Potential Salary Cap Cuts

While it's probably not appropriate to be talking about guys that could be surprise inclusions in final 53 man cuts, I am not sure if everyone is really on the same page about how the new salary cap rules could affect this process.

There is a new rule in place that allows teams to easily and painlessly roll their salary cap space forward from one year to the next. All they need do send a letter to the league asking for the space to be rolled forward, and the league grants them that space as a credit to their next year's cap. In the past, this process was indirect, and involved taking advantage of loopholes in the accounting of different incentives. You had to actually re-work the contracts of several trusted veterans in order to get this done. Teams really couldn't always roll space forward, especially cap space they received from final cut downs. Now, they can guarantee that space rolls forward. This was true a year ago as well, however the mechanics of rolling the space forward are now tested and proven, as pretty much every team in the league elected to try it out this off season.

The Dolphins already had a longstanding policy under Jeff Ireland that if the camp battle between an older player and a younger player were close, they would show a tendency toward cutting the older player. They did that with Eric Green whom they signed to play corner ahead of Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, and the result was starting two rookies simultaneously at cornerback, whereas most teams are reluctant to even start one rookie at that particular position. They did the same with guys like Marques Douglas and Charles Grant. With salary cap now perfectly fungible in future cap years, the impetus will be greater than ever to clear the salaries of older veterans that are not separating themselves from younger players in camp.

Here are ten of what I feel are the most likely salary cap cuts that could happen toward the end of camp, along with the space the player could save. Keep in mind that the mechanics of cap savings actually dictate that the space saved by cutting one player is reduced by the salary cap figure of the player that ends up in the top 51 salaries as a result of that cut. Generally the players that roll into that top 51 account for about $400k, so in your mind you should probably reduce the savings of each of the following players by about that much.

1. QB Matt Moore - $3.03 mil potential cap savings - With both David Garrard (Philbin's choice) and Ryan Tannehill (everyone's choice) also in the mix, the pressure will be on both Garrard and Moore to separate themselves and prove their value to the roster during training camp. The Dolphins under Jeff Ireland have already had a longstanding policy that if it's close between the old guy and the young guy, they get rid of the old guy. What happens now that they know they can roll cap space forward easily and freely into future years? Moore could also be traded, probably to the Broncos.

2. QB David Garrard - $2.35 mil potential cap savings - Exact same situation here between Garrard and Moore. With between $2.35 and $3.03 million of future cap space hanging in the balance, one of these two players is NOT going to be spending 16 games holding a clipboard as the third quarterback. It's not going to happen. Garrard was signed with a thesis in mind that said that he's A) healthy and B) good for Philbin's and Sherman's WCO. If those prove to be less than true, he's gone. If the Dolphins get a decent trade offer for Matt Moore (I'm still looking square at Denver on this one) then Garrard will stay.

3. OL Nate Garner - $1.45 mil potential cap savings - Unfortunately, if you're a veteran that ranks in the top 12 among potential cap savings, and you're just a backup, you are a prime candidate to be cut before the season starts. Nate Garner is in that uncomfortable position, but as if that were not enough, there's the simple fact that he was acquired to play for a different coaching regime that appreciated a different prototype in its offensive linemen. Garner arguably does not fit the new prototype. He got a shot to increase his street cred tremendously by filling in for Jake Long at left tackle, but he botched it (predictably, he's not suited for left tackle against top rushers). The pressure will be on him to have a hell of a training camp and separate himself considerably from the likes of Ryan Cook, Ray Feinga, Terence Brown, Will Barker and Josh Samuda.

4. OL Ryan Cook - $1.01 mil potential cap savings - Ryan Cook is in a similar situation as Nate Garner, but with a couple of small advantages. First, it's not much of a difference, but there is a difference in the amount of savings the team would get by cutting the two players. Second, though Garner has filled in at Center in the past, Cook is more experienced there and more trustworthy. He is not the kind of player Mike Sherman and Joe Philbin want on their offensive line. He's huge, oafish and slow. He doesn't get to the second level well at all. But if he solidifies his position as the backup Center, that could be his ticket to surviving cut dates. I don't see another player on roster aside from Richie Incognito (whose experience at the position is scant) who can play swing if Pouncey were to get hurt.

5. SS Tyrone Culver - $0.85 mil potential cap savings - Culver ranks among the top 20 potential salary cap savings, but the bottom line is he just does not have the range that Kevin Coyle seems to covet in his safeties, judging by players he polished up in Cincinnati, as well as some of the pickups in Miami. He will need to prove in camp that he is significantly better than younger, more athletic guys like Chris Clemons, Kelcie McCray and Jimmy Wilson, in order to make the roster.

