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The more talk of Tannehill, the more worried I get about this pick....

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by CANEPHINS, Apr 12, 2012.

  1. CANEPHINS

    CANEPHINS No Tats & Dreads Allowed

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    No secret that I have been against drafting Tannehill from the start. His body of work in college didn't impress me. He is a great athlete, but so were many other busts who have been first round draft picks at the QB position. Potential is there for him to be a stud QB. You don't draft potential at #8. You especially don't trade up to #3 to draft potential. You don't draft need at #8, you get the player that is the best fit on the board who is the best player on the board. We have plenty of whole we can fill based on whoever is available at #8. Is it a WR that is there? Is it a DB or OT? Is it a DL? The potential to screw up this pick is HUGE and I think selecting Tannehill, or even trading up for him, increases our bust factor with our 1st pick in the 2012 draft.

    Here is one thing that scares me more than drafting him based off his potential. It is drafting him because Sherman was his coach in college. OC's come and go in this league. There is nothing to say some school or job doesn't come calling Sherman's way after this season and be bolts for those pastures. We are then saddled with a QB that we took because he was worked in Sherman's system. Not good...wouldn't be prudent (to quote Carvey doing Bush). Drafting him, or even worse trading up for him, based off of this is further increasing the reach factor of this selection.

    There is all this talk of him that has shot him up the boards. Yet the body of work isn't there to support him. Is the skill set there? Sure. Is the potential there? Sure. Could he turn out to be the next Brady? Maybe. Could he turn out to be the next Couch? Probably. Is the likely hood there for him to be Couch over Brady? Much more so than the other way around.

    If we are selecting him because it would appease the fans...that is a huge problem. There are other QB's we could take later on without sacrificing further draft picks or missing out on players that can start now with our first selection.

    The option with this draft isn't to trade up. It is to either get that stud player at 8 who can start now and make an impact or trade down and get multiple impact now players. IMO, Tannehill is not the solution but further compounds the problem. He is Matt Moore and we have Matt Moore. No need to draft another of what we already have on the roster. I like Matt Moore, but it doesn't mean we need 2 of him on the roster.

    If I was going to select a QB at this point, I would hedge my bets and shoot for Weeden in round 2. It is either that or trade down later in one and draft him where he has more value for that pick, plus we can pick up an additional #1 for next season. Weeden has the ability to start now and is mature enough to jump into the position. He has a body of work that is impressive, but you do know that he is no spring chicken and his window will be smaller than any other Qb in this draft. If we pass on him, then the next best bet for an NFL QB would be Cousins. I know the buzz surrounding the kids from Arizona St, but 1 year starters scare me. Thing is that he is shooting up boards right now, and that is a huge red flag. Cousins is a solid, but is a potential type of player. That is why he is a solid 3rd round pick in my book. A 3rd round pick isn't going to come in and start for you on day 1. But he can sit for a year and then lets see what he has after he has learned the system. Weeden could come in and start on day 1 if need be.

    Fact is that based on our history we need to be very cautious with Tannehill and selecting him. Sure, he is the pretty pick right now. He is the pick that the "fans" want Ireland to make. But is he one that is worth sacrificing 2 years worth of first round picks for? Is he the one that is pretty as long as you are drunk, but you will hate yourself for even considering it when you sober up? I think Tannehill is the latter in all these cases. Cinderella is at the ball right now and after our pick at #8 (or #3), the clock will strike midnight and he will turn back into an lonely chamber maid stepsister.
     
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  2. hammer

    hammer New Member

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    I tend to agree but what bothers me is what else is available at 8. I don't like Reiff, Couples or Floyd. To me the only players available at 8 that would be potential Pro Bowlers are Fletcher Cox , Luke Kuechly, and David DeCastro.

    Now that being said it's not my job on the line. I hope Ireland, Philbin and Sherman all believe Ryan Tannehill is a franchise QB. If they are completely sold they have to draft him regardless of value.
     
  3. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Where are you getting these rules from? In what "how to draft bible" does it say a QB with franchise or as you call it "stud" potential isn't worth the 8th pick?

