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No doubt Dolphins going after Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Apr 15, 2012.

  1. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Those are the only three I'd have any optimism for. Anybody else would be another "wait til next year scenario", where we can look forward for calls not to draft a QB then b/c we want "immediate impact". LOL
     
  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Groundhog Year.
     
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  3. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    My guess is that potential OC hires were discussed and that potential QB targets were discussed. Philbin had also probably approached the coaches that could potential be on his staff should he be hired and that he would have discussed Tannehill at some point. Since we know that the Dolphin's F.O. was looking into Tannehill at the end of last season and the reports at the time (before most teams enter the disinformation mode) were that the Dolphin's F.O. liked him, it seems likely that (at least before the hire) Philbin and the Dolphins were on the same page in terms of OC and to a lesser extent, the QB (at least in terms of having a few guys they could agree on to varying degrees). How much of a factor that was in Philbin being the choice is impossible to say. I figure it was in there, but that Cole is exaggerating the degree.
     
  4. Incognito1948

    Incognito1948 New Member

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    If the fins had this grand plan wrapped around tennehill I would be very surprised - does Ireland and company have a history of deep seated planning for any player? As most of the so called experts have pointed out rt is not a high first round pick, even at 8. If he is there they may pick him but there are some impact players who will most likely be there at 8 - I believe the smart move woulda be take an impact player at 8 and a qb in the second round IMO there are some very good prospects who will be available in the second round. Remember Miami will not over pay for a player - I do not believe they hired JP so they could get Sherman for OC personally - why would they waste time with PM and MF if they were so high on RT? Doesn't make sense.
     
  5. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I mean it all sounds nice but the reality I think is much different. The reality is, at the time Miami hired Joe Philbin, there's no way Joe Philbin or the Miami Dolphins could have known that Mike Sherman would be the offensive coordinator. I believe Sherman was still being considered for the Tampa Bay head coach position, and there were other offers on the table that he was strongly considering. I remember hearing Sherman wondered how he'd feel about working under someone that worked for him at one point, and he also had some questions about Miami and the ownership, all of which needed address. The decision to come to Miami was not an easy one, it wasn't something that was just a matter of course. I could see Joe Philbin bringing his name up when talking about candidates for the job, but there's no way I could see Philbin using it as a selling point as if he's already in the bag because he wasn't.
     
  6. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I don't believe that most experts agree that Tannehill is a reach at #8. I see it as mixed at best. I've been following the draft for years and there are experts who's opinions I trust more than others. The experts I give more credence to have been on Tannehill as a first rounder for months, but the general consensus I see is that most experts agree that Tannehill has franchise QB potential. I used to scout the NFL for a living and IMO Tannehill is clearly a franchise level talent. The part they disagree on is whether you take a guy who should develop for a year that early. IMO the ones who are questioning taking a QB that early are using outdated thinking. I see Tannehill as more ready than the QBs that went at 8 and 10 last year (the first year under the new CBA). The rules have changed and those thinking that Weeden will make it to our 2nd round pick are using the same thinking that caused us to miss on Graham at TE. The value for the TE position had gone up and Parcells was still using the old position valuation. It's the same with the QB position. Even the most stubborn are starting to admit that you don't win without a franchise level QB. You have to grab that when you can. I love Kuechly as a prospect and I see him as an immediate impact player, but it won't matter if we don't find the franchise level QB. Those who want immediate impact will always find a reason not to take a QB in the first and rationalize taking a QB later. IMO that thinking is why we have been a bad team for decades. It's Wanny taking the immediate impact of a CB over the potential of Brees. We've been there and done that it's resulted in decades of futility. As for the QBs available later in this draft and most any draft, they are long shots at best. Russell Wilson is the only later QB I like and even I have to admit that the odds are against him.
     
  7. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    ^^ What do you have against paragraphs?
     
  8. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO it's likely that Philbin had talked to Sherman and had an idea that he was the probable OC. That doesn't mean it was a done deal. I also think it's likely that they discussed Tannehill and Philbin's opinion of him. If I were the GM I would definitely talk to the coaching candidate about what he thought was important in a QB. And I would examine his opinion on QBs who I liked and disliked. We would have to be able to find some common ground on the most important position. As I said before, I believe that the F.O. liked Manning, but Philbin and Sherman were cooler on him, that Philbin and Sherman liked Flynn, but that the F.O. was cooler on him and that Tannehill was the guy they probably all liked. I think he was the common ground. I don't believe that was the deciding reason to hire Philbin, but I do believe that it was discussed among the reasons the hiring could work.
     
  9. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I've left this thread alone because it, like any other quarterback, draft gotta have thread, it's the same conversation over and over, but I will offer this (forgive if it's already been said).

    If Philbin AND Sherman want Tannehill...if THEY believe he has what it takes, then by all means, if we can draft him when our number comes up, then let's draft him. What I DON'T want to see us do however, is screw up our draft by trading away the barn for a quarterback.

    I know this is going to sound contradictory in a way, but I really don't see this quarterback class as a class worth trading the barn away for, especially when you're talking about the 3rd rated quarterback in the draft...but then again, Marino's senior year at Pitt was dismal, throwing for 3100 yards, 17tds and 23 ints...and yet, he turned out to be the most prolific passer in NFL history!!

