Anybody think we win more than 5 games?

I'm still maintaining that come regular season we will NOT be this bad when game planning comes into effect. Now my mind may change quickly but at the core I don't have too many issues with this team. A few big holes but also a few decent units. I'll let it play out before I freak.

 

No amount of gameplanning can make wide receivers catch balls instead of dropping them.

 

You're obviously upset about the team and want...no demand, everyone else feels the same way.

 

Ok, but be warned, the only way I could be whiter is if I voted for Romney.

 

You could lobby for JP Morgan...

 

My optimism has plenty of basis:
Better coaching, better oline, better QB, weaker schedule, better running game, better TE...
none of that is ridiculous or false.

The reasons why you guys say we'll be worse:
worse WR, worse CB, Jeff Ireland hate, 0-4 preseason
we're not THAT worse at WR from last year. Look it up our offense with Bess, Hartline & Ginn was better than our offense with Bess, Hartline & Marshall. I don't think the CB drop off will be as severe has you guys make it. Yes we lost talent in Vontae, but we didn't lose a lot of actual on field production. Atalanta had an 0-4 preseason last year, then when went to the playoffs. Preseason records are pointless.

You choose to be crotchety about this and good for you, I see plenty to be hopeful about, but its not like I'm saying they are playoff team or anything. I'm betting on .500, the epitome of average so we can stop pretending I'm talking SB. Average is not a reach.

 

With this roster, betting on .500 is like talking SB

Seriously though, I'm having a very hard time seeing more than 4 wins. I've usually been pretty doom and gloom in the recent past (not without merit, I might add), but this might be the least optimistic I've ever been since Wannstedt resigned. I just hope that Tannehill shows playmaking ability and that the weak schedule carries us to a record that won't make us completely tear down everything next season again.

 

I honestly feel sorry for those that cannot see how the team might be better. To be so sure of failure is a sad thing.



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That's funny. I genuinely feel sorry for those who think we're a better team each and every year. To get your hopes shattered again and again is a sad thing.

 

Believeing that this year's team is going to be any good is akin to believeing in Santa Claus or the tooth Fairy.

It's not the winless pre-season that matters, it's the individual performances. Has anybody stepped up and done anything to make you hopeful? Outside of Tannehill, the answer is no.

 

That's the way sports work every year the fan base is excited for a fresh start and hope that this is there year. Then reality starts to sink in day by day of how the season is really going to play out. Which leaves us starting to slowly ***** and moan till were fully sulking on the couch watching a miserable season.

 

really? In what way?

 

My prediction as of right now is 6-10

Wins against Raiders, Cardinals, Rams, Colts, Seahawks, and Bills (2nd to last game)

Loss against Texans, Jets (x2), Bengals, Titans, Bills (week 11), Patriots (x2), 49ers, and Jaguars

We may have 7 - 8 wins in us if we beat the Jets at home in Week 3, and if the Patriots are sitting most of their starters in Week 17.

 

I can get behind that. We play some weak competition this year.

 

It's not each and every year. It's this year specifically.

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Loss to Jags but beating the Seahawks? I don't see it.

 

Bush, wake, smith, bess? And then there are the mystery boxes that haven't been opened yet, hartline and dansby.

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West coast teams travelling to the east coast don't usually fare well... and vice versa.

 

Most of the current team was built by Ireland under the Parcells blueprint. This past draft is the exception. The new Philbin/GB/WCO is a total departure from anything we've had here before. Many of the preexisting players don't fit this new style, not to mention Philbin's vision of what he wants his players to be. Not choir boys necessarily, but guys that will work hard and be professionals; guys he doesn't have to get on to be on time, or to put in the extra work, guys he can count on. So I don't think you can say that this team isn't in a rebuilding mode.

I think a lot of our current players won't be here next year. However, I sincerely hope Ireland is not the one making personnel decisions and acting on them. I think he has failed to provide playmakers, which by their skills can transition more easily to a new type of team. There is a smattering of these, Bush, Wake, maybe Smith, maybe Tannehill will be, but that's about it. After all these five years, that's all the playmakers? That's a poor record.