    I've said it once and I'll say it again. There is no such thing as too high a draft pick when it comes to QBs with franchise potential. I don't know if they need to trade up to get him. That's for Ireland to decide. But if he's there at 8, yes, you absolutely do draft for potential when you have a need at the QB position. No team is going anywhere without one.
     
  4. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    It costs too much to trade up to #3, we can't afford to lose the draft picks.

    Listening to Todd McShay this morning, it was interesting to hear him speak specifically about Tannehill:
    - higher potential ceiling than Brandon Weedon
    - even posed the question comparing him to Barkley - McShay thinks Tannehill's potential ceiling is even higher than Barkley's
    - however, his opinion of Tannehill is that he also has a much lower floor, so there's the risk. which is why you shouldn't trade up to #3 for him.
    - overall, he has Tannehill ranked #8, so this nonsense that Tannehill is a reach at #8 seems pretty silly to me.
    - there are 5 elite players in this draft, none of which you'll get at #8
     
  5. hammer

    hammer New Member

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    I used to feel that way but I'm starting to view Fletcher Cox as an elite player.
     
  6. Mk2

    Mk2 New Member

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    Tannehill had (in his short sample of games) 2 games where his team was ahead by a lot of points and he threw 3 Ints in eventual losses. He was 1-5 against 6 top ranked teams in 2011 and a TD to Int ration of basically 1:1 in those games (saying he had an overall pedestrian performance against good teams is being kind)

    Tannehill is a decent prospect but no where near the first round (traditionally) much less the top 10. Its' mind boggling to think he cold go 4th to Browns...that is bat **** crazy
     
  7. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    Just say "No" to Tannehill in the 1st round.Fins could get by with Moore this year.
     
  8. dsteve

    dsteve Banned

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    odds are you won't have a top 3 pick in the near future. it just doesn't happen like that. eventually you're gonna have to draft a qb outside of the top 3 or 5 (where all the dead locked studs will be) or you're gonna have to sell out to move up. it's either that or take a reach on someone like tanny because drafting these 2nd and 3rd round guys doesnt typically work out either.
     
  9. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The upshot of this is that it would get Jeff Ireland fired, which would probably be a good thing.
     
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  10. dsteve

    dsteve Banned

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    btw, tanny is already better than moore talent wise and he's only started 19 games in college. better arm, more accurate etc. moore has reached his potential, he's a solid back up.
     
  11. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    So let me get this straight, another 2-3 years with mediocre QB play would be positive to get Ireland fired? How many fans do you think will be attendance by year three of another failed QB experiment? There is NO UPSHOT, Ireland or no Ireland if we whiff on the next QB. No silver lining. How about rooting for Ireland to turn this team around?
     
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  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Jeff Ireland is what he is.

    And if he comes out of this off season without a significant quarterback that shows promise this year, he will likely be fired before the 2013 Draft.
     
  13. dsteve

    dsteve Banned

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    ireland has 2-3 years for some of these picks to pan out. by then we should about pouncey, odrick and davis and who ever we draft this year in the first, wether it be a qb or not.
     
  14. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    Some would really enjoy Ireland to sell out to jump up to number 3 in order to get the potential franchise QB.
    Those same people would throw Ireland straight under the bus when his draft failed.
    As Gruden said POTENTIAL means something they haven't done yet.
     
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  15. dsteve

    dsteve Banned

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    I'd wanna murder him if he sold out to get to number 3 but didnt wanna offer anything for 2 or 1. trading up doesnt make sense while trading down makes a hell of a lot of sense. I really like decastro but a guard that early? ouch. youd have a riot. trade it down, get someone beastly and some picks. maybe use the thirds you got for marshell and some of the picks for trading down to get back in the first for weeden?

    I just feel like a stud at 8 or trading down plus weeden will be better than tanny and whatever is available with our second rd pick, especially if you can trade down from 8 and pick up some more ammo to get back in the 1st round.
     
  16. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I've said more than a dozen times on this board, I wouldn't blame Ireland for missing on Tannehill or any other highly drafted QB. I'd be happy he is probably making the proper investment in the position. I will; however, blame him if he doesn't even try and attempts winning in this league with mediocre QB play.

