Anybody think we win more than 5 games?

And this guy tells me he's not a homer. Who's he fooling?

 

Far from a homer. Guarantees .500 or better. You can't make this stuff up.

 

Our starters managed a field goal in 2 possessions against 2nd and 3rd stringers. On second thought, you're right. I'll go ahead and purchase my super bowl tickets immediately.

 

Same thing every year for these guys. Until the season ends and "haters" like me end up right yet again because we aren't lacking common sense.

 

You realize that if you say X team is going to be bad, the odds are in favor of you being right?

 

But according to Ireland and Ross, the Dolphins are NOT rebuilding. So 4-12 from a team not rebuilding, is not acceptable.

 

Not a surprising response coming from you. About as surprising as seeing you call guys that haven't played a snap or coached a snap, in the NFL as upgrades. Pure comedy really. You're easily my go to poster on both boards combined when needing comic relief.

 

12 teams finished better than 8-8 last year. 12 teams finished worse than 8-8 last year. In 2010, 14 finished better than 8-8, 14 finished worse than 8-8. In 2009, 15 finished better than 8-8, 12 finished worse than 8-8.

You're wrong. Replace that X with Miami Dolphins however, and you're right. This team is predictably bad every season. Yet here some people are still homering it up as if this is their first year following this team and they don't know any better.

 

Right, but that isn't what I said. I said you can say that any team will be bad, and the odds are that you would end up right. Just think about that for a second.

 

Ok, and I may agree with the bolded part. Although it's questionable whether it's worth it or not.
But when you said that you believed Miami would win ~8 games, I assumed that percentage of winning 7 or more games would be a little higher. Around 65% at least.
My assumption based on your statements would've been:
>=8 wins - 50%
>=7 wins - 65%
>=6 wins - 75%

This is where the misunderstanding lies.

IMO, very high. Like 85% chance. Which is why I'm such a firm believe in -140, and why, to me, it's a good bet.

 

Its more a technical matter of polynomial distributions. The problem is that each win is not going to be worth the same amount. The easy way to look at it would be to take the true expected wins by the sportsbook, then find out the historical distributions (how many teams finished with x,y,z wins, etc.). But that isn't going to be as accurate as polynomial distributions. I don't do it, so I can't say how much of an affect the accuracy would have on any type of projections. Very likely the effect is negligible.

If it is an 85% chance, then you're expected return is $106 on a $100 bet.

 

Can't get that 6% return at a bank nowadays.

And I guess the bottomline for me is: Any way I wrap my head around it, I can't see the Miami Dolphins winning 8 games.

So I'll take my 500 bucks and either push and get it back, win 365 bucks, or lose it and be happy that we don't suck.

Tie-Win-Win!!!

 

Just hope we don't win 7 or 8 games, because then we'll still "suck", just in a different way.

 

Well that's a different argument. But I got Miami at o/u 7. So I'll push with 7

And if the Dolphins win 8 games, I just can't see a perception of us sucking. A "Raw" rookie QB with no talent at WR comes in and pushes Miami to 8 wins?!!! We'll be on cloud 9 come January, counting down the days until Free Agency, The Draft, OTAs, Training Camp, because we'll be a couple players and year under this system and new QB from competing. That 8 wins will bring a hope rarely seen around these parts. Dare I say a justified hope.

 

Golly, you seem to be really upset...angry even...that I think we'll be an average team. That's irrational on your part to be so butt hurt that some random person thinks, hey the Dolphins might be a 8-8 team. Its so irrational that would make you soooooooooooo angry, I think its fair to question why.

I mean its one thing to think we'll suck this year, that's fine, but to be popping blood vessels because I don't agree can only mean one of two things:

1. You're a Jets fan and really want us to suck.
2. You have a crush on me and that makes you question your own sexuality...which makes you angry.

I cannot think of any other reason why my prediction would enrage you so much.

 

There's some good will hunting sh&$ goin in in this thread.

 

I agree with this.
I don't agree with your prediction....at all. But it doesn't make me mad in the least. I'm still a bit confused how you think we get to 8+ wins but whatever.
Not only am I not mad, I hope to hell you're right and you can come on here and serve us all big heaping crow sando. With extra hot sauce.

 

Right?!??!?!

I swear you'd think I stole his woman after I kicked his dog then took his wallet.

I thought everyone would hope we're at least .500.

 

We might win 6 games as we have a favorable schedule.

 

Maybe you remind of that bully in grammar school who used to give him Atomic wedgies and steal his lunch money?

 

We will win 7 to 9 games.

 

Seriously?

 

Yep, seriously, felt that way coming into the season and have not changed my mind. If you want to laugh and go watch reruns of the Brady Bunch, be my guest.

 

Yup, sticking with my 7 wins from before preseason too.

 

Don't lecture me on being a fan. I think I am more of a fan than someone who goes into the season with unrealistic expectations.

 

As you already know, I don't see this Dolphin team winning more then five or six games at most. That doesn't mean that I don't want them to win a lot more games then that. In fact if this Dolphins team wins the eight games you think they will. I would stop calling for the firing of Ireland. I would also think that this would put Philbin in the list for , "coach of the year". If the team wins eight games and the offense is a major reason for these wins, I would also think that Tannehill would be a run away winner for, "rookie of the year".

Fortunately we are just 10 days from the Dolphins regular season beginning, so all the conjecture over what type of regular season this team is going to have will be answered within the next 18 weeks. We don't agree on much, but I sure hope you are right about this team and I am completely wrong. We shall see.

 

Must be a downer for you being such a good fan.

PS

I must of hit a nerve.

I see no reason why we can't win 7 to 9 games, we are starting the better QB than we had last year, while the WR's are not great, I think we are underestimating them, we added another weapon at RB, the defense has been so so in preseason, but when Dansby and Burnett play that will change. I was not a big Davis fan and don't think we will miss him so much. The Jets, Bills and Pats are not world beaters by any means. The Jets can't score, the Bills I will wait to see, and the Pats can't keep Brady off his back.

 

It's been a downer being a Dolphin fan for most of the last ten years.

Whatever makes you feel superior.

 

4 wins seems optimal with the current roster. Could change to 6 if we can actually get a WR.

 

Yes. My guess is 8. The +/- in Vegas is 7. I know, a sucker bet.

http://blog.gamblerspalace.com/gp/wordpress/nfl-betting-odds-lines-football-predictions-picks/

It's just that we haven't seen the finished product on either side of the ball. I don't think Tannehill has attempted a pass over the top since his 1st throw in the 1st scrimmage and the 1st team D (minus Dansby and Burnett.) hasn't given up a TD since game 2. No need to put anything on tape at this point of the season.

Call me crazy if you want. It wouldn't be the 1st time.

 

You obviously haven't the slightest idea what enraged is if you think that's what I am. Like I said, it's actually pretty hard to be enraged reading your posts. Quite the opposite. Good comic relief. It's ok to be a homer, but you take it to new heights that make it pretty difficult not to chuckle at. Carry on then.

 

Meanwhile most of the forum had their guns to their heads.

Hope none of u guys are stock brokers.

 

yeah, me too. Perhaps he can sell that used Vette to pay us all off.

 

Post full of win. I just can't believe we had an option to get rid of jw for good. I would have taken that bullet just for the chance lol.


A lot of guys here owe Finacious an apology though. Folks were real ***** just cause he was optimistic.....but then I guess we can live with the fact these guys lost money with Vegas.

 

Season is not over yet, so I may still be wrong, we'll see. Plus i wasn't the only one, there were a few people who were predicting 7-9 wins.

But one thing I'd like to reiterate is that I wasn't being an optimist. I personally think better coaching is good for at least 2 wins a season.

 

Based on pythagorean projections, I think Miami was projected to have 7.9 wins before the season started. Right now, they are at 9.4. Honestly, I will not surprise me to see this team win 10 games.

 

I still think we win 3 games max and Tannehill is a bust.

 

Damn I missed this post in August when I was on the road travelling. This is ****ing hilarious, and Fin D, good job sticking to your opinion and keeping it level. There was a lot of vitriol sent your way and those "fans" had better be apologizing to you!

 

I think we go undefeated. I'm willing to bet a million dollars.

 

I've had issue with a lot of what JW posted in the summer and the preseason, because he kept repeating the same lines over and over and his negativity was getting tiresome. However in his defense, he has admitted that he was wrong and has even started changing his attitude a bit about Ross and Ireland. I think we forget sometimes that we all root for the same team and we've all watched this team suck *** for so long. Some people have handled it better than others, but I think we are all starting to see that this franchise is moving in the right direction. With moods getting better around here there isn't much of a point in keep these divisive tensions. That said, I do agree that some of the people who responded in a jerky manner should throw forth a tiny apology.