1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Statistical Domination in the Midst of a Loss

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Sep 30, 2012.

  1. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
    0
    Dec 13, 2007
    Amazing the stat line on this one, if you consider who won and who lost.

    The stats I've bolded below are the ones most strongly correlated with winning. See if you can figure out which column belongs to which team in this game.

    [TABLE="class: mod-data"]
    [TR="class: odd"]
    [TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs
    [/TD]
    [TD]21
    [/TD]
    [TD]19
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="align: left"]Passing 1st downs
    [/TD]
    [TD]15
    [/TD]
    [TD]18
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="align: left"]Rushing 1st downs
    [/TD]
    [TD]5
    [/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="align: left"]1st downs from Penalties
    [/TD]
    [TD]1
    [/TD]
    [TD]1
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency
    [/TD]
    [TD]6-16
    [/TD]
    [TD]4-16
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency
    [/TD]
    [TD]1-1
    [/TD]
    [TD]2-2
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: odd"]
    [TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Plays
    [/TD]
    [TD]74
    [/TD]
    [TD]71
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: odd"]
    [TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards
    [/TD]
    [TD]480
    [/TD]
    [TD]297
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: odd"]
    [TD="class: bi, align: left"]Yards per play
    [/TD]
    [TD]6.5
    [/TD]
    [TD]4.2
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Drives
    [/TD]
    [TD]16
    [/TD]
    [TD]15
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: odd"]
    [TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing
    [/TD]
    [TD]394
    [/TD]
    [TD]269
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="align: left"]Comp - Att
    [/TD]
    [TD]26-41
    [/TD]
    [TD]29-48
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="align: left"]Yards per pass
    [/TD]
    [TD]9.6
    [/TD]
    [TD]5.6
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
    [/TD]
    [TD]2
    [/TD]
    [TD]2
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="align: left"]Sacks - Yards Lost
    [/TD]
    [TD]4-37
    [/TD]
    [TD]8-55
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: odd"]
    [TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing
    [/TD]
    [TD]86
    [/TD]
    [TD]28
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts
    [/TD]
    [TD]29
    [/TD]
    [TD]15
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="align: left"]Yards per rush
    [/TD]
    [TD]3.0
    [/TD]
    [TD]1.9
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: odd"]
    [TD="class: bi, align: left"]Red Zone (Made-Att)
    [/TD]
    [TD]1-3
    [/TD]
    [TD]2-3
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: odd"]
    [TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties
    [/TD]
    [TD]4-40
    [/TD]
    [TD]6-62
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: odd"]
    [TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers
    [/TD]
    [TD]4
    [/TD]
    [TD]2
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost
    [/TD]
    [TD]2
    [/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: even"]
    [TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
    [/TD]
    [TD]2
    [/TD]
    [TD]2
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: odd"]
    [TD="class: bi, align: left"]Defensive / Special Teams TDs
    [/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: odd"]
    [TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession
    [/TD]
    [TD]35:00
    [/TD]
    [TD]31:31
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    The only thing I can take from this is that the turnover margin, which actually has the strongest correlation with winning, overcame the other areas of play in this one and was responsible for the loss.

    I don't think we're a team that can afford to lose the turnover battle. We don't have the talent to create that kind of margin for error.
     
    Disnardo likes this.
  2. WhiteIbanez

    WhiteIbanez Megamediocremaniacal

    2,155
    837
    0
    Aug 10, 2012
    We should have put Matt Moore in the football game! :up:
     
    jsizzle likes this.
  3. PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend

    8,365
    4,211
    113
    Jan 5, 2010
    the next dimension
    Legadu Naanee had 1 catch,


    DOMINATION!!!!
     
    Hiruma78 and Ophinerated like this.
  4. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
    0
    Dec 13, 2007
    That's actually never been my position, personally, but glad to have ya aboard! :lol:
     
  5. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

    29,473
    34,332
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Arizona made the big plays when needed a we didn't. The Tannehill smack down on the snap resulting in the fumble, the multiple 4 th down conversions and the INT in OT where Tanny got hit. They won by executing when they had no margin of error
     
    GMJohnson likes this.
  6. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,442
    24,982
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    This team needs to just start calling a full TO halfway through the 4th quarter and have an entire team meeting, am I right. :pity:
     
  7. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

    25,411
    5,743
    113
    Dec 6, 2007
    Should have ran it more with Bush...
     
  8. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

    25,809
    39,060
    113
    Dec 21, 2007
    Berlin,Germany
    i have absolutely no problem with today's play calling on offense, sherman called a great game imo, this was all about execution
     
    Disnardo likes this.
  9. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

    7,760
    3,486
    113
    Sep 4, 2010
    Maui, Hawaii
    What this really shows is that statistics really doesn't mean much in sports. It all comes down to which teams make the plays when the game is on the line. If statistics were what counted, there would be no reason to keep score.
     
  10. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

    7,760
    3,486
    113
    Sep 4, 2010
    Maui, Hawaii
    You are 100% correct AL13.
     
  11. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
    0
    Dec 13, 2007
    Actually it doesn't show that, because the statistic that correlates most strongly with winning -- turnovers -- predicted who won the game.

    There's a reason why coaches say "we have to protect the ball" and "we have to win the turnover battle." It's because that WINS GAMES.
     
  12. WhiteIbanez

    WhiteIbanez Megamediocremaniacal

    2,155
    837
    0
    Aug 10, 2012
    You liked that little pitch out play? I mean I know execution is one thing but Sherman forgot to take his meds on that one.
     