    That's a cute quote, but by that philosophy Andrew Luck or RGIII also shouldn't be drafted high. They've accomplished the same amount of nothing in the NFL as Ryan Tannehill.

    FWIW, I won't blame Ireland for not trading up to get Tannehill. But if he's there at 8 and another D or O lineman is the pick...
     
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  17. CANEPHINS

    CANEPHINS No Tats & Dreads Allowed

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    We passed on Brady Quinn. Do you think we should have taken him then at 9 when we had the chance, not knowing what you know now?

    At the time I was very sour on Quinn and was begging for us to either draft Patrick Willis at 9 or trade down to get him.

    Instead we did neither, and gladly didn't take Quinn, but instead wasted the pick on Ginn. :tantrum:
     
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  18. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    Matt Ryan (who had way more experience as a SR) threw for about a 1:1 ratio against better teams his SR season at Boston College. While I don't find Matt Ryan to be an amazing QB, I certainly think he's better than anything we've had recently (except for a healthy Pennington).

    I'm not trying to say Tannehill will certainly be as good as Ryan, but those games you're citing aren't proof of how Tannehill will or won't perform in the NFL either.

    While I don't think Tannehill will go in the top 5, I don't find it at all crazy to think he could deserve to go at #8. I don't even think it's "bat **** crazy" for him to go #4, although I think there will be better players available.
     
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  19. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    Knowing what I know now, I still think we should've taken Quinn at #9 (unless we would've taken Willis).
     
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  20. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I have been saying for months that Tannehill is not worth a first round selection. He was nothing but a mediocre QB in college and I have no idea why some on here think he will suddenly become a franchise type QB at the pro level. He played against three decent college defenses last year and he threw three interceptions in each of these games. In fact I think Tannehill would be a better WR in the NFL than he will be a QB.

    As a late second round pick or third round selection, Tannehill might be worth the risk to see if he can develop in a decent QB in the NFL. As a first round pick, and especially a top ten pick, I just don't get it. I just hope that the Browns are as sold on Tannehill as some of the fans on here are and they select him before the Dolphins are on the clock. I personally feel that selecting Tannehill with the eight pick in the draft will only set this organization back in regards to finding their QB of the future.
     
  21. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't really believe that's true.

    Let's say Ireland missed out on Tannehill because he doesn't want to trade up, then he tries to wait for Weeden to get to pick #42 overall and he doesn't get there, so we miss out on both guys. We enter the season with Matt Moore, David Garrard and, let's say, Nick Foles whom we picked up in the 4th round.

    It is my opinion that will get Jeff Ireland fired before the 2013 NFL Draft.

    Now, I'm making some assumptions when I say that. For one, even though I like David Garrard, I think his health is a serious question, and even if he is healthy he probably won't win anything significant for us. On the flip side, I think Matt Moore comes down to earth a bit and shows everyone why he's not really a starter in this league. Meanwhile, I doubt a rookie Nick Foles would show anything to get anyone excited.

    Those are assumptions. Could they be wrong? Absolutely.

    But if those assumptions are right, yes I believe Ireland is fired before the 2013 NFL Draft, for a number of reasons:

    1. When Jeff Ireland takes flack around the league for his awkward handling of players, his "borderline degrading" recruiting methods (which comes directly from players and agents), and Jeff himself admits that he's an evaluator not a recruiter, I think that secretly rubs Steve Ross wrong. He won't say it, but Steve Ross is a real estate guy, the guy that tried to sell the Orange Carpet, the guy that tried to sell the city of Miami on the glamorous Dolphins by having T-Pain re-write the Fight Song and having celebrity minority owners, etc. He knows the importance of being able to outline a vision, and get people to believe in that vision, and that's all 'recruiting' entails. Ireland can't do that. He's weak in those categories. I think Ross deep down wants someone in charge of the football operations that inspires people and has no trouble communicating a clear vision and getting people, be they fans, coaches, players, whatever, to believe in that vision. Jeff Ireland doesn't do any of that, and even worse, he seems completely OK with it. Everything is "trust me", "trust me", "trust me". If that's the case, you'd better be knocking these personnel picks out of the park. He's not been.

