Wait a minute here, We're not gonna have this argument again are we.

You can still legitimately criticize the draft strategy before the guys play. I think if there is a 1st round caliber QB there when you pick, you take him. Whether the guy busts or not is not really relevant to the overall disagreement with the philosophy or strategy.

Similarly, I criticized the trade down from 12 a few years ago, and still don't like it, even though Odrick looks like he might be good. Just a difference in philosophy

 

Dear god, you do know the draft is not guaranteed nor does it happen in a vacuum, right?

 

I would think it is a silly rule.

But in order to make that decision, you actually need to place an assessment of the players ability, which you are arguing should be ignored.

 

Yes, and my entire point is that first round caliber can wildly vary. If Ireland has Tannehill/Weeden/Wilson as a 6th round caliber QBs, he surely should not draft him. Whether his wildly varying opinion is right or wrong can only be judged after these guys play.

 

When did I say anything was guaranteed? I just said that you need to factor in the evaluation of the player, not just the position.

 

No I'm not. Just because you used an extreme number like 1% does not mean I'm ignoring it. I'm saying virtually no one other than the occasional fan has rated these 3 guys as having less than a 50% chance of making it. I say that's enough of a reason to take one at 8. A QB with a 50% chance or better of becoming franchise is worth more than a WR or DE with a 80% of becoming franchise. Not too mention if Ireland doesn't evaluate any of those 3 guys with a 50% chance or better of becoming franchise than he's wrong.

 

I didn't say you did. But clearly you think there's guarantees otherwise your position would be different. Think about it, you're questioning why a team should take a chance in the draft.

 

I believe that the only two ,"franchise", type QB's in this draft are Luck and RG3. I have huge question marks about every other QB in this draft class. So I would not be upset in the least if the Dolphins pass on Tannehill in the first round and take a player at another position who can come in and start immediately.

I figure the Dolphins can always draft Wilson, Cousins, Weeden, or one of the other QB's in the later rounds and I don't see that Tannehill is any better than the other top second tier QB's in this draft.

 

83 Draft with QB's was a dream beit boom or bust but if you got dream you got future HOFer. We got the golden ticket with Marino. When Marino stepped into the position he had a superb supporting cast on Offense. Its almost a mirror image. Weve got so many weaknesses on Offense at certain positions that are vital its a no win situation. WR? RB? Right hand side of our O-Line. Alot of needs.

 

And my entire point is that you can't make this statement without the luxury of hindsight.

You are basing all this off what you believe to be the proper evaluation of the players. Whether you are right or wrong about these players won't be determined this week or next week. It will be determined after these guys play.

And to be clear, I agree that a QB with a 50% chance of becoming a franchise QB is more valuable than a DE with 80% chance. But again, the numbers placed on the players should be what Ireland is judged on. If he said Blaine Gabbert had a 1% chance of being a franchise QB, then surely he should be applauded for that. If Ireland says that Ryan Tannehill has a 1% chance of becoming a franchise QB, and he turns out to be a franchise QB, then surely he should be held responsible, and fired.

But you're essentially projecting the consensus evaluation of the players onto Jeff Ireland, which I don't believe is fair at all.

 

I don't think there is any guarantee. And I absolutely think teams should take a chance. I'm fine with taking Tannehill.

My entire point is that you're assuming that the level of risk you believe to be associated with these QBs is the same level of risk that Jeff Ireland believes to be associated with them. You believe that if Jeff Ireland passes on these QBs, its because he isn't willing to take the level of risk you believe these players to have.

 

At some point the Miami Dolphins are going to have to be one of the teams that reaches to find out if a Qb who is projected to be a possible franchise player is indeed that player.

 

Fans will ***** at whoever they select.

 

Yes, but that doesn't mean you take a quarterback just to take one.

 

I don't think anyone disagrees with that. I think the opposing point is that you need to actually project someone to be a possible franchise player before you take that risk.

There are essentially two parts to what everyone is suggesting:

-evaluating the likelihood of a QB becoming a franchise QB
-evaluating how much risk you are willing to take

Where do you draw the line on how much risk makes taking a QB worth it? If there is a 50% chance I'm fine. If you believe the QB to only have a 5% chance of making it, do you take him? I wouldn't.

 

If the GM has a first round grade on one of them, then yes! Even if that GM thinks its late first round. Trade back, or back into the round to get him.

 

Not really! Most of us know that the player selected has to be projected by that GM as being highly talented. We the fan want them to make it happen now!! That is all...

 

As much as I truly want Brandon weeden, I wouldn't mind not drafting him or Ryan and taking a shot with Wilson just to see how well he does in camp. He's a four year starter at big schools in difficult conferences. Great character guy too. Who knows, he might just surprise you... Also with these percentages and statistics for drafting a QB. They all are null and void because of the fact that, year after year you have NEW Qbs. How can you put a percentage on something that hasn't happened before? These percentages are "at best" a statement stating that something might or might not be good. If you had cold hard statistics for upcoming talent level of Qbs and how they will succeed in the nfl. You would be in somebody's front office.