6. LB Jason Trusnik - $0.72 mil potential cap savings - Trusnik is on very thin ice and will have to separate himself from a lot of young players on special teams. He did not help his cause in 2011 with some untimely penalties. In addition to the potential cap savings putting a target on his back, he plays a position which may be overcrowded given the increase we could see in the Dolphins' use of four man fronts. Trusnik is not a down lineman, yet he is also not a pure linebacker. They just drafted Josh Kaddu, which probably spells Jason Trusnik's doom, but he will also compete with Jamaal Westerman and Koa Misi. If he does not soundly beat Kaddu in camp, he's a goner.

7. DT Tony McDaniel - $3.00 mil potential cap savings - I was a little surprised the Dolphins did not go ahead and cut McDaniel in order to make some room for Soliai's new contract, but they may want to take him through training camp and see what they have before they cut him loose. He's in another contract year, so it wouldn't surprise me if he steps it up a little. However, the Dolphins drafted Kheeston Randall, and Ryan Baker is actually a pretty solid player for the rotation. The Dolphins have six guys all worthy of roster spots at defensive tackle in Paul Soliai, Randy Starks, Jared Odrick, Tony McDaniel, Kheeston Randall and Ryan Baker. Odrick may play some defensive end but they know he's a defensive tackle by trade. A guy like Chas Alecxih could always surprise you, as well. Yes, the Dolphins will need more defensive linemen now that they plan to play more 4-3 fronts. However, the deficiency seems to be at defensive end, not tackle. Their cup runneth over at tackle, which is part of why Odrick will play some end. The end position has guys like Cam Wake, Jamaal Westerman, Olivier Vernon, Jonathan Freeny, Jarrell Root, Jacquies Smith and Derrick Shelby, which makes it look thin, but they know Koa Misi can come down and put his hand on the ground or play outside linebacker any time they want.

8. G/T Artis Hicks - $1.25 mil potential cap savings - It sounds like Hicks was signed in part to compete at tackle, in case they could not address the position adequately in the Draft. With Jon Martin drafted, that means Hicks got one of the legs holding up his value kicked out from under him. I personally think he has an ace up his sleeve as a guard, because I've seen him play there and I believe he has a very compatible game when it comes to Mike Sherman's scheme. He has always been a huge, strong, yet surprisingly mobile player. He sucks at pulling, but pulling is less than 20 percent of Mike Sherman's running game, and it was almost zero percent of Joe Philbin's. Pulling is different from releasing to the second level, and he can do the latter. I've seen him do it well. But he's older, injury prone, and one little injury could see the Dolphins looking at the $1.25 million in potential cap space and saying we're better off having that money available to us in 2013 than we are having him on roster in 2012.

9. FS Chris Clemons - $1.31 mil potential cap savings - It may be a surprise that the team can save this much money if they cut Clemons, but according to the data I have, it is true. I would put him higher but I think he has the range and speed that Kevin Cole covets. Still, if Tyrone Culver soundly beats him out in the mental/durability department, and someone like Kelcie McCray looks any good, the Dolphins could make a choice to part with Clemons for the sake of the $1.31 million they would get credited back to them in 2013.

10. OT Lydon Murtha - $1.97 mil potential cap savings - This potential cut would be considered a big surprise, especially as Mike Sherman seemed to be talking about Murtha when he talked about hidden talent in the offensive line. He fits exactly what they want as far as explosiveness, athleticism and mobility, and he helped block for Zac Taylor back in college. However, the front office has to be getting tired of his lack of durability. He came out of college injury prone, and he's been injury prone in the NFL. This may be his final shot in Miami to prove he can stay healthy. One injury setback in camp and we may be talking about him being ousted in order to save money on the salary cap in 2013.

Overall I see a good $8 million that could be saved for the 2013 salary cap relatively painlessly.

Keep in mind there's a flip side to this coin. You know how much Jeff Ireland loves what he calls "acorns". The motivation for cutting veterans in final cut downs is now higher across the whole league. You could see a lot more veterans cut whose biggest crime was just that they weren't significantly more talented than a young player that surprised everyone, yet they were significantly more expensive. This $8 million in space may find its way into use before the Dolphins can even try and roll it forward to 2013.

 

According to what I am looking at, which looks extremely detailed and on the ball, cutting John Jerry may actually cost the Dolphins some 2012 salary cap space. There is a cap savings of about $325k, however pushing him off the roster would push another many up into the top 51 salaries, and that man would probably carry a salary cap figure of around $400k. So really you probably have a net loss of space, around $80k or so.

