1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

The Importance of the Tight End

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Jan 15, 2012.

  1. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
    0
    Dec 13, 2007
    We just saw a day dominated by Vernon Davis, Rob Gronkowski, and Jimmy Graham. Earlier this year I did a little research on the relationship between tight end play and winning.

    Prior to the final game of the season, the median number of catches for starting tight ends during the regular season was 46.5. So I split the group of tight ends in two, those with 46 or fewer catches, and those with 47 or more catches.

    The teams with starting tight ends who caught 46 or fewer passes had an average winning percentage of .379. They won a shade under 4 games out of every 10. That translates to about a 6-10 record on a season.

    By contrast, the teams with starting tight ends who caught 47 or more passes had an average winning percentage of .621. They won a shade greater than 6 games out of every 10. That translates to about a 10-6 record on a season.

    That's a huge difference IMO. A four-game difference in the win column associated with having a tight end who catches more than the median number of passes in the league (47 or more).

    Anthony Fasano had 28 catches at that point in the season (through 15 games).

    I've thought for a while now that we're missing that true mismatch down the seam from the tight end spot. These are the mismatch players in today's game IMO. They're too big and strong to be covered by corners or safeties, and many of them are too fast to be covered by linebackers. Jimmy Graham is your prototype in today's game.

    We need one of these guys in this upcoming draft IMO. It's too important a position in today's game.
     
  2. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    13,969
    3,367
    113
    Jul 5, 2009
    Coby Fleener!
     
  3. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

    25,411
    5,743
    113
    Dec 6, 2007
    Need a QB to throw first. Glad we drafted Koa Misi over Gronk and Taking Jon Jerry over Graham and Moeki. BRILLIANT!
     
  4. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    13,843
    10,283
    113
    Dec 18, 2007
    Columbia, South Carolina
    There is no doubt that a big TE that can catch is a huge bonus for an offense. The Pats are a nightmare right now, how to you account for 2 huge TEs that can catch or run like that? I don't think the front office ignores the TE position as a philosophy, they just need to take a few shots in the draft. I like Fasono but theres no doubt we could use a down the field and red zone threat at the TE position. Combine a quality pass catching TE and Marshall, Bess and Bush and we have some serious talent on offense.
     
  5. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Ain't no opinion about it. It's a huge difference, pure and total fact. Great idea and research by the way. Very thought provoking!
     
  6. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member


    That 2010 draft had so many great TE prospects, it was utter folly to not dip into that pool of talent. Don't know if we are to blame Parcells or Ireland or both to an even degree.
    This upcoming draft, the stud horse TE prospect though is D'wayne Allen of Clemson. If he makes it to 40th overall, we need to pull the trigger.
     
    Aquafin likes this.
  7. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

    7,723
    5,683
    113
    Nov 30, 2007
    Good to see you back, Shoes. I'm totally with you in regard to the overall importance of a seam busting TE, but I think the winning correlation is a somewhat misleading statistic. Let's put it in a little context: There's 17 TEs that finished the season with more than 50 catches. For the purpose of this argument, I'll make that 16 because two of them (Gronkowski and Hernandez) are on the same team.

    - Out of these 16 TEs, 11 happened to have a top 15 QB (based on QB rating). The winning percentage of these 11 teams is 0.68.
    - The winning percentage of the remaining 5 teams (those who had a TE with 50+ catches but not a top 15 QB) is 0.475.

    Like I said, I'm totally with you on the fundamental importance of TEs in today's game, but I'm not sure it's a position that directly correlates to winning.
     
    Stitches and shouright like this.
  8. pitted151

    pitted151 New Member

    87
    5
    0
    Sep 21, 2011
    South Florida
    Ireland was scouting Graham, but instead rated Jerry higher and drafted him... that was not even a position of need at the time. I guess Ireland felt Fasano was good enough. That is the problem with Ireland, he's making too many big misses on draft day.
     