    Could Tannehill be another Marino? Not gonna hold my breath, but if we do draft him, I have confidence in Philbin and Sherman's ability to mold him into a franchise quarterback, but like I said during the offseason regarding Flynn...

    If we DON'T draft him...then apparently those two didn't feel he had what it took, although I bet there will be a push by Sherman to draft him since he did coach him.

    We'll see.
     
  10. Colmax

    Colmax Well-Known Member

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  11. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    I feel like Ryan Tannehill has already become Chad Henne.
     
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  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Yeah we're skipping a few steps, lol.

    But seriously...Chad Henne with 4.5 speed and the ability to manage pressure and throw on the run like Tannehill can...that's not Chad Henne at all. That's closer to Josh Freeman.
     
  13. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    For me, I'd chage Tannehill also to thrilled and probably add Osweiler to cautiously optimistic with Wilson, but basically I agree with your feelings.
     
  14. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    Well, this period of time in 2007 and it was a foregone conclusion that Miami would be going after a QB by the name of Quinn...I think any speculation is just that...speculation...I have an eerie feeling there are going to be a lot of Ted Ginn, Jr. responses when we don't select Tannehill...assuming he's there at 8... And if they should pass on him at 8....well, it'll be interesting anyway....
     
  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Sportsbook.com has a line up on whether the Dolphins draft Ryan Tannehill at #8 overall. It's split evenly at -120 Yes and -120 No.
     
  16. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    Those are horrible odds. Who the hell would bet that either way?
     
  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The book always takes about 15 or 20 percent off the top of your winnings. A line of -120 means if you bet $100 and lose, you lose that $100, but if you win, you get that $100 back plus $83.33.
     
  18. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    I have half a mind to put $1,000 on them to not take him...
     
  19. jpep13

    jpep13 Coach Of The Year Club Member

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    Any chance of miami drafting Weeden and Wilson?
     
  20. seabass0795

    seabass0795 New Member

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    All I want is Ingram @8 :yes:
    IMO Tannenhill is overrated. The only reason he is a top ten pick is because of the desperation of teams for qbs and the lack of qbs in the draft. I Believe in Moore!!
    1) Ingram
    2) Randle
    3) Maybe Osweiller or Cousins (someone who can develop in case
    3) Another WR
     
  21. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    LOL. I'm the opposite. I'm betting on it to happen.
     
  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    No, highly doubtful. And by highly I mean 99.9999% chance it doesn't happen.
     
  23. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    Eh. I just think someone will want him, including us, which is known. He wont make it to us. For such an uncertain thing, the NFL Draft, a QB dropping to 8 to a QB starved team, just is rare, and those are great odds that it doesnt happen
     
  24. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    I know how sports betting works lol. I was referring to the lines though. A -120 line is typically for favorites. So basically they are saying it is a favorite for us to land Tannehill and at the same time not land him which is paradoxical. Typically when you see one line of -120, the other line is +120. Can't say I've seen an odd where both sides are the favorite before.
     
  25. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    Yes but with an event so uncertain ive seen it. And understand it. Although a little surprised the not drafting isnt more favored.
     
  26. jinx

    jinx Well-Known Member

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    Books add a lot of extra vig for props like these. On a normal 20c line (eg, a baseball game), the line would be -110/-110. Essentially you're paying double the vig on this prop.
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That's really not the case though. You almost never see a bet that is split -120/+120. In fact, I've never seen one period.
     
  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    This is correct.

    My understanding is that they charge double the fee on props like this because of the potential for people betting to know a lot more than they do about which side will come out victorious. Good example being when Bovada came out with a series of lines on which players will run faster at the NFL Combine. They had props that were just plain silly, like Robert Griffin versus Russell Wilson, etc. Even with $100 maximums, anyone with any amount of Draft knowledge should have been able to clean them out for $500 or more.
     
  29. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Prop bets will do that...
     
  30. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    They will always increase juice for bets that are very low-volume.
     
  31. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Peter King (the all-knowing) has Miami taking Tannehill, and Cleveland trading back into the first to pick up Weeden AFTER they take Trent Richardson. That would be a haul.
     
  32. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    My assumption has been that Cleveland goes either Richardson or Blackmon with their 4th overall and then comes back with Weeden at #22. I see Richardson as the more likely pick just b/c there are so many WRs in this draft.
     
  33. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Not at -120/+120 though.
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Good deal for both teams, really.
     
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  35. Omaha

    Omaha Season Ticket Holder

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    so would you prefer Tannehill over Weeden then?
     
  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    If the Dolphins take Tannehill then I think Cleveland may try and wait until #37 to take Weeden.
     
  37. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    No.

    I'm changing my sig. No offense to you, but I'm tired of being asked this question about 1500 times.
     
  38. Bulldog

    Bulldog New Member

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    Sorry if you've answered this question before, but who would you rather have, Weeden or Tannehill?
     
  39. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    I seen alot of +110/-110 on SB Props from 5Dimes....
     
  40. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Sure they do. Its usually for in-game props though.

    But looking at sportsbook dot com now, they have:

     

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