If RG3 returns to Baylor, and if L. Jones doesn't declare (who they have projected CLE takes with their 2nd 1st round pick @24) talk about chaos theory....ugly
This is my scenario BDH, I also think the Browns may not be the players for a Qb I thought they'd be. IIRC, Holmgren has something against taking Qb's with ultra high draft picks, he is also known to trade out.
We need more pass rushers. If we played a 4-3 Coples would be DE, but if we stay with the 3-4 I would only take him if it was thought that he could play with his hand off the ground.
Yep, my only question is whether he would the Sam or the Will. Would have loved a FS, an elite FS, but there is none in the draft this yr worth a Top 15 pick.
How many "fans" would laugh/cry/hang themselves, if Ireland trades up to #4 inplace of Redskins, and still drafts Coples for DE????
The way I see it is if RG 3 is gone, we should trade back and pick up more picks then take best player possible at a hole we need to fill. Then pick up Weeden in the second or third depending on if his draft stock lowers or highers
Would Ireland pull the trigger though? He chronically under values S play imo. This is also an area I'd think if Fisher were hired, he'd have a lot of input, in TN it seemed like he developed quality Safeties and Cb's.
I thought Barron was more of a SS than a FS. We could target someone like Markelle Martin from Oklahoma State though.
I just saw this post, but I think with Barkley out of this draft class it will heighten what you pointed out. I think the real wildcard is Tannehill.
Yes, I think he is more of a SS too. But Bell isn't getting any younger, and I don't think playmaking is limited to FS either.
Looks like all the games that effect our draft status are over with the early games 2-13 - Indy, Rams 3-12 - Minnesota 4-11 - Cleveland, Jax, Tampa Bay 5-10 - Miami, Washington 6-9 - Buffalo, KC Looks like the logjam at 5 wins is broken up. We're tied with the Skins at 5-10. So, after 15 weeks, we're either in the 7 or 8 hole, depending on SoS.
Was just going to add that the NFCE is historically weak this yr, that will boost our draft stock. We've reached the point were this stuff is appropriate, 8th is a crappy pick with Barkley sitting out. What is the highest pick we can have? #5 maybe?
how could we lose ground when we lost..i wish someone would start a thread for the last week of the season scenarios.
Because a team with a weaker SoS lost and jumped us Deej, Washington I'd think. This is one of the problems with all of this, interlocking interdependencies, we have no idea until the 2nd half vs the Jets next week were we shall draft.
If the choice is between 6th and losing to the Jets and 8th beating them? **** it, knock those *******s out.
If we want the second or third overall pick I think it can be done. As a fan I have never seen this team make a major trade to do something like that on draft day. Atleast I can't remember the last time it was done... At any rate I do think the second or third pick is ours if we want it. If we stay at 6,7,8 then it's BPA in my opinion. Between Luck, Kalil,Griffin,Blackmon, Morris Claiborne, Coples, Upshaw, and Jeffrey or Floyd one will be avalaible to us. I also like Luke Kuechly from Boston College. Landry Jones, and Tannahill are wildcards.
In my opinion the only reason we would trade up would be to secure a QB. I don't see us moving up in the draft to select anyone else.