    Aquafin and mi2cents like this.
  9. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    13,843
    10,283
    113
    Dec 18, 2007
    Columbia, South Carolina
    I do think we missed the boat on quite a few TE prospects over the last few years, theres no doubt. I'm not sure if its because we've viewed the position as a block first position or that we think Fasano is really all we need but we have certainly passed on some great talent at the position. Hopefully watching the Pats offense roll over just about everyone wakes the front office up.
     
  10. pitted151

    pitted151 New Member

    87
    5
    0
    Sep 21, 2011
    South Florida
    The TE had evolved in this league, being that Sparano was a run first guy, they might have looked at the TE as a block first. That was the whole problem with Parcells coming down here, he installed his outdated blueprint that no longer works with today's modern players. And Sparano was no coach to adjust to the changing game as evident in his failure of in game adjustments.
     
  11. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
    0
    Dec 13, 2007
    With you totally on the stronger relationship being between QB play and winning.

    However, if you start with the premise that having a very good QB is necessary but not sufficient for title contention, which is what I think the true picture is right now, then you get your QB first because he's necessary, and you may just believe a tight end is the next item on your list, given that a very good QB alone is not sufficient for title contention.

    The way the rules have started to favor the passing game, I think you could even make an argument that the tight end position has become more important than the left tackle position. If you worry speed rushers about hitting the quarterback in a way that's going to get them penalized and/or fined, you take away some of their effectiveness, and some of the need to have high-quality players blocking them.

    I'm not saying the importance of tackle blocking has dwindled to nothing, just that in a league where the rules are set up to favor the passing game, getting a very good QB first and foremost, followed by the player he can throw to who creates the biggest mismatches (the tight end), may be a better recipe for success.

    You essentially take care of a big part of the way the ball has to be moved down the field to win in today's game. Of course you need your pass blocking too, so that can't be too far down the list, but I think if you have your QB and your pass blocking and no mismatch players in the passing game, you're going to struggle compared to the teams that can ride the Vernon Davises, Rob Gronkowskis, and Jimmy Grahams all the way down the field like we saw yesterday.
     
    texanphinatic likes this.
  12. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    It's very likely having top tight ends helps a good deal in those QB's having high passer ratings.
     
    mbsinmisc likes this.
  13. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    Anyone else think this was Ladies Lounge thread and opened it and were disappointed?
     
    finsincebirth, Stitches and shouright like this.
  14. GreysonWinfield

    GreysonWinfield Release The Hounds

    3,982
    1,434
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Yup
     
  15. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

    53,148
    31,935
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Katy, TX
    Fleener, Allen, Orson Charles, and Ladarius Green IMO would all be valuable additions for us.
     
  16. Phyl

    Phyl New Member

    654
    144
    0
    Dec 26, 2010
    But OL always makes the whole team better. That's why we've had unprecedented success since we drafted Jake Long.
     
  17. Rhody Phins Fan

    Rhody Phins Fan Well-Known Member

    4,348
    1,436
    113
    Jan 14, 2009
    Imagine an offense with Gronk and Graham? A man can dream...
     
  18. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

    3,163
    2,325
    113
    Sep 13, 2011
    Gronk and Graham are pretty good and I think thats largely due to the franchise QB's throwing them the ball.
     
  19. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    10,641
    2,121
    113
    Dec 8, 2007
    Hialeah, FL
    First of all thanks Shou for taking the time and compile these numbers... they are really interesting to say the least...

    Just wondering if these other TE that met the minimun of your criteria (47 catches) has helped their teams win any more games than they would have won without their receptions... were they added to your data?

    D. Keller and NYJ- 65 rcpt, Team record 8-8...
    D. Celek and Phily- 62 rcpt, Team record 8-8...
    F. Davis and Wash- 59 rcpt, Team record 5-11...
    A. Gates and SD- 64 rcpt, Team record 8-8...
    K Winslow and TB- 75 rcpt, Team record 4-12...

    If you notice that not one of these teams has a winning record... why???

