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New Draft Order

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Mile High Fin, Nov 15, 2011.

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  1. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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  2. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    Link makes perfect sense to me, based on their projections. Although it has us 6th, we have the best odds of winding up with 7th.
     
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  3. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Its only odd cause its using a BEST GUESSTIMATE of the remaining schedule and guessing at Wins/Losses for each team to PROJECT the draft order vs. using actual games played and waiting for ACTUAL results to finalize the draft order.

    Once tonight's MNF game is final, we will be able to accurately say where we are in draft order with our 5-9 record thru 15 weeks...but until week 17 ends and all records are actually set to know SoS% and records its all a guess.
     
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  4. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    thats what I keep thinking, and forgetting they are using projections....I just believe it is odd that they project teams to win another game but dont know that for sure...like Jax, Minny, Carolina etc...
     
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  5. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    ...
     
  6. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    And be on the hook paying a large majority of that 50M guaranteed salary he has? No way....I dont go any higher than a 4th, especially seeing the whole league will now at that point they dont want them...
     
  7. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    First, it's my understanding that the Rams have the worst statistical odds of getting the 1st pick by a wide margin (between them, the colts, and Vikes). Not sure if that plays a part in many people not discussing them winding up with the 1st pick very much.

    Second, why would giving up a couple first round picks for Sam Bradford be a steal? He's done nothing in the NFL to show that he's worth multiple 1st round picks, let alone calling it a steal to get him for such a price. Would it be a steal to give up two first round picks for Colt McCoy or Christian Ponder?
     
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  8. finfaninilinois

    finfaninilinois Active Member

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    i hate saying this cause he is my favorite player but since Bess isnt utilized in this offense wouldnt it be smart to trade him in the offseason for a pick. we gain a xtra pick that could be used in a deal to move up to get a QB.

    thoughts

    apso who else could we do that with?
     
  9. Mile High Fin

    Mile High Fin New Member

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    Correct.
    According to playoffstatus.com today, the odds for the #1 overall pick are:
    Colts 97%
    Vikings 2%
    Rams 1%

    I don't think I want to spend very many brain cells talking about the Vikes or Rams having the #1 pick....
     
  10. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    No would love to keep him...he hasnt been putting up the numbers, but still you have to account for him...

    Everyone is probably going to want to kill me for saying it, but I want DeSean Jackson this offseason.....
     
  11. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    I will say, Indy is one more win away from throwing a very large monkey wrench into this draft thing...
     
  12. Mile High Fin

    Mile High Fin New Member

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    As of 12/19/11:

    According to playoffstatus.com, the final PROJECTED spot for the Dolphins would be #7.

    They're projecting right now as follows:

    1. Indianapolis 1-15 (.540)
    2. St Louis 2-14 (.590)
    3. Minnesota 3-13 (.560)
    4. Cleveland 4-12 (.530)
    5. Jacksonville 5-11 (.500)
    6. Buffalo 5-11 (.520)
    7. Miami 5-11 (.520)
    8. Tampa Bay 5-11 (.540)
    9. Washington 6-10 (.470)
    10. Carolina 6-10 (.510)
    11. Philadelphia 7-9 (.500)
    12. Kansas City 7-9 (.520)
    13. Arizona 8-8 (.470)
    13. Tennessee 8-8 (.470)
    14. Seattle 8-8 (.510)
    15. Oakland 8-8 (.510)
     
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  13. Mile High Fin

    Mile High Fin New Member

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    Another way to summarize the draft order is by TEAM (playoffstatus.com):

    Dolphins' odds at being at each draft position:

    1, 2, or 3 Impossible
    4 "Less than 1%"
    5 2%
    6 13%
    7 31%
    8 13%
    9 16%
    10 19%
    11 3%
    12 2%
    13 1%

    Realistically, #6 is our BEST CASE, and #10 is our WORST CASE.
    92% chance we'll be somewhere in that range.
     
  14. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    Get ready to part with some picks, if you want a QB this draft....
     
  15. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    So the worst we do is 12th. That's cool
     
  16. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    Houston is playing Indy this week....
     
  17. Mile High Fin

    Mile High Fin New Member

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    In general, we want all 4-5 win teams to WIN, and Colts/Rams/Vikings to LOSE.