 

Incognito may not fit the new offense but I want to see him play in it first. He's actually very athletic relative to his size and strength. I think a lot of people are confused about the difference between pulling guards and guys that can get to the second level. Omar Kelly was obsessed with the lack of a pulling guard until I informed him that Joe Philbin never used pullers and Mike Sherman rarely did. Pulling and releasing to the second level usually correlate but not always. Artis Hicks himself is an example of a guy I saw get out to the second level on zone plays pretty well in Washington when he was a guard, but who looked pretty laughable trying to pull from the same position. When Richie Incognito came out of Nebraska (where he learned Bill Callahan's WCO/Zone offense during spring and training camp prior to his suspension), he ran a blowout 40 yard dash at 4.84 seconds at 6'3" and 303 lbs.

For myself, I haven't always assumed Richie is in for the long haul with this coaching staff, but he's been a guy I believe they'll want to see for themselves before they make that decision, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he looks a natural in it.

 

Continuing the Richie Incognito thing...

He was the Nebraska left tackle for two years and when Bill Callahan got there and installed his zone/west coast offense, he immediately tabbed Incognito to move inside to be his center. He never really got to play in the offense because he violated some team rules and Callahan suspended him indefinitely. When he did so, he said "I'm really disappointed because he's a really good player, but no one is bigger than the team." Incidentally, for those curious, Zac Taylor was not yet a member of the Cornhuskers. He came the following year.

Richie was drafted by Scott Linehan when he was Head Coach of the Rams. To my knowledge, Scott does never ran a zone scheme. He was there from 2006 to 2008. In 2008, Pro Football Focus gave him a +2.4 for Pass Block, +1.5 for Screen Block and +5.3 for Run Block grades in 896 snaps. Of course, he had a whopping -7.3 for Penalty grade.

In 2009, Steve Spagnuolo took over and hired Pat Shurmur as his offensive coordinator. I believe Shurmur did run a scheme similar to what you'll find in Miami under Philbin and Sherman. During his time in that scheme, he accumulated +1.8 Pass Block, +1.0 Screen Block and +4.6 Run Block grades in 518 snaps. Of course, again, he accumulated a -4.6 Penalty grade. He was cut when he got two personal foul penalties in a row against the Titans and then got into a screaming match with his Head Coach Steve Spagnuolo.

He went off to the Bills for the remainder of 2009 and accumulated +3.1 Pass Block, +0.0 Screen Block and -0.1 Run Block grades in 188 snaps. Of course, he also accumulated a -2.2 Penalty grade. I don't know what offense they had that year under Dick Jauron but I don't think it was similar to ours.

Beginning 2010 he goes off to the Dolphins. He accumulates +0.8, +1.5 and +0.1 Pass, Screen and Run grades in 1093 snaps in 2010, and then +2.0, +0.0 and +0.6 grades in 946 snaps of 2011. Neither offense was all that similar to the new offense.

Essentially, Pro Football Focus is putting forward the theory that the most effective Richie Incognito has blocked since 2008 was when he played in Pat Shurmur's scheme in 2009, even though he got his butt kicked off the team for extraneous issues. I'm not saying PFF is correct, they're just organization doing some grading whereas anyone with a pair of eyes and access to old NFL games can do the same. But this is what they're grading is saying. In 2008, he only needed 97 snaps to get +1.0 point of blocking grade, and in 2009 with the Rams in Shurmur's offense, he only needed 70 snaps to do the same.

Tony Sparano pulls him to the Dolphins (if you remember, Incognito was well reputeded to be a Sparano mancrush) to play a scheme dissimilar from Pat Shurmur's, and Incognito was never as effective again. In 2010 and 2011 he needed 455 and 364 snaps just to get a single +1.0 point grade from PFF.

I'm kind of curious to see if Richie has been miscast by a coach that may not have known what the hell he was doing as far as picking out quality offensive linemen (see: Colombo, Marc).

 

I don't see that as a problem until he comes to camp and he hasn't lost that weight. He was never a guy that struggled with weight (which is where he's different right off the bat from L.J. Shelton). He had to work hard to put weight on because he came out about 303 lbs and as he's gone on in the league in Miami's power scheme, he bulked up to 324 lbs. The Dolphins want him closer to what he was coming out when he blazed a 4.84 second 40 yard dash.

This is not an L.J. Shelton. I don't see where that comes from.

 

To know that I'd have to know all 31 other teams as well as I know the Dolphins and that's tough to do.

 

The reason I say Moore could be traded to the Broncos is:

1. He knows the offense from the days when both he and the offensive coordinator were in Carolina

2. I don't have a high opinion of Osweiler, especially as a rookie, the more they go on in camp/preseason the more they may realize he can't play in 2012

3. Let's be honest, Peyton could easily have a setback

 

That's interesting. Hadn't thought of it but you could be right.