    IMO, the TE's that are synonymous with teams with winning records bare more with having them implemented with the passing attack or the scheme of the Offensive phylosophy... and a whole lot of talent at other Offensive positions...

    Most teams use their TE as a 3rd option or their checkdown option for QBs when their primary or secondary targets are covered...

    If you decide to get these big TE with good hands and good speed, you have to have the Offensive phylosiphy in place, and they have to be part of your attacking style of Offense...

    You have to have the OC implement that scheme or you will just have a guy like Fasano, held in to block and use him as a deep threat once in a while...
     
    shouright likes this.
  20. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

    23,388
    16,296
    113
    Nov 22, 2007
    Denver, CO
    If only teams could see three years into the future.... what a shame.

    Gronkowski, Graham, or Moeki may not have developed in Miami like they currently are with their respected teams.
     
  21. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
    0
    Dec 13, 2007
    I suspect it's because there is no single position that, alone, causes teams to have a winning record. A tight end is only part of the puzzle.

    I think the major winning recipe nowadays involves a very good quarterback and players who can create mismatches in the passing game. The tight end is one such player, as is the wide receiver who has a size and athleticism advantage, such as Calvin Johnson, as is the running back who can catch and be elusive in space, such as Darren Sproles.

    If I were building a team right now, I'd be focusing on obtaining those players first and foremost. That's where the game is going IMO, and if you don't have those players, you're going to get dominated by the teams that do.
     
    Aquafin and Disnardo like this.
  22. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

    14,282
    5,005
    113
    Sep 10, 2009
    Boone, NC
    Eff this team, I wanted Gronkowski badly. Apparently, our medical staff effed us again by saying he had back concerns...No vision.
     
  23. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

    27,364
    31,261
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    I completely agree with the importance of the TE. I think it has always been one of the key additions when you have a young QB b/c the throws to the middle of the field are generally the easiest to see and throw. They also tend to be available quickly so you have fewer issues with pocket awareness. TE has also been a mismatch position for the defense, if you have a guy that can run. On every play that he's out there the defense has to decide whether to use a smaller coverage guy to cover the TE and be more susceptible to the run or be at a disadvantage if we throw to the TE. This year there's a new dynamic. The new defenseless receiver rules have conditioned the DBs to aim lower on their tackles. So the QBs know that if you have a big athletic TE that throwing the ball high gives your guy the best chance. The fact is that there aren't many 6'4" - 6'5" secondary players so throwing it high generally smart anyways. Now that the DBs are aiming lower on their tackles the high catch becomes even easier as their is less likely to be interference at the catch point.
     
    shouright likes this.
  24. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,650
    67,542
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Started a couple of threads about why we should draft Gronkowski 2 years ago, even wrote how I had inside info on his back, and that ''he would soon be, the best in the game'' and that the back wasn't going to be an issue.. didn't happen, if the Dolphins could make that up to in the form of Dwayne Allen I would appreciate it, and start the forgiving process..lol

    It was a monumental mistake by whoever in our front office not to draft Gronk, he's not just good, he's the best in the game..I believe Parcells was still here, and if he was, I'am sure he gave his bogus personnel opinion on him.

    Anyways, Allen is so very good..a complete natural in every wa........ naturally strong too with savvy route running ability and great hands..

    I have him going late first, and he is a player that I would move up a bit to get..

    I think he should be our #2 target no ifs ands or butts this time.
     
    shouright likes this.
  25. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

    27,364
    31,261
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    Exactly! I have been pounding the table for those offensive positions being the key offensive play making positions because of how they act to complement each other for the last few years. With the C and LT (along with Marshall and Bush) we already have in place you're not that far from the most efficient winning formula. You add a second pass rusher and a ball hawking S to the defense and you're golden.
     
    shouright and djphinfan like this.
  26. mracer

    mracer New Member

    429
    65
    0
    Dec 13, 2009
    I thought Clay was drafted to be a TE seam threat? He showed some good flashes.
     