    Specifically, this week (week 16), we need:

    Washington to beat Minnesota (if Wash loses this game, they'll leapfrog us)
    Tampa to beat Carolina (if Tampa goes 0-2 @Car @Atl, they'll leapfrog us)
    Buffalo to beat Denver
     
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  18. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO there will be good QB prospects available at the 12th pick. In fact, I expect that they will be better than any of the prospects outside of Newton in last year's draft. I wouldn't rule out trading up if we liked a particular prospect, but at this point we have no idea if there will be a need. I fully expect that the QB rankings that everybody is speculating on right now will fluctuate wildly by draft time and will vary widely from team to team. I can easily envision scenarios where every single QB prospect outside of Luck could go anywhere from #2 to #12.
     
  19. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    So you thinking what Barkley and/or RG slipping to 12? If they dont, isnt 12 high to take Weeden, Tannenhill etc?
     
  20. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Not by draft time. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Weedon or Tannehill impress at the SB, combine and/or pro days. You can pretty much guarantee that there will be some team that has Barkley as high as #2 (or even #1) and some other team that has him as the 5th best QB. At this point we can't even guess at which teams those are though.
     
  21. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    It's not that big of a deal trading a 2013 first is we want the guy. Make the move for Peyton and get the quarterback. Ironically the emergence of John Jerry has been a big help.
     
  22. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

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    Landry Jones cant go anywhere but up at this point.
    Assuming he declares, even though he still has things he has to work on.
     
  23. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    Ironically Barkley wears number 7 :shifty:
     
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  24. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    I hope he doesn't declare. I saw so so so many things he needs to improve upon. He has talent, but has a lot of things he needs to get better at such as reading defenses, going through progressions, etc.
     
  25. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

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    Ironically we havent had a good QB wear #7, ever.
     
  26. MAFishFan

    MAFishFan Team Tannehill

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    jones might be an option if he sits for a year or until he's ready...nothing wrong with letting a rook get some time on the bench, with that said, i still try like crazy to trade down to get barkley or rg3
     
  27. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If the season ended today (none of this projection stuff), we would be in the 9 hole. http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html



    1 Indianapolis 1-13 .536
    2 Minnesota 2-12 .567
    3 St. Louis 2-12 .589
    4 Jacksonville 4-10 .500
    5 Cleveland 4-10 .522
    6 Tampa Bay 4-10 .545
    7 Washington 5-9 .469
    8 Carolina 5-9 .504
    9 Miami 5-9 .518
    10 Buffalo 5-9 .522
    11 Philadelphia 6-8 .500
    12 Kansas City 6-8 .513
     
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  28. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    ...
     
  29. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    If we beat the Jets to end the yr, all of this is for naught, and I suspect we will beat them.

    Which will push us into the 10-14 range, which is one of the reasons why this is a bit premature GHead.
     
  30. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    Can you imagine :lol:? If the Colts get past Houston, there is a chance...
     
  31. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Not only are we muddled with 1st round selection, being tied with same record with all these others, hurts our 2-7 round slots as trade chips too.
     
  32. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    freaking Buffalo is going to sneak in front of Miami when this is all said and done...
     
  33. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    We are going to rotate in rounds 2-7 with all same record teams....that list could be very long as the next two weeks shake out...first round postion helps, but as far as trade up, each subsequent round pick could impact us if we slide back to the end of a given round based on all these teams with same record.
     
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  34. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

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    Rob Rang has us picking RGIII at 8.

    That team needs a defense more so than a QB.
     
  35. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO it will most likely depend on what happens in the Tenn/Houston game.
     
  36. Mile High Fin

    Mile High Fin New Member

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    UPDATED:
    Another way to summarize the draft order is by TEAM (playoffstatus.com):

    Dolphins' odds at being at each draft position:

    1, 2, or 3 Impossible
    4 "Less than 1%"
    5 1%
    ------------------
    6 13%
    7 32%
    8 12%
    9 15%
    10 19%
    ------------------
    11 4%
    12 2%
    13 1%

    Realistically, #6 is our BEST CASE, and #10 is our WORST CASE.
    91% chance we'll be somewhere in that range.
     
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  37. FinsAreLife

    FinsAreLife Well-Known Member

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    I dont see us beating the pats and I think we have a shot in the jets game. IF we even do that at 6-10 i think we get the 8th or 9th pick and are fine. Losing out may get us the 6th or 7th and winning out i dont think would put us lower than 11 or 12.
     