    2. It's really very simple. This off season Jeff Ireland promised to get a quarterback upgrade, just like he promised to do the same last off season. We're talking about direct promises, statements made in public (and in private). Last off season he ended up begging off that promise. He HAD said that he would get a quarterback that could give Chad Henne real competition and perhaps beat him out. But when he signed Matt Moore, he gave him a backup's contract, and admitted that Chad Henne is the starting quarterback, there would not be an open camp competition between Henne and Moore. The snap counts were never divided up like you would in a competition. Henne was the starter all the way. That was a reneg on Ireland's direct promise. Now you fast forward a year, Ireland spoke a lot of big words and made a lot of big promises at the beginning of free agency about finding a big time quarterback and needing a big time quarterback in order to take the next step. Matt Moore fans were all pissed off because essentially he threw Moore under the bus. Guys like Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess talked about the same thing, taking their cues from the head of the football organization. Even worse, Ireland's confidence in getting a quarterback led Steve Ross to make a bunch of big statements and promises. If they enter the season with just Matt Moore and David Garrard, Jeff Ireland is once again renegging on his promise, and this time he's making Steve Ross look bad because Ross talked a big game about getting a QB and then all the sudden the fans are supposed to believe David Garrard is that big time QB.

    It'll be too much. The more mediocre Matt Moore and David Garrard play in 2012, each week will bring Ireland closer to losing his job. This is especially true if quarterbacks that were acquired and available in the 2011 and 2012 off seasons end up enjoying any success with their respective teams. For instance, Andy Dalton made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, though I personally felt it was undeserved. What if he gets even better, and makes the Pro Bowl again and this time deserves it? Jeff Ireland tried to sell everyone that there was no quarterback available to the Dolphins last off season. What if he misses out on Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden, and one or both of them looks good in 2012? What if Matt Flynn looks really awesome in Seattle?

    The only way Ireland can fight these forces working against him is by drafting a significant quarterback that gives the fanbase hope, and then from there he's got to hope that quarterback shows signs of being good, the earlier the better.
     
  22. CANEPHINS

    CANEPHINS No Tats & Dreads Allowed

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    Here is why it is "my opinion". In my opinion you aren't drafting in the first round based on potential. You aren't drafting a guy in the first round to sit on your bench, learn, and become the guy 3 or 4 years later. Rare times that happens, but not everyone is thrown into a crappy situation like Aaron Rodgers...who wasn't taken by GB because of potential. Rodgers could have started game 1 for any team that took him, except the teams that had solid hall of famers starting like GB did with Brett.

    When you are drafting in the first round you take the highest player you have on your board. If Tannehill is the highest ranked guy Ireland has on his board, ok take him. If Trent Richardson is the highest ranked player...well, you have to take him. If Cox is there and he is the highest rated player, take him. But if Tannehill isn't the highest rated and you take him because you see potential in him that he can be that guy down the line...well, that isn't the reason to draft him at #8.

    Yes, you need a franchise QB. We have known that for quite some time. We were burned because we never planned for the day Marino retired and we have been floundering with our QB choices ever since. Point is, there are guys you take later on based on potential. The guy you select high in the first round is a franchise guy...he is the guy you are putting on the tickets...he is the guy you are spoon feeding to us. He is the meal ticket and investment. You miss on him, you miss on more than just the #8 pick. You reach and trade up for him at #3, giving up more picks in return to get him, well...now you are sacrificing the future for potential. Not smart.
     
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  23. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    If this were the case, then surely the decision would be out of his hands.
     
  24. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

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    I feel the complete opposite.
     
  25. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    If we think weeden is our guy, like I do, I wouldn't risk hoping he is there when we pick in the second round. I would be happy with weeden at #8. I dont care what anyone says.
     
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  26. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't see why. Steve Ross is trusting his personnel guy to make personnel choices. By the start of the 2013 off season, it will be obvious that Ireland is not making hard choices, but just keeps passing the buck instead.

    As I said, if the Dolphins try and enter the season with Matt Moore, David Garrard and let's say a Nick Foles, the odds HEAVILY favor Ireland being fired before the 2013 NFL Draft. Every week that the group of QBs in Miami play mediocre football, while other players that Miami could have had succeed...gets Ireland one step closer.
     