As for *****ing about tannehill not being taken. I'll be thrilled to see him wearing a different jersey then ours next year. Why? Because its not like he will be starting. Some of you will ***** and complain that we haven't drafted a QB in round one in blah blah amount of years. Well I guess our guy hasn't come along yet... When we had our first overall pick we took a cornerstone for our Oline. Who knows maybe next year we will take a qb round one. Who knows russel Wilson could start for us this year and win 8-9 games. If could be Gerard or moore. What's the truth in this? There is none because we just don't know.

End rant:

 

Hindsight is irrelevant. No one is saying whoever he picks, better succeed. I'm saying there's enough reason take one of the guys and if he doesn't it won't be because he views them as having only a 1%. The evaluation on those guys cannot be be so off as a Draftwinds says Weeden is gonna be great to Ireland saying he has no more than a 1% chance. It doesn't work like that because the evaluations are partially based off of hard indisputable numbers. There is discussion nationwide that Tanny is in the mix at 4 for crying out loud.

 

I'm not sure how you can be so certain on what Ireland's evaluation of the players is. I certainly heard people say Blaine Gabbert would never be an NFL QB, yet he was drafted highly. Hell, look at Greg Cossell's mock draft, and you'll see guys like Coples not even in the first round, while others say hes a top-10 talent.

Well we'll have to agree to disagree on this

 

I willing to wager that's always been your philosophy in the draft. Which before last offseason was correct. However, the CBA has changed things. You cannot remove a GIANT penalty form the draft and not change your strategy. Its like saying if you don't convert on 4th down the other team no longer gets the ball right there but you get to kick it to them. That would change the strategy dramatically.

 

DJ, with all due respect, that is how things work. Sure, you'd love to believe that a GM listens to his coaches, and acquiesces to their wishes where they are passionate about something, but in the real world, that isn't what always happens.

Why do you think Bill Parcells *****ed about not "buying the groceries"? Or Jimmy Johnson demanded total control after being run over by Jones? Or that Nick Saban wouldn't even consider coming to the NFL unless he had that control? And these were established coaches.

 

I seriously doubt you'll find a consensus that says either of those 3 has less than a 50% chance. I have yet to see it myself.

 

My entire point is that a consensus doesn't matter. All that should matter is what the guys in the organization believe it to be.

As I said, I would like Tannehill at 8. But if thats not the choice, I'm not going to assume its because the team wasn't willing to take a 50% risk. But it really doesn't matter, because the people who determine Ireland's fate do know the logic behind Ireland's decisions.

 

I'm done accepting excuses from this franchise for not drafting QBs in the first round. DONE. It's been 12 years since this franchise has drafted a QB in the first round. TWELVE. And what's been the biggest weakness for this team for 12 years? QB! Sounds like complete madness when you put it that way right? So DJ, if you want to buy the excuses from Ireland and other GMs for not making the position a priority you go right ahead. I'm done. I've seen too many QBs that this team has passed on over the past 12 years turn into franchise players.

 

Who has anyone currently with the organization passed on thats won a SB???

 

I was editing my post while you were making your reply, but I'll still answer. My post and that sentence was referencing the past 12 years so it's applicable.

 

I won't go crazy if they don't pick him at 8 but what drives me nuts is how they wait it out so many times to see if their guy falls to them. The only time I've seen them go get there player was with Thomas last year but the team was desperate for a Rb.

So if Ireland has an end of the first round grade for a player such as Weeden, he better get back into the first round to get him.

 

I agree that quarterback is the most important position on any team and that not enough emphasis has been put on that position in the draft by the Dolphins. I wouldn't mind if the Dolphins picked two quarterbacks somewhere in the draft every year until that position is settled. We have to find a quarterback who can lead the team, make all of the necessary plays and is not prone to turnovers. I don't care if we take Tannehill, Weeden or Wilson as long as he has the best opportunity to succeed and meet or exceed expectations. This Merry-Go-Round that has been the Dolphin quarterback search has to end some time, preferably sooner than later.

 

totally agree, in this day and age of the nfl rookie cap you can take a flyer on a guy and if he busts it doesnt kill you for the next 5 or so years. if sherman and philbin think tannehill is the guy they have to roll the dice, same goes for weeden

 

I just want Ireland to work the board he and his staff have spent 1,000s of hours putting together. There are only 2 concensus QBs and both are spoken for. If they have another QB graded as a 1st round prospect, which I doubt, then I would hope they would take him - even at 8. Otherwise, there are plenty of holes that need to be filled.

 

Yea to further this... Ireland doesn't own the team, write the checks, and can still be fired. For him to completely disregard intel from his coaches is just plain dumb. Ireland's dumb, but that **** just doesn't happen. Hes not trying to get fired. All jokes aside people.

 

At 8, whoever we draft will either boom or bust. Even if we grab a DE and he turns out to be just an ok player, then that's a bust at #8. Now, if the DE becomes an elite player, like say JT was, how competitive does that make us?

So, since whatever position we pick can either be boom or bust, why not take a QB who by nature of the position has a higher ceiling for the team?

 

Hear what you are saying but I would say I want them to take the QB they think is best with the latest possible pick. However since thats a fairly unreasonable request how about the the closest reasonable pick....not say Wilson at 8.

 

Because even if we picked the second coming of Bruce Smith it would mean less ot the team than taking a chance on finding the next Aaron Rodgers.