  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I really like that carolina and the redskins seem to be playing good ball right now..and I really like that our opponents {jets, pats} are playing for serious playoff implications.
     
  39. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    New Mock following Barkley staying @ USC announcement.....

    me no likey!!!! :angry:

    2012 FIRST-ROUND PROJECTION

    December 22, 2011
    * indicates underclassmen
    p indicates projected trade


    First round
    [TABLE="width: 524"]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]Team[/TD]
    [TD]Player[/TD]
    [TD]POS[/TD]
    [TD]School[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]1[/TD]
    [TD]Indianapolis [/TD]
    [TD]*Andrew Luck [/TD]
    [TD]QB[/TD]
    [TD]Stanford[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]2[/TD]
    [TD]Minnesota[/TD]
    [TD]*Matt Kalil [/TD]
    [TD]OT[/TD]
    [TD]Southern California [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]3[/TD]
    [TD]St. Louis [/TD]
    [TD]*Justin Blackmon[/TD]
    [TD]WR [/TD]
    [TD]Oklahoma State [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]4P[/TD]
    [TD]Washington (from Jacksonville)[/TD]
    [TD]*Robert Griffin[/TD]
    [TD]QB[/TD]
    [TD]Baylor[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]5 [/TD]
    [TD]Cleveland [/TD]
    [TD]*Trent Richardson[/TD]
    [TD]RB[/TD]
    [TD]Alabama[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]6[/TD]
    [TD]Tampa Bay [/TD]
    [TD]*Morris Claiborne [/TD]
    [TD]CB[/TD]
    [TD]LSU[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]7P[/TD]
    [TD]Jacksonville (from Washington)[/TD]
    [TD]Michael Floyd[/TD]
    [TD]WR [/TD]
    [TD]Notre Dame[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]8[/TD]
    [TD]Carolina[/TD]
    [TD]Devon Still[/TD]
    [TD]DT [/TD]
    [TD]Penn State[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]9 [/TD]
    [TD]Miami[/TD]
    [TD]Quinton Coples [/TD]
    [TD]DE
    [/TD]
    [TD]North Carolina[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]10[/TD]
    [TD]Buffalo [/TD]
    [TD]*Riley Reiff [/TD]
    [TD]OT [/TD]
    [TD]Iowa[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]11 [/TD]
    [TD]Philadelphia[/TD]
    [TD]*David DeCastro[/TD]
    [TD]OG[/TD]
    [TD]Stanford[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]12[/TD]
    [TD]Kansas City[/TD]
    [TD]*Jonathan Martin[/TD]
    [TD]OT [/TD]
    [TD]Stanford[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]13[/TD]
    [TD]Tennessee [/TD]
    [TD]*Alshon Jeffrey[/TD]
    [TD]WR [/TD]
    [TD]South Carolina[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]14[/TD]
    [TD]Arizona [/TD]
    [TD]Courtney Upshaw[/TD]
    [TD]LB[/TD]
    [TD]Alabama[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]15[/TD]
    [TD]Seattle[/TD]
    [TD]Kendall Wright[/TD]
    [TD]WR[/TD]
    [TD]Baylor[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]16[/TD]
    [TD]San Diego[/TD]
    [TD]*Dre Kirkpatrick[/TD]
    [TD]CB [/TD]
    [TD]Alabama[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]17[/TD]
    [TD]Cincinnati (from Oakland)[/TD]
    [TD]*Dontari Poe [/TD]
    [TD]DT [/TD]
    [TD]Memphis[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]18[/TD]
    [TD]NY Giants[/TD]
    [TD]Alfonzo Dennard[/TD]
    [TD]CB[/TD]
    [TD]Nebraska[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]19[/TD]
    [TD]Chicago[/TD]
    [TD]Zach Brown[/TD]
    [TD]LB [/TD]
    [TD]North Carolina[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]20[/TD]
    [TD]Cincinnati[/TD]
    [TD]Cordy Glenn[/TD]
    [TD]OG [/TD]
    [TD]Georgia[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
     
  40. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    That would blow, we'd miss Floyd, Coples is a beast, but Imo, we need a TD maker.
     
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