On the subject of Miami's draft order, it boils down to this: If we win next week: #8 to #10 overall, most likely #9 overall If we lose next week: #5 to #8 overall, most likely #7 overall ----------5 Win Scenarios---------- The Packers and Saints are heavily favored in this weekend's remaining games. If they both win then the Falcons are locked in as the #6 seed. They SHOULD treat their Week 17 game against the Buccaneers as a bye, using the opportunity to rest all their starters and keep focused on their wildcard rematch versus the Saints. The impact of this is, if the Dolphins are a 5-win team and the Buccaneers beat the Falcons' backups in Week 17, then Miami moves up a slot based on strength of schedule. The Eagles just got eliminated from the playoffs. Once that sinks in, they could be in for a letdown week against the Redskins. If they lose, and Miami is a 5-win team, then the Dolphins move up another notch as the Redskins become a 6-win team. The Steelers could find out as early as halftime of their Week 17 game against the Browns that the Ravens are housing the Cincinnati Bengals. If that happens, Mike Tomlin could choose to pull starters during the second half against the Browns. The Browns are playing pretty tough with Seneca Wallace at QB. If that happens and the Browns win, and Miami is a 5-win team, then the Dolphins move up another notch based on a strength of schedule advantage over the Browns. ----------6 Win Scenarios---------- There are 11 teams with 6 wins or fewer in the NFL. This would lead some to believe the Dolphins could pick as low as #11 overall if they beat the Jets next week. Not true. The Dolphins have sealed a strength of schedule advantage over the Buffalo Bills, if they should find themselves tied as 6-win teams. This means the latest Miami could pick as a 6-win team is #10 overall. The Carolina Panthers are red hot right now. If I were a playoff team, any playoff team, I wouldn't want to face them. The Saints have the misfortune of facing them in Week 17. If they win against the Falcons this Monday (Saints favored by 7) then they'd be tied with the 49ers for the bye week, but the 49ers having the tiebreak advantage. The 49ers play the Rams in Week 17. Knowing that they have to win the game in order to keep the bye, good luck thinking the 49ers actually come even close to losing versus the hapless Rams. They could be housing the Rams by half time. If that's the case the Saints have nothing to play for in the second half against the Panthers, arguably knowing before the game even starts that they likely have nothing to play for. I think that puts the ball in the Panthers' court as being the favorite to win this game in this scenario. If the Dolphins are a 6-win team and have defeated the Jets, and the Panthers win here, then this bumps Miami ahead a notch from #10 to #9. The Denver Broncos have now lost two games in a row by more than three scores each, and this quasi-religious mystique that they and Tim Tebow have had going for them has most definitely faded. They face a Kansas City Chiefs team next week that has been rejuvenated under Romeo Crennel. They suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of the Raiders this week thanks to two blocked field goals. Not unlike the Eagles, their final playoff hopes have just been finally dashed. But the difference here is instead of playing a team that has been playing for nothing but pride for months now and has begun to play teams real tough (talking about the Redskins), they're playing a team that until two weeks ago was considered a lock for the playoffs and now seems to have zero control over their own precipitous slide. The Broncos are a deer in headlights and if anyone can continue to find the magic formula that makes Tim Tebow look like the embarrassment to quarterbacking that many see him as, I think it's Romeo Crennel. If the Dolphins are a 6-win team then a Chiefs victory would bump Miami ahead of the Chiefs, potentially moving them from #10 to #9 or from #9 to #8 depending on what happened with the Saints-Panthers game.
Figuring out all the teams tied with the same record will also be interesting for rounds 2-7 rotation and thus Traded Pick value of even a 2nd rounder tossed in. All exciting to figure out, but it all starts with a W or L vs. Jets, and then all the other currently tied teams with 5 wins, or 4 wins, and if any move up to get their 5th or 6th. Then once we know, it will an interesting couple of months plus looking for RG3 and L. Jones decisions to return or declare.
Some of the latest mock drafts I have seen have the Dolphins taking Riley Reiff, OT from Iowa, with their pick in the first round. Obviously the individuals conducting these drafts realize that Ireland has no clue when it comes to selecting actual offensive play makers in the draft. While I agree that the Dolphins need to upgrade their right tackle. I would much prefer they try to fill this need in free agency or later in the draft. The Dolphins need to do whatever they have to do to trade up and select either Luck or RG3. If this means they have to trade their first round picks over the next three or four years, plus a couple of second round picks to ensure they get one of these QB's, so be it.
You mean weeks don't you? They must declare by January 15th to be avalable for this year's draft if memory serves.