  13. uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

    284
    97
    0
    Dec 13, 2010
    I thought it was qb rating last week...
     
    Ohio Fanatic likes this.
  14. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
    0
    Dec 13, 2007
    QB rating is right up there with turnovers, and oddly enough, despite his 400+ passing yards, Ryan Tannehill's QB rating was only 2.5 points higher than Kevin Kolb's.
     
  15. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

    7,760
    3,486
    113
    Sep 4, 2010
    Maui, Hawaii
    I agree that turnovers are a major variable regarding wins and losses. I just don't put much stock in all the other statistics you listed above. I apologize for not reading though your entire comments before writing my response. I was stuck on all the other stats you listed and failed to read your comments regarding the turnovers. Sorry about that.
     
    shouright likes this.
  16. uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

    284
    97
    0
    Dec 13, 2010
    Higher .... Hold on... So we won right?
     
  17. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Played well enough to overcome a -1, but not a -2.
     
    shouright likes this.
  18. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
    0
    Dec 13, 2007
    The correlation isn't perfect, as few are. :)
     
    uab_phin likes this.
  19. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

    29,473
    34,332
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Like last week, one of out two stops on 4th down and we win. Last week it was one out of 2 FG's.

    Luck plays in to this.
     
  20. uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

    284
    97
    0
    Dec 13, 2010
    Haha I'm just messing with you I really wish that we could have tannehills fumble back. Part of the growth process I guess.
     
    shouright likes this.
  21. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
    0
    Dec 13, 2007
    Should've been calling running plays there IMO. Tannehill had won the game for the team. It was the team's turn to return the favor at that point. Should've made them do it.
     
    Eop05, PhinsRDbest and Bumrush like this.
  22. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

    29,473
    34,332
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Agree 100%.
     
  23. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

    29,473
    34,332
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Was it 2nd or 3rd down? I don't recall
     
  24. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
    0
    Dec 13, 2007
    2nd and 8 after Bush had gained 7, 15, and 2 yards on the previous three plays.
     
    Eop05 likes this.
  25. Califin

    Califin Well-Known Member

    2,050
    403
    83
    Nov 26, 2007
    Whats frustrating is that plays were consequently made, that seemed to otherwise nullify the turnover.

    [whine]I despise the idea of being that pitiful team, who's woeful December record, fails to reveal numerous matchups throughout the year, where the team almost won, yet somehow got punked in the closing minutes.
    Deserving to win and losing, particularly on a continual basis can be more defeating than just getting beat.[/whine]
     
  26. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    10,641
    2,121
    113
    Dec 8, 2007
    Hialeah, FL
    Reminds me of the Colts game with Penny in 2009...

    That game we had the TOP 45-15 and we still lost, due to big plays allowed and not executng when we needed also...

    We are coming aound, most of us noted that this team will struggle early this year and will get better as the season progresses... I am still hoping that be true...
     
    gunn34 likes this.
  27. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    10,641
    2,121
    113
    Dec 8, 2007
    Hialeah, FL
    That fumbled on the play where Thill got blind sided when going back to pass... We recovered the ball right???

    We probably would have fumbled on the handoff since these guys were on the backfield that quick... and we probably would have lost the possesion...
     
  28. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

    20,810
    8,965
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Hollywood, Florida
    I personally had no issue with the call. They were sending 8-9 people every play and had all their timeouts plus the two minute warning if I'm not mistaken. A first down wouldn't have iced the game and sending all those men there isn't even a guarantee you'll pick up the first. A quick pass might actually end up with a huge gain there and pretty much ice the game by flipping field position at the very least.

    Poor execution on a good call IMO
     
    gunn34 and ssmiami like this.
  29. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    100%.
     
    ssmiami likes this.
  30. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

    72,658
    35,312
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Charlotte NC
    That pass call when tanny fumbled was a joke. Why throw there? 2 TE set, pound it in the middle. or off tackle with Reggie.
     
    Eop05 and Nappy Roots like this.
  31. Eop05

    Eop05 Junior Member Club Member

    5,659
    5,268
    113
    Dec 8, 2007
    NJ
    Couldn't agree more with running on 2nd and 8. Then run on 3rd and long and pin them back and make Kevin Kolb beat you by driving 85-95 yards with 2 minutes and 0 timeouts.

    I normally don't second-guess play-calling. But I did there. Especially with the relative success of the previous 4-5 runs.
     
    PhinGeneral and shouright like this.
  32. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
    0
    Dec 13, 2007
    Then again that play could've very well been one of those where he pump fakes a flanker screen and then hands off to Bush. Those were used last week when we needed to kill clock and were effective. The blitzer got through there so quickly that it's hard to know for sure.

    Either way, though, I'm not sure I risk anything there. I get Tannehill far away from the line ASAP and get the ball handed off.
     
    Eop05 likes this.
  33. HULKFish

    HULKFish Artist and Scribe

    6,715
    1,298
    113
    Apr 30, 2008
    Central FL
    The reason we lost the game is (as crazy as it sounds) because we didn't score enough points! Plenty of yards, but no points, thanks in part to Carpenter. As many have said, it isn't Bess and Hartline, they are solid, it is no one behind them... Naanee proved he is complete garbage out there. Was Armstrong even in the game?
     
  34. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009
    I cant believe people are still *****ing about a play that resulted from Arizona pullin a Maddenesque Nano Blitz cheat. Hard to tell but it was the right call given the circumstances; just crap execution. Like someone previously stated, the defender was in the backfield literally within 2 seconds of the snap. We would have been screwed no matter what the call would have been.
     

Share This Page