  27. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

    14,282
    5,005
    113
    Sep 10, 2009
    Boone, NC
    He did, and I have to credit Ireland for his late round savvy. I hope he can at least duplicate it again this year.
     
  28. Phinastic

    Phinastic Active Member

    184
    43
    28
    Jan 3, 2012
    Aaron Hernadez. Can we pry him from New England somehow?
     
  29. jsizzle

    jsizzle Banned

    2,935
    496
    0
    Jan 3, 2012
    A great TE is a mismatch no matter who it covering him. Nobody gameplanned for Fasano, he was just there. He is not a threat and never was one.
     
  30. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

    27,364
    31,261
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    He was a late round pick. That's not addressing the issue that's taking a late round flyer.
     
  31. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

    53,148
    31,935
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Katy, TX
    That doesn't mean he can't fill that role or doesn't ultimately address the issue. Antonio Gates wasn't even a late round pick, but he sure addressed the TE issue for the Chargers for plenty of time.

    Not every late round flyer addresses an issue ultimately, but when they work out they sure as heck can.
     
    Disgustipate likes this.
  32. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    10,641
    2,121
    113
    Dec 8, 2007
    Hialeah, FL
    I imagine the reason no body gameplans for Fasano, is that we really use him mostly as a blocking TE in run support. Sure sometimes he is ran up the seam, but those times are like maybe once or twice a game, and usually our QB will not look his way...

    We only use Fasano as an oulet receiver, and not the primary nor secondary taget...

    Now if we put him in the game plan and have him going up the seam 10 times a game or more and have our QB target him at least 6-8 times, then the Defense will have to game plan for him...
     
  33. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    Thank you.

    People need to start understanding that addressing a problem is rounds 1 & 2 (sometimes 3, depending on the draft). Anyone you get after that, that is an all world player is luck.
     
  34. DHPVW

    DHPVW DuB addict

    1,516
    248
    0
    Apr 1, 2010
    AZ-520
    I think if we could get Ladarius Green in the 3rd rd and use our 1st and 2nd in other areas that it would be a great pick. Fasano needs a more speedy TE opposite of him to open things up. Hopefully Daboll (if he's still around) will start designing a few more plays for our TE's. Doesn't seem like we use Fasano enough imo. Green is a freak! Fast and tall and shows great ability to catch the ball consistently. Hard worker that has plenty of talent and should be another Aaron Hernandez type TE just bigger & faster
     
  35. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,713
    6,282
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    You're certainly onto something. But just doing an eyeball correlation test, I see those TEs with big reception numbers coming from teams will really good QBs that throw the ball a ton.

    Look at the top TEs and other receivers in their offense. Graham is 3rd in receptions but he has two other teammates in the top 12, Sproles and Colston. Gronkowski is 5th but has two other receivers in the top 15, Welker is 1st and Hernandez is 15th. Pettigrew is 8th and Calvin Johnson is 4th, while their teammate Nate Burleson is a respectable 24th with 72 receptions. Tony Gonzalez is 14th while Roddy White is 2nd.

    When you get to Jason Whitten at 17th and Kellen Winslow at 22nd you start to see guys without a teammate with a lot of receptions, and thus teams with lower winning %s. Then you get down to Vernon Davis at 32nd, Dustin Keller at 35th, Antonio Gates at 37th and think that if their qbs were better (or with Rivers just had a more Rivers-like year) they would have more receptions since they are good receivers along the lines of guys higher up on the list.

    I think TEs are an important part of today's offenses. But the more important parts seem to be a good qb and a very pass oriented system. That's obviously not breaking news. But if you switched Anthony Fasano with Rob Gronkowski, Fasasno's receptions would probably increase and Gronkowski's would probably decrease. I'm not saying Fasano is as good as Gronkowski. He isn't. But Tom Brady is better than Matt Moore and the Patriots like to throw the ball more than we do. Thus their TEs get more receptions. And then because of all of that, they win more.
     

Share This Page