2012 FIRST-ROUND DRAFT SELECTION ORDER December 27, 2011 Non-Playoff Teams [TABLE="width: 524"] [TR] [TD] [/TD] [TD]Team [/TD] [TD]W-L [/TD] [TD]Opp W-L % [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1 [/TD] [TD]Indianapolis [/TD] [TD]2-13 [/TD] [TD].533 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2 [/TD] [TD]St. Louis [/TD] [TD]2-13 [/TD] [TD].588 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3 [/TD] [TD]Minnesota [/TD] [TD]3-12 [/TD] [TD].558 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4 [/TD] [TD]Jacksonville [/TD] [TD]4-11 [/TD] [TD].504 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5 [/TD] [TD]Cleveland [/TD] [TD]4-11 [/TD] [TD].529 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6 [/TD] [TD]Tampa Bay [/TD] [TD]4-11 [/TD] [TD].550 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7 [/TD] [TD]Washington [/TD] [TD]5-10 [/TD] [TD].475 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8 [/TD] [TD]Miami [/TD] [TD]5-10 [/TD] [TD].513 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]9 [/TD] [TD]Carolina [/TD] [TD]6-9 [/TD] [TD].500 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]10 [/TD] [TD]Kansas City [/TD] [TD]6-9 [/TD] [TD].517 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]11 [/TD] [TD]Buffalo [/TD] [TD]6-9 [/TD] [TD].517 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12 [/TD] [TD]Arizona [/TD] [TD]7-8 [/TD] [TD].475 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]13 [/TD] [TD]Philadelphia [/TD] [TD]7-8 [/TD] [TD].488 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]14 [/TD] [TD]Seattle [/TD] [TD]7-8 [/TD] [TD].504 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]15 [/TD] [TD]San Diego [/TD] [TD]7-8 [/TD] [TD].517 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]16 [/TD] [TD]Chicago [/TD] [TD]7-8 [/TD] [TD].533 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]17 [/TD] [TD]Tennessee [/TD] [TD]8-7 [/TD] [TD].467 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]18 [/TD] [TD]Dallas [/TD] [TD]8-7 [/TD] [TD].471 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19 [/TD] [TD]NY Jets [/TD] [TD]8-7 [/TD] [TD].492 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20 [/TD] [TD]Cincinnati (from Oakland) [/TD] [TD]8-7 [/TD] [TD].504 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
Something interesting....Miami is the ONLY Top 10 draft position team with a Positive Scoring differential of Points Scored vs. Points Allowed so far on the season. We are +14....all other top 10 draft position teams have given up more points then they have scored YTD.
Our updated draft position percentages are now projected (playoffstatus.com): Dolphins: 1-5 "Less than 1%" 6 5% ---------------------- 7 23% 8 43% 9 29% ---------------------- 10 "Less than 1%" Basically, we'll pick #7-9, with a slight chance at #6.
In addition, I think it showed that the "far superior" team was only that way b/c they had an elite QB. Miami had the better defense and the better running game. You might even argue that Miami had the better STs. The Pats had the better passing game. IMO you put Brady on the Dolphins and Miami is the far superior team and fighting for the #1 seed.
We were b/c everything was going right. Many QBs can produce great numbers like that, but NE was able to get more pressure in the second half and we didn't have a QB that could perform well enough under those circumstances.
And for the first time in Dolphins history, we have a 1000+ yard WR and RB the same season yet for the first time since the 60s we have 3 straight losing seasons....we're ****-ing tormented right now. Okay, so, a win won't hurt us that much? I mean if the Redskins win then a loss would help, but I'm assuming them and the Browns will lose. It would help if our game was at 4pm...so we would see the Redskins and Browns results. Redskins could pull an upset...Maybe the game finishes before ours. If Phins and Browns both finish 5-11 (unlikely), they'd definitely pick in front of us?
No, I believe we would pick in front of them based on SOS. I looked at the SOS in week 14 and theirs was way harder than our. If we finish with the same record as them, we will pick in front of them. I think this is that 5% chance that we pick 6th.