  27. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    2-3 years for picks to pan out is becoming less and less true. The Packers, Steelers, Giants, Eagles, Patriots, Texans, Bengals, Chiefs, Falcons, Ravens, Panthers, Cowboys, and Redskins all have multiple impact players who are young. A lot of them did great things even as rookies.
     
  28. CANEPHINS

    CANEPHINS No Tats & Dreads Allowed

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    Right....your first round pick needs to be able to step in right now and play, and be an impact player. Especially at 8. A player taken at 8 can't sit for a couple of years and hope that the potential matches the selection.
     
  29. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Steve Ross does trust his personnel guy. But if it comes down to "you must get a new QB", then I have a hard time believing that hasn't been communicated to Ireland.

    And as you mentioned, this hypothetical is also predicated on "other players that Miami could have had" succeeding. Surely if Tannehill and Weeden aren't in Miami, and look like Blaine Gabbert did last year, then I don't see how Ireland can be blamed. If one of those guys does play well and not in Miami, then surely Ireland would receive blame. But I don't think its as cut and dry as people want it to be.
     
  30. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    What do you think he should do? Trade up, draft a QB at #8, trade down, or try to find a QB in round 2?
     
  31. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I wanted Miami to take Brady Quinn. Whether the QB pans out or not, if there is a guy with franchise potential available at the pick and a team has a HUGE need at the position, you draft the QB. In this league where you aren't winning without a top 15 QB, the choice is pretty simple. If Ireland thinks he can win a superbowl with Moore / Garrard then he has no business being a GM in this league.
     
  32. PhinPhanatic

    PhinPhanatic New Member

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    Try and trade down. While I think many teams are trying the same the 8th oick may finally be a benefit. Wont cost as much for. say Dallas, to trade up and get Poe and it would with Minny, Tenn etc. If we trade down its Fleener-Weeden-S Hill if possible! If not I still like Coples or Irvin at 8 with Weeden to follow.
     
  33. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    I say this because I dont want us to get tannehil but I think we will. I believe Cleveland will get weeden with their 22nd pick. I wish we were in Cleveland position but we're not. There's no way weeden will be in the 2nd round if Cleveland doesn't get tannehil with their first pick
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Come away from this Draft with Ryan Tannehill or Brandon Weeden.

    The safer option from Ireland's perspective would be Tannehill. Most people acknowledge Tannehill might not be ready to succeed immediately, which gives Ireland a 'pass' if he doesn't show much in 2012. Also, there would be a diffusion of responsibility working in Ireland's favor, which judging by the way he's conveniently pushed all bad personnel moves onto Bill Parcells from 2008 to 2010, Jeff Ireland is all about.
     
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  35. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    I hope they grab the best available QB in the draft. Just not trading up to get one probley not at 8 either.
    As for Luck or RG3 that would be a different story yes an athletic heisman trophy winner QB or the best QB prospect in years should pan out to really have potential. Just don't see anyone left close to those two with the same type of crudentials.
     
  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    It was Jeff Ireland himself who said the words that this team doesn't take the next step until they get a big time quarterback. That's Ireland himself who said that. So he shouldn't be answerable to it?

    I think you're transfiguring my point. My point is that if Ireland tries to get away with what I said, ending up with Garrard, Moore and let's say a Nick Foles in the 4th round, then he will be fired in the 2013 off season because of the things that I predict will happen in the 2012 season. It's not like Ireland will be fired the day after the 2012 Draft, although part of me wonders if that could also happen.
     
  37. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    That rules out a lot of QBs, then. It's not often a rookie QB is a positive impact player.
     
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  38. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, but I didn't mean to ask for what Jeff Ireland should do. Say you're the GM of the Miami Dolphins. What do you do? I guess you take Tannehill or Weeden, but do you stay at #8 and take one of them there?
     
  39. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    All things considered (except Ireland's personal feelings) it's probably the best time to fire him.
     
  40. Rhody Phins Fan

    Rhody Phins Fan Well-Known Member

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    Says who? You take the guy who you think will contribute the most to the team over the length of his career.
     
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