As far as the thread question, I'm very pessimistic to expect many wins. Most likely 5 games is pretty close, so I' m going to say I don't think we will win more than 5.

 

If they don't with the schedule they have, then they are even sadder than I originally thought...

 

While you say that, I guarantee every team that has Miami on it's sked is looking it at it as a game they should win.
Every team.

 

5 is a stretch. I'm thinking 3-13.

All I want is for Tannehill to show he belongs.

 

Sounds like a lot of people on this forum are going to be rich after this season.

If the total is 7.5 right now, and you think this team is going to win 5 or less, the expected value on an under bet is probably the best financial decision you will make in your entire life.

 

I know I already put a big chunk of change on the under.

I'm not one to really believe in a stone cold lock in gambling. But this is as close to a LOCK as I've ever seen.

In fact, I'm completely SHOCKED that Vegas doesn't have the line at 6.5 or 6.

 

And FTR, just because I project this team to be a 6 win team at best, that doesn't mean I'm doom & gloom, miserable, etc. In fact I'm optimistic about the future and direction. Maybe it's Tannehill exceeding early expectations, I don't know. But I think we'll be fine in the future.

Now, however, not so much.

 

The problem being that my bookie has the under at a lousy 1.3 - and I'm kinda lacking the change to make that a worthwhile bet in terms of total gain.

 

If you did that I would hate you forever.

 

I think we both know there is zero danger of me doing that or you hating me for anything. We heart.

 

Then you must feel the same way about betting the over. Go for it. How exciting that would make the season for you.

 

How so? I've said I think the team is going to win ~8 games. When you consider the vigorish, it would be a losing proposition.

 

Considering the over pays around 3.5, it should be the best financial decision you've ever made

 

Expected value still isn't high enough right now for that.

 

So much for 7.5. Looks like Vegas watches the preseason, hard knocks, and has seen our WRs, Safeties, and OL too. Good thing I got mine in at 7 before they **** themselves for the 4th straight week and traded Vontae. Not that it matters because I still think under 6.5 is a safe bet too.

Miami Dolphins - 2012 Regular Season Win Total
1:00p
Over
6½
(+110)o
(-140)u

Bovada.lv

Stringer, Get over there. No vig on over 6.5. In fact you can bet 100 to win 110

 

Still not good enough value on the over. Taking under 6.5 at -140 if you think they're winning 5 games is a bad bet too.

 

If you really think the Dolphins win ~8 games, and you can get +110 on over 6.5, I'm not sure how that's not good value.

And as for -140 on the under. It's not a bad bet. Not when you're very confident that it will come in.

 

Because its barely +EV. Just because a bet has +EV doesn't mean its a good bet, especially for futures bets.

Prob Miami wins 7+ games = X
Prob Miami wins 6 or less = Y

(X * 110) - (Y * -100) = Expected Value

Assume I believe that they have a 60% of finishing with 7+ wins, the expected value would be 106. So the question is whether a 6% return on average is worth tying up money for 5 months. IMO it is not.

What are the odds you believe they'll finish with 6 or less?

ETA: Taking the over at BoDog @ 6.5 +110 is a much worse bet than most places that have 7.5.

 

Better OL? Based on? Because all I see is Jonathan Martin looking awful out there. Better at QB? Based on? A guy that hasn't played a down in the NFL yet, and hasn't looked very promising in the preseason, with a joke of an offense around him. Better running game? Based on? Lamar Miller has sucked all preseason, based on history, Bush's season last year was a fluke until proven otherwise. Better coaching? Based on? A first time head coach? First time DC?

This team is at best winning 5 or 6 games and that's only because of the schedule where they could get lucky against smoke of the other terrible teams we play. A top 3 draft pick is just as likely however.

 

Thank you. Now I think all the people that were giving me a hard time, will see what delusion actually looks like.