
Atlanta's 2008 receivers caught 4 times as many TDs (and that's w/o Julio Jones), as did Cincy's last year.
Flacco's poor receiving corps caught significantly more than 1 TD per 5 games. Ditto for Newton.
Sanchez's & Bradford's mediocre receiving corps caught 3 times as many.

Respectfully, it seems like you're trying to scapegoat every QB Bess & Hartline have had for their deficient ability to score.

 

Then let me restate it another way:
Hartline & Bess had the 12th rated QB throwing them the ball last year, and that 12th rated QB was beaten out by Tannehill, rookie or not. Even with the 12th rated 2011 QB and the guy who beat him out throwing the ball, they still have only scored 4 TDs combined in 17 games. So basically you want to put the entire onus of our scoring on the TE, RB, and FB to make up for lack of WR scoring ability? That'll make us 1 dimensional.

I already listed the stats showing how drastically the passing game drops off once we cross midfield at hit the 40 yard line. It's an Ambien kind of drop off, like it fell asleep and is virtually non-existent. I have a difficult time believing it's b/c the QB is suddenly playing poorly rather than the WRs having a tougher time getting open as the field shortens and making plays in the endzone.

 

Dude, I'm all for getting more playmakers...Let's just be grateful for what we have, which is already more than we expected.





Cautionary tale of Yatil Green or something?...

 

I can't believe all the negativity in this thread... I think the Dolphins have surprised a lot of people and teams and its because of Gentlemen like Bess and Hartline. I agree 100% with the OP. The Dolphins are competitive. There are lots of good reasons for that, and one of them, is above average play of our 1 and 2 receivers.

 

Yes, it did.

Miami has played one team that has a losing record.

Most fans attribute the effectiveness of the passing game to the wide receivers entirely too much when in reality, their contribution is minimal at best. What you are seeing in Miami is two wide receivers who had mediocre production with a mediocre quarterback who are now suddenly productive with a competent quarterback. It's all the quarterback.

 

Davone Bess is still #1 in the NFL after week 5 in WPA. Wes Welker is #2. Brian Hartline checks in at #16.

 

WADR, how many hangups would you receive if you called all 31 other teams and offered Bess & Hartline straight up for their best or most promising pair of receivers?

 

Is that your official pyschological summation of phinsational's thought processes?

 

There are a few biases I see in regard to Bess and Hartline. Hartline's white, doesn't run a great 40, and isn't physically imposing. He doesn't look like a stereotypically good NFL WR. Bess is similar. He doesn't run a great 40 and isn't physically imposing, like a Calvin Johnson. Combined with how they look, they don't run the flashy routes that show up on highlights. And finally, they haven't generated the eye-popping stats that the stereotypically good NFL WR gets (>1000s yards and around 10 TDs). So based on what we are told by the sports media, they don't look like what the best WRs are supposed to look like (both physically and on paper in regard to their production).

Until now, I think a lot of their lack of elite production has been due to the fact that they haven't had good QBs throwing them the ball. Wes Welker didn't all of the sudden develop new skills in NE. To my knowledge, he didn't get any faster and his hands didn't get better. The difference is that he now had a good QB and he was getting thrown to more often. The latter is often overlooked. Currently, Hartline is 7th in total targets (passes thrown to him). Bess is 27th, and that's with a teammate getting the 7th most targets. So they are both being thrown to a lot, whereas last year we threw to Brandon Marshall a ton, 8th most in the league. While Bess and Hartline ranked 52nd and 63rd last year.

So the reason they are producing so well this year is due to the fact that they are getting more passes thrown their way and they are performing efficiently (catching a lot of them) when the pass comes to them. We are having a hard time believing they are producing like elite WRs because they have never done so before and they don't look like the typically elite WRs, aside from Wes Welker. That's not to say Bess and Hartline (or Welker) are as physically talented as the stereotypically elite WR. But they are producing like them. And that should tell you something about how, in general, we evaluate WRs and value the skills we covet in WRs.

 

If you asked me that in August, I'd say 31 hangups, but now I'd say more like only 25 or so. Cleveland wouldn't hangup. Maybe Buffalo wouldn't.

 

A lot of your posts have this aura of arrogance, much like this. You're dismissing his point by countering it with pure conjecture being used as the basis. You can't do that. Hartline will get more than 3 million a year. A significant amount more, if you believe what the pundits seem to be saying.

I, personally, think he'll get 4-5 years at 5 million per but 2-3 million per guaranteed. Something like 5 years/23 million/14 guaranteed.

 

This to me is more of a function of needing Bess than Bess being the biggest impact player in the league. We use him in crucial game saving situations such as 3rd and long pass plays. By the nature of these statistics, that has a big impact on the game. That is not to say that he is an impact player. Just that his bread and butter plays tend to have big impacts on games.

Calvin Johnson by comparison was the top player in 2011 because of raw domination. With him so went the Detroit Lions.

 

So the Lions needed Calvin Johnson

 

I'm trying to understand this take here. So, you are telling me that a player who makes an impact in crucial situations that have an overall effect on winning the game is in fact not really an impact player?

 

dont get that at all..just live and let live man.

 

Any stat that is based on instances and doesn't take into consideration, usage......is not much of a stat.

This however is a pretty solid metric, but I would be careful in using stats such as these to base opinions on. This is very similar to WP in basketball.

 

I'm saying different WRs have different strengths and weaknesses. With Jones he's not as consistent as Bess and Hartline.

Yes, Philbin wants multiple WRs, but he already has two of them and they're not just 3s and 4s as you contend.

Obviously you always want to upgrade whatever you can. It's just that your opinion of how good our WRs are currently is in the minority. And you're inexplicably acting like they're our biggest weakness, when their production shows the opposite.

 

Straight up, yes, but I wouldn't give more than that and salary would be a consideration. The goal is to have multiple WRs. While I have Nicks as better, the reality is that our team production might only marginally if at all. Our best option would be to add another good WR to Hartline and Bess.

 

Respectfully, I listed their production inside the 40, and it's quite clear what it shows.
10 receptions in 31 targets
Only 126 of their 820 yards (15%)
0 redzone yards
4.4 avg
0 TDs
32% completions
32.5 QBR

They currently do combine for our biggest weakness..... inside scoring range (excluding Carpenter).

Are you disagreeing with football being a situational game?
If you had a choice, would you want both Bess & Hartline as our primary 2 targets inside scoring range or would you exchange them out for someone else during this situation?

 

So straight up you're essentially saying their production isn't good enough for you as primary targets if you'd trade them both for Nicks provided it doesn't kill us cap-wise. That's basically what I've been arguing.

Considering we're currently spending about $5 million/year on the WR position combined (which is good for the league's lowest or close to it), I think we could afford to add a receiver in FA and still afford to pay a 2nd rounder the low salary he'll command thanks to the reduced rookie wage scale. Nicks' and Cruz's production cost NY very little to this point, and I'd argue their presence (along with Manningham's) was a significant reason for both Eli's outstanding production and NY's Super Bowl run. Do you believe the same would've happened if Nicks & Cruz had been replaced by Hartline & Bess?

I guess that depends on how you define production. I include their TDs in the production category, as well as their team's production inside scoring range with them on the field. In that regard, Nicks' scoring production is double Hartline & Bess's combined since 2009. I'm guessing that's a big reason why you'd trade them both straight up for Nicks if the cost weren't too high.

About the hypothetical "guy" you're talking about adding to Bess & Hartline, would you want him seeing more or less targets than Bess or Hartline in an ideal world?

I don't get why you're basically agreeing with me while telling me my opinion is in the minority.

 

Here are some interesting numbers.

32.2% of the yards Ryan Tannehill has amassed this year through the air are YAC yards. Who else is around this 32%?

Eli Manning (32.4% 511 yards of 1,579 yards are YAC)
Matt Ryan (32.1% 483 yards of 1,507 yards are YAC)

 

That YAC is yards after catch, not yards after contact IIRC. That's a testament to Philbin & Sherman's offensive design combined with the fact it's easier to pick up more yards after the catch when you're not being bracketed like Julio/Roddy or Nicks/Cruz on most throws so you don't have a guy sitting on top of you waiting to bring you down upon reception. Are you so quick to forget how quickly Marshall was tackled much of last year b/c he constantly had defenders draped on him?

If you're trying to use a completely uninterpreted stat to insinuate Bess & Hartline are better YAC receivers than the aforementioned 4 receivers, then I think you should Twitter Ryan, Manning, and Tannehill and ask them whom they'd prefer throwing to and which ones have more YAC/playmaking potential on their own merit. There's a reason Matt Ryan has suddenly emerged as a the league's most productive passer on paper, and it's not b/c he's the league's best passer.

Swap Hartline & Bess for Nicks & Cruz and poll every NFL coach how much they believe Eli's production would drop compared to Tannehill's increasing as a result.


BTW, how many of those YAC have resulted in TDs the past 2 years compared to Hart & Bess?

 

Or is it possible you over value those same players due to your familiarity with them? Everyone tends to defend "what is theirs" or "their own" and when we don't we are classified as having some form of exotic envy?

 

We all are right? I think?...I hope?

 

For starters, here's Roddy White & Julio Jones:
21 for 34
195 yards
5.73 avg
4 TDs
61.8% completion
117.0 QBR
15 1st downs